Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.
Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.
The two prat polka.
I remember it well, from the days when it was less politically correct.
Boerwar @ #1900 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:43 pm
Why stop there, perhaps Bronwyn Bishop could make it a 3 way…
Boerwar @ #1900 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:43 pm
Looks like a black or white issue!
It wasn’t our fault!!!
Faultless Greens go backwards!!!! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/25/greens-blame-labor-attacks-and-preference-deals-for-disappointing-victorian-election
Barney in Go Dau @ #1904 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:48 pm
Greens still got near 10%.
They’ll continue to be around to call out the Labor right neo-libs
Rex Douglas @ #1906 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:51 pm
Never mind the quantity, feel the seats.
At one stage last night the Greens had lost nearly 20% of their vote at the last election.
Has that changed?
Labor in Victoria was attacked relentlessly by the Tories, the Greens and the media.
Its vote went up and it was returned to government.
Maybe some Greens people need to have a good hard look in the mirror rather than blaming others.
Anyone know where Australia stands in this policy?
https://www.thenation.com/article/child-allowance-cory-booker-kamala-harris/
We seem to have a grab-bag of allowances so it is hard to compare apples with apples.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1904 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:48 pm
They had it coming!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrrz54UtkCc
Rossmcg @ #1909 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:55 pm
Dan Andrews was smart enough to adopt many Greens positions.
The Greens answer to the Gotterdammerung:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGs6TDeXo8E
Rex Douglas @ #1906 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 12:51 pm
Of course they will because they are faultless and it’s never about them.
It’s an interesting exercise to examine the Labor partisans reaction to the Andrews Govt win.
On the one hand they’re in raptures for Dans democratic socialist/environmental programs but on the other hand they’re anti-Green which has similar tendencies.
The first question that pops into the minds of a Greens when they meet a Labor person:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7M4thNT_EY
Rex Douglas @ #1915 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 5:01 pm
Winners are grinners. Rex can pleasure himself.
Rex Douglas @ #1915 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 1:01 pm
Someone has to examine the Greens, you and they deny there is an issue!!!
Oh how terribly sad 😀
‘The walls are closing in’: 2GB management wants Jones out
To cut to the chase, Alan Jones’s contract is up in the middle of next year, and current 2GB management does not want to renew it.
https://outline.com/e6emU9
.
https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/2000/1*akVOajSkjZ_ICGqkpGmaRA.jpeg
Rex
“”Andrew Wilkie will hopefully play a leading role in getting a proper federal ICAC up and going.””
Don’t let him bloody well anywhere near it!.
He will claim it’s all his idea!.
And while we are at it, don’t vote Green in the Senate vote ALP!.
poroti
Dan needs now to build a great big wall along the Murray. GET.IT.DONE.
poroti, No bangs, no stars, just a out with a whimper. Unnoticed.
1934pc @ #1920 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 5:07 pm
I trust Andrew Wilkie would lead a group that ensures a proper ICAC with teeth.
poroti @ #1919 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 1:06 pm
Can’t afford the legal costs! 🙂
And if you want to record a guess on the next Newspoll, I’ll continue to collate and I’ll post the full list of guesses after the poll is published.
This is a summary to date.
PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-11-25
PB mean: ALP 53.4 to 46.6 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 50
Late Riser @ #1925 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 1:17 pm
My prediction
No poll due to Vic election. 🙂
I am reluctant to say if the state election has any federal implications. For the federal election, I am still predicting a Labor victory, just not a terribly overwhelming one with them winning around 80-85 seats. Although there is going to be a increase in the cross-bench with centrist independents knocking off a few Liberal and National Party MP’s.
One of the interesting campaigning intersection for the Coalition is where immigration, islamic terrorism, foreign affairs, and ethnic communities intersect.
Now, Labor has something like 19 out of the 20 seats containing the highest proportions of ethnic voters. So, predictably, the Coalition has been quite cavalier about sticking it to migrants and so on and so forth.
