Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from the latest Ipsos poll, although it adds to a picture of deteriorating personal approval for Scott Morrison.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.

Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.

The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

672 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar,

    The population of Scotland is around 5.4 million. That ranks it with Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland and Croatia. An independent Scotland (independent of Britain) would almost certainly be part of the EU. Maybe it would adopt similar military policies. I also note an up-tick in talk of a European army. Though I think we’re toying with ideas that would play out in the decades, not years.

  2. Boerwar says:
    I came across this sort of process in a past life in some international negotiations with which I was engaged on behalf of Straya’s National Interest.
    _____________________________________
    Was that when you and Les Patterson strutted the global stage in tandem?

  3. LR

    Scotland occupies some very strategic territory in terms of access by Putin to the North Atlantic. No doubt there would be some sort of win win.

    Perhaps the french force de frappe could have an outlier at Portree on Skye?

  4. Boerwar

    The Barnier team’s first task in the negotiations was to set up a negotiating frame, enunciate some broad principles, identify some possible red lines. It developed this in full consultation with the 27 countries, including the Republic of Ireland.

    Hmm. That would point the finger back at May, her decision to go to an election, her decision to work with the DUP to stay in power, and deals that may or may not have been made.

    Thanks for the background.

  5. Unless my ears were playing up while I was listening to the ABC 24 hours news station on the radio they were talking about an Ipsos 53/47, not 52/48.

  6. @Socrates…..I don’t think it was the swearing as much as the tabs of LSD and the pot he had in his backpack that he was punished for.
    (I’m not having a go at you personally when I say this ) I wonder if it was a young Lib doing the same at Shorten and the cops intervened and found the drugs,what would the response here been?

  7. William Bowe says Monday, November 19, 2018 at 3:43 pm

    Fran Kelly “was involved in the feminist movement and marched in anti-nuclear, environmental and Aboriginal rights rallies in her youth”, but says she is not an activist now, as “once you become a journalist you can’t be an activist”. The present government has gutted the organisation to which she has devoted most of her professional life, and its efforts at interfering with its political coverage have been central to perhaps the greatest organisational crisis it has ever faced. Yet there are people out there who are that stupid that they’re happy to type up this sort of thing and have it published in a place where many people will read it, apparently without a hint of embarrassment. If not for my experience as publisher of this site, I literally would not have believed that this could be true.

    It’s amazing how many people there are who believe that journalists who don’t espouse the correct point of view must be biased.

    It is not the job of journalists or commentators, whether at the ABC or elsewhere, to get the ALP elected.

    (News on the other hand does seem to have a policy to prevent the ALP’s election).

  8. Late Riser

    Interesting discussion on Ireland today. I am still of the opinion that only Ireland (both bits) can make Brexit work. Is it fair to say that May is negotiating at the wrong table?

    I am a joint Australian / Irish citizen, and so I have been following this very closely.

    You are correct that only Ireland, North and the Republic, can make it work. But there is little chance of this while th eDUP supports the UK government.

    The Republic of Ireland (Èire) just wants to be left in peace, to be part of the EU, as it has been since the inception of the EU. Ireland joined the EEC in 1973. The EU has worked well for Ireland, and has within my lifetime, turned it from a third-world country (albeit with a high level of education and emmigration) to a first world country which is refreshingly normal these days. And the Irish are only too aware of this.

    When I took my mother there in 2007, while I was working there, she told everyone she met that she was disappointed that the Old Ireland was disappearing. She got weird looks, and comments such as “it only disappeared a few years ago, and good riddance to its priest-ridden squalor”. Or watered down versions of this.

    So, the Republic does not under any circumstances wish to jeopardise the politically independent (not members of NATO, press are obliged to report without bias), prosperous, secular country they have build out of poverty, and to be honest oppression – until 1922, the use of Gaelic was forbidden. They also do not want a return to the “trubbles”. A hard border between north and south will bring back the sectarian violence, because there are always misguided violent thugs who love the excuse to blow things up, on both sides of the religious divide. It will also be a major pain in the arse for people living on the North side of the border while working in the South or vice-versa. I know at least one person who does this.

