Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.
For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.
Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.
The Curious History of Mr Bragg.
To create an opportunity for Mr Bragg, albeit without necessarily intending so to do, the Liberal Party Room sacked Mr Turnbull and a sacked Turnbull duly quits his seat.
Mr Bragg is well in the running to be pre-selected in Wentworth.
But Mr Bragg is persuaded to trade that for a winning place on the NSW Senate list, because Mr Morrison wants to install a female candidate in Wentworth to prove that the mass bullying and harrassment of Liberal women had not attended his rise to the Liberal equivalent of the Dalai Lama.
Then Morrison’s preferred female candidate is rolled by Sharma.
Meanwhile, Ms Nash is rolled by the High Court. Then, presumably to show that the Liberals have learned nothing and forgotten everything, her replacement, a Ms Hughes, is also rolled by the High Court.
Showing some sense of tactics, Gen Molan (ret) charges in and secures the high ground.
But, the upshot of this was that Molan’s position is tenuous because it was felt that Ms Hughes was owed the position as soon as she got her financial affairs into some sort of order consistent with the Constitution.
Now, to make there is enough space in the top two on the Senate list for Ms Hughes and Mr Bragg, the outflanked Gen Molan (ret) gets shunted to No 4 on the ticket. This means he gets to run around furiously during the election knowing that it is all for nowt. Gone. Totally fukt. Faced with defeat and ignominy, Gen Tough Guy Molan (ret) spits the dummy. He is no Napoleon.
So, Mr Turnbull is gone. Mr Morrison’s female candidate is gone. Sharma is gone. Ms Nash is gone. Ms Hughes was gone but has a ticket to get back on the Snouters Blue Bus. As does Mr Bragg.
Avid readers will have noted that Mr Bragg got there because of his ability to produce and sell good policy.
Other avid readers would be well aware of Mr Bragg’s huge contribution to the public interest thus far in his career.
His achievements are without equal, and equally are they without number.
Oh, and the lesson for the day: any NSW Liberal wannabe would be well-advised not to get between Mr Bragg and a seat.
BW, extremely fair summary, and consistent with known facts.
Bevan Shields
Prof Higgins
Eisenhower’s single biggest strategic mistake by far was to give Monty the petrol and his Bridge too Far instead of giving Patton the petrol.
Not only was Monty’s effort a huge failure, there was an even bigger opportunity cost.
Nicholas
I will say this for Ms Kelton.
She acknowledges that inflation will be a direct outcome.
She assures us that this will be ‘managed’.
She does not acknowledge that another direct outcome will be that any widow who has saved her mite will watch it dissolve to nothingness.
Logic the only thing corrupt here
GERARD HENDERSON
Integrity commissions have blackened the reputations and destroyed the careers of innocent people. Canberra doesn’t need one.
Utter shite from Henderson only because Labor are pushing it.
l
‘I think the very message is that we all need to work together collaboratively’
I think Hunt means that they form a big circle and everyone sticks a knife into the back of the person in front of them?
How Abbott is the best opposition leader in government
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/step-aside-bill-shorten-tony-abbott-is-the-best-opposition-leader-in-parliament,12135
Nine News understands the PM and Treasurer will meet with Victorian MPs tomorrow morning to talk about the Vic election result.
(I hope there are some tasty pastries to lift the mood in that room) #auspol #VicVotes @9NewsAUS
sd
The NSW ICAC thingie did indeed destroy the careers of over a dozen Liberal MPs for being corrupt.
Boerwar
Hunt is untrustworthy in every way.
He’s one of those ‘sons of the father’ who has too high an opinion of his own ability.
sprocket_
What advice could Morrison possibly give them? Thoughts and prayers???
Maybe Mr Morrison is going to try to get them to speak in tongues to see if that works any better?
BW
Henderson would probably say they were the innocent ones.
Scotty wants to know if bringing the blue bus down to Melbourne will turn things around?
steve davis
But steve. Look at the irrefutable reason for not having one…………….. according to Gerard 😆
.
“In the 1970s and 80s I spent a decade working as a government staff member, an opposition staff member and a commonwealth public servant.
I never noticed corruption at the national level of Australian politics during the time of Coalition or Labor governments.”
https://outline.com/uny8kh
The government world according to Henderson.What a joke.
‘steve davis says:
Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 3:46 pm
BW
Henderson would probably say they were the innocent ones.’
They were nearly all done for taking property developer money against the rules. How innocent is that?
The Libs would be shitting their pants over a Federal ICAC, and if they rail against it,they will look as if they are the ones who are hiding something.
Speaking of team work.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/25/gladys-berejiklian-says-scott-morrison-not-needed-in-nsw-election-campaign
Boerwar,
Cornelius Ryan’s history and Richard Attenborough’s film constitute sobering chronicles of Market Garden’s futility.
One of Hemingway’s bestsellers, ‘Across the River and into the Trees’ (1950) deals with another unnecessary waste of Allied casualties in the Hurtgen Forest.
Morrison’s Bus has some work to do in Victoria. Fortunately, it is fully prepped and should lead to some stunning improvements:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFHBfFAmcbc
‘Prof. Higgins says:
Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 4:00 pm
Boerwar,
Cornelius Ryan’s history and Richard Attenborough’s film constitute sobering chronicles of Market Garden’s futility.’
One of the truly painful moments in my life came during a social meeting in our home. I am not sure how the conversation got there but one of the women recounted what had happened to her family which lived in Arnhem during the Bridge too far. She was a teenager at the time. They were huddled in their cellar when a shell exploded there in. She was weeping as she listed the deaths and the injuries in the family.
I can’t exactly recall when this occurred but it was probably some time in the eighties or nineties.
Why can’t the old out-of-touch warhorse Jim Molan just get out of the way…
Rex Douglas @ #1874 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:05 pm
He says the same thing about you, apparently.
Late Riser @ #1870 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 12:00 pm
But he’s not from outside NSW!!!! 🙂
steve davis @ #1873 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 3:57 pm
Andrew Wilkie will hopefully play a leading role in getting a proper federal ICAC up and going.
Prof H, from Wiki:
‘Dutch records suggest that at least 453 civilians died during the battle, either as a result of Allied bombing on the first day or during the subsequent fighting.[208] After the battle, the residents of Arnhem and its surrounding towns and villages were forcibly evicted from their homes, allowing the Germans to turn the north bank of the Rhine into a heavily defended line.[212] Residents were not allowed to return home without a permit and most did not return until after the war.[212] The Dutch homes were then systematically looted, with the spoils being sent to bombing victims in Germany.[213] The Germans continued to fight Allied forces on the plains between Arnhem and Nijmegen, and the bridge that the 1st Airborne had fought so hard for was eventually destroyed by the Allies to deny German forces its use. On 7 October, it was bombed and destroyed by Martin B-26 Marauders of 344th Bomb Group, USAAF.[212] The buildings of Arnhem were heavily shelled by the Allies over the next few months and suffered further when the city was eventually liberated in April 1945.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Arnhem
Greensborough Growler @ #1879 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:07 pm
You defending the old coot ?
BiGD
Good pick up.
Apparently Morrison is consulting the Baldric oeuvre for some fresher and betterer ideas.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 4:05 pm
Why can’t the old out-of-touch warhorse Jim Molan just get out of the way
The problem with Molan is not his age. His problems are his reactionary views and his alignment with Abbott. Of course, he is now getting out of the way. He has abdicated his role as a Lib voice.
Rex Douglas @ #1879 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:10 pm
I’d never defend you Rex. You are high quality dickhead!
So our illustrious Federal treasurer, he who parrots the shock jock from Sydney that a Labor Government will see house prices collapse and rents go sky high, is going to review the results for his Party in Victoria
Perhaps a look in the mirror?
Or a look at the National statistics – and the ASX
Or a look at the Cash Rate
Or, just perhaps, listen to the RBA Governor
Or, maybe, appoint a Treasury Secretary who is not a party political hack so fair and fearless advice is being given to government
Or perhaps Frydenberg should just resign
I understand from senior Liberal Party identities (albeit anti Kroger so anti Frydenberg because as we saw last night Frydenberg is of the Kroger faction) that Frydenberg is vunerable on Party internal polling
Then again, who isn’t?
briefly @ #1881 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:15 pm
Molan’s problem is he is innumerate!
briefly @ #1885 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:15 pm
He’s from an outdated era.
If he’s reading this I invite you Jim to come onto PB, perhaps join the Informal Party and live out your days arguing with me. 🙂
Greensborough Growler @ #1886 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:15 pm
That’s probably the only thing the old fossil Molan could come up with too.
“I have never relied on anyone outside NSW and don’t intend to start now”
So where is the Shire our bumbling, bumptious Borrison hails from?
Barney in Go Dau @ #1876 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 3:07 pm
I had the exact same thought.
I could not bring myself to believe posters a few months back about the internal squabbles (shambles) of the Liberal party. “Optimists”, I thought. I was wrong to doubt.
Rex Douglas @ #1885 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 12:17 pm
It would be an intellectually even contest!
Had Labor done worse, there would have been some incentive for them to attempt to reform group voting tickets, but this is now unlikely to happen.
Surely they should still make the reform!?
https://theconversation.com/coalition-pares-back-losses-in-late-counting-as-predicted-chaos-eventuates-in-upper-house-107516
Molan has reactionary views. These are not necessarily typical of his age or his career. Consider his peer:
Lieutenant General David Lindsay Morrison AO (born 24 May 1956) is a retired senior officer of the Australian Army. He served as Chief of Army from June 2011 until his retirement in May 2015. He was named Australian of the Year for 2016.
David Morrison – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Morrison
Morrison is a Republican, a campaigner for ME, a voice for indigenous Constitutional recognition….and a soldier who led reform of the military.
Rex Douglas @ #1886 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:20 pm
Molan served with distinction in our military forces and has achieved things with his life.
You, not so much!
“The Libs would be shitting their pants over a Federal ICAC, and if they rail against it,they will look as if they are the ones who are hiding something.”
And all Labor need do is remind them of this..
“Scott Morrison voted against the banking royal commission 26 times,”
It should be another bloodbath
NSW is putting together a Border Force to stop Morrison from leaving the Canberra Bubble and entering NSW.
‘I don’t want him
you can have him
he’s too prat for me,’
sang Ms Berejklian.
Boerwar @ #1894 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:32 pm
Send him to Nauru!
Boerwar @ #1894 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 12:32 pm
Queanbeyan will be grateful! 🙂
I’ve just surfaced after an exhilarating day on the booths in one of the strongest Nationals seats in the State (even though the son-in law of a national party federal minister held it for 3 terms, as an independent, and helped kick Kennet out).
Three observations.
1. The local Nats don’t like the Libs, and deplore Barnaby J. This is specially true of the Female Nats.
2. The only party whose HTV was consistently declined were the Greens.
3. If you have a Labor govt that keeps its promises, builds infrastructure, funds hospitals, promotes renewable energy, & supports Safe schools, safe drug injection rooms, Voluntary Euthanasia, etc etc Then the Greens’ raison d’etre disappears.
I’m urging all my Green friends to get their hands dirty by getting down and doing something, and not obstructing those who are working.
Boerwar @ #1898 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:32 pm
The Liberal Party fracture is almost complete.
History in the making… by design.
This is Abbott’s current mission in life… and he will succeed in leaving an unforgettable legacy.
Gippslander @ #1901 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 4:38 pm
I see that an Aussie Battler from out your way made it into the upper house.
Any insight into his leanings…?
It looks like Mundine and Molan are going to have to duke it out for the LibDem Senate spot.