Victorian election minus one week

The Liberals continue to talk up their chances ahead of next week’s Victorian election, but betting markets appear unimpressed.

The Victorian election has been remarkably light on for opinion polls: the Herald Sun has had only the four YouGov Galaxy seat polls it has published over the past week; The Australian appears to be content with top-and-tailing the campaign with Newspoll results; and The Age has had precisely nothing. We do, however, have a uComms/ReachTEL poll conducted privately for the Victorian National Parks Association, although one might well look askance at the result, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44. After allocated results from a forced response follow-up for the 6.7% who were initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 40.4% (38.1% in 2014), Coalition 36.8% (42.0%) and Greens 10.3% (11.5%). The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1527.

Oddly enough, there has also been movement to Labor on the betting markets, with Ladbrokes now offering $1.18 on Labor to form government after the election, in from $1.25 a week ago, and the Coalition out from $3.50 to $4.33. Notable movements on Ladbrokes’ seat markets include “independent” – of which there are two, Jenny O’Connor and Jacqui Hawkins – being slashed from $13 to $4 in Benambra. This presumably has something to do with a report by Gay Alcorn in The Guardian relating that polling conducted for O’Connor showed Liberal member Bill Tilley’s primary vote falling below 40%.

Ladbrokes also has “independent” as favourite in the crowded field in Morwell, where Russell Northe is seeking re-election after quitting the Nationals, although it has little separating independent, Coalition (which could mean either the Nationals or the Liberals, both of whom are running) and Labor. It would seem there has also been money coming in on Labor to recover Northcote from the Greens – the latter are still favourites at $1.20, but this is out from $1.14 a week ago, and Labor has been cut from $5 to $3.75. Odds for each electorate are displayed on the bottom-right of each page of my election guide; if you would like your gambling losses to go to a good cause, you are encouraged to sign up to Ladbrokes using the links there or on the sidebar.

John Ferguson of The Australian offers the following assessment:

The word increasingly out of the Liberal camp is that it can win. Labor believes this is a deliberate attempt by the Coalition to inject some life into the Liberal campaign team and the media, and that the optimism is not backed by reality. Guy was campaigning yesterday morning in the seat of Wendouree, part of Ballarat, about an hour’s drive west of Melbourne, which until late this week was not much on people’s radar. Despite a pro-Labor margin of 5.7 per cent, the Liberals think it is a possible gain, something Labor is not prepared to concede. The Liberals remain optimistic they can pick up four seats in Melbourne’s sandbelt, starting at Frankston in the southeast, which has a margin of just 0.48 per cent. It is a crime seat. The other three seats the Liberal Party is talking up are Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc, all with margins of 2.1 per cent or under. But even on this scenario, the Coalition needs to pick up four more seats and so far the evidence of this happening has been lacking …

There are also at least three outlier seats that could cause the Liberal Party heartburn as independents try to unseat Guy’s candidates. The first is Benambra in the state’s northeast, which the Liberals hold with a margin of less than 10 per cent; the second is Ovens Valley, held by the Coalition partner with a margin of 16.6 per cent; and the third is South-West Coast, with a margin of 11 per cent.

While Noel Towell of The Age has the following:

The Coalition is losing this state election … Liberal Party elders Jeff Kennett and Michael Kroger are in denial, the first stage of political grief, while some of the people around Guy have moved onto anger and even the leader himself has been getting a little tetchy in recent days. But this is not over. Kennett has had a lot to say these past couple of days and even managed to be right about one thing; Victorian elections can confound the pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

195 comments on “Victorian election minus one week”

  1. The odds are too short for me to take at the moment. I still feel the ALP will win, but there is better money to be made at seat level.

  2. Food for thought!

    Peter Wicks ️‍

    @madwixxy
    2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Angus McAlpine still endorsed Greens candidate in Footscray.
    When the Libs found their Yan Yean candidate was in an anti–Muslim video they disendorsed her
    What state has @SamanthaRatnam got the Greens in when the Libs hold themselves to a higher moral standard?
    #auspol #springst

  3. The Liberals are unlikely to be bombarding what they believe to be a safe ALP seat, so either they are wrong about the seat or they see it as winnable, although maybe not at this election.

    Having said that, I think a uniform swing of the kind that would win the Liberals Sunbury is unlikely and that if they were to win it, it would be on a swing out of step with the rest of the state.

  4. Not surprised that the Liberals should be targeting Sunbury. The margin’s not big and there was a swing to them last time. Also, Labor kyboshed the creation of a separate City of Sunbury out of the City of Hume – it’s always seemed rather an odd combination to me. I suspect though that that explains the swing last time: it was pretty clear that a Labor government wouldn’t be up for it.

  5. A problem with the lack of polls on the Vic election is that means that any new poll lacks context.

    It was fairly easy to view the recent federal 52/48 Ipsos as being likely to be on the low side for the ALP due to the poll’s history, recent events being unlikely to have caused much of a shift, and the other polls pointing to a wider margin.

    My own guesstimate of the election night TPP is 53/47. This is based on the change in the federal TPP (as per BludgerTracker) since the middle of the year. As a rough guess, I’d say half of that widening has flown through to the state level.

    But it’s not much more than idle speculation while the poll drought persists.

  6. Gorks, i heard Labor internal polling was a bit better than public polls showed, but im not sure what polls specifically that was in relation to.

  7. Labor seems quitely confident , no sign of panic. Libs would wanna release some figures if things were looking up but we havent got that yet.

  8. Gorks @ #111 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 8:45 pm

    Labor seems quitely confident , no sign of panic. Libs would wanna release some figures if things were looking up but we havent got that yet.

    Guy visits the most marginal seat in Victoria for a friendly low key meet and greet and ends up with a drug dealer and a candidate who allegedly knows everything about drugs in the District (his words, as a senior police officer).

    I’d say Matt Guy has had a character challenging day!

  9. I’ve noticed with the ads on TV the Libs are putting the ‘don’t trust Daniel Andrews’ ad immediately before or immediately after Labor’s ad. It has happened twice tonight.

  10. Sort of ironic – here we are on Pollbludger, and no polls!

    Still holding out hope for ReachTel – last was done Oct 3rd and published 7th

    So if they polled spouse Friday 16tb, maybe tomorrow 20th is it?

    Pumpkin patch getting a bit lonely at night.

  11. The fact there has not been a single poll is just bizzare. The first weekend was the “long weekend” so it may have a reason to skip it. But they could have easily polled the last two.
    I doubt a news organisation would run a poll and then not publish it. Polls are expensive ( when done probably…. none of this robo poll nonsense).

  12. Poor polling for state elections is a growing trend. In 2014 there were truckloads of Victorian polls.

    Wonder if we might get something from Essential tomorrow as they have been doing state polling but not often releasing it prominently.

  13. Poor polling for state elections is a growing trend. In 2014 there were truckloads of Victorian polls.

    Wonder if we might get something from Essential tomorrow as they have been doing state polling but not often releasing it prominently.

  14. Interesting is the conditions applying to the granting of the liqueur license at the venue Guy and his Vpol candidate visited today and which the Vpol candidate frequents often (as a serving employee of Vpol)

    No doubt the “visit” was pre arranged and the subject matter (Federal issue?) was rehearsed

    But the real question is has the orchestrated event today evidenced the woman is acting in breach of the Terms and Conditions applying to the granting of the License?

    And, if she is acting in breach, should she be bailed and jailed?

    Q&A tonight with Sheridan and Hawke shows exactly why I will never vote “Liberal” again

    In regards Sheridan’s back handed comment re Shorten it is the economic agenda of the Liberal Party from Howard as treasurer that is the reason I do not vote Liberal

    I have detailed my views on these sites previously – including by reference to Wolfensohn, Stiglitz and others

    And, yes, each of our 5 children and their partners vote Labor – by their decision exclusively and for their own reasons which are diverse but with a common theme

    Whilst I refer to the theory they speak to impact

    In regards the Victorian State election my sources continue to support the odds on offer – but the caution I add that my sources are anti Kroger and the direction he, Bastiaan and Sukkar are taking the Victorian Division in

    To say they are relishing a wipe out to reclaim the control of the Division is probably not far from the truth

    And their views of Guy at best replicate my views of him

    Happy campers at the Victorian Division – and still no takers at the sought price for 104, in a falling market

  15. Any particular reasons for the poll drought?

    I guess there’s the conspiracy theory that media don’t want to publish polls in an election that’s a foregone conclusion because the punters will lose interest.

    Or the more direct idea that that polls cost money and it’s hard to get a return on them in state elections.

    I guess you can add to this that both sides have the incentive to talk up how close things are to keep the volunteers engaged.

  16. The absence of polling is interesting including because my wife responded to a survey 10 days or so ago

    There is Liberal robo calling by the Liberal Party – we are in a “safe” seat so it was of interest to receive the calls (yes, plural and on the land line)

    So anecdotal is the odds and my sources are confirmed by resource being deployed to a traditionally safe seat

    I must ask how they deploy this resource and if land line prefixes are targeted – therefore why in a traditionally safe seat?

  17. The behaviour of the Socialists in this election is beyond the pale.

    My friend’s 70 year old mother with a mobility disability was pounced upon by a VicSol at the Sydney Road prepoll who would not let her pass before she’d aggressively had her 10 minute spiel about preferences.

    Their behaviour at Thornbury prepoll was just as bad when I voted on the weekend.

    Their collective efforts made voting an extremely unpleasant experience for a lot of people. I am adamant that voting should be a positive experience for everyone. It’s civic duty that we should all be proud to participate in.

    So when some middle class white private school kids from Kew who got themselves suddenly woke harangue and harass people who’ve had it incalculably harder – my God it makes me mad.

  18. Curious: has anyone ever been robo called or polled on their mobile?

    In my family, work and social circles, almost no one has a landline anymore. If polling is reliant on landlines, that has to skew the results towards older people.

  19. Would it be correct to assume the marginal cost of robo-calls is close to zero? Therefore robo-calls in safe electorates doesn’t really signify much?

  20. I’ve had tons of polling calls to my mobile in the last month.

    Missed the calls for a few of them (including that 56-44 Ucomm one last week) and have participated in a couple such as the Goongerah Environment group one and an internal Liberal Party one specific to Prahran.

  21. I’m actually still undecided about my first preference on Saturday, and the candidate I chose as my first preference in both Prahran polls I participated in actually isn’t the one I’m leaning more towards now either. Being undecided for an election is a first for me and is the reason I haven’t gone to a pre-poll station.

  22. The odds have swung towards Labor in a lot of seats overnight. Carrum is 1.33, Frankston 1.55, Cranbourne is 1.33. Bass is 1.85 vs 1.85. Labor is favourite in South Barwon. Even Bayswater has reduce from 8 to 4.
    Prahran is now 2.6 Greens, 2.6 Liberal, 2.6 ALP. Suggesting a two thirds chance of going progressive.
    Despite the lack of public polls, the punters are backing Labor heavily. Either internal are leaking or professional punters have been told by a magic fairy which way the wind is blowing.

  23. Brad Battin, Lib MP, Gembrook, has used a photo of Shane Jacobson without his permission to promote the Libs. I believe the photo has since been withdrawn.

    Shane Jacobson

    Replying to @KieranRyan_ @BradBattinMP @LiberalVictoria
    I know nothing about this…… it’s a photo from 2 years ago….. wow!!!!!!

    Hazy Shift Worker

    Hi Shane, “Hands off CFA” was a Liberal fundraising campaign. They also used it to attack & vilify career firefighters. They will smash it out again this year. As you’re well known that photo will be posted by every LNP polly looking for cheap votes.

    @JoanBloggs
    20h20 hours ago

    If I were you I’d be contacting AEC over this. It has to be against the rules to use lies & propaganda to deceive electors & defame a popular celebrity?. They should be forced to retract it publicly though I’m sure your representatives are hot onto that. Give ’em hell Shane.

  24. @Gorks

    “Unless people with money have access to knowledge that punters like me don’t.”

    Not all people with money have access to this knowledge.

    But all the people with access to this knowledge *do* have money.

  25. On the other hand Richmond has shifted significantly to the Greens who are now $1.50.
    My guess is someone in the know has layed on some semi-serious money…. a few thousand bucks will adjust the odds. The pool is not that deep.

  26. B. S. Fairman @ #137 Tuesday, November 20th, 2018 – 11:42 am

    On the other hand Richmond has shifted significantly to the Greens who are now $1.50.
    My guess is someone in the know has layed on some semi-serious money…. a few thousand bucks will adjust the odds. The pool is not that deep.

    TAB has Greens at $2.05 and Labor a $1.70 in Richmond.

    You can do some nice arbitrage if your Greens @ $1.50 is true as Labor would have to be around $2.40 in that market.

  27. Latest terror scare must have the Liberals salivating, more than likely the police took no chances with this one. I feel there is a sizeable amount in the electorate who are undecided and this might be a tilting point in their decision on Saturday. Despite the fact that this nature of crime is more concerned with the Federal Government and law enforcement and security branches. It will be phrased by the LNP leaning media as further proof the Victorian Gov has taken the foot of the pedal and Andrews is weak on crime. Its absolute nonsense however it will help LNP and harm ALP And might be enough to not guarantee a majority in the Lower House…

  28. No one really knows how this terror incident and follow up stories will play. I remember people thinking that it would help Theresa May when multiple terror attacks hit during the election campaign.

    To be honest, if it wasn’t terror it would be African gangs, if it wasn’t that it would be something else. The fact is for last 4 years conservative media has been on attack mode.

    Labor has been focusing heavily on digital and social media which completely bypass the established media.

  29. Toby Esterhase @ #105 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 7:44 pm

    Not surprised that the Liberals should be targeting Sunbury. The margin’s not big and there was a swing to them last time. Also, Labor kyboshed the creation of a separate City of Sunbury out of the City of Hume – it’s always seemed rather an odd combination to me. I suspect though that that explains the swing last time: it was pretty clear that a Labor government wouldn’t be up for it.

    I started this thread of discussion without checking the margin – just annoyance at the number of calls that have disturbed us. From my point of view ALP rep Josh Bull should get back in. Sunbury out of Hume is now less of an issue as long as people understand that a stand alone Sunbury Council would be uneconomic without huge increases in population. We may have that in another 5-10 years anyway.

  30. Unitary State “i think the latest terror scare is the nail in the coffin for labor.”

    Get your money in champ. You’ll make a killing.
    sportsbet: ALP 1.20, L/NP 4.20
    BetEasy: ALP 1.15, L/NP 5.00
    bet365: ALP 1.14, L/NP 5.00
    Ladbrokes: ALP 1.17, L/NP 4.33
    Betfair: ALP 1.10, L/NP 7.80

  31. Most of the old Shire of Bulla probably should have been combined with most of the City of Kelor (the part that was not transferred to Moonee Valley).

  32. Those betting odds would give me greater cheer if I didn’t know the bookies had the Liberals at $1.01 for the South Australian election before last.

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