IMO, the Coalition tacticians have been telling themselves that they need to stop the PHON preferences bleed, which is killing them in rural and regional seats, by pandering to the anti-immigration and anti-ethnic PHON voters. So the Coalition has a kennel full of anti-ethnic dog whistlers.
They had believed that they could do this AND still hold the fort in Victoria.
But there is a serious rub.
There are around 1.2 million people with Chinese ancestry in Australia. Aye.
And they are geographically distributed in different ways from other ethnic groups. Depending on the circumstances, there is no particular reason to think that they would not vote for the Coalition.
My hunch is that the Morrison Government made a bad electoral mistake in terms of the Victorian election when it chose to indiscriminately attack immigration AT THE SAME TIME as it was doing Yellow Peril by getting stuck into China at APEC.
This was interpreted by significant numbers of Victoria’s Chinese community as being a direct attack on THEM.
Apparently the redoubtable the Hon Mr Coleman, the Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs, and a person in the Morrison Government of whom you have never, ever heard, has been doing the rounds assuring Chinese residents that just because Morrison has been China bashing it does not mean that he means it.
No doubt the gizzards of the Chinese vote in Victoria will be of considerable interest to the back room mavens of all parties except, possibly, for the the Greens.
Rex Douglas @ #1921 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 5:08 pm
As long as you are on the other side, sweet!
@Boerwar
Criticism of the CCP regime in Beijing and it’s imperialist activities in Australia is not racist. I know plenty of Chinese people who share the same concerns as me.
Good!
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/powered-up-andrews-to-flex-newfound-muscle-20181125-p50i7u.html
‘Tristo says:
Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 5:31 pm
@Boerwar
Criticism of the CCP regime in Beijing and it’s imperialist activities in Australia is not racist. I know plenty of Chinese people who share the same concerns as me.’
I agree that the landscape is mixed in terms of our national interest. I also agree that there is no ‘Chinese vote’ in Australia and that there is a wide variety of electoral responses by Chinese voters.
I also believe that the Coalition is riven with a sort of gut racism that informs (or misinforms) much of what Coalitions do and say.
Late Riser
I’m going to risk not going with the PB median. I don’t think it has been a good week for Scumo. I think the ridicule is still filtering thtough. I also think that there has been a late surge in Vic and all else being equal this ought to fractionally affect the national figure..
If I could be precise I’d go for 53.6 but I can’t so..
Put me down for 54/46 Labor/Scum
late risers
Put me down for 53.5% and do so for every newspoll poll to the election. If you keep track of the cumulative error over the period, I think with that number I have a good chance of winning.
The polls don’t seem to record the serious swings; and when they do no-one seems to believe them.
Look at the Victoria polls 3% 3.5% and 4%. Actual swing 4.8%. If the polls were unbiased some should have come above 4.8. They didn’t.
Been phone banking for the first time in a while ( i hate it). The number of un-ansered calls, number of numbers with machines to screen calls is now quite large. I think we have got to the point where the sample is far from random.
I also suspect you can control your demographic by selecting your call time.
I am convinced the majority of the population do not follow politics, so why would they change there votes.
In short I am forming the view that the week to week results are a fiction.
53.5 is a seriously on the nose poll result, see no reason for them to get better, and no rational person could believe they could get worse.
Cud
I also went for 54/46 to Labor. Apart from ScumMo having a bad week, I still think the last 52/48 result was an outlier.
