Victorian election minus one week

The Liberals continue to talk up their chances ahead of next week’s Victorian election, but betting markets appear unimpressed.

The Victorian election has been remarkably light on for opinion polls: the Herald Sun has had only the four YouGov Galaxy seat polls it has published over the past week; The Australian appears to be content with top-and-tailing the campaign with Newspoll results; and The Age has had precisely nothing. We do, however, have a uComms/ReachTEL poll conducted privately for the Victorian National Parks Association, although one might well look askance at the result, which credits Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44. After allocated results from a forced response follow-up for the 6.7% who were initially undecided, the primary votes are Labor 40.4% (38.1% in 2014), Coalition 36.8% (42.0%) and Greens 10.3% (11.5%). The poll was conducted on Tuesday from a sample of 1527.

Oddly enough, there has also been movement to Labor on the betting markets, with Ladbrokes now offering $1.18 on Labor to form government after the election, in from $1.25 a week ago, and the Coalition out from $3.50 to $4.33. Notable movements on Ladbrokes’ seat markets include “independent” – of which there are two, Jenny O’Connor and Jacqui Hawkins – being slashed from $13 to $4 in Benambra. This presumably has something to do with a report by Gay Alcorn in The Guardian relating that polling conducted for O’Connor showed Liberal member Bill Tilley’s primary vote falling below 40%.

Ladbrokes also has “independent” as favourite in the crowded field in Morwell, where Russell Northe is seeking re-election after quitting the Nationals, although it has little separating independent, Coalition (which could mean either the Nationals or the Liberals, both of whom are running) and Labor. It would seem there has also been money coming in on Labor to recover Northcote from the Greens – the latter are still favourites at $1.20, but this is out from $1.14 a week ago, and Labor has been cut from $5 to $3.75. Odds for each electorate are displayed on the bottom-right of each page of my election guide; if you would like your gambling losses to go to a good cause, you are encouraged to sign up to Ladbrokes using the links there or on the sidebar.

John Ferguson of The Australian offers the following assessment:

The word increasingly out of the Liberal camp is that it can win. Labor believes this is a deliberate attempt by the Coalition to inject some life into the Liberal campaign team and the media, and that the optimism is not backed by reality. Guy was campaigning yesterday morning in the seat of Wendouree, part of Ballarat, about an hour’s drive west of Melbourne, which until late this week was not much on people’s radar. Despite a pro-Labor margin of 5.7 per cent, the Liberals think it is a possible gain, something Labor is not prepared to concede. The Liberals remain optimistic they can pick up four seats in Melbourne’s sandbelt, starting at Frankston in the southeast, which has a margin of just 0.48 per cent. It is a crime seat. The other three seats the Liberal Party is talking up are Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc, all with margins of 2.1 per cent or under. But even on this scenario, the Coalition needs to pick up four more seats and so far the evidence of this happening has been lacking …

There are also at least three outlier seats that could cause the Liberal Party heartburn as independents try to unseat Guy’s candidates. The first is Benambra in the state’s northeast, which the Liberals hold with a margin of less than 10 per cent; the second is Ovens Valley, held by the Coalition partner with a margin of 16.6 per cent; and the third is South-West Coast, with a margin of 11 per cent.

While Noel Towell of The Age has the following:

The Coalition is losing this state election … Liberal Party elders Jeff Kennett and Michael Kroger are in denial, the first stage of political grief, while some of the people around Guy have moved onto anger and even the leader himself has been getting a little tetchy in recent days. But this is not over. Kennett has had a lot to say these past couple of days and even managed to be right about one thing; Victorian elections can confound the pollsters.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

195 comments on “Victorian election minus one week”

  1. I’m very much looking forward to ths outcome of this election as the Andrews Labor government have had some difficult situations through which they’ve been navigating. Hopefully, the result will provide an indication of the mood of voters in the whenever Federal election. Thanks.

  2. It will be fascinating to see what happens to the Greens. Have they peaked? It had looked like they were heading towards a solid block of 4-5 seats in inner Melbourne. Up here in Sydney, the Gs are in turmoil. The extreme “Left Renewal” faction has infiltrated the party and is using sexual harassment allegations to try to force out existing members. Let’s hope the Gs do decline-that would be a wonderful outcome for moderate reformist politics in Australia, and strengthen the probability of Labor governments.

