Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another national poll finds a narrowing in Labor’s lead, but there’s less encouraging news for the government out of Western Australia.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.

The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).

There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 23 of 25
1 22 23 24 25
  1. For those of you who may have missed it, here is an article about what is apparently Labor’s wonderful new energy policy …

    https://www.greenpeace.org.au/blog/neg-mechanism/

    But it turns out that it’s not just the target that’s bad. The NEG mechanism itself – the nuts and bolts design of how the system is meant to work – is also a disaster.

    Last week, the director of the Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Professor Bruce Mountain, published a 15 page analysis of the NEG mechanism as outlined by the Energy Security Board (ESB).

    Here’s a summary of what he found (spoiler: it’s not good).

    I won’t spoil the punchline. Oh wait … yes I will …

    The fiendishly complicated nature of the NEG’s design means that it takes some effort to get to grips with it. But when you do, it’s crystal clear that it’s not just the emissions target that is a problem. The NEG mechanism is so flawed as to be close to useless.

    The NEG is like a sports car that is speed limited to 50 kmh, but whose engine is so badly made anyway that you can’t be sure it will even start.

    And Labor is seriously expecting the Liberal’s to vote against this?

    This is just madness 🙁

  2. yabba @ #1065 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:54 pm

    I have just jumped on, and so I don’t know whether therehas been any comment on the ‘grand mufti’, and the ‘uncovered meat’ story.

    Several things should be noted. Taj El-Din Hamid Hilaly never represented all Australian Muslims. He was head of Lakemba mosque, in inner western Sydney. After the remarks he made in a sermon in October 2006 became public, he was generally condemned by islamic leaders, and he resigned from all public positions in June 2007. He had already become notorious for holocaust denial, and support for the perpetrators of 9/11 in a speech given in Lebanon. Things have moved on a very long way since then.

    Yeah but…why let facts get in the way of a good smear/fear campaign?

  3. Bemused stepped on more than a few toes here, not just female ones.

    As a frequent target for his crazy allegations, conspiracy theories and freebooting character assessments, I had as much cause as anyone to cheer his seeing-off by WB.

    Yet, by the time he got boned, either my skin had thickened, or I had mellowed enough to see the other side of the coin: not so much accepting it… more like not letting it get too far under my skin. I began to appreciate many of Bemused’s contributions. And where I couldn’t appreciate them, I was able to ignore them.

    For Bemused’s part, I’m sure he felt the same about my contributions: tolerable in small doses, as long as we didn’t go after one another too nastily.

    The secret, I discovered, is not to take things too seriously. It’s only a blog.

  4. PB has become hatred of Migration, even though Australia is built on and relies on (because where we are located in the world).

    Even though Labor condemns what ScoMo has done.

  5. P1, your Greenpeace spam quotes provided precisely zero arguments against the efficacy of the neg – just pure rhetoric. You are aware of this surely?

    For those of us that don’t just take Greenpeace propaganda as gospel, what exactly is so rotten about the neg mechanism?

    I’m sure the neg is sub ideal in a policy purity sense but is precisely the path labor should be taking balancing policy outcome with political and the practical

  6. P1,

    You know what is going to unleash a wave of investment in renewables?

    Policy certainty.

    Any policy will do (well, almost).

  7. Bevan Shields
    ‏Verified account @BevanShields
    3h3 hours ago

    Bit of Tony Abbott in the news today. If you’re keen, here’s my lengthy look at the battle underway to end his 25-year political career https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-battle-is-underway-to-end-tony-abbott-s-25-year-political-career-20180918-p504eq.html … #auspol

    rob harris
    ‏Verified account @rharris334
    15h15 hours ago

    Australia joins United States, Hungary and Austria in rejecting new UN refugee pact
    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/australia-to-back-out-of-unpact-urging-world-to-do-more-for-refugees/news-story/daccd0eadbfa4e0e123193e76a25f82b

  8. Australia needs an energy policy; getting coal and gas fired stations out of the mix is no longer an issue. The coal station are at the end of their life, wind, solar and water is a cheaper replacement. The NEG will do and the NEG will be difficult for the ignorant to attack. The greens and the right wing nutters will be there hand in hand but they will be nothing more that shout into the wind heard by a few.