    The Irish (Republicans) did not vote for Brexit, and want no part of it. They can rightly veto any Brexit proposal that includes a hard border between North and South. In fact the Republic has wanted to join the Schengen zone for a long time, but has not because it would have meant the need for a hard border between north and south.

    A good compromise from the point of view of the Republic would be to keep NI in the customs unions, keep the border open, and let the UK work out how to stop people and goods being funnelled through NI to the rest of the UK to avoid customs and immigration checks.

    However, the DUP will have none of this, and they are the only thing keeping May / the Tories in government. They insist that NI must not in anyway be treated any differently to the rest of the UK. They also do not want a hard border between north and south. Their solution is to make the Republic of Ireland have extra customs and immigration checks between continental Europe and Ireland, putting the UK / EU border effectively in the Channel / North Sea.

    In fact the above will not work unless the Republic bars the free movement of goods, money and EU citizens entering Ireland. So effectively the Republic is then constrained in its cultural and economic activities by whatever is decided in Westminster. This is what the DUP really want – to effectively unify Ireland on their terms.

    Apart from the fact that the Republic neither would nor should agree to this, it would plunge Ireland back into poverty.

    And for those of you from the far left on this blog who think that this is an acceptable price to pay to destroy the EU so that a 1000 socialist flowers can bloom for the workers of England, my advice is bugger off!

    You should not be trying to improve the living conditions of the English by hurting the Irish. After all, the people of the Republic of Ireland did not vote for Thatcher, John Major, Tony Blair, David Cameron or Theresa May. Or Brexit!!

    So why does the UK expect that the Republic will buckle, and basically exit the EU themselves? This is particularly what Boris, Farange etc. want. They just keep telling Theresa May she is “Not committed enough” (i.e. not bullying Ireland enough) to get this outcome. It is not going to happen because the Republic of Ireland is just not that stupid.

    Perhaps May is hoping that the DUP will get bored, and that NI will become a different customs and immigration zone compared to the rest of the UK – as Hong Kong is to mainland China say.

    But more likely, she just wants to put something in place for a year or two, and then hope something turns up, as Mister Micawber said.

  9. 7.30 report should decide if it’s a serious program or an outlet for crime melodrama. Total rubbish & no doubt defamatry .. about time it was sold to Channel 9

  10. Sceptic

    Yes – “this woman doesn’t remember what she told the police X years ago, this proves she was lying X years ago, therefore the person is guilty…” – seemed more than a bit of a stretch.

  11. frednk says Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:25 pm

    I will make up my mind when it is over; but right now he is either brilliant as he will have the Tories on the rug when a second referendum is called, or as big an idiot as the right wing Tories.
    I would not be willing to put a bet on it.

    I would. I think there’s a reason most of his colleagues would prefer a different leader.

    I find it ironic that the Conservatives are led by a remainer and Labor by a leaver.

  12. BB

    We will just have to wait for William to clarify if he was referring to the “little squeak of delight” evidence as being stupid, or to the suggestion that Fran Kelly is biased to the right as being stupid, or to the claim that any ABC reporter may be biased to the right as being stupid.

    Since he specifically mentioned the “little squeak of delight” in the very small excerpt he quoted atop his 3.43pm post, I took it that he was describing that variety of evidence as stupid.

    You seem to have taken a wider interpretation.

    Clarification William?

  13. On other things I do not understand, Bernard Keene, for whom I have always had the most enormous amount of respect, seems to agree with the Herald Sun that the Andrews’ government in Victoria is not concerned enough with Laura Norder, and that if magistrates would only deny people bail over parking fines, Victoria would not have terrorist incidents.

    I had thought that Crikey itself had debunked the idea that Victoria had a law and order problem, or problems with African gangs, with crime in all categories decreasing over the last few years – maybe I misremember.

    But Bernard Keene seeks to differ:

    Why was the Bourke Street killer at large? Andrews and Pakula have questions to answer

    The circumstances in which Bourke Street murderer Hassan Khalif Shire Ali was at liberty despite repeatedly failing to show up to court, and despite his passport having been cancelled, should be a matter of gravest concern. He killed one person, and only luck prevented him from killing more. It is not the first time recently that it has only been luck, not effective intelligence and policing, that has prevented terrorists from claiming more lives.