  3. Where is the factional alignment in the Liberal Party today, noting the references to Kroger and Kennett?

    Then there is Bastiaan, toxic to the electorate per Se including factions within the Liberal Party and waiting until the election is behind us to resume his control which is down to infiltration – so much hated by the old guard who are outnumbered by those introduced by Bastiaan

    Any loss by the Liberal Party will open the floodgates – including with Cormack

    The information I am getting is that the Liberals are on the nose at State level also but I caution that this information is coming from anti Kroger elements – and they hate him with a passion you would not believe including not acknowledging him when at the same restaurant or walking down Collins Street

    Federal polling is said very strong for Labor in Victoria

  4. Parramatta Moderate you are indulging in a bout of wishful thinking if you think the Greens are on the way out. People like you have been saying such things for most of the nearly 30 years the Greens have been around as a political party. Any observer of politics would know all political parties have periods of ups and downs. For example, the ALP was in the political wilderness after the big split in their ranks, resulting in the old DLP. The latter then, for 23 years kept the diminished ALP in opposition by preferencing the Liberals for 23 years. Nowadays, it seems like the Liberals are in the process of unravelling and who knows what will emerge out of their present internal turmoil. All parties are made up of fallible human beings…..whether they are Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Greens etc.

  5. Parramatta Moderate you are indulging in a bout of wishful thinking if you think the Greens are on the way out. People like you have been saying such things for most of the nearly 30 years the Greens have been around as a political party. Any observer of politics would know all political parties have periods of ups and downs. For example, the ALP was in the political wilderness after the big split in their ranks, resulting in the old DLP. The latter then, for 23 years kept the diminished ALP in opposition by preferencing the Liberals for 23 years. Nowadays, it seems like the Liberals are in the process of unravelling and who knows what will emerge out of their present internal turmoil. All parties are made up of fallible human beings…..whether they are Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Greens etc.

  6. William,

    Is it only if I bet on elections when accessing Ladbrokes through your site, or do you get a cut if I access on Ladbrokes and bet on the races?

  7. Hello Robbo. I certainly don’t think the Gs will disappear anytime soon. Clearly there is a demographic in the inner suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne which is pretty strongly attached to them. The question is whether their support may dip somewhat, due to internal confict about personalities and policy tarnishing their brand, to the extent they can no longer knock off otherwise Labor seats in these cities. And would any such dip in their support be cyclical or structural? We’ll know more about that this time next week. Cheers

  8. I actually don’t think it so much is a reflection of the greens being on the nose or on the way out. It might actually be a reflection that the ALP is actually going alright at the moment. They have delivered reasonably well on their election promises and got a lot of stuff done. They didn’t agree to building the East-West link as they said they wouldn’t which would sway back a number of the inner city seats. Community consultation with projects at times could be improved, but at times the outcomes have outdone public expectation (vis skyrail). They are the first government in generations with a vision for what public transport could look like in 50 years time and if people actually bother to read the crime statistics, they will see that the party who likes to wear shady blue is really taking the piss. Thus the end result should reflect the ALP attracting votes from both left and right.

  9. I wouldn’t be confident in saying the Greens have peaked, but they’re certainly stalled at the moment. They might almost need a collapse in the ALP’s mainstream social democrat vote to attract voters (à la die Grünen slowly overtaking the SDP in Germany) beyond the 10%. But the ALP seem canny enough not to let that happen here.

    The Greens won’t go the way of the Aus Democrats anytime soon though. The missing link is probably a charismatic Bob Brown-type figure who can give them some kind of ideological focus.

  10. Notable that the Libs don’t seem to have brought up East-West Link in this campaign. Surely they’ve got it in the drawer still, but maybe they’ve accepted that Joe Voter actually didn’t want it.

  11. Here’s that John Ferguson piece from The Australian. Nothing but heavily hedged feelpinion. Can be safely ignored:

    Terrorism is as brutal as politics can be unpredictable. When news broke that Hassan Khalif Shire Ali had struck in Bourke Street, an ­uncontrollable wave of anxiety consumed the Victorian Labor machine.

    The uneasiness was evident in the eyes of Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews as he stood, slightly bewildered, with Graham Ashton as the Police Commissioner explained the enormity of what had unfolded.

    An African-born Victorian had killed the eighth person in Melbourne’s CBD in less than two years, with dozens of others injured in three incidents.

    Then Andrews’s week worsened. Shire Ali’s main victim was named the next day as a city legend, Pellegrini’s Sisto Malaspina, and by the end of the week two major court cases reached climaxes, with the original Bourke Street killer, James Gargasoulas, convicted of six counts of murder.

    This was followed by the lifting of the suppression order on a trial that was labelled Australia’s worst attempted terrorist attack.

    For Matthew Guy, who has led the Victorian Liberals for four years, the conjunction of cases presented him with a golden political opportunity, albeit within the context of the sort of grief and criminality that no one wanted.

    “You couldn’t write the f..king script,’’ a senior Labor MP said this week. “It was the post-Cup ­trifecta.’’

    Guy’s mantra for this year has been declining law and order under Andrews, spearheaded by claims that Labor has lost control of the streets.

    Every politician needs his “luck” and this week’s was Guy’s, throwing up a modern political script that could have been ripe for a remake of the 1997 black comedy Wag the Dog, where a war is fabricated by Hollywood to turn attention away from a presidential sex scandal.

    By 6pm next Saturday, 4.1 million Victorians will have gone to the polls in what is looming as the messiest election since Jeff Kennett was defeated in 1999, with Labor seizing power with the aid of three regional independents.

    This is a cost-of-living election but one of the core side issues is law and order. In many senses it is a hard election to read, even if it remains Labor’s to lose.

    The Greens have had an atrocious, accident-prone campaign but still may hold the balance of power, while several rural independents are poised potentially to be kingmakers and the Liberals’ federal brand remains as battered as ever.

    With Labor still quietly confident it will retain its majority or hold power as a Greens-backed minority, the Liberal Party is mounting a tactical offensive.

    The word increasingly out of the Liberal camp is that it can win. Labor believes this is a deliberate attempt by the Coalition to inject some life into the Liberal campaign team and the media, and that the optimism is not backed by ­reality.

    Guy was campaigning yesterday morning in the seat of Wendouree, part of Ballarat, about an hour’s drive west of Melbourne, which until late this week was not much on people’s radar.

    Despite a pro-Labor margin of 5.7 per cent, the Liberals think it is a possible gain, something Labor is not prepared to concede.

    The Liberals remain optimistic they can pick up four seats in Melbourne’s sandbelt, starting at Frankston in the southeast, which has a margin of just 0.48 per cent. It is a crime seat.

    The other three seats the Liberal Party is talking up are Carrum, Bentleigh and Mordialloc, all with margins of 2.1 per cent or under. But even on this scenario, the ­Coalition needs to pick up four more seats and so far the evidence of this happening has been lacking.

    There are 46 Labor seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, 37 Coalition, 3 Greens and two independents.

    A Herald Sun/YouGov Galaxy Poll published this week puts Labor in tight but winning positions in Frankston and Mordialloc. If this were replicated next Saturday it would be hard to see where Guy could pick up the necessary eight seats for an outright Coalition majority.

    “If you were Guy you would be talking up your chances,’’ a senior Labor figure says.

    “That’s a standard strategy but it doesn’t mean it’s real or that it’s going to happen.’’

    With 17 Labor seats on margins below 5 per cent, there is plenty of opportunity for Guy to make gains but the question will be how well Labor has sandbagged its position in up to 10 key seats.

    There are also at least three outlier seats that could cause the Liberal Party heartburn as independents try to unseat Guy’s candidates.

    The first is Benambra in the state’s northeast, which the Liberals hold with a margin of less than 10 per cent; the second is Ovens Valley, held by the Coalition partner with a margin of 16.6 per cent; and the third is South-West Coast, with a margin of 11 per cent.

    It is anyone’s guess who the independents would back if elected but Labor believes the first two could come in behind any minority Labor government.

    As well as talking up their chances in the sandbelt seats, which basically run down the eastern flank of Port Phillip Bay, the Victorian Liberals have adopted for the first time i360 software, a program that is credited with helping Donald Trump win the 2016 US election.

    The South Australian Liberals rave about its ability to record personal information about voters to enable candidates and campaigners to target personally the people who can swing the result in a seat.

    This new-wave technology is helping the Liberal Party deal with the increasing difficulty of targeting voters, particularly those who don’t have landlines and spend very little time watching free-to-air television or listening to the radio.

    It enables the Liberal Party to target younger voters on social media with direct intelligence about what is likeliest to sway votes.

    Then there is the counter-­narrative. This Labor version of events is easier to prosecute.

    All the published opinion polls point to a Labor win. The Liberal Party is still bleeding from some of its worst federal infighting. The Victorian Liberal Party is deeply, sometimes dysfunctionally, factionalised. The Liberals’ internal funding squabble has only recently been resolved and there have been signs that the Coalition has been at times too slow off the mark during the campaign.

    For evidence of this, consider its cute but clever mimicking of a policy that would hand struggling families cheap TVs and fridges to help reduce emissions.

    It’s a good idea, but why leave it so deep in the campaign, given the vast numbers of people who have already voted?

    Further, after eight years as ALP leader, Andrews is known to much of the Victorian community, but they are not entirely sure what they have with Guy.

    Labor has one of the richest infrastructure programs under way and while Andrews has been politically clumsy, there is no doubt that he is ambitious for his state.

    His core challenge in the next week will be trying to stop the law-and-order issue bleeding votes, evidenced by the media fascination with the life and times of Melbourne’s Bourke Street terrorist.

    Shire Ali was, fundamentally, a violent loser who had it coming.

    It’s unsettling, then, that he could have such an influence on a Premier’s future.

  12. Expat

    Michael Sukkar would normally be banging on about East-West Link, but the Liberals have hidden him away during this campaign.

    I think part of the reason for their silence is that it just reminds people how little the Coalition actually did during their last term.

    Whereas things like Skyrail, Melbourne Metro and the Mernda trainline extension are all very visible.

  13. Toby

    I think the reason the Herald-Sun aren’t running hard on that incident is that it has become very clear that the Federal authorities had much more incriminating information about him than Victoria Police did. So over emphasising the ‘missed opportunities’ is more a criticism of the Federal Coalition Government and the Minister ultimately responsible, Peter Dutton.

    Hence the quieter daily attacks in The Australian, unread by most readers of the Herald-Sun.

  14. Unless the ALP settles into a much more progressive stance than they have at the moment, it’s hard to see the Greens’ constituency disappearing any time soon, especially in the inner cities, although they might morph into a more broadly based Leftist party without the Green-environment-sustainability theme so central to their branding. Whether the ALP can move into that field depends on how successfully they can craft different messages to different constituencies while remaining credible overall. They seem to have been more effective at this so far in NSW (Albo/Plibersek) than elsewhere. The Andrews Government has done a reasonable job in crafting messages that play to the Greens’ inner city constituency. I think a lot of regular Greens voters would feel that while State Labor hasn’t given them everything they’d want, you could do worse. On this occasion I would not be surprised to see the Greens go backwards a little- especially in the Upper House given the effects of the dysfunctional GTV system: one of the more short sighted stances of State Labor has been to keep it – it will only get harder in a chamber with 8-10 MPs who owe their jobs to preference whispering.

    I’m generally a Greens voter myself so I’m not forecasting what I’d like the outcome to be, which would be a Labor minority government in a hung Parliament. But this time I’d be pleasantly surprised if that happened.

    Based on past trends,what is most likely to strengthen the Greens will be a future Federal ALP government that feels it has to chart a centrist course to resist the usual ferocious attacks from the Right and its corporate allies especially in the media. Turning back boats, gradualism in response to the climate emergency, welfare crackdowns and beating the drum on terror, are the sorts of Federal Government stances that are likely to support the next up cycle in the Greens’ electoral support.

  15. @ Rocket Rocket
    I think the idea that the attack unequivocally benefits the Coalition’s campaign is overly simplistic.
    I note that Ferguson refers to “the media fascination with the life and times of [the] Bourke Street terrorist” – I really don’t think it’s shared by the public, they’ve moved on.

  16. Greens doing everything to gelp Matthew Guy. Now they are demanding ministries in Labor government and opening attack lines on Labor.

    Just stay away because you are toxic as fuck so the progressive government can get re elected.l

  17. The Bourke St attack looked to most like it would be a massive free kick to the Libs.

    Two things though – we’re kind of numb to stupid things like this happening. The voters are angry, but they also feel like neither side can magically fix it, and they quickly realise the Potato Squad is as much to blame as anyone one the Vic side is.

    And then Morrison showed up, and the whole thing became gleeful point-scoring. Rule one of dealing with a tragedy – don’t make it look like you’re glad it happened.

  18. If you are going to register a protest vote in the inner city, there are much better options than the greens with their confused campaign based on gimmicks like five storey height limits, super bike highways and logging.

    Their are a number really well known independents and Fiona Patten’s party who actually campaign on important social issues and don’t have the party baggage to worry about.

  19. The Greens Party is saying “all options are on the table”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-18/greens-eye-off-minority-government-in-victoria/10507796

    In comments that are likely to fuel Coalition rhetoric, Ms Ratnam said there were different ways a government could be formed, including granting confidence and supply agreements or having positions in government.

    “All options are on the table, we would enter the negotiations with all those options on the table and we would see what would deliver us the best policy for the state,” Ms Ratnam said.

    “It’s very hard to imagine us working with the radical right wing, working with the Liberal Party whose policies seem to be moving more towards the right wing every single day, they are fanning the flames of division hatred and fear.”

    Judging by the bipartisan agreement to not reform the upper house voting system, it would appear Labor would prefer to risk an increase in the number of extreme right-wing parliamentarians rather than having Greens parliamentarians who advocate progressive policy positions.

  20. Re Reason Party:

    https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/biggest-socialist-election-campaign-our-generation

    Meanwhile, Fiona Patten’s Reason Party (formerly the Sex Party) has said that a vote for the Victorian Socialists risks electing a right winger.

    The other parties in the running for the last spot in Northern Metropolitan Region are Patten’s Reason Party, the Animal Justice Party and Hinch’s Justice Party.

    “This is absurd”, Jolly said in response, adding that it is Reason that is risking the election of far-right extremists because it is preferencing the conservative Liberal Democrats above the Greens and Labor in every upper house seat.

    Patten has done this before. In 2014, Sex Party preferences helped elect Shooters Party candidates in two seats and got another right-wing candidate from Vote 1 Local Jobs over the line against the Greens in the Western Victoria Region.

  21. If you are going to register a protest vote in the inner city, their are much better options than the greens with their confused campaign based on gimmicks like five storey height limits, super bike highways and logging.

    Their are a number really well known independents and Fiona Patten’s party who actually campaign on important social issues and don’t have the party baggage to worry about.

  22. Andrews has come out with an election promise to subsidise dental care for Victorian Govt school kids.

    Victorian Greens election platform includes: Community health by and for communities: working with and in communities to boost access to health and dental services:

    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/agv/pages/18664/attachments/original/1542162919/AGV_Community_health_and_dental.pdf?1542162919

    Andrews is continuing to put out policies in areas the Greens Party has long campaigned on, in efforts to sway inner city electorates where Labor is under threat from the Greens.

    That’s a good thing. It validates my position for supporting a third party advocating for inclusive and progressive policies.

  23. The most interesting thing about the Greens is the Inner city is growth in their vote has been slowing significantly. They have been with striking distance in Richmond, Brunswick and Melbourne since 2006, yet have only managed to win once.
    Brunswick is going to be interesting because the Reason Party have Catherine Deveny running who has a significant profile and will result in a lower primary vote for both the Greens and the ALP. I am of the opinion that the ALP might actually hold against expectations.

  24. Shock! Horror!

    The Herald-Sun editorial has said to vote Coalition (as it has every election ever)

    Victoria, it’s time for a change
    EDITORIAL Victoria should end the fighting and bitterness of the past four years and fortify our economic future with the election of a Coalition government led by Matthew Guy after a string of failures, scandals and poor policies from Daniel Andrews’ government.

    Funny, even in this blurb it doesn’t manage to say anything positive about Matthew Guy or the Coalition!

  25. Rocket Rocket .. to be precise, I think it’s the Sunday Herald-Sun which is editorialising in this way. Not sure if the weekday version has taken a stance or not – assuming for a moment that it might take a different stance to the Sunday edition.

  26. In 2014, The Age editorialised for Napthine. Which just shows you how little editorials count for — and how far a once proud newspaper has lost its way. (Seriously, who do they think their readers are?)
    The Age’s coverage of state politics doesn’t hold a candle to The Sydney Morning Herald’s. It also still has a bee in its bonnet after Farrah Tomazin was silly enough to leave her dictaphone lying around Labor’s state conference all those years ago. Otherwise, it’s standpoint oscillates between that of The Greens and a fervent desire for the resurrection of Dick Hamer.