  9. E. G. Theodore @ #22367 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    Rhwombat

    Further to medical factions (Melbourne) versus fiefdoms (Sydney), it seems to me that the former is both more practical (as evidenced by the truce you report) and even somewhat defensible to the extent it is based on genuine differences in philosophy, whereas the latter is by definition irresolvable as well as indefensible (being based on geography and history without reference to medicine).

    If so, then the situation in Sydney is in fact a far bigger scandal than the media’s usual suspects (e.g. ‘underdosing’) in relation to medicine.

    Agreed, but it would be a mistake to equate Oncology with the rest of Medicine – or geographically tiny Victoria with much larger NSW. The Vics operate a more patriarchal system, much more tolerant of structural inequity than NSW. The corruption and unquestioned privilege seems, to me, greater in Victoria than it did in the relatively impoverished Western and Southern Suburbs of Sydney and Newcastle – where I trained and practiced. The model of Academic Medicine in Sydney when I was trained was based on Sydney (“The Rum Hospital”AKA Macquarie St) , RPA (“God’s Own”AKA “sorry we shot a Scion”), St Vincents (“Thank Yahweh, The Pope and Kerry Packer”) and Royal North Shore (AKA The Country Club). Then Gough Whitlam built Westmead and blew the old Rum Corps apart. Royal Newcastle was build by the coal miners and BHP, so had serious street cred for much longer.

    BTW: the “underdosing” “scandal” was a pure political hit completely unrelated to clinical outcome.

  10. Well, so some more men commenting about how it’s not so bad when another man makes a point of abusing women on a blog. It’s ‘only’ a blog. 🙄
    *sigh*

  11. Roger @ #1109 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 9:42 pm

    I’m sure the neg is sub ideal in a policy purity sense but is precisely the path labor should be taking balancing policy outcome with political and the practical

    Why? The NEG was specifically designed to placate the global warming deniers in the Liberal party. It has no other purpose.

    Don’t you think Labor should aspire to do better than that?

  12. C@tmomma
    says:
    Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 9:56 pm
    Well, so some more men commenting about how it’s not so bad when another man makes a point of abusing women on a blog. It’s ‘only’ a blog.
    *sigh*
    ______________________________
    People have assumed gender on here, no one knows for sure. How do we know you are female? Just by taking someone’s word for it?

  13. Libertarian Unionist @ #1111 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 9:47 pm

    P1,

    You know what is going to unleash a wave of investment in renewables?

    Policy certainty.

    Any policy will do (well, almost).

    I can agree with that. But surely a good policy would be better than a bad one?

    Why do we have to adopt a policy that was specifically designed to fail?

    It’s not as if we have a lot of time left to get this right! 🙁

  14. Zoidlord @ #1110 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Katie Martin
    ‏Verified account @katie_martin_fx
    16m16 minutes ago

    Somehow, this is the first I’ve heard of the ‘Iraqi Dinar Scam’. It’s absolutely snooker loopy
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fans-sink-savings-into-iraqi-dinar-scam

    Is that still going? The article states its been around since 2012, but I recall it, or at least something very similar going back to when Iraq was invaded.

  15. There is no reason the allegations against Hayne should not be fully reported so long as they reported accurately.

    99.99976% of us won’t be on the jury who most likely will be properly instructed as to their role and very likely follow their instructions.

  16. frednk @ #1113 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 9:48 pm

    Australia needs an energy policy; getting coal and gas fired stations out of the mix is no longer an issue. The coal station are at the end of their life, wind, solar and water is a cheaper replacement. The NEG will do and the NEG will be difficult for the ignorant to attack. The greens and the right wing nutters will be there hand in hand but they will be nothing more that shout into the wind heard by a few.

    We must have an energy policy.

    The NEG is an energy policy.

    Therefore, we must have the NEG.

  17. Confessions @ #1114 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 6:49 pm

    Tom @ #1106 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    Darn (AnonBlock)
    Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 9:26 pm

    Absolutely agree. PB has become tribal and lacks the diversity it once had.

    There are fewer commenters which is probably why it feels that way to you.

    Indeed. Darn should’ve been around in the “good old days” when the night-shift was dominated by people such as Frank Calabrese, gusface, RON, and many others, including RWers such as Candles and Truthy. And yes, Bemused as well

    These days PB resembles a Royal Garden Party compared to those times.

  18. Indeed. Darn should’ve been around in the “good old days” when the night-shift was dominated by people such as Frank Calabrese, gusface, RON, and many others, including RWers such as Candles and Truthy.

    And vera, Psephos, Chris Curtis, jaundiced view, Poss, Grog, blue_green, Space Kidette, OPT, BH, and the list goes on.

  19. Shorten Suite

    ‏Verified account @Shorten_Suite
    9h9 hours ago

    Few weeks ago, the Liberals were telling you Turnbull was the best person to lead the country.

    Now they don’t even want him in the party.

    #auspol

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 8:37 pm

    A very good point was made today, by I think it was Roman Quaedvlieg, that with the ramp up in Anti Muslim rhetoric by Matthew Guy, Scott Morrison and, Headkicker-In-Chief, Peter Dutton, they may very well be contributing to the Anti Australian rhetoric of Islamic Extremists in Indonesia, and thus, another Bali Bombing becomes that much more likely as a result.

    In fact it could be argued that the Howard government was responsible for the deaths of some of the Australians killed in the Bali bombing of October 2002. In the months before the bombing, Howard repeatedly refused to rule out joining the United States in an invasion of Iraq. He must have known that his close relationship with George Bush would put Australians in peril. Eighty eight of them died violently in Bali a few months after Howard met with Bush at the White House.

    When he visited Washington in that northern summer of 2002, did Howard give Bush the equivalent of “all the way with LBJ?” Did he explain that he could not give this assurance publicly until the last moment and that he would continue to insist that he had made no decision for the next nine months until the balloon went up? Perhaps before he dies he might answer these questions truthfully and give the full details of his decision to commit Australia to war in Iraq.

    As reported by Wikipedia, “a week after the blasts, Arab satellite channel Al-Jazeera put to air an audio-cassette purportedly carrying a recorded voice message from Osama Bin Laden saying that the Bali bombings were in retaliation for support of the United States’ war on terror and Australia’s role in the liberation of East Timor.”

    By continuing not to rule out going to war in Iraq, Howard ignored the possibility that this posture, in the post-9/11 circumstances of the time, made Australia a target for terrorists. Any responsible government should have asked: ‘what is the place offshore with the largest concentration of Australians, in an unsuspecting environment, vulnerable to terrorism.” Even without the presence of Indonesian Islamist groups, the answer was obvious. Any responsible government would have issued mandatory travel advisories through airlines and travel agents, to all Australians headed for Bali. Apparently no such advisories were issued. If they had been, many of those who died in Bali would not have gone there.

    Recognizing the political impact of Australian involvement with the U.S. in Vietnam, Howard negotiated a very limited, essentially non-combat role for Australian forces in the ultimate invasion. It included, however, the first breach of international law in that illegal war when Australian special forces clandestinely crossed the thinly defended border and entered western Iraq in advance of “shock and awe.”

  21. Ha, ha, PB is what it is. Yet Cat would have you believe that people would contemplate suicide because of bullying. Well if that were true, why would anyone come on here, or any other site if things got so bad. Not very rational is it?

  22. C@tmomma @ #1068 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:29 pm

    Hi yabba,
    I still haven’t figured out which old man with white hair and a beard you were. 🙂

    The one with the smile, who doesn’t look quite so old. The one carrying the bin around the tables for people to put their used paper plates into. The one carrying around trays of avocado mini-blinis, from time to time. That one.

    Were you on the five bottle of wine table?

  23. clem attlee @ #1144 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 10:32 pm

    Ha, ha, PB is what it is. Yet Cat would have you believe that people would contemplate suicide because of bullying. Well if that were true, why would anyone come on here, or any other site if things got so bad. Not very rational is it?

    Do you not have children? I’m guessing not, because if you did, you might understand a bit better the influence social media can have 🙁

  24. C@tmomma,

    Well then, that post was over-the-top and in poor taste. It’s the kind of drama queen performance of which you accuse others.

Comments Page 23 of 25
1 22 23 24 25

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *