The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.
The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).
There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.
nath
‘You see that’s what you don’t understand. It’s not a matter of targeting seats. The Greens could ‘target’ Carrum and spend all their money there, wont do much’
Um, exactly what I was saying. The Greens used to spread their focus, and campaign in seats like Carrum as if they were seats like Brunswick. They don’t do this any more, because they’ve realised that’s a waste of resources.
As I said, it’s a wise move. It will/should garner them seats, in the same way that the Nats targeting seats means they do (remember, the Nats changed their name because they thought they had a chance of picking up non-country seats. They were wrong).
However, picking up a few inner city seats – whether that’s because of wise campaigning or complacent sitting around waiting for demographic change – will not see the future being Green, which is what you were contending.
Bits of the immediate future may well be Green. But only a few bits.
nath
I haven’t said Brunswick WON’T go Green. I said the article provided no indication that there was any kind of swing on (I can discount your eighty year old – he indicated that he was considering changing his vote because of the candidate, not because of the fact the candidate was Green. Usually this kind of vote is balanced by the votes of people who know the other candidate personally as well…).
I am now contesting your statement that the future is Green.
Sorry if running two arguments at once confuses you.
lizzie @ #854 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 1:46 pm
When these political dipsticks announce things like that I just wonder what their justification is for doing it? I mean, we know why, but they just announce it and that’s supposed to be that. They never seem to be asked to justify their decision.
It’s not even as if Fracking replaces the Renewable Energy industry with more jobs, it doesn’t.
It just seems like a decision based upon vested interests and not good quality Public Policy.
Plenty of tourists in Australia.
https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/travel-insurance/research/tourism-statistics.html?platform=hootsuite
C@tmomma @ #804 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:49 am
C@t can I kindly and gently encourage you to make use of the “block” button for any posters who cause you distress? The judicious use of the block button will greatly improve your Poll Bludger experience and you’ll have substantially less distress from exposure to those on this blog whose views contribute very little.
My only wish for the “block” button is that one be developed for Chrome on Andriod. I’d very much like my phone experience of Poll Bludger to reflect that of my laptop experience. Such a development would also eliminate the risk of me wearing a hole in my screen from scrolling.
briefly @ #807 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:56 am
Do you have any updates on how the Canning campaign is going? My only knowledge is of the Pearce campaign.
Has anyone else found that their Twitter is slow, and refusing to copy without a lot of trouble? Only for the past week or so.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/careers/renewable-energy-could-offer-up-to-60000-australian-jobs/news-story/18ddf975618ae782fc94aa39b763dcfb?utm_source=News.com.au&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_medium=Facebook
Rocket Rocket @ #829 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:59 am
My favoured date is the 27th May, being the anniversary of the successful vote on including Aboriginals to be included in the census and allowing the Commonwealth to create laws for them.
Greg Jericho
Verified account @GrogsGamut
2m2 minutes ago
Greg Jericho Retweeted Greg Jericho
“I make no apologies for…
“standing up for the battlers”
“keeping Australia safe”
“caring about energy prices”
“loving Australia”
“delivering tax cuts”
“being in favour of a fair go”
grimace @ #871 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:26 pm
Wouldn’t that be better as an Indigenous Recognition Day?
C@tmomma @ #903 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:05 pm
It means that Guy has given up and is now focussed solely on appealing to the conservative base of the Liberal Party. This announcement coupled with closing the safe injecting room in Richmond is a desperate attempt to save the furniture.
Zoidlord @ #872 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:26 pm
…Using every cliche in the book.
It means that Guy has given up and is now focussed solely on appealing to the conservative base of the Liberal Party. This announcement coupled with closing the safe injecting room in Richmond is a desperate attempt to save the furniture.
Thank you for that insightful and reassuring analysis, GG. 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/nov/21/banking-royal-commission-cba-and-westpac-bosses-to-give-evidence-live
More than just “teething problems”, or a “case of the hiccups”?
Not quite “dead, buried and cremated” either, but we’re definitely into “run over by a bulldozer” territory now.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/northern-beaches-hospital-chief-executive-deborah-latta-resigns-20181121-p50hcf.html
I’ve had first hand dealings with the mental midgets who set up the staffing transfer processes for the new Northern Beaches health shop. It was not a pretty experience.
C@tmomma @ #912 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 11:28 am
A good point. I’ll put the 3rd of June, the anniversary of the Mabo decision forward for consideration.
My thinking was that we have a date that celebrated national unity, rather than the insufferable nationalism & camp* patriotism we are presently subjected to.
* Camp (noun)
1a : something so outrageously artificial, affected, inappropriate, or out-of-date as to be considered amusing
This version of the play is camp: outrageous in concept and wild in its execution with double entendres flying every which way.
b : a style or mode of personal or creative expression that is absurdly exaggerated and often fuses elements of high and popular culture
Frednk @6:30am
Cud Chewer says:
Tuesday, November 20, 2018 at 10:38 pm
I’m surprised that the issue of raising Warragamba dam hasn’t featured more on this discussion
Odd response. There are alternatives and the threat of flooding in the area has been known since the 1800s. So anyone that builds on the flood plain should be aware of the risk.
My comment was more about why the issue isn’t getting even more traction in the media and on here.
grimace….I understand the Canning campaign is going well…I’ll report again when I have more info 🙂
It would be great if Melissa gets up….people think very highly of her
A late submission by David Rowe.
briefly @ #920 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 11:41 am
I met James Martin (Hasluck) on the weekend, he’s an impressive candidate too. I’ve previously offered to door knock for him if/when they go door knocking in the western part of the electorate which boarders Pearce.
BK,
That one looks familiar.
I reckon it’s one from a few weeks ago.
Don, I would be happy for Joyce to get re-elected and also leaving Tony in Wahringa. The longer they are there, the more they trash the LNP brand.
Long may They reign.
Westpac’s CEO Brian Hartzer pales in comparison with CBA’s Comyn at the royal commission. He is nowhere nearly as well prepared and on top of his brief.
Turnbull is facing a push to be kicked out of the Liberal Party after some New South Wales members passed a motion for his expulsion.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/liberals-in-nsw-have-voted-to-expel-former-prime-minister-malcolm-turnbull-from-the-party/news-story/7d9cb35ac88c7b4df13caff0f57445ee
BK
Trumble should be asking for his $2 million dollars back.
As there is safety in numbers and because I am shit scared of C@t, let me enjoy safety in numbers and add to the comments of BB, BIGD, Nath and the few others who protested C@t’s rude and aggressive post to Kay Jay this morning.
This was yet another example of unprovoked bullying by the resident champion of bullies, and as usual followed by flimsy excuses “who me?” and “I was only setting the record straight” and “dear oh dear I am innocent again (still)”.
Get your facts right C@t. Bemused was sent off for arguing with the ref. Poor Confessions gave as good as she received, never outright aggro like you but usually oblique backhanders which were obvious to most readers. And your misuse of “stalking” to describe Bemused is quite ridiculous.
And here’s a suggestion C@t. You quote your personal life circumstances here so regularly that they are evidently badges of honour for you. It’s as though you are the only poster who has had tough experiences. Perhaps you might consider that probably every poster here has had difficult events in their life, and many have had horrific events. But they do not use that as excuses to take it out on others.
Cud Chewer
Dams are being risen all over the place. They are designed for a mythical flood. Unfortunatly the mythical floods are happening.
It only matters when these events occure.
So my question, do the greens believe in climate change?
PeeBee @ #924 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:58 pm
that’s OK for you. Joyce is my representative in federal government.
PeeBee
If Joyce is a harmless if annoying pustule that is only causing local damage then Abbott is a malignant cancer.
You know what I’m saying…
haha
One of the main local sprukiers for MMT and the JGI has admitted that it could cause inflation but that that can be ‘managed’.
Quite how he planned to do this, he forebore from mentioning.
Frednk
Which part of “there are alternatives” don’t you get?
The trouble with touting dams for flood control is that this means you need to build a dam which is basically empty much of the time.
@BK
The Liberal Party are probably now in the process of beginning to split, into one centrist party and a right-wing populist party (which might merge with the Nationals).
I’m getting a little bit sick of this.
Whatever he may have done (or it is alleged that he did) Jarryd Hayne has a right to remain silent, throughout the investigation and even the judicial phases of the criminal process.
He has a right to have his case tried before an impartial jury of his peers, free of prejudice and taint of sensationalized “evidence”. He has a right to face his accuser.
The NSW Police appear to be running the state. They have taken it upon themselves to allege and release lurid details related to the incident. They have no right to do this.
The police are not a court. The SMH is neither judge, jury nor courtroom.
This is not a #metoo matter. It is a matter of Hayne receiving the fair trial that he is entitled to, without prejudgement or any risk that the judicial process will be unduly affected by unsourced articles such as the one linked… no matter how damning the evidence appears to be.
Tristo
Well, I wish they’d hurry up and split, then they could set goals and we could fight them. For now, it’s like fighting clouds.
Whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty? I thought that was the law last time I looked.
Don, ‘that’s OK for you. Joyce is my representative in federal government.’
Yes Don, I am sorry for you. But in my defence, Kelly O’Dwyer is my local member.
Matthew Guy is hitting all the buttons he can think of, hoping one works.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberals-to-shut-down-injecting-room-in-a-week-if-elected-20181121-p50hcj.html
PeeBee @ #939 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 3:30 pm
OK, it’s a toss up!
🙂
I have observed that the #metoo movement is part of a campaign driven by the Millennial generation to ‘clean up’ the culture. This “clean” up is targeting racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, sexual harassment. Sure it has it’s excesses, however I believe it is really needed to be honest. As the Millennial’s become older, this emerging code of conduct will dominate society and be enforced ruthlessly.
Wish a few more so-called ‘Labor’ people would take note of Warren Mundine and out themselves as true neo-libs.
Has there even been any problems with the Richmond Safe Injecting Room?
Hartzer should audition for Tap Dogs next time they tour.
Kay Jay – I’ll add my voice to those who love your posts, and who have not the slightest problem with your comments about the late lamented Bemused.
I did not like much of Bemused’s behaviour, although occasionally he showed some good qualities, and mostly I Just Scrolled Past.
It’s a little ironic to me though that some of the posters who are most vituperative about Bemused, seem to display many of the less desirable of Bemused’s behaviours themselves, at least in their PB incarnation. Consequently, for those posters too, mostly I Just Scroll Past.
Why do Labor/Greens supporters think people who call out extremist radical Islam or criticize the burqa/niqab are somehow anti-Muslim? It’s for the benefit of the Muslim community that this evil ideology is called out. This is why Labor/Greens will lose the next federal election, because they would rather defend extremist radical Islam instead of standing up for Australian values.
PeeBee @ #939 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 3:30 pm
I think what PeeBee is saying to Don is “I’ll meet your Barnaby Joyce and raise you a Kelly O’Dwyer!”
For the discussion about 9th May being Australia day, Qld would not like it, Easter,Anzac, Labour day all are around that time.
@Bree
What values would that be?
And I’ll raise Bree’s Islamophobia with a comment from Bernard Keane in today’s crikey:
The same policy breakdown that has occurred in other areas of neoliberal policymaking is now occurring on immigration. It’s generating the same response as in other areas. And it has the same causes. Rinse, repeat.
Scott Morrison, who only a matter of months ago was an ardent defender of high immigration, now wants to cut it. The PM says he has heard the complaints of residents of Sydney and Melbourne about congestion and access to services and housing.
Ironically, 38% of people in Sydney and 35% of people in Melbourne were born overseas, so more than a third of this alleged problem are drawbridge migrants whingeing about people who arrived after them.
As people with expertise in immigration, like former senior public servant Abul Rizvi point out, cutting permanent migration by 30,000, as Morrison proposes, isn’t going to do jack when every year we have hundreds of thousands of foreign students crowding into our cities, pushing up demand for housing and using infrastructure and services.
Not that the government would touch the sacred cow of education exports.