  27. @Rocket

    FWIW there was one election where the Hun backed Labor in. I think it was 2002.

    The editorial started with the words “For the first time in our history, the Herald Sun is supporting the ALP to win the state election… etc”

    I sometimes wonder if there is actually someone out there, somewhere, who believes the Hun is anything besides a Liberal/IPA newsletter.

  28. @Toby

    The Age has editorialised for the Libs at probably 50% of recent elections. They def editorialised for Turnbull in 2016. Not sure about 2013, I think they made have backed Rudd over Abbott but don’t remember.

    Editorials mean bugger-all to voters though. At best just reinforcing those who are already rusted on.

  29. Newspaper editorials endorsements have not been worth a cent in a long, long time. In theory, the Sunday Edition could have a different opinion to the Weekday but that is doubtful.

  30. When are the Greens going to understand they are political death for any Labor minority government.
    It is beyond a joke that the Greens leader is speculating about getting ministry in Labor minority government.

  31. According to Kevin Bonham if everyone votes “1” above the line for the Upper House in South Metro the Greens could lose their seat to Sustainable Australia – nice name but lead by whackos

    Kevin Bonham and Antony Green say that “friends should get friends to vote for more than 5 candidates below the line” to negate the influence of preference whispherers and the preference feeding micro-parties

  32. When people grizzle about how low key the Victorian Elections are that is due to the News rooms being based in Sydney so we see really weird news stories that don’t match with our lived experience.

    Like African Gangs

  33. I want to see robo-polling banned within 3 weeks of an election as more than half the electorate will have Early Voted, often at the booth with easy parking which is probably not inside their electorate so probably a third of the votes cast will be absentee.

    How accurate is robo-polling when the same people are polled by each polling company each week? Does an element of mischief kick into respondents answers?

  34. The Sunday Age and Sunday Herald Sun have done their editorial recomendations (they have separate editors to the weekday editions), but there is still the regular editorials of each paper to come, I presume on Saturday, which are generally taken more seriously. The AFR and The Oz will also have there official recommendations. Just remember that Labor won in 2014 despite all four papers recommending Ted Baillieu being returned. The Guardian and The Saturday Paper do not do official editorial endorsements during elections.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Victorian_state_election,_2014#Newspaper_endorsements

  35. According to Murdoch’s Oz just now:

    “‘I’ll never sit down with them’
    12:43PM
    Victorian Premier refuses election pact offer from the Greens, saying the party has a “toxic cultural problem” with women.”

  36. The Guardian editors/journalists have a plethora of splinters in their collective bums from sitting on the fence. Their egregious spewing of false equivalence and bothsiderism, and whataboutism is bad enough in between elections but becomes nauseating during election campaigns. They shift into full-on superscillious mode. Policy differences which will significantly impact the future of the country or of a state are undeserving of their attention. Instead gaffes, stunts, personalities, bogus seat polls etc. are their adventure playground, their sources of amusement. I could name a dozen Pollbludgers from across the political spectrum who could provide more informative and sound analyses. Not to mention that Mr William Bowe’s essays are superior to the Guardian’s scribblers by a country mile.

  37. The Guardian has indeed been (surprisingly for me) pretty bad… They’ve been doing a really limp job of perpetuating the middle-ground-fallacy. Just f*kn call a spade a spade, they know their readers can’t stand Guy.

    The conservative side of the media (which is all of it) go in boots and all, the progressive outlets need to toughen up too or we’re screwed.

  38. Well if as Premier Andrews says the Greens have “a toxic culture problem with women”….how then does he explain the fact that of the current 8 state Greens MPs, 7 of them are women? Almost 90%??? Just another bit of mud slinging by the Labor party under siege in the inner city of Melbourne trying to fend of more Greens in Spring Street.

  39. @Robbo

    Putting aside what Andrews said about Greens, Labor has much higher % of women running as candidates.

    “The Greens performed surprisingly poorly on gender balance, with only 35% of their candidates being women (although all but one of their MPs are women, and a majority of their winnable seat candidates are women, so this likely reflects a difference in unwinnable low-profile contests. Labor did better with 47%, with the Liberal Party on 32.5%. The Animal Justice Party are the only party running a sizeable number of candidates who are running more women than men.”

    This is from Ben Raue’s website

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/36214

  40. Benambra is seriously excited to be getting so much attention from mainstream media this election, especially with such an axe to grind from feeling forgotten by Spring Street. With the high number of people opting for pre-polling, the VEC office in Wodonga (where many of the voters live) has become a very, very popular candidate hang-out. A long-time local commented that last week was the first time they’d actually seen incumbent Bill Tilley in the flesh, but in contrast they’d met PM Scott Morrison in town when he was treasurer and more recently Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is based in Bendigo. The independents, Jenny O’Connor and Jacqui Hawkins, and the Labor candidate, Mark Tait, are capitalising very nicely on their everyday community networks and ability to engage with one and all. There is also a general push-back about the long-term Liberal stronghold in the state seats either side of the Border and the noticeable endorsement given to incumbents by the local media (it is at the point where non-Liberal candidates are preferring to use outside sources to tell their stories). So, lots of interesting dynamics.

  41. ” Just another bit of mud slinging by the Labor party under siege “…. The Greens throw a fair bit of mud to the ALP as well… are they also “under siege”?

    Let’s put it down to “politics as usual”…. Especially in seats where the contest is between ALP and Greens (with the Libs excluded by the Progressive character of the seat), don’t be shocked to see open competition between ALP and Greens. What’s important, however, is that open competition in specific seats MUST not affect cooperation where the contest is between Libs and ALP or even between Libs and Greens… in such cases it’s the Libs that should go last in the ballot paper, no matter whether you are a Greens or Labor voter.

  42. While in rural seats large prepoll figures will help independents, it is also the case in Labor-held seats under independent challenge. Like in Melton where the high profile local independents campaign for a local hospital or Pascoe Vale with ex-Labor independent giving the seat a challenge.

    We will see how it goes but large prepoll definitely helps out minor and micro parties/independents.

  43. “The Guardian editors/journalists have a plethora of splinters in their collective bums from sitting on the fence”… Peter Lewis from Essential, who writes regularly for The Guardian and publishes Essential polls there, certainly does not sit on the fence. His Progressive stance is clear in his comments, just as I notice a subtle pro-Liberal stance here in William’s writing. But Peter is also called to produce his polls in the most objective and technically sound way possible, just as William must be careful to be as rational and objective as possible….. otherwise they will both lose credibility.
    I am relaxed with both of them, actually, and I provide my feedback when I feel the need to do so.

  44. I didn’t see any Liberal leaning in the way William writes his articles.

    Either way I can read Liberal leaning writers as long as it is not too partisan and the points made are sensible. Like PVO.

  45. Brilliant response by Andrews to Ratnam’s grandstanding on how they might attempt to hijack a minority Labor government. It is obviously not the real reason but it was cutting and very well deserved.

    The Greens political party have a “brand” in inner Melbourne that will not dissipate in a hurry, no doubt. What we are seeing though, whether or not this downturn is just cyclical or terminal, is there is no manifest destiny they fantacised about.

    The reason the Green’s “misogyny” problem is so damaging is it seriously erodes a core claim baked into that “brand” of superior political morality. Their rusted-ons will vote for them (including the political engaged and disengaged ones) but how will the “swinging” red/green voter respond to a very progressive labor government and Greens political party that has failed to endorse a misogynist rapper?

    If the Greens do badly in this election the recriminations will be biblical. How will they cope and regroup?

    The difference with the parties of government is there is a clear organising objective that ensures that internal tensions and contradictions (people or policy) can be dealt with with-out the whole thing permanently imploding apart. Ultimately people are keenly aware of the stakes of winning and losing.

    What is the Greens organising objective? To win inner city seats and engineer and hijack minority Labor governments? Are all Green’s people on board with that? Are they all content that this basically ensures they have fundamentally become an inner city party of the bourgeois left?

    The were clearly a lot of Greens political party activists that preferred Labor holding onto Batman than having Blathal hold the seat. The same with Richmond at a state level. How many are fuming at Ratnam’s failure to disendorse the rape rapper?

    To assume this all holds together if they end up with less numbers than they currently have is very optimistic in my book. There’ll be a lot of angry people after all this

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