Some bits from Coorey in the AFR…
…the catastrophe that befell the Liberal Party in Victoria on Saturday shows that what may supposedly work north of the Tweed did not translate south of the Murray…
Rather than heed the lessons of Wentworth and dial it back a bit, the government disparaged these loyal voters as disgruntled, well-heeled freaks who flew helicopters to work and didn’t understand the common man. Climate change and renewable energy were boutique concerns…
Honest brokers from both sides estimate federal factors contributed between one and two points towards the six-point primary against the Liberals on swing on Saturday…
Labor ran ads featuring Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott for a reason. Its research showed they were negatives for the Liberal brand…
The brand damage caused by dumping Turnbull had three elements. First, small-l liberal voters liked him. Secondly, the aftermath of the coup highlighted internal unrest caused by a lack of female representation in the party and claims of bullying…
Third, all voters heard was that Turnbull was dumped because he was not right-wing enough. And that scares mainstream Liberal voters who are economically conservative but don’t lay awake at night terrified the gay couple down the street might get married. They do worry about climate change and some even like renewable energy.
“What [Tony] Abbott and his friends call the base are not the great bulk of our electoral base. The great bulk sent us a warning,” said one senior federal Liberal. “Young people hate us, women hate us.”…
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/victorian-election-voters-repudidate-the-liberal-partys-right-wing-20181125-h18bf7
Back in April
This is the crowd that attacked Labor for ‘scandals’ and the media harped about it.
I don’t like getting into the Labor Green wars but have a view on this occaision. The Greens are grumpy and blaming Labor, but they got themselves in this mess. Labor under Andrews had a strong policy program that dealt with three key Green issues (sustainable energy, public transport and gender equity). In fact on two of those issues, it could be argued that Labor was stronger than the Greens. Since Labor has always been stronger on protecting workers rights, this left little space for the Greens to differentiate themselves to progressive voters. They failed to do so.
In the campaign Labor did not attack the Greens much. Why bother? Green factions were already doing the job. Some Green candidates appeared poor choices. And Greens preferenced Labor lower than vice versa. So with Labor having won majority government, there is little reason for Labor to feel it must deal with the Greens. I am sure the Greens can rebuild, but they need to do so. They face a few wilderness years. They need new faces. Candidates that fail in other parties are replaced. Why should it be any different in the Greens?
Andrews took the same attitude to the Greens that he took to Murdoch and the shock jocks, with the same results.
Trump’s bullshitting big time again by the look of this.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-25/donald-trump-says-migrants-will-be-forced-to-wait-in-mexico/10552944
Socrates @ #1938 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 6:05 pm
An accurate summation
@Boerwar
I agree the Liberals were doing some racist dog-whistling when it came to campaigning on an legitimate issue. Hence why they got heavily punished in electorates with a high proportion of immigrants (particularly Chinese).
Come the federal election if Morrison is going to use a similar campaign, the Liberals would definitely lose Chisholm. Safer seats such as Menzies, Deakin, Aston and Casey would be under threat as well. Since Menzies and Deakin have big Chinese populations. In Sydney Reid and Banks would be lost and Bennelong under threat.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1926 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:19 pm
You may well be right. 🙂 The thought had occurred to me too. But after I missed a Newspoll due to confidence, the policy (makes it sound proper) now is to have-a-go-anyway. If it happens, it does. If not, well, it wudda-dun. 🙂
You’re down for a NULL.
zoomster @ #1940 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 6:08 pm
And Matthew Guy. Dan never mentioned his name in this campaign till this the victory speech.
They were all faux foes!
I think the greens are right to blame preference deals for why they lost seats in the Vic upper house.
On the current results a swing of 4% to them (instead of the 1% against) may of gotten them 2 seats instead of 1.
Yes they lost some votes but the preference deals are a much bigger reason why they lost so many seats.
Catprog @ #1946 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 6:30 pm
Please call someone who actually cares.
Rex
On a night when the Victorian voters moved heavily to the Progressive side the Greens lost 1.6% of their vote & that’s off a low base.. they may have lost 25% of their support…. a massive wake up call
It takes a special talent to lose votes when the tide is going your way.
Sceptic @ #1947 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 6:43 pm
When the Labor right dictate policy, the Greens prosper.
When Labor runs a democratic socialist/environmental agenda, the Greens suffer.
Rex Douglas @ #1949 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 6:50 pm
Same same!