Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from the latest Ipsos poll, although it adds to a picture of deteriorating personal approval for Scott Morrison.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.

Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.

The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

672 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. zoomster
    So you expect me to go to more effort on the issue than you were prepared to?
    Hypocrite.
    ___________________
    You managed to annoy me with this line of attack for half an hour a few weeks ago and have tried it continually since. Not gonna work sorry. 🙂

  2. D&M

    Excellent post on Ireland and Brexit. The point about going from the third world to the first world is valid for a variety of formerly ‘fringe’ european states. You can see it in the settlement patterns – all over europe villagers have left the poverty of their rock-laden terraces behind.

    The Far Right and the Far Left ideologues simply do not want to know about the vast force for good that the EU has been for hundreds of millions of europeans. They do not want to know about the way in which the EU has forced the growth of democracy, the rule of law, accountability, sound governance and civil society across the country. Compared with what has happened over the past three millenia in Europea, it is a magnificent achievement.

    GG
    Your point about Brexit being the resumption of history is a good one, IMO. The live question is whether it is the resumption of Empire, aka the Brexiteers dream of the golden era, the ‘Global Britain’ or the long-term destiny of an off-shore island drifting quietly into the sunset. IMO, the answer to that one is not too hard on current trends.

    The possible straws in that wind are waving… Ireland may be united some time within the next decade in which case the EU border with England in that neck of the woods will be solved.. Scotland may secede and join the EU which will set up a new land border between England and the EU.

    The City, that vast motor of British wealth, will survive – it has always been agile and innovative – but in a vastly truncated form, with very large amounts of its business offshored. On behalf of the British Treasury it has clipped monstrously large flows of capital into and out of the EU and the rest of the world. It fed sixty billion quid a year into British hospitals, schools and social housing. The EU will change the rules until the City is cut out of the rivers of gold.

    The English elements of pan-european supply chains will mostly be off-shored for all sorts of excellent economic reasons – not least of which is the huge sovereign risk represented by the English themselves. Large numbers of talented english people will flee to where the grass is greener. The latter is already happening. I met such a couple down my street the other day.

    In the short term May, Mogg, Corbyn, Johnson & Whatever Main Chancers climb the greasy pole of Westminister, may be able to slow capital flight by waving through the Muddle Through Agreement.

    But the Draft Agreement is essentially only a series of delays in the resumption of the march of history. This was, and is not, inevitable. The English have real choices. Their leaders have real options.

  3. nath:

    [‘If it’s not meant to be taken literally, what’s the point of it, or of calling yourself an adherent?’]

    Crucially the Bible offers eternal life. The learned ones know this is BS, but in order to keep the common folk compliant, the notion of life after death was perpetuated.

    It was rumoured, for instance, that Bertand Russell was once asked what he wanted from the Bible. His answer: “Evidence”.

  4. DG
    I have an extensive set of scots relatives on the distaff side and I am reasonably sure that they would take an extremely dim view of their savings being trashed by some MMT folk printing money in order to pay UJG folk to paint the Highland rocks white, exchange Glasgow kisses or toss cabers.

  5. Tom
    says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 9:41 pm
    Cud Chewer @ #568 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 9:08 pm
    William I might be a lone voice but Pamela does nothing for me.
    __________________________________
    She had a beautiful youth, most are not as lucky.

  6. nath:

    [‘It’s like people proclaiming themselves members of the ALP and committed to social justice yet…’]

    That’s a bit unfair. Most Labor people I know, at least at the ground roots level, have a highly developed sense of social justice – unlike dem damn awful Tories.

  7. Mavis, we need a bit more of this:

    30 years ago, child poverty was reduced by 30 per cent. This year marks 30 years since former Prime Minister Bob Hawke made the commitment that “no child will be living in poverty’’. This statement was criticised as too ambitious, but the reforms his government introduced reduced child poverty by 30 per cent. The key reforms of the Hawke government included: » A new supplement for low-income families to help meet the cost of living » Increasing existing family payments to reflect the cost of children » Linking family payments to wage growth, to maintain pace with the cost of living and community living standards. » Rent assistance to help families and others on low incomes to cover the cost of rent.

  8. nath:

    When Hawke said that no children would live in poverty, he knew he had exaggerated. But is was right to set a target. Thanks for detailing his achievements.

  9. Mavis Smith
    says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 10:03 pm
    nath:
    When Hawke said that no children would live in poverty, he knew he had exaggerated. But is was right to set a target. Thanks for detailing his achievements.
    _______________
    More than happy to. When it comes to social justice they did an excellent job.

  10. “His comments that he had plenty of mates offering to be special envoy to Pamela Anderson were on FM radio …”

    Frack me dead. Has the world gone mad?

    Don’t get me wrong. I hate ScoMo – mainly for his opportunism in opposing the Malaysian solution.

    That said, how those comments smutty, lewd or even containing sexual innuendo?

    FFS Ms. Anderson has made a career in an industry that is largely about projecting sex appeal. Especially concerning actors cast in roles not for any particular discernable acting talent. Both men and women. it is stating the bleeding obvious that Pamela has benefited from that and continued to seek to profit from her time as THE sexual headline of the 1980s, including lending herself to be the sexual punchline in the particularly gross albeit funny Borat movie and in more recent times posting provocative images of her and her beloved Julian on social media.

    One might be excused for thinking that she has exercised an actual agency – even in recent times – as setting herself up as a walking sexual punchline. But if so, I’d say that ScoMo didn’t even “go there”.

    Imagine if the actor lobbying ScoMo was a leading male Hollywood actor and ScoMo made a similar comment concerning his female acquaintances volunteering to be a special envoy to say George Clooney? The joke would work just as well and would not invite a thunder of criticism.

    It’s not as if ScoMo made any suggestion of what his mates might want to “do” with P. Anderson. Or engaged in some feeble double entendre about her physical attributes. Nothing.

    I reckon most folk would volunteer to be a “special envoy” to their Hollywood idol of choice (a reference which I think was just a rift on the two “special envoy” roles ScoMo has actually announced) and I fail to see the sexism, let alone “smut” in ScoMo making that joke.

    Personally I’d love to be the special envoy to Charlize Theron (clearly I am not woke to the outrageous sexism that comment obviously entails), whereas my sister would like to be special envoy to George Clooney – she has a particular mission in convincing George that his wife is too skinny and he needs something more substantial to hold onto … but I digress.

    Of course there is a huge amount of cant involved in P. Anderson’s allegations – who can ignore her hypocrisy given that her “beautiful Julian” voluntarily breeched his bail when facing serious sexual misconduct charges against women.

    The less said about Lisa’s article, the better. This is not some #metoo moment. …

  11. Andrew_Earlwood
    Personally I’d love to be the special envoy to Charlize Theron (clearly I am not woke to the outrageous sexism that comment obviously entails),
    _________________________
    Hey, I’ve been lobbying for that position for 18 years! back off.

  12. “Hawkie stuffed up the speech”… That was 1987, he truly believed that the ALP Neoliberalism-light would solve all our problems, including that of child poverty…. The speech was consistent with his and Keating’s beliefs…. the problem is: They were WRONG!

  13. Just wondering why anyone would see Pamela Anderson as being a person worth drooling over.

    She appears to be a caricature of herself. And not too bright, either, if she reckons Assange is worth the effort.

  14. Charlize Theron was going to film Mad Max in Broken Hill where I spent a lot of time each month back then. But it rained too much so they moved the filming location to Africa. It was a sad day.

  15. If Julia had said “under a ‘Labor’Govt I lead” she would not have been bashed over the head with that statement for years after.

    Dangerous for Scummo yapping on about anything and everything, assisted at every opportunity by the likes of Pyne and Abbott. I suppose the fake news path will be the excuse.

    Bill handling all the ‘gotcha’ questions and sending his message via numerous town hall meetings is a good move. That avoids giving statements that come back to haunt.

  16. My late husband thought that any woman who resorted to adding silicon to parts of her body to enhance her appearance wasn’t worth bothering oneself about. Though, to each his own.

  17. “The key reforms of the Hawke government included: » A new supplement for low-income families to help meet the cost of living » Increasing existing family payments to reflect the cost of children » Linking family payments to wage growth, to maintain pace with the cost of living and community living standards. » Rent assistance to help families and others on low incomes to cover the cost of rent.”….
    ….. and official unemployment for the parents of those children that peaked at about 11%….. because Hawke-Keating introduced a form of Neoliberalism-light. Fortunately, as you noted, the also introduced some Social Democratic initiatives, but theirs was Neoliberalism-light nonetheless. Thanks goodness Shorten and the current ALP have abandoned the evil doctrine.

  18. There will be a few people here who have choked on their nightcaps when Alex Hawke proclaimed Bill Shorten’s Labor to be the most left wing government in Australian history. Got a big laugh from the audience, but also applause – no doubt from the rusted on Coalition supporters who would still support this mob even if they were all exposed as a pedophile ring!

  19. I thought Dreyfus’ “socialism” was not the same as the questioner’s “socialism”.

    Alex Hawke sees “socialism” as anything that the Liberal Party does not, from time to time, hold as a policy.

    The young Vietnamese guy sees “socialism” as Communism, waging war.

    Who knows what “socialism” is?

    The only disappointing aspect of Dreyfus’ reply to the question was that he didn’t remind Hawke of what the political Right is capable of. 6,000,000 Jews comes to mind, and 20,000,000 Russians. Changes to Negative Gearing rules pale by comparison with that.

  20. ScoMo is no different to any other Liberal Leader.

    Bevan Shields
    ‏Verified account @BevanShields
    30s31 seconds ago

    Breaking: Scott Morrison for first time confirms he will cut Australia’s migration intake.

    “The roads are clogged, the buses and trains are full. The schools are taking no more enrolments. I hear what you are saying. I hear you loud and clear.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/enough-enough-enough-scott-morrison-says-he-will-cut-australia-s-migration-intake-20181119-p50h1e.html … #auspol

  21. I honestly don’t care what thoughts run through men’s minds about Pamela Anderson. She’s spent her professional life making hay while that particular sun has shone. What got up my nose was Morrison doing the FM jerk schtick. I just pine for the days when politics was about….politics.

    In this age of always on politicians living out their political life as some sort of ersatz reality tv show, I just wish that our national leaders would connote gravitas, thoughtfullness, warmth and empathy for the concerns of the people, then offer solutions for what ails us, existential and actual.

    Not the equivalent of the guy at the party who gets pissed and starts trying to light his farts.

  22. ““His comments that he had plenty of mates offering to be special envoy to Pamela Anderson were on FM radio …”

    Frack me dead. Has the world gone mad?

    Don’t get me wrong. I hate ScoMo – mainly for his opportunism in opposing the Malaysian solution.

    That said, how those comments smutty, lewd or even containing sexual innuendo?”

    Andrew, his actual words were that he had lots of mates who wanted to be special envoy and ‘go and sort her out’ (nudge, nudge, wink, wink – ‘SORT her out’ if-you-know-what-i-mean).

    If Ms Anderson reckons the words were inappropriate, then I don’t think blokes like us get to decide differently. he should apologise. and stop wearing fucking caps. inside. does he admire trump? does he think australians admire trump. (sorry – I’m watching the news now and he’s wearing a fucking cap. inside).

  23. ScoMo playing battleships in his bathtub with an aircraft carrier this time, plus yet another hat and a pair of barbeque tongs.

    Jesus wept.

  24. “Not the equivalent of the guy at the party who gets pissed and starts trying to light his farts.”

    what sort of parties do you go to?

  25. FauxMo new three word slogan had a test run on the blue bus

    Listening
    Hearing
    Doing

    Yes, the roads in Sydney are clogged. But everyone blames GladysB’s developer mates and hopeless infrastructure implementation. Light rail anyone?

  26. “The roads are clogged, the buses and trains are full. The schools are taking no more enrolments. I hear what you are saying. I hear you loud and clear.”

    Or, you could spend money on building the infrastructure people want. Like schools, train lines and bus lanes on roads for all the new buses and trains that you buy to accommodate the people that need them.

    Just a thought.

  27. Unfortunately I missed her name, but this young ABC reporter covering the Banking RC is very, very good.

    Thank God they got rid of Ticky Fullerton.

  28. Hawke equates Bernie Sanders with millions being slaughtered, goes through un-challenged. I’d forgotten what a truly crap show QANDA was.

  29. That Morrison ‘statement’ on immigration is just so typical Morrison.

    Full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

    Will spend days walking back his captain’s call.

    He is making McMahon look better every week.

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