BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor

Ipsos and Essential’s 52-48 results have knocked nearly a full point off Labor’s lead in the BludgerTrack aggregate, although that still leaves plenty to spare.

Two much better results for the Coalition this week, from Ipsos and Essential Research, have knocked 0.8% off Labor’s still commanding two-party lead on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. This converts into three gains on the seat projection, being one apiece in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.

For those playing particularly close attention, I am not making use here of The West Australian’s local poll by unheralded market research outfit Painted Dog Research, as I have no benchmark for calculating bias adjustments for them. In any case, it was a small sample poll that particularly low primary votes for both major parties. I have, however, included it in the archive of poll results you can find with a bit of digging under the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page.

Bill Shorten maintains a steady upward trend on the leadership ratings, on which I’m still not producing a result for Scott Morrison – this will require a fair bit of tinkering that I won’t have time for until the poll drought over new year. Full results, as always, on the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,091 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.9-46.1 to Labor”

Comments Page 36 of 42
1 … 35 36 37 … 42

  1. The more time there is until the election, the greater the chances that independents will be able to organise against Liberals in safe seats. It takes time and money to run a campaign, especially as a challenger. The longer they delay, the more likely it is that Independents will rise against them. Even so, they will be tempted.

    If this were to happen, the Liberals would likely be obliterated in the half-Senate-only election. If voters felt they were being manipulated, the LNP could struggle to elect more than a single Senator in any State and would achieve at best just 2.

    It would also be an early concession of inevitable defeat. They would be crazy to try it. Just crazy. They would be asking for humiliation not once but twice.

  8. Barney in Go Dau
    says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 11:58 am
    Labor targets in Victoria.

    Henderson quote from the article

    “I think we’re going to see a very, very different set of circumstances [in the federal election], underpinned by the fact that Victorians do not like Bill Shorten.”

    What is that famous Einstein quote again?
    “If at first you don’t succeed, do the same thing over and over until you get an idea” 🙂

  9. lizzie @ #1600 Sunday, November 25th, 2018 – 7:43 am

    One thing stood out for me as I watched last night.

    Dan Andrews has been chipped at by the ABC for “refusing to mention Guy’s name”. All his responses to Q were positive and looked to the future.

    Compare this to both Fed and State Libs, who couldn’t (can’t) resist carping and snarling at Labor in every response, even if irrelevant. Frydenberg is a particularly nasty example, but there are many others.

    Labor is focussed on the voters. L-NP are focussed on the politicians. Labor understands that politics isn’t a spectator sport.

  12. nath, I would not expect you to agree with me, in the same way that the reactionaries in the Liberal Party do not accept their critics.

    But this is ok. The numbers will do the talking.

    In the same way as voters in Victoria chose “strong, stable majority government” yesterday, they will do so again in the federal election. They will eschew the minor voices. Andrews nailed it. Shorten will do the same.

  13. “I think we’re going to see a very, very different set of circumstances [in the federal election], underpinned by the fact that Victorians do not like Bill Shorten.”

    I can’t wait to see the smug smirk wiped off that particular Liberal lady’s face in Corangamite come the election.

  14. ScoMo not needed in NSW: Premier

    11:45AM ANDREW CLENNELL
    As the Liberal party reels from Victoria’s disaster election result, the NSW Premier says she won’t be relying on him to help her win.

  16. Late Riser

    Please put me down for Newspoll 54/46 to Labor. I think the 52/48 result was an outlier.

    Question
    “I think it’s safe to say the ALP have a notional 70 of the 151 seats, so need 6. On Insiders they said Victoria has 4 federal seats that are very flippable, and a further 4 that may be in play.”

    Thanks. That is kind of my point. Labor is on 70 + 2 (redistribution) + 4 (Melbourne) = 76 = majority government.

    So the point is, after the Danslide, saving Qld is not enough for the LNP. They need to save Victoria too, and do not appear to have any electable means to do so.

  18. If in 2002 anyone had said that the Greens would hold 3 inner city seats and challenge for 2 others in 2018 people would have said that person was possibly mad. It’s a very tough road for a minor party, but this ALP tide will recede. The Greens need to keep some representation and await more fortuitous times in the LA. The LC needs reform, or if not, greater effort is needed in meeting the quota/arrangements with minor parties. The Greens also hold 3 lower house seats in NSW. The Rise of the Greens is not over, not by a long shot.

