Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another national poll finds a narrowing in Labor’s lead, but there’s less encouraging news for the government out of Western Australia.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.

The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).

There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 22 of 25
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  1. Steve777
    The industry want it to happen so they can get on with it. It could finally split the Liberal party, the nutters from the moderates.

  2. P1

    Labor, amongst other things, are promising to implement the neg with a far greater reduction in emissions.

    I don’t see what your problem is?

  6. @frednk

    Good question is which side is going to leave the party. Given I believe a lot of parliamentary right-wingers are going to lose their seats, Julie Bishop might end up being elected as leader. However a lot of the membership are right-wingers.

  8. I think that people here have way too much faith in the “Liberal” “moderates”. After all, moderate-in-chief was perfectly happy to spend 3 years continuing the prosecution of Tony Abbott’s agenda, at the very last even ditching any pretence at addressing climate change to save his job. The other moderates went along with barely a squeak. Hen it comes to the crunch, they’ll knuckle under.

  15. I have just jumped on, and so I don’t know whether therehas been any comment on the ‘grand mufti’, and the ‘uncovered meat’ story.

    Several things should be noted. Taj El-Din Hamid Hilaly never represented all Australian Muslims. He was head of Lakemba mosque, in inner western Sydney. After the remarks he made in a sermon in October 2006 became public, he was generally condemned by islamic leaders, and he resigned from all public positions in June 2007. He had already become notorious for holocaust denial, and support for the perpetrators of 9/11 in a speech given in Lebanon. Things have moved on a very long way since then.

  20. Guy Matthew’s seems to have an anecdote for every question.
    Really pushing the everyman approach in this discussion (it’s hardly a debate, they seem to be in furious agreement about most things).
    Both playing it safe, hopefully the gloves come off in the last half hour.

  22. A very good point was made today, by I think it was Roman Quaedvlieg, that with the ramp up in Anti Muslim rhetoric by Matthew Guy, Scott Morrison and, Headkicker-In-Chief, Peter Dutton, they may very well be contributing to the Anti Australian rhetoric of Islamic Extremists in Indonesia, and thus, another Bali Bombing becomes that much more likely as a result.

    The Conservatives may like to talk a big book about being able to protect Australians, in Australia, but they can’t protect us all when overseas in countries like Indonesia, or Malaysia.

    Wherein, he made another strong point about Malaysia. It is the only Asian Muslim-majority country which ISIS dedicated a specific battalion for it’s fighters when they traveled overseas. Those battle-hardened and militarily-trained fighters have now come back home.

    Not to mention the effect the rhetoric about moving the Israeli Australian Embassy to Jerusalem would be having on recruitment and propaganda efforts.

    No doubt the Conservative brains trust will keep it up from now until the federal election. Like the idiots they are.

  24. So now Bulldust Borrison is going to manage the Trade Debtor ledger of every SME

    Good luck with that!!

    I wonder how promptly the Commonwealth pay because they used to number among the slowest of payers

    Quite frankly, Bulldust Borrison is showing why any expertise he may have is in marketing not in business management – then again I understand he was sacked from his marketing position

    So on a par on both measures

    The less the brains the louder the voice

    The cash to cash cycle is the lifeline of any business – but what is being suggested is just a nonsense

    There are methods purchasers have in regard paying including paying 30 days from the end of the month in which the Tax Invioce is dated, so in instances meaning the Terms and Conditions of payment can exceed to 60 days for a 30 day Tax Invoice

    As I say hopelessly out of his depth in his own bathtub


  25. Player One says:
    Wednesday, November 21, 2018 at 8:08 pm

    frednk @ #1050 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:32 pm

    Player one
    I expected REX to be first; congratulation. You upset industry is not going to build gas generators?

    They will. They are required for firming renewables. Did you not read the IPCC report?

    No mate; I have been going to Engineering presentations by industry leaders. Technically plans are well progressed. There is no coal and no gas. It’s all about wind, solar and water, and how to make it work. It will all be over in about 20 years.

    Hard to believe I know but we are about to see the de-carbonizing of our economy. They are assuming flat demand because people will off the grid to be replaced with cars coming on.

    This is going to be bigger than the industrial revolution.

  27. And yes I have read te IPCC report, it has nothing to do what Australai is going to do, a lot to do with why economies are being de-carbonised.

  28. poroti (Block)
    Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:19 pm

    As an ex forkie I can say that that is impressive! Impressively bad of course, but still impressive!

  29. frednk @ #1075 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:48 pm

    No mate; I have been going to Engineering presentations by industry leaders. Technically plans are well progressed. There is no coal and no gas. It’s all about wind, solar and water, and how to make it work.

    You should read the IPCC report. You might learn something.

    It will all be over in about 20 years.

    Certainly will if people like you you have your way 🙁

  30. In regards splits in the “Liberal” Party think Cormack and the positions put and the Orders in that matter

    I can assure you the Victorian Division is hopelessly split to the extent the anti Kroger, Bastiaan and Kennett numbers (so the old guard who are the money) are looking for a wipe out on Saturday

    They do not anticipate the numbers recruited by Bastiaan to remain Party members in opposition

    So then we will really see the fight

    Cormack are the money

    It says something when their support is on the basis the funds are not then used by the Victorian Division to launch further action against Cormack – and have therefore withheld funding

    The funding is from Kroger ($100,000-) and from borrowing against an expected sale price of $30 Million for 104, now fully borrowed against bank LVR – and there is no buyer!!

    They wanted to sell by Private Treaty to avoid publicity – but it may now have to go to auction

    “Liberal Party HQ fails to sell – does not reach Reserve”

    Good headline, hey?

    They also borrowed to fund the costs of that Court action they bought against Cormack – look at the Silks briefed and speculate on costs

  32. P1:

    Oh dear. This is bad news. The NEG is a basket case, and was deliberately designed to be unfit for its stated purpose (i.e. it was primarily intended to perpetuate the status quo, not reduce emissions).

    Listen to Fred. He’s got the good oil.

    It’s not all Li-ion batteries. There’s a range of chemistries – all cheaper – developing manufacturing techniques and supply chains as we speak. Sodium-ion, zink-air, flow batteries, all great for stationary eneryg storage.

    Li-ion’s benefit is its energy density, which is needed for consumer devices and automotive applications. If you have a paddock to fill with containerised batteries, energy density isn’t a limiting factor.

    The biggest argument I’m hearing is over where the batteries are installed.

  34. Nice to read that Renae Lawrence will face arrest over a car chase incident.

    My, how decisively NSW Plod moves when every camera in the country is on its quarry. It’s arrest upon disembarkation for Ms Lawrence. Not to be outdone by the Indons the NSW Rum Corps are one-upping them with a traffic offence. My, what LONG memories they have.

    Meanwhile, in Victoria a man who murdered 6 bystanders and injured dozens more (not even a terrorist either), is being sentenced shortly for the murders. He wouldn’t have been able to commit the crime if the blackshirt Vic cops had arrested and taken him into custody over… boom, boom… a car chase incident.

    Go figure.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/renae-lawrence-has-walked-free-from-her-bali-jail-20181121-p50hag.html

  36. sprocket_

    Kevin has done a great job with limited data.

    Interesting that he ends up with
    Labor 45 / Coalition 38 / Greens 3 / Independents 2

    I am still going with a better outcome for Labor of
    Labor 48 / Coalition 35 / Greens 3 / Independents 2

    I wonder if he’s game to predict the Upper House?

  37. @Player One.

    Takes one to know one, right?

    I’ll tell the same thing as I do others, if you resort to personal attacks on social media, then your argument is invalid.

  38. P1:

    Oh dear. This is bad news. The NEG is a basket case, and was deliberately designed to be unfit for its stated purpose (i.e. it was primarily intended to perpetuate the status quo, not reduce emissions).

    Exactly as Josh explained it a month or two back. BONUS for the companies is they have to do SFA until the last 2-3 years at which point what can only be called miracles were going to happen.

  43. Hi All

    I have kind of thought being anti a person, as the activists are against Tony Abbott the person, is not sustainable policy and wanting to get him out is just hatred of him the person and nothing much to do with issues of the electorate.

    However, TA’s electorate is North Shore and is probably now an elite area, with wealthy and well placed people who are generally very keen on climate change policies and pro immigration no borders. Much as Wentworth.

    Tony Abbott may find it harder to retain his seat given the demographic change and he is actually suited to a more working class electorate where power bills and crushing space and massive traffic problems getting to work are issues.

    As weird as it is, the elite suburbs have had a sea change and now are much more suited to Green/Labor representatives to address their concerns.

  46. Had a chance to view After the Apology by Larissa Behrendt today.

    It is well worth watching both for the message of placement of removed indigenous children in non-indigenous family and the method of passing on the message which included a sustained attack on FACS.

    Of some interest was the depiction of politicians. Linda Burney was eloquent but confined to her parliamentary office. David Shoebridge was the most prominent male in the documentary and was shown in the field shoulder to shoulder with the stars of the movies. Nigel Scullion only had a cameo in which he was shouted at.

  48. So what if he was of help in sorting out software and/or computer issues for Bludgers? It in no way takes away from the copious evidence of his stalking of various female posters and his unalloyed sexism and chauvinistic belittling of them, often multiple times a day and over a period of days, weeks, months and years!

    He came looking for trouble everyday, a skinhead among the bludgers. Apart from the periods when he was excluded, he spent most of his days here chucking rocks, breaking windows, upending the bins, slashing tyres and looting the shops. Bludging is a team sport but he was determined to make it all about him, about his particular hates.

    Bemused was no shrinking violet that’s for sure, but these two comments posted earlier in the day (by C@t and Briefly respectively) are just way over the top and frankly ridiculous.

    As for the suggestion that ‘Bludging is a team sport’ what utter codswallop. Politics is and always has been a contentious subject and is bound to involve heated discussion at times. Hardly a day goes by here without some demonstration of that fact. So let’s not single out Bemused because he was opinionated and stepped on a few toes from time to time. About the only difference between him and the rest of us is that he made the mistake of abusing William.

  49. P1
    If your actually interested in the Australian energy market the finkel report is a good place to start.

    https://www.energy.gov.au/publications/independent-review-future-security-national-electricity-market-blueprint-future

    In particular read page 113 +

    Where is the following sentence found?

    Given the current gas market conditions, it is possible that new technologies such as battery storage systems may be more cost-effective in providing security and reliability in the NEM in the near future.

    No it is not a random poll bludger post.

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