Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from the latest Ipsos poll, although it adds to a picture of deteriorating personal approval for Scott Morrison.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.

Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.

The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

672 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Douglas and Milko @ #549 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 8:46 pm

    GG,

    There’s a lot of hand wavering going on. But, the Brits survived a long time without being integrated to Europe.

    History says the Brits will plow on regardless of confected rules to stop them.

    Totally happy to see the Brits go their own way, but can they just leave the Republic of Ireland alone. If at the end of the day the Brits insist on reinstating the hard border between NI and the republic, I guess the Republic is probably up to it, because there is no other way Brexit is going to happen.

    Let’s just hope the bombs do not start again.

    More hand wavering and strawman arguments.

    I just see Brexit as the resumption of history.

  2. Thanks Douglas and Milko for your perspective on Ireland and Brexit. You give me a glimpse into the issues and emotions of the situation. Do you have any feeling for the possibility that NI could boot out the DUP and seek re-unification with the Republic?

  3. Daniel Sutton
    ‏Verified account @danielsutton10
    2h2 hours ago

    Police have now charged Jarryd Hayne with “aggravated sexual assault – inflict actual bodily harm on victim” @10Daily @10NewsFirst

    Another elitist sport star bites the dust.

  4. Vaguely amusing experiment…

    …presentation centred on an example of how Intel tried to motivate workers in one of its computer chip-making factories. The workers were doing a four-day week, and Intel decided it would pay a $30 bonus on the first day of the week, if a certain production target was hit, to kick the week off on a good foot.

    Ariely provided some advice and the workforce was split into four groups to allow an experiment to be run. A quarter of the workers were paid the $30, a quarter were given a $30 pizza voucher (Ariely wanted to send a $30 pizza to their home, but this was too complex), a quarter were sent an encouraging text message from their boss and the last group were given nothing.

    The results were fascinating. Cash worked well on the day, but then output plummeted. Pizza better than cash on day one, and output fell more gradually across the other three days. The verbal reward also did better than cash on day one, and the motivation of these workers stayed highest across the week.

    Ariely’s point was that money is not the motivator many think it is. Incidentally, he offered to apply the lessons to the bonus scheme of Intel’s executive, but he says they were quite cool on the idea.

    https://www.afr.com/brand/chanticleer/meet-dan-ariely-the-hedge-fund-star-who-never-looks-at-financials-20181117-h180n2

  5. Dog’s Breakfast

    A welcome laugh in election week (back in NSW away from the action!)

    I remember Roy and HG giving their marks for some Olympic diving mishaps as “DB” or the even worse “DB with pike” !

  6. It was amusing when Kristina Keneally said ‘I am a Catholic scholar.’
    There is nothing scholarly in believing that a middle eastern carpenter was the son of god or that Thomas Aquinas regularly levitated. Or as the Catholic apologist G.K Chesterton wrote:

    “His experiences included well-attested cases of levitation in ecstasy; and the Blessed Virgin appeared to him, comforting him with the welcome news that he would never be a Bishop.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Aquinas

  7. This has the makings of the divisive SSM plebiscite, somewhat analogous to Clinton’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy for US LGBTI servicemen and women.

    ‘Asked if a gay teacher at a Catholic school could get married without being fired, Archbishop Comensoli suggested it would depend on how visible their relationship was at the school and whether the teacher would still publicly support the school’s teachings.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/archbishop-of-melbourne-suggests-gay-teachers-more-acceptable-if-they-live-far-away-from-school-20181119-p50gy6.html

  8. Mavis Smith @ #558 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 4:58 pm

    This has the makings of the divisive SSM plebiscite, somewhat analogous to Clinton’s “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” policy for US LGBTI servicemen and women.

    ‘Asked if a gay teacher at a Catholic school could get married without being fired, Archbishop Comensoli suggested it would depend on how visible their relationship was at the school and whether the teacher would still publicly support the school’s teachings.’

