The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).
There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.
Victoria
“House prices have dipped quite a bit of late.”
The only true measure of house prices is if the same property comes on the market after a short period of time without improvements.
I received a market report from local Sydney agent comparing October median house sales for 2017 & 2018, 2018 saw a 9% increase in the median sale price .. on reduced turnover.
It’s all about sentiment, that & Fairfax / Domain generating click bait.. they are now paying the price with falling Ad revenue on less housing stock.
Bonza:
There’s likely to be a smorgasboard of presidential candidates in 2020. I just want Mitt Romney to take one for the country and run as a conservative independent.
How convenient
The AFP isn’t working in concert with the Liberals Law and Order campaign I bet those unfortunates are released eventually with no charges laid
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/20/arrested-planning-terrorist-act-police-raid-houses-melbourne
Sceptic
The clearance rate during this spring season in Melbourne has been atrocious, and homes are being sold for considerably less than a year ago. For me personally, I think it is a good thing. House prices are ridiculously high compared to our incomes etc.
Personally I am of the view that a house is primarily for shelter. If one moves house to upgrade or change location etc., the value of the exchange ought not matter to greatly. In fact, if the prices are somewhat depressed, the stamp duty incurred is also diminished.
The issue is for those who buy to invest, or want to see capital growth for retirement or the like.
If a house purchased a year ago is now worth say $100,000 less than purchased, it is going to hurt as most likely there is no buffer against the mortgage amount incurred.
Throw in the Labor policy, and the concern that this will further erode the asset value, is not going to help Labor garner support.
ScoMo going full hog on racist with Immigration cut.
What!?! Isn’t an alternative government allowed to propose policies which repair the Budget and correct the outrageous Structural Deficit baked in by reckless pandering of Coalition governments to their wealthy retiree base!?!
And, um, I thought a cooling Housing Market was a good thing!?! You know, so it would enable the Millennials who are currently finding it difficult to get a toe-hold in the market, unless they can rely on the Bank of Mum and Dad, to purchase their first home.
Jeez, have you lot become selfish conservative asset protectors overnight!?!
Labor’s Dividend Imputation policy prevents double dipping into the Treasury’s coffers, and, the NG/CGT policy is there simply to free up established housing stock for First Home Buyers and keep it out of the hands of Investors who seek to monpolise the space.
What’s not to like about that!?!
Possibly now that there is a firm expectation that Labor will win the next election, there has been blow back against Labor policies. In 2016 the expectation was that Turnbull would win.
That’s not to say Labor should change it’s policies, this affect will probably ameliorate.
Also people’s knowledge of changes like negative gearing and capital gains tax changes probably come from headlines in the DT or Herald Sun and so isn’t based on the policies themselves.
Billie
the timing may seem off. But it is not surprising after what happened a week ago. It usually means that those who were planning an attack, may have ramped up their plans etc, and Vic Police have decided to act now.
Why would you think this is a confected situation?
Come on, this is The Pollbludger. Surely no-one here is going to read anything into statistical noise like this? Apart from Newscorp hacks and AM radio trolls.
This is just movement around the MOE, surely?
The trend is your friend – when does Bludgertrack come out next?
Zoidlord
ScoMo is helping his Victorian state friends as much as he can.
Police have arrested three men alleged to have been plotting a “terrorist act” in Melbourne.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/20/arrested-planning-terrorist-act-police-raid-houses-melbourne?CMP=soc_568
Stand by for Guy, Dutton and Morrison to make it political.
Good morning all,
Both Ipsos and Esential have tightened into 52-48 so something is going on out in the real world.
While both polls have landed on the same spot the nitty gritty of each is interesting.
Ipsos has labor down 1 in a month and the liberals up 2.
Essential has labor down 4 in two weeks but the liberals only up 1.
The satisfaction figures for Morrison in Ipsos have declined over the month so a more positive apprasal by voters of the PM does not appear to be a driving force.
From a completely amateur perspective it appears to me to be more of a issue with labor at the moment rather than any increased appreciation of the coalition and Morrison as the love does not seem to be flowing back to them.
What is/ are the issue or issues ?
Perhaps as others have noted negative gearing is in play. Whatever the cause whether the angst washes through is the more important question as I cannot see labor changing any announced policy any time soon. They must stay committed otherwise they will come across as standing for nothing. One thing I know the voters do not appreciated.
Cheers and a great day to all and remember labor is still in front and I am very confident Shorten and labor having it all under control
Good Morning
My opinion on the polling. A lot of soft opinions about who to vote for.. Voters desperately looking at where they would vote.
With the APAC conference dominating Morrison looked pretty good on the News Bulletins highlighting the need for free trade and multilaterism and trying to be the sensible bridge between China and the US.
His calls for calm and ending the trade war are actually something I too support so I can see why voters like that.
The problem for Morrison is that the Embassy thing again stuffed up his good image from APEC.
Thus he did not get in from in the polls.
We will see similar results from the G20 meeting too. Maybe better for the LNP if they have sorted out the Embassy thing by then and not introduced another big blunder in the meantime.