    Unfortunately, the process for determining why Shire Ali was on the loose and who is responsible consists of a partisan political argument between two of Australia’s least inspiring politicians, Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy, near the end of an election campaign.

    Guy is absolutely right to raise concerns about why Shire Ali was on bail, and the pathetic reaction of Andrews — that to do so is an affront to police — shows he knows it…..

    ….for years there have been legitimate concerns both about Labor’s commitment to keeping Victorians safe from crime and the willingness of Victorian courts to play their role in achieving that. The insouciance with which Shire Ali was able to not bother showing up to court with precisely zero response from the Victorian criminal justice system is remarkable, given ASIO had cancelled his passport.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/11/19/bourke-street-hasan-khalif-shire-ali/?ins=dXlVNzJVRFJiZWtsNWx6aWgrLzlYZz09 (Paywalled)

  14. Boerwar says:

    The serious question is whether Frydenberg has a conflict of interests… not necessarily financial interests but cultural interests.Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    Very good point. Is it possible that Frydenburg has an intellect complex enough to be doing a bit of each? I doubt it so you are probably right.

  15. Boerwar says:

    The serious question is whether Frydenberg has a conflict of interests… not necessarily financial interests but cultural interests.Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:48 pm

    Very good point. Is it possible that Frydenburg has an intellect complex enough to be doing a bit of each? I doubt it so you are probably right.

  16. bc its not about espousing the correct point of view.

    Good journalism is about finding the truth and communicating it clearly.
    What’s wrong with most ABC journalists, most of the time is that they are professionally lazy or worse too scared to do their job professionally. There’s almost no in depth analysis of policy.

    Worse, there’s “analysis” that is plain wrong, like Chris Uhlman’s reportage on “synchronous power”. I’m an Electrical Engineer bc and having the ABCs chief political reporter constantly spout dangerous nonsense was truly shocking (yes, I am an Electrical Engineer btw).

    Then there’s constant fear an loathing within the organisation. A stacked board, senior executives hired for political reasons. I cannot forget how Newsradio would constantly lead an item with “the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott said today..”. Then a series of sound bites from the Liberals (then in opposition). Then a 3 second grab from a Labor spokesperson supposedly to give balance. This kind of bias by structure and emphasis is still a regular feature of ABC news.

    And yes there is some subtle bias on display by some ABC reporters.

    However, none of this is as important as the fact that more and more the ABC just isn’t doing its job. Finding the truth and reporting it.

    https://newmatilda.com/2016/10/12/media-blackout-abc-bias-and-the-assault-on-renewables/
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/01/14/nick-ross-abc-nbn_n_8985558.html

    There has never been an apology from Chris Uhlamn about his frankly wrong (and dangerously so) reporting on power.

    There has never been an apology of the treatment of Nick Ross.
    Nor has there been a retraction or apology by MediaWatch over its hatchet job on Nick Ross.

    And btw the gag on covering the NBN still applies. Turnbull showed up to Q+A recently. History will remember Turnbull as the guy who wasted $50 billion on a temporary network that had to be scrapped and replaced. But not one question on the NBN was asked on Q+A.

    Btw a nice quote..

    “On one occasion, four months before the election, with regards to this article which raised huge questions about the viability of the copper network I was told that “there was nothing wrong with the article per se” but that ‘The NBN was dead and so there’s no point in causing a fuss.’ I published it when I saw Emma Alberici had published hers right after the election. But it got buried and I only got social media traffic.”

    He also claimed the ABC’s 2013 election guide included information on the NBN planted by Turnbull’s staff.

  17. On checking my RWNJ newsfeed they are flummoxed somewhat, as 2 of their bête noirs, Josh FrydeBrain and Pyneocchio have been going the handbags at 20 paces today.

    FrydO called PyneO ‘a legend in his own lunchbox’ on 2GB, in apparent reference to PyneO freelancing on FrydO’s own freelancing on the Jerusalem Embassy move – PyneO suggesting that some token office in East Jerusalem to recognise putative Palestinian sovereignty.

    PISS OFF or wtte thundered FrydO! We will determine Australia’s national interest, and the circumstances under which it is enunciated! Or wtte.

    So on reflection, the RWNJ have backed FrydO by rounding on PyneO with the usual slurs of character etc. Their theory? Any port in a storm.

  18. Douglas and Milko

    Thanks for the Ireland update. We have Irish in our pasts everywhere, as well as some Irish friends both there and here, so are keenly interested always in Ireland.

    If, as seems likely, the U.K. does leave the EU I would not be surprised if Scotland leaves the Union within a few years, and maybe NI to follow if they have a Boris Wall in the Irish Sea.

    In the lead up to the referendum there was some talk about Scotland’s position, but just about no thought seemingly about the Irish border. But when the Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab expresses surprise about how important the Dover-Calais route is, it’s probably safe to assume the proponents of Brexit didn’t really think too much about the important details.

  19. This may be apocryphal, but Fran Kelly was brought up in a DLP family, and handed out HTVs for them as a kid. This was knocked out of her at uni, followed by her rock chick days, and subsequent gay relationship bringing up 5 kids.

    With that out of the way, I listen to RN most mornings whilst driving, and find her an excellent broadcaster – striving a bit much at times to be balanced, in an ABC way.

  20. From D and M’s Bernard Keane extract:

    “The circumstances in which Bourke Street murderer Hassan Khalif Shire Ali was at liberty despite repeatedly failing to show up to court, and despite his passport having been cancelled, should be a matter of gravest concern.”

    ____________________________________

    I find this commentary quite bizarre. I have not read the full article, but I can see only two circumstances where the Victorian authorities were at fault for Ali being released on bail.

    Either the Victorian government was given clear advice by the Commonwealth authorities as to the fact that Ali had had his passport cancelled and that he therefore remained a public danger or the alleged offending for which he was on bail was somehow terrorist related.

    Otherwise, the implication is that anyone who does not show up to court for traffic offences, even repeatedly, is a potential terrorist.

    Now there might be a general issue about the circumstances in which bail is granted. There have been a number of high profile cases in Victoria where a serious offender (rape and murder) was loose on the streets having been bailed or paroled. But this is different from the fact that one of them then decided to commit the political crime of terrorism, which is quite atypical of repeat offenders (who still to the usual criminal pursuits of robbery, assault etc). Unless, of course, Mr Keane is suggesting that Muslims should have tougher hurdles to get bail because they might turn terrorist…..

    The politicisation of this stinks to high hell. It doesn’t help when journalists jump in without proper consideration.

  21. Rocket Rocket @ #536 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 8:32 pm

    Douglas and Milko

    Thanks for the Ireland update. We have Irish in our pasts everywhere, as well as some Irish friends both there and here, so are keenly interested always in Ireland.

    If as seem so likely, the U.K. does leave Brexit I would not be surprised if Scotland leaves the Union within a few years, and maybe NI to follow if they have a Boris Wall in the Irish Sea.

    In the lead up to the referendum there was some talk about Scotland’s position, but just about no thought seemingly about the Irish border. But when the Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab expresses surprise about how important the Dover-Calais route is, it’s probably safe to assume the proponents of Brexit didn’t really think too much about the important details.

    There’s a lot of hand wavering going on. But, the Brits survived a long time without being integrated to Europe.

    History says the Brits will plow on regardless of confected rules to stop them.

  22. GG there will be no empire 2, before empire 1 Britain was a very poor country invaded by anyone that took a liking to it. Socialist paradises tend to be very poor; if that is Corbyn’s dream I’m not so sure the poms will accept it for long.

  23. sprocket_

    If the subject is The Royal Family, especially baby ones, then best give Fran a miss , tends to go all ‘Women’s Weekly” 🙂

  24. William, your description of Kelly’s circumstances – both personally and in the workplace -could have covered any number of ABC journalists in similar circumstances.

  25. GG,

    There’s a lot of hand wavering going on. But, the Brits survived a long time without being integrated to Europe.

    History says the Brits will plow on regardless of confected rules to stop them.

    Totally happy to see the Brits go their own way, but can they just leave the Republic of Ireland alone. If at the end of the day the Brits insist on reinstating the hard border between NI and the republic, I guess the Republic is probably up to it, because there is no other way Brexit is going to happen.

    Let’s just hope the bombs do not start again.

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