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/archbishop-of-melbourne-suggests-gay-teachers-more-acceptable-if-they-live-far-away-from-school-20181119-p50gy6.html

    As so often with religion, reality, seems to be the problem!!! 🙂

  9. nath:

    I think you’ll find that most scholarly clerics – privately at least – don’t interpret the Bible literally; that’s just for the great unwashed.

  10. sprocket I don’t have a huge issue with Fran. I do have an issue with some of the content of her show and I mostly blame the ABC management culture and producer for this.

  11. Lisa Wilkinson doesn’t miss ScoSmutty with this piece… and 2 observations:

    1. Ch 10 under CBS ownership is moving away from the dead hand of the Murdoch’s and Big Gina
    2. FauxMo has a woman problem.

    ““Lewd” and “smutty” were just two of her allegations. And she continued, outlining her account of how an Australian Prime Minister appeared completely uncaring that an Australian citizen seems at serious risk of being thrown under a passing US bus, with an orange jumpsuit and a holiday in a little place called Guantanamo Bay thrown in for good measure.

    I know, I know.

    His comments that he had plenty of mates offering to be special envoy to Pamela Anderson were on FM radio — that place where politicians with falling poll numbers go to try and appeal to millennials and show their “I-was-once-a-teenager-too” side. Hey, he might have even inhaled — though in ScoMo’s case I don’t think so.

    And hey, let’s face it, Pammy did run on the beach in a red bathing suit for the cameras. So that makes anything she says irrelevant and her fair game for sexual innuendo, right PM? She is just asking for it!

    And I know, too, that your comments were meant as a “joke”, and because YOU think it was a joke, we’re are all meant to laugh along with you, with a bit of a nudge-nudge wink-wink, we know what you really mean PM . . .

    Because to do anything other than laugh along with your “joke” means being accused of not having a sense of humour. Particularly if we are female. We get it.

    The problem is, we don’t think you get it.

    https://tendaily.com.au/views/a181119utw/lisa-wilkinson-why-scomo-should-apologise-to-pamela-anderson-and-every-woman-20181119

  12. Late Riser

    Do you have any feeling for the possibility that NI could boot out the DUP and seek re-unification with the Republic?

    I will take this question on notice, as I am still trying to figure this out myself. It was interesting being able to read the conversation on Poll Bludger today while on public transport / walking the dogs (mindfulness, what is that anyway), but not being able to give a quick pithy answer. It has made me think a lot more deeply about what is really going on.

    I think that NI could boot out the DUP, although tribalism is rampant there. If I had to suggest a way forward, I would push for NI to be a special economic zone within the UK, remaining in the EU customs and people movement zone, but not politically united with the Republic. There are excellent economic and social reasons for pushing for this.

    Then younger generations, who have not been brought up in the tribal mentality, can finish the unification of Èire.

    I was brought up in the tribal mentality, and although I escaped it, I understand how deeply divisive it is.

  13. Snap there Zodi!

    And William, never having watched BayWatch, I don’t know what all the fuss is about? Can you enlighten us? 🙂

  14. WB

    Unless you’re a real-world, fair-dinkum red-blooded Aussie bloke, how would you know??

    Geez, mate, have you ever skulled a tinnie and then put it on your head? If not, what right have you to comment?*

    * I haven’t either, so I can’t.

  15. Zoidlord says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 8:52 pm
    Daniel Sutton
    ‏Verified account @danielsutton10
    2h2 hours ago

    Police have now charged Jarryd Hayne with “aggravated sexual assault – inflict actual bodily harm on victim” @10Daily @10NewsFirst

    Another elitist sport star bites the dust.

    Elitist sports star, Only in his dreams.

  16. More from that Huffington Post article about Nick Ross, the ABC, the NBN.

    “When it came to doing the ABC’s pre-election guides to party policies, the NBN one was done without me. It looks like it came from Malcolm Turnbull’s office. When I spoke to the creator of it (I forget who) about the fact we’d posted something that we knew was untrue, he said the team had decided to go with a ‘he said she said’ line to avoid trouble,” Ross wrote.

    And that sums up much of what is wrong with ABC’s “journalism”.

  17. The simple fact is the ABC is extremely bias to the left wing side of politics. Sky News to 6pm is fairly well balanced to both sides. After 6pm or after dark, the Sky lineup is a disgrace, Murdoch has loaded Abbott loving presenters which would virtually not change one single swinging voter’s preference. The difference of course is Sky News is privately funded and can have a nut-job line-up after dark, the ABC is funded by all taxpayers and right wing taxpayers pay a much greater share than left wing taxpayers of the ABC’s budget. It would be great for even a small period of time to see a commentator from the right host a show such as Media-Watch or Q&A so we can have a different perspective of things.
    The most obvious evidence of bias is the lack of personnel within the ABC with views from the right, can someone name all the right wing presenters on TV and Radio, I can’t identify any, and I will name all the left wing presenters on the ABC, and my list will be pages long.

  18. Mavis Smith bMonday, November 19, 2018 at 9:04 pm
    nath:
    I think you’ll find that most scholarly clerics – privately at least – don’t interpret the Bible literally; that’s just for the great unwashed.
    _____________
    If it’s not meant to be taken literally, what’s the point of it, or of calling yourself an adherent?

    Then again, maybe you are onto a deeper truth. It’s like people proclaiming themselves members of the ALP and committed to social justice yet quite willing to send single mothers to the poverty line for a bit of motivation. Very neo-liberal of them.

  19. William Bowe @ #565 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 9:06 pm

    On top of anything else — how many real-world fair-dinkum red-blooded Aussie blokes have made a sleazy comment about Pamela Anderson at any point in the past 15 years?

    I do not class myself as a real-world fair-dinkum red-blooded Aussie bloke, and nor have I made a sleazy comment about Pamela Anderson at any point in the past 15 years.

    Where does that put me in the scheme of things?

    And what about real-world fair-dinkum red-blooded Aussie sheilas, do they exist in your scheme of things?

    Or is it all about men?

  20. At least we don’t have Dotard giving us advice on how to manage bushfires …

    “Mr Trump first seemed to raise the idea of raking a few days before he made the comments to the California officials in a burnt-out caravan park in the fire-ravaged city of Paradise.

    Before he flew to California, Mr Trump mentioned it in an interview with Fox News at the White House.

    The US President reportedly watches hours of cable television each day, especially Fox News, and has been known to tweet about topics he just saw on TV.

    “I was watching the firemen the other day and they were raking areas,” Mr Trump said.

    “The fire was right over there and they were raking trees, little trees like this, nut trees, little bushes that you could see were totally dry, weeds.

    “And they’re raking them and they were on fire and that should have been all raked out and you wouldn’t have had the fires.”

  21. I didn’t mind watching Bay Watch despite the shallow storylines and poor acting. However my favorite character was the brunette. But yes Pamela was offer the butt of many tastelessness comments back then.

    Guilty William.

  22. nath

    Your posts appear to consist of comments on subjects your comments make it clear you know next to nothing about.

    Why not try talking about stuff you actually know about, for a change?

  23. Douglas and Milko

    NI to be a special economic zone within the UK, remaining in the EU customs and people movement zone, but not politically united with the Republic.

    Thanks again. I’ve learned something today. That makes it a good day. And I’ll think on what you’ve said here.

    (Good night all)

  24. zoomster
    says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 9:20 pm
    nath
    Your posts appear to consist of comments on subjects your comments make it clear you know next to nothing about.
    Why not try talking about stuff you actually know about, for a change?
    ________________________________
    I know there were huge arguments in caucus over this at the time and Shorten has apologised for the policy so maybe get in touch with HQ and get updated directions on what to think about it.

  25. nath

    ‘… so maybe get in touch with HQ and get updated directions on what to think about it.’

    So you expect me to go to more effort on the issue than you were prepared to?

    Hypocrite.

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