  19. According to the Sydney News ltd and Sky After Dark mob, Dutton *is* the solution!

    I say they should give it a go.

    Some on the right realise that Dutton is a liability, and would be even less popular. So the response is the Zanetti cartoon, clearly the voters must be wrong.

  23. ‘If in 2002 anyone had said that the Greens would hold 3 inner city seats and challenge for 2 others in 2018 people would have said that person was possibly mad…;’

    Given that the Greens make predictions of this scale in the lead up to almost any election, I’m happy to agree with you.

  24. Listening to other posters comments on the Liberals right still clinging to their beliefs, I can but hope they cling to them till election day.

    May I suggest some good memes for Labor to run would be :

    “the Liberal religious conservatives didn’t have the ticker to stick to their plan (and core values) and elect Dutton leader, or go back to Abbott. So the voters deserted them.”

    “Victorian Liberals wanting to replace Kroger are just jealous wannabes using the state fallout from a Federal issue to advance their own careers.”

    “Shorten has taken Labor to the right to try to counter ScumMo’s strength with the majority of right leaning Australian voters. If the Liberals go back to the centre now they are just falling for the spin Labor has put out to the left wing biased media.”

    So tempting to put these on Andrew Bolt’s blog under a pseudonym like “Concerned Conservative”. Have a good day all.

  25. I’m interested how the Victorian Legislative Council mirrors the Federal Senate with 8 districts without generating “unrepresentative swill” caused by the egregious population disparity between, say, Tasmania and NSW.

    Former Minister Conroy last night talked about the “preference whisperer” who simply has persuaded the Victorian micro parties to eschew preferencing any of the 4 majors. Purportedly the impact will be to reduce the Greens representation in the L.C. from 5 seats out of 40 down to a single one. Currently, the V.E.C. tally room has the Greens on 9.22% of the L.C. votes.

    Must admit that the Queensland unicameral option has some appeal, all the more so when the likes of Pauline Hanson get richly rewarded to bloviate their bigotry.

  28. Socrates at 12:28 pm
    So the point is, after the Danslide, saving Qld is not enough for the LNP. They need to save Victoria too, and do not appear to have any electable means to do so.

    I’m not convinced VIC and QLD are going in different directions anyway.

  29. nath says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 12:28 pm

    If in 2002 anyone had said that the Greens would hold 3 inner city seats and challenge for 2 others in 2018 people would have said that person was possibly mad.

    The business model that enabled the Gs to grow in the past requires them to attack Labor. This worked for a while. However, it is now costing them support. Their strategy is self-cannibalising.

    You could reflect on your own experience as a bludger to see the point in action. You campaign against Labor. Rather than attracting new support, this campaign alienates the very people you may hope to enlist. It is self-defeating. Furthermore, antagonism to Labor scratches the skin of some past-G voters. It irritates them because they are basically, when-all-boiled-down, Labor positive. So anti-Labor campaigning induces a response among G-affiliated voters. We have seen – in Batman and in the Victorian State election – that some of these G-affiliated voters are shifting back to Labor.

    The Gs campaign against themselves. This is completely OK with me. The Liberals also campaign against themselves. They did so in Victoria with their race-baiting. The Liberals have so badly injured their reputations in Victoria that their standing will not recover until Dutton, Abbott, Sukkar, Guy and the rest have left the public domain. They are the the authors of insults. DiNatali is also the public face of insult.

  30. Socrates,
    Your first paragraph at 12.36 pm is in sync with the Labor bloke on ‘The Insiders’ this morning who expressed a wish that the Liberals keep Michael Kroger in charge of the party’s structure.

  31. “ScoMo not needed in NSW: Premier”

    Maybe Gladys could rush through special legislation to remove Morrison’s NSW citizenship and not let him back in.

  33. Question says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 12:43 pm
    Socrates at 12:28 pm
    So the point is, after the Danslide, saving Qld is not enough for the LNP. They need to save Victoria too, and do not appear to have any electable means to do so.

    I’m not convinced VIC and QLD are going in different directions anyway.

    Morrison’s bus-a-thon was basically a calculated insult to all Queensland. He has degraded his currency. The LNP make a habit of treating us all like we are idiots. Their default campaign is to insult us. They will get smashed in QLD too.

