Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from the latest Ipsos poll, although it adds to a picture of deteriorating personal approval for Scott Morrison.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is better for the Coalition than the last, recording Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48 on previous election preferences and 53-47 on respondent-allocated preferences, compared with 55-45 for both last time. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor down one to 34% and the Greens down two to 13%.

Despite the Coalition’s improvement on voting intention, Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 48% and up three on disapproval to 36%, while Bill Shorten is respectively down one to 40% and two to 47%. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is 47-35, little changed on the 48-35 result last time.

The poll also finds 46% support a reduction in immigration from Muslim countries, compared with 14% for increased and 35% for left unchanged; and that 47% believe the government’s first objective in energy policy should be to reduce prices, compared with 39% for reducing carbon emissions. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

672 comments on “Ipsos: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. William @3.43pm

    I agree. Some here mysteriously “detect a squeak” in Fran Kelly’s voice. But more strangely many others here are constantly detecting squeaks in Katherine Murphy’s typing.

  2. BB,Yes it is an answer.
    If I don’t like the bullshit being presented to me I turn it off or stop listening or reading it.
    If the media or more specifically the ABC, is as biased to the coalition as people here believe ……….”The effect these biased reporters may have on the unwitting and the gullible is why they do it, not to try to fool more attentive sets of eyes and ears.”…………..if all the gullible and unwitting people have been taken in then their standing in the polls would be better than what it is.
    They are failing.
    As to Simpkins……..Abbott got knifed and the coalition was on the way to a massive defeat if he stayed leader…..nice job. Can we get him to work for Morrison?

  3. Mavis Smith @ #423 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 12:59 pm

    Although accidents do happen on the hustings, when you have Guy “banging” on so much about law and order, boot camps for young transgressors, African crime gangs, he should’ve made sure that the staged gig he attended was free of any controversy. How this pans out in the electorate is yet to be seen, but it’s quite sloppy of him, his minders to be mixing it a someone convicted of a drug offence. In any event, I’m predicting a comfortable win for Andrews on Saturday.

    Why?

    Surely it just like another lobster!

    People like to associate with those they feel comfortable with. 🙂

  4. The DUP leader Arlene Foster is a member of the Orange Order.

    Among other things the DUP has tried to save NI from sodomy, it opposes same sex marriage (still forbidden in NI); it has MPs who believe in creationism, the earth is 4,000 years old, global warming is a hoax, its the only party in NI that campaigned to leave the EU.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-dup-deal-latest-news-northern-ireland-unionists-hung-parliament-minority-abortion-gay-rights-a7808151.html

  5. In my view if you detect bias you should listen; it is not a sin to change your view but there is no hope of that happening if you don’t listen to alternate arguments.

  6. BB

    With utmost respect to your godly perspicacity widely acknowledged here, my reading of William’s post was that he was criticising the phenomenon of “detecting a squeak” in Ms Kelly’s voice, not to whether there are or are not biased ABC reporters.

    And yes, many here sussed out Simkin, but I doubt that their evidence was as flimsy as detecting voice squeaks.

  7. China gave the Australian wine industry a right royal rogering, IMO partly to demonstrate that it COULD.

    The current Defence and Foreign Affairs White Papers, and Morrison’s public commentary, are based on the premise that we can be military allies with the US and trade allies with China.

    Straight after the APEC stand off and the Manus Island Defence Base announcement, China announces an investigation of ‘dumping’ of Australian barley into the China market.

    There are a couple of things to consider here. The first is that China routinely uses sudden and drastic trade barriers to make its political points.

    The second is that China fine tunes these to hurt. US soybean imports to China have plummeted since Trump started the tariff wars. This hits the GOP constituency where it hurts.

    To alter the behaviour of the Coalition, therefore, even a hint that barley exports to China might be at question will have a disproportionate impact.

  8. … if all the gullible and unwitting people have been taken in then their standing in the polls would be better than what it is.

    That’s an overstatement.

    “All” the viewers don’t have to be taken in. Elections here are commonly decided by only a few percentage points. Just enough have to be taken in.

    Secondly, I’m not sure whether you’re arguing that Simkin was NOT biased, or WAS biased, but it didn’t matter anyway.

    If you are arguing that he was NOT biased: then I suggest you are wrong, judged by Simkin’s employment choices.

    In fact he left the job at the ABC directly for the Abbott job. He went from officially unbiased about Abbott, to – next day – about as biased as you could be: literally in charge of Abbott propaganda. To say that he just woke up one morning and suddenly realized he liked Abbott is preposterous.

    If you are arguing that it doesn’t matter whether he was biased, because people who didn’t appreciate his bias could just switch off, that’s equally preposterous.

    Bias is pretty useless if it’s detected. The aim is to pretend to be balanced. Now, Simkin didn’t fool me (another Bludger and I literally put it to him personally one day, at a political function), but he may have fooled many others. Sure, it doesn’t always result in a Coalition government, but that doesn’t excuse bias, except where that bias is declared up front. In Simkin’s case his whole responsibility as an ABC Chief Political Correspondent was in denial of his explicit responsibility to be unbiased, and his assurances to the contrary..

  9. Hmmm… not only has the APEC conference raised issues of international import, the taxonomic status of the Manus Masked Owl has come into question