@Victoria
ScoMo should be sending his Victorian friends to jail(say hi Mafia!)…
zoidlord
scomo would give them a medal instead! lol
‘Zoidlord says:
Tuesday, November 20, 2018 at 9:03 am
ScoMo going full hog on racist with Immigration cut.’
I support the immigration cut except that it is not big enough.
Excessive immigration is the foundation of our ponzi economy, our increasing CO2 emissions, decreasing urban amenity and our declining environment more generally.
Polls go up and polls go down. 🙂 Reckon its going to settle around 52/48 to 53/47 before the election. ALP doing well…and we have a popcorn weekend with the Vic election in the background as i fix the brakes on the ex’s van. 🙂
Next Newspoll??
@Victoria
Aye, a state parade too.
@BW
Except Infrastructure spending is not high enough and spending in general (and I’m not talking about Roads here).
The problem with Immigration cut will be people on Partner Visas, not work/tourist/student visas.
ScoMo recently increased work visas thing for places like fruit pickers.
So where will he cut it?
If there is a genuine move away from Labor in the past fortnight (and I am not sure there is, will have to wait for Newspoll I guess) then I agree with John Reidy. People are now awake to the fact that Labor is likely to win the next election. Given that, the 52/48 is probably more accurate if people are seriously considering their vote.
There is nothing Morrison has done that I have seen which would indicate a shift back to the Coalition. Quite the reverse. They are a rabble and Morrison appears out of his depth.
“Except Infrastructure spending is not high enough”
Need a change in Govt for that. Libs don’t “do” infrastructure…unless the $ go to their donors.
There are some good intiatives here. But the very nasty kicker is that it sets up women who are victims of domestic terrorism to be poorer when they retire:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/19/government-to-reveal-sweeping-changes-to-boost-womens-economic-security
BW
“Excessive immigration is the foundation of our ponzi economy, our increasing CO2 emissions, decreasing urban amenity and our declining environment more generally.”
What about birth rates?
@imacca
I agree.
ScoMo is doing what Liberals do best, the easiest and the laziest way to Govern.
And hope for the roof doesn’t fall.
‘Zoidlord says:
Tuesday, November 20, 2018 at 9:20 am
@BW
Except Infrastructure spending is not high enough and spending in general (and I’m not talking about Roads here).
The problem with Immigration cut will be people on Partner Visas, not work/tourist/student visas.
ScoMo recently increased work visas thing for places like fruit pickers.
So where will he cut it?’
I am up for a sensible discussion about where immigration numbers will be cut. As long as they are cut. I would like to see the numbers go down until the Australian population growth rate is zero.
Notions of ‘We’re full’ are facile.
The current population level is wrecking the joint. First main ambition: fix it up and stop the rates of environmental destruction.
‘Excessive immigration is the foundation of our ponzi economy, our increasing CO2 emissions, decreasing urban amenity and our declining environment more generally.’
I find this a typical nonsense from a Liberal fascist.
Most immigrants actually work or do school.
My wife does the free government program right now, the classes always full.
‘Lynch Pin says:
Tuesday, November 20, 2018 at 9:23 am
BW
“Excessive immigration is the foundation of our ponzi economy, our increasing CO2 emissions, decreasing urban amenity and our declining environment more generally.”
What about birth rates?’
I am more than happy for net immigration to be calibrated to birth rates such that our population reaches a steady state.
A concomitant would be the need to stop this nonsense of dual citizenship. Essentially around a quarter of our population can move into and out of Australia whenever they feel like it.
FWIW, I believe the negative gearing and franking credits are hurting Labor’s polling.
FWIW a 4 points drop in Labor’s PV in a fortnight they stood back and quietly let the government continue making fools of themselves simply did not happen.
Voters don’t shift like that. Knifing a PM might shift 4 points of PV.
Both this and Ipsos were bad Labor samples giving a 2PP on the low side of the MOE. Newspoll at 55 is probably on the high side. All three are likely to move the other way next go round.
Feed them into Bludgertrack, knock a bit of froth off the top of Labor’s lead, and move on to the inexorable demise of this execrable government.
@BW
‘I am up for a sensible discussion about where immigration numbers will be cut. As long as they are cut. I would like to see the numbers go down until the Australian population growth rate is zero.’
In your dreams.
Japan’s population is getting older.
Japan’s population is not making babies.
Japan’s population is overworked.
But they are realising that even they need more foreigners to help with shortages and population decline.
Ispos might have been a rogue, or even a rouge poll, but together with this one, I think that we can accept that 52-48 is about it. Again I note that with a sample size a bit over 1,000, the MOE is 3%.
I expect the polling will fall again very soon.
Without the whole looking good next to the Trump trade war policies the whole audience reaction on QandA last night will be the political vibe.
I was disappointed in Dreyfus for not pointing out Socialism is not Communism.
Medicare is socialism. So is a living wage.
Socialism is not anti democratic as the right tries and tells us it is.
Edit: Neither Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn have called for a dictatorship last I looked. In Corbyn’s case his lets return to old Labour platform from the 70’s is demonstrably not that as that Labour party was democratic in the 70’s.
Sceptic,
The only true measure of house prices is if the same property comes on the market after a short period of time without improvements.
Nup, not even. Your likeness criterion is overly restrictive.
The same property, but now next door to the building site of a 9 story apartment complex, is hardly the same house.
Likewise, the house down the street, of the same vintage, construction and state of repair, is a fair comparison.
So we use statistics, to compare like with like across a range of features.
Did the attack in Melbourne coincide with this Essential Poll period? Might have been a factor.
Can’t think of any logical reason to cause a 4 point drop in labor’s primary vote.
‘A concomitant would be the need to stop this nonsense of dual citizenship. Essentially around a quarter of our population can move into and out of Australia whenever they feel like it.’
Nonsense.
Japan has the most powerful passport in the world right now, it allows people to move around the world when it suits them and not the Government.
This is after all, 21st century, right?
Not Medieval ages where you need to be checked at every gate.
Morrison wants the states to develop immigration plans. Does that include from other states?
Nobody in WA foresaw the impact of the mining boom that caused a massive increase in property prices and rents and stretched infrastructure as workers flocked here from the east in their tens of thousands.
And then a lot of them went home and the market crashed.
All Shorten’s fault probably.
Chicago police say an active shooter at a city hospital is ‘down’, with initial reports suggesting multiple victims, including a critically wounded officer.
https://www.news.com.au/world/active-shooter-at-chicago-mercy-hospital/news-story/1c779efc99103b98799b9ec11cf7042f
Here we go again!
Looks like a narrowing of sorts. Despite all their ‘cockups’ it really shows that the public are willing to give the Coalition chance after chance. Such is their mistrust and dislike of little Billy Shorten.
Burgey
Morrison did make lots of noise about the Islamic leadership having to be more accountable.
did the voters like hearing crapola like that? cos nothing about the attack itself should help the fed govt. If anything, It could be argued that the federal agencies failed in their duty.
guytaur
Tony Jones made no attempt to clarify what was meant by the question. ‘Socialism’ is used as a political weapon by conservatives who don’t have a clue.
BK
it is groundhog day where shootings are concerned in the USA
Nath
QandA told us why. Basically the take out is that mainstream political thinking is that Medicare, a living wage etc as socialist means we want a dictatorship not a democracy.
Yes I exaggerate slightly but not by much. Thats how right wing the view presented on QandA was last night. Dreyfus should have spoken up for Medicare a living wage etc. All those things Sally McManus talks about.
Dreyfus may have spent his political capital on the ICAC thing and did not want to distract from that for practical reasons but it shows how the right dominates our media discussion these days.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/super-powerful-interstellar-ticking-time-bomb-found-not-far-from-earth-20181119-p50gyy.html
Hmmmm…again we are a lucky species living in a radio logically quiet part of the Galaxy. Another one not pointed at us.
zoidlord,
Your attitude is selfish. As far as I can see you are saying that, because you and your wife are immigrants, therefore an uncalibrated system of immigration is good. That because your wife is in a class full of happy immigrants, therefore uncalibrated immigration is good. That because you don’t care about the effect of uncalibrated immigration on the Australian environment, therefore anyone else who suggests these things be taken into account, is bad.
I really don’t appreciate Sydney suburbs being overdeveloped to the max, such that they now have higher population densities than Manhattan. Just so that we can increasingly make space for more immigrants.
If you want to turn Australia into just another conurbation of row after row of high rise, fine. I don’t.
lizzie
See my reply to Nath. For practical reasons I can understand why Dreyfus may have felt he could not be stronger in defending socialist policies.
His brief was anti corruption. He wanted that to be his take out message from the show. I get that practical reality. It does not stop me from being disappointed.
And for as long as they continue to do nothing meaningful on gun control we’ll keep on going and going.
No one takes seriously these various right wing idiots sprouting threats of “socialism”. No one. It’s down there with where we put an embassy in level of importance to people other than those obsessed as we are with politics.
Two polls that happened to move from 55 and 54 to 52 doesn’t equal the voters moved from 54.5 to 52.
If they repeat 52s next time we can be a bit more confident that an actual move happened. If they get stuck on 52 for a few months we can be quite confident.
But this just looks like random noise. When there’s so few polls a coincidental bit of random noise in two polls is going to happen and look more important than it is.
They won’t both repeat 52 next time out.
lizzie @ #90 Tuesday, November 20th, 2018 – 9:39 am
For 2 reasons:
1. The sibilant sound of the ‘s’, so that conservatives can sneer and hiss as they say it.
2. If conservatives said Communism, everybody would laugh at them. So they disparage the next worse thing.
You really have to ask if it’s feasible that the Labor pv could have fallen 4 points in just two weeks. Two maybe, four no.
That said, I did notice there was a federal Queensland poll just after the Morrison bus tour that we all laughed at, which showed a lift in the LNP 2PP in that state. I wondered at the time whether all the fair dinkums, meat pies and baseball hats might just be working. A lot of them up there are not all that bright remember.
It will be interesting to see whether Bludgertrack lends any support to that over the next couple of weeks.