  34. Briefly

    You campaign against Labor. Rather than attracting new support, this campaign alienates the very people you may hope to enlist. It is self-defeating.

    ____________________________________

    You are being extremely generous in what you ascribe is the purpose of those posts. Frankly, I see them as mainly the sport of an intelligent but totally bored individual who likes baiting us. On that basis we continue to get the behaviour we reward.

  39. TPOF says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 12:59 pm

    Briefly

    You campaign against Labor. Rather than attracting new support, this campaign alienates the very people you may hope to enlist. It is self-defeating.

    ____________________________________

    You are being extremely generous in what you ascribe is the purpose of those posts. Frankly, I see them as mainly the sport of an intelligent but totally bored individual who likes baiting us. On that basis we continue to get the behaviour we reward.
    _______________
    I just speculate on politics as I see it. No different from anyone else here. Except that I have ultra high standards. It’s not my fault that Bill Shorten has not laid out one policy in relation to social justice. Hopefully they will do so in government. I don’t have high hopes. Andrews is another matter, his euthanasia legislation and many of the things he has done I approve of. Which is why the ALP got all the Greens preferences.

  40. Major General 5 star Brigadier Admiral Moylan (retired) has withdrawn from his mission to appear on tomorrow nights QandA.

    ABC received notification that Major General 5 star Brigadier Admiral Moylan (retired) has stated that he is now unable to defend the current Liberal Organisation.

    Military grade dummy spit.

  41. Good afternoon all,

    Moylan is a Tony Abbott right wing factional warrior.

    He has been shafted by a factional stitch up with Alex Hawke right in the middle of it.

    Abbott and co will not be happy. How Abbott reacts will be very interesting.

    Cheers.

  43. Re. Molan, he hasn’t been dumped just dropped to 3rd (or 4th coalition spot).
    Also isn’t Q&A about ideas and discussion, it isn’t always about ‘defending your party’.

  46. John Reidy

    Also isn’t Q&A about ideas and discussion, it isn’t always about ‘defending your party’.

    ____________________________________

    It’s the problem with so many conservatives, especially conservative politicians, on the program. They simply see this as an opportunity to market their side, rather than having a cogent discussion.

  47. TPOF says:
    Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 12:59 pm
    Briefly

    You campaign against Labor. Rather than attracting new support, this campaign alienates the very people you may hope to enlist. It is self-defeating.

    ____________________________________

    You are being extremely generous in what you ascribe is the purpose of those posts. Frankly, I see them as mainly the sport of an intelligent but totally bored individual who likes baiting us. On that basis we continue to get the behaviour we reward.

    Yes, there is that too!

    A lot of what passes for politics is no more than trolling. I reckon we can see the Victorian results as counter-trolling by voters, who really dislike being treated like they’re idiots.

    The nath-troll is a 2-d illustration of the ultimate futility of baiting. In the end, it drives resentment.

  48. Was just reading the article on the ANZAC myth and this caught my eye :

    The hopeless, mindless, arrogant slaughter on the Western Front in France and Belgium, incomprehensible to Bean, but not to the Australian soldier Edgar Rule, or British soldiers Wilfred Owen and Robert Graves, saw him reinforce his ANZAC myth following the mindless slaughter of 23,000 Australian troops at Pozieres in mid 1916 for a gain of 3,000 metres. Bean tried to describe it, but he wasn’t emotionally or culturally equipped to do it.

    My grandfather and his brother were both at Pozieres. Grandpa returned with shellshock and his brother returned wounded.
    23,000 dead. Makes you grateful and incredibly disgusted that politicians still have no problems bending over to the US and handing them the ky jelly.

    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/the-anzacs-ransacked-by-the-right,12128

  49. briefly
    The nath-troll is a 2-d illustration of the ultimate futility of baiting. In the end, it drives resentment.
    _____________________
    that’s not very nice briefly, especially since I have been complimentary of much of your non-political stuff. I am slightly wounded.

  50. I met this morning someone who knew Mr Abbott as a young boy. She had played with Abbott. Her Auntie and Tony’s Mum were friends.
    What was he like?
    Well, did I get it chapter and verse!
    I can’t repeat any of it at all, because it was ALL defamatory.
    But, to sum it all up, the character of Abbott the Man was fully formed in Abbott the young boy.

Comments Page 36 of 42
1 … 35 36 37 … 42

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *