Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Another national poll finds a narrowing in Labor’s lead, but there’s less encouraging news for the government out of Western Australia.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll echoes the weekend Ipsos result in recording a narrowing in the Labor lead to 52-48, in this case from 54-46 in the previous poll. The report in The Guardian is more forthcoming than usual on the primary vote, revealing that the damage to Labor has taken the form of a four-point drop to 35%, with the Coalition up only one point to 37%. Beyond that, we will have to wait for the publication of the full report later today.

The supplementary questions include two gauging support for independents in parliament (42% would consider voting for one, 38% felt there should be more); two in which they were asked to rate the overall quality of the Coalition (28% good, 35% poor) and Labor (28% good, 33% poor) front benches; one in which they were asked who would do a better job running the country (36% Labor, 35% Coalition); one series in which they were presented with various propositions about the major parties and asked whether they agreed or disagreed (51% agreed both had no long-term plan for the country, 38% said there was no substantial difference between their policies and 42% said they were too ideological); and another in which they were asked if the government was doing enough to tackle various issues (no to pretty much everything).

There was also a small-sample poll of federal voting intention in Western Australia published in yesterday’s West Australian, conducted by local market research firm Painted Dog Research. This showed Labor leading 51-49 in the state, compared with a 54.7-45.3 result at the 2016 election. The primary votes were Coalition 32% (48.7% in 2016), Labor 34% (32.5%), Greens 11% (12.1%), One Nation 6% (no candidates fielded) and, echoing the findings of the Essential Research, 11% for independents. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday last week from a sample of 474. The report also relates that Labor internal polling in Cowan has Anne Aly adding 5% to her 0.7% margin, with the Liberal primary vote down 15% from its 42.2% in 2016, and that the party “believes it is in a strong position in Hasluck and in front in Stirling and line-ball in Pearce”.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential here. The full primary votes are Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 35% (down four), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 7% (up one). The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1027.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,214 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

Comments Page 19 of 25
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  1. nath

    ‘You see that’s what you don’t understand. It’s not a matter of targeting seats. The Greens could ‘target’ Carrum and spend all their money there, wont do much’

    Um, exactly what I was saying. The Greens used to spread their focus, and campaign in seats like Carrum as if they were seats like Brunswick. They don’t do this any more, because they’ve realised that’s a waste of resources.

    As I said, it’s a wise move. It will/should garner them seats, in the same way that the Nats targeting seats means they do (remember, the Nats changed their name because they thought they had a chance of picking up non-country seats. They were wrong).

    However, picking up a few inner city seats – whether that’s because of wise campaigning or complacent sitting around waiting for demographic change – will not see the future being Green, which is what you were contending.

    Bits of the immediate future may well be Green. But only a few bits.

  2. nath

    I haven’t said Brunswick WON’T go Green. I said the article provided no indication that there was any kind of swing on (I can discount your eighty year old – he indicated that he was considering changing his vote because of the candidate, not because of the fact the candidate was Green. Usually this kind of vote is balanced by the votes of people who know the other candidate personally as well…).

    I am now contesting your statement that the future is Green.

    Sorry if running two arguments at once confuses you.

  3. lizzie @ #854 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 1:46 pm

    Ewart Dave

    @davidbewart
    2m2 minutes ago

    Matthew Guy has announced a 100 day plan to scrap Vic’s Renewable Energy Target.

    This puts 10,000 jobs and our climate under threat! #fuckingmuppet

    When these political dipsticks announce things like that I just wonder what their justification is for doing it? I mean, we know why, but they just announce it and that’s supposed to be that. They never seem to be asked to justify their decision.

    It’s not even as if Fracking replaces the Renewable Energy industry with more jobs, it doesn’t.

    It just seems like a decision based upon vested interests and not good quality Public Policy.

  4. C@tmomma @ #804 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:49 am

    KayJay,
    Despite much anti opinion Bemused was a ready assistant in cases such as this.

    So what!?! The ‘anti opinion’ was more than justified in Bemused’s case.

    KayJay, you are a nice man and very helpful to Bludgers but can I just say that this seemingly tireless, subtle campaign you have been waging lately to get Bemused reinstated to PB is just plain tacky.

    So what if he was of help in sorting out software and/or computer issues for Bludgers? It in no way takes away from the copious evidence of his stalking of various female posters and his unalloyed sexism and chauvinistic belittling of them, often multiple times a day and over a period of days, weeks, months and years!

    If you think that’s okay, say so, but this prevarication and papering over history with a none-to-subtle rewriting of it to portray Bemused as such a nice guy who should be allowed back to PB to take up where he left off, helping people, does you no credit at all.

    Just come right out and say it if you think that helping people with their computer problems should trump abusing women on this forum, eh? You’re just being too cute by half when you leave out the other parts of Bemused’s history on PB, in order to achieve your seeming goal.

    C@t can I kindly and gently encourage you to make use of the “block” button for any posters who cause you distress? The judicious use of the block button will greatly improve your Poll Bludger experience and you’ll have substantially less distress from exposure to those on this blog whose views contribute very little.

    My only wish for the “block” button is that one be developed for Chrome on Andriod. I’d very much like my phone experience of Poll Bludger to reflect that of my laptop experience. Such a development would also eliminate the risk of me wearing a hole in my screen from scrolling.

  5. briefly @ #807 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 7:56 am

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/activist-group-mobilises-local-antiabbott-campaign/news-story/a9176a04e93b73f17d0c3fd60a3ea141

    There are few things that would better serve this country than removing Abbott and his cronies from the Parliament. Abbott, Joyce, Dutton….Morrison too, for that matter. I hope that Hastie (in Canning) also goes and will be campaigning for his Labor opponent, Melissa Teede:

    https://www.alp.org.au/our-people/our-people/mellisa-teede/

    Do you have any updates on how the Canning campaign is going? My only knowledge is of the Pearce campaign.

  6. Rocket Rocket @ #829 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:59 am

    ross, cat

    The other absurd thing about AA is that they see one of the most important issues as “preserving Australia Day”.

    I believe we should celebrate Australia Day – on 9th May.
    – 9th May 1901 opening of Australia’s first Federal Parliament (in Melbourne)
    – 9th May 1927 opening of Parliament House in Canberra
    – 9th May 1988 opening of New Parliament House in Canberra

    My favoured date is the 27th May, being the anniversary of the successful vote on including Aboriginals to be included in the census and allowing the Commonwealth to create laws for them.

  7. Greg Jericho
    ‏Verified account @GrogsGamut
    2m2 minutes ago

    Greg Jericho Retweeted Greg Jericho

    “I make no apologies for…

    “standing up for the battlers”
    “keeping Australia safe”
    “caring about energy prices”
    “loving Australia”
    “delivering tax cuts”
    “being in favour of a fair go”

  8. grimace @ #871 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    Rocket Rocket @ #829 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:59 am

    ross, cat

    The other absurd thing about AA is that they see one of the most important issues as “preserving Australia Day”.

    I believe we should celebrate Australia Day – on 9th May.
    – 9th May 1901 opening of Australia’s first Federal Parliament (in Melbourne)
    – 9th May 1927 opening of Parliament House in Canberra
    – 9th May 1988 opening of New Parliament House in Canberra

    My favoured date is the 27th May, being the anniversary of the successful vote on including Aboriginals to be included in the census and allowing the Commonwealth to create laws for them.

    Wouldn’t that be better as an Indigenous Recognition Day?

  9. C@tmomma @ #903 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:05 pm

    lizzie @ #854 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 1:46 pm

    Ewart Dave

    @davidbewart
    2m2 minutes ago

    Matthew Guy has announced a 100 day plan to scrap Vic’s Renewable Energy Target.

    This puts 10,000 jobs and our climate under threat! #fuckingmuppet

    When these political dipsticks announce things like that I just wonder what their justification is for doing it? I mean, we know why, but they just announce it and that’s supposed to be that. They never seem to be asked to justify their decision.

    It’s not even as if Fracking replaces the Renewable Energy industry with more jobs, it doesn’t.

    It just seems like a decision based upon vested interests and not good quality Public Policy.

    It means that Guy has given up and is now focussed solely on appealing to the conservative base of the Liberal Party. This announcement coupled with closing the safe injecting room in Richmond is a desperate attempt to save the furniture.

  10. Zoidlord @ #872 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    Greg Jericho
    ‏Verified account @GrogsGamut
    2m2 minutes ago

    Greg Jericho Retweeted Greg Jericho

    “I make no apologies for…

    “standing up for the battlers”
    “keeping Australia safe”
    “caring about energy prices”
    “loving Australia”
    “delivering tax cuts”
    “being in favour of a fair go”

    …Using every cliche in the book.

  11. It means that Guy has given up and is now focussed solely on appealing to the conservative base of the Liberal Party. This announcement coupled with closing the safe injecting room in Richmond is a desperate attempt to save the furniture.

    Thank you for that insightful and reassuring analysis, GG. 🙂

  12. More than just “teething problems”, or a “case of the hiccups”?

    Not quite “dead, buried and cremated” either, but we’re definitely into “run over by a bulldozer” territory now.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/northern-beaches-hospital-chief-executive-deborah-latta-resigns-20181121-p50hcf.html

    I’ve had first hand dealings with the mental midgets who set up the staffing transfer processes for the new Northern Beaches health shop. It was not a pretty experience.

  13. C@tmomma @ #912 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 11:28 am

    grimace @ #871 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 2:26 pm

    Rocket Rocket @ #829 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 8:59 am

    ross, cat

    The other absurd thing about AA is that they see one of the most important issues as “preserving Australia Day”.

    I believe we should celebrate Australia Day – on 9th May.
    – 9th May 1901 opening of Australia’s first Federal Parliament (in Melbourne)
    – 9th May 1927 opening of Parliament House in Canberra
    – 9th May 1988 opening of New Parliament House in Canberra

    My favoured date is the 27th May, being the anniversary of the successful vote on including Aboriginals to be included in the census and allowing the Commonwealth to create laws for them.

    Wouldn’t that be better as an Indigenous Recognition Day?

    A good point. I’ll put the 3rd of June, the anniversary of the Mabo decision forward for consideration.

    My thinking was that we have a date that celebrated national unity, rather than the insufferable nationalism & camp* patriotism we are presently subjected to.

    * Camp (noun)
    1a : something so outrageously artificial, affected, inappropriate, or out-of-date as to be considered amusing
    This version of the play is camp: outrageous in concept and wild in its execution with double entendres flying every which way.
    b : a style or mode of personal or creative expression that is absurdly exaggerated and often fuses elements of high and popular culture

  14. Frednk @6:30am

    Cud Chewer says:
    Tuesday, November 20, 2018 at 10:38 pm

    I’m surprised that the issue of raising Warragamba dam hasn’t featured more on this discussion

    Environmentalists don’t seem to believe in climate change; discuss.

    Or do they have an alternate proposal; moving Sydney perhaps?

    Odd response. There are alternatives and the threat of flooding in the area has been known since the 1800s. So anyone that builds on the flood plain should be aware of the risk.

    My comment was more about why the issue isn’t getting even more traction in the media and on here.

  15. grimace….I understand the Canning campaign is going well…I’ll report again when I have more info 🙂

    It would be great if Melissa gets up….people think very highly of her

  16. briefly @ #920 Wednesday, November 21st, 2018 – 11:41 am

    grimace….I understand the Canning campaign is going well…I’ll report again when I have more info 🙂

    It would be great if Melissa gets up….people think very highly of her

    I met James Martin (Hasluck) on the weekend, he’s an impressive candidate too. I’ve previously offered to door knock for him if/when they go door knocking in the western part of the electorate which boarders Pearce.

  17. Don, I would be happy for Joyce to get re-elected and also leaving Tony in Wahringa. The longer they are there, the more they trash the LNP brand.

    Long may They reign.

  18. Westpac’s CEO Brian Hartzer pales in comparison with CBA’s Comyn at the royal commission. He is nowhere nearly as well prepared and on top of his brief.

  19. As there is safety in numbers and because I am shit scared of C@t, let me enjoy safety in numbers and add to the comments of BB, BIGD, Nath and the few others who protested C@t’s rude and aggressive post to Kay Jay this morning.

    This was yet another example of unprovoked bullying by the resident champion of bullies, and as usual followed by flimsy excuses “who me?” and “I was only setting the record straight” and “dear oh dear I am innocent again (still)”.

    Get your facts right C@t. Bemused was sent off for arguing with the ref. Poor Confessions gave as good as she received, never outright aggro like you but usually oblique backhanders which were obvious to most readers. And your misuse of “stalking” to describe Bemused is quite ridiculous.

    And here’s a suggestion C@t. You quote your personal life circumstances here so regularly that they are evidently badges of honour for you. It’s as though you are the only poster who has had tough experiences. Perhaps you might consider that probably every poster here has had difficult events in their life, and many have had horrific events. But they do not use that as excuses to take it out on others.

  20. Cud Chewer
    Dams are being risen all over the place. They are designed for a mythical flood. Unfortunatly the mythical floods are happening.
    It only matters when these events occure.

    So my question, do the greens believe in climate change?

  21. PeeBee

    If Joyce is a harmless if annoying pustule that is only causing local damage then Abbott is a malignant cancer.

    You know what I’m saying…

  22. haha

    One of the main local sprukiers for MMT and the JGI has admitted that it could cause inflation but that that can be ‘managed’.

    Quite how he planned to do this, he forebore from mentioning.

  23. @BK

    The Liberal Party are probably now in the process of beginning to split, into one centrist party and a right-wing populist party (which might merge with the Nationals).

  24. I’m getting a little bit sick of this.

    New details continue to emerge over an alleged sexual assault at the hands of Jarryd Hayne, including that the former NRL star bit the female victim on her genital area, causing severe bleeding that required her to seek medical attention.

    A police source confirmed he is yet to make any comment or statement on the record to police, and has thus far “declined to be interviewed.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/jarryd-hayne-allegedly-bit-woman-on-the-genitals-before-taxi-back-to-sydney-20181121-p50hd7.html

    Whatever he may have done (or it is alleged that he did) Jarryd Hayne has a right to remain silent, throughout the investigation and even the judicial phases of the criminal process.

    He has a right to have his case tried before an impartial jury of his peers, free of prejudice and taint of sensationalized “evidence”. He has a right to face his accuser.

    The NSW Police appear to be running the state. They have taken it upon themselves to allege and release lurid details related to the incident. They have no right to do this.

    The police are not a court. The SMH is neither judge, jury nor courtroom.

    This is not a #metoo matter. It is a matter of Hayne receiving the fair trial that he is entitled to, without prejudgement or any risk that the judicial process will be unduly affected by unsourced articles such as the one linked… no matter how damning the evidence appears to be.

  25. Don, ‘that’s OK for you. Joyce is my representative in federal government.’

    Yes Don, I am sorry for you. But in my defence, Kelly O’Dwyer is my local member.

  26. Matthew Guy is hitting all the buttons he can think of, hoping one works.

    The opposition will shut down the state’s only medically supervised drug injecting room within a week if voted into government in this Saturday’s state election.

    The facility is located in Richmond, the only state seat where the Liberals have not put forward a candidate.

    Opposition Leader Matthew Guy has laid out his plan for the party’s first 100 days of government if elected, making closure of the Richmond safe injecting room a top priority.

    Mr Guy said he would arrange a pre-Christmas parliamentary sitting to get started on some of the Coalition’s most urgent policies including introducing mandatory minimum jail time for a raft of violent offences, and starting work on a new power station within a month.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberals-to-shut-down-injecting-room-in-a-week-if-elected-20181121-p50hcj.html

  27. I have observed that the #metoo movement is part of a campaign driven by the Millennial generation to ‘clean up’ the culture. This “clean” up is targeting racism, sexism, homophobia, transphobia, sexual harassment. Sure it has it’s excesses, however I believe it is really needed to be honest. As the Millennial’s become older, this emerging code of conduct will dominate society and be enforced ruthlessly.

  28. Kay Jay – I’ll add my voice to those who love your posts, and who have not the slightest problem with your comments about the late lamented Bemused.

    I did not like much of Bemused’s behaviour, although occasionally he showed some good qualities, and mostly I Just Scrolled Past.

    It’s a little ironic to me though that some of the posters who are most vituperative about Bemused, seem to display many of the less desirable of Bemused’s behaviours themselves, at least in their PB incarnation. Consequently, for those posters too, mostly I Just Scroll Past.

  29. Why do Labor/Greens supporters think people who call out extremist radical Islam or criticize the burqa/niqab are somehow anti-Muslim? It’s for the benefit of the Muslim community that this evil ideology is called out. This is why Labor/Greens will lose the next federal election, because they would rather defend extremist radical Islam instead of standing up for Australian values.

  30. For the discussion about 9th May being Australia day, Qld would not like it, Easter,Anzac, Labour day all are around that time.

    @Bree
    What values would that be?

  31. And I’ll raise Bree’s Islamophobia with a comment from Bernard Keane in today’s crikey:

    The same policy breakdown that has occurred in other areas of neoliberal policymaking is now occurring on immigration. It’s generating the same response as in other areas. And it has the same causes. Rinse, repeat.

    Scott Morrison, who only a matter of months ago was an ardent defender of high immigration, now wants to cut it. The PM says he has heard the complaints of residents of Sydney and Melbourne about congestion and access to services and housing.

    Ironically, 38% of people in Sydney and 35% of people in Melbourne were born overseas, so more than a third of this alleged problem are drawbridge migrants whingeing about people who arrived after them.

    As people with expertise in immigration, like former senior public servant Abul Rizvi point out, cutting permanent migration by 30,000, as Morrison proposes, isn’t going to do jack when every year we have hundreds of thousands of foreign students crowding into our cities, pushing up demand for housing and using infrastructure and services.

    Not that the government would touch the sacred cow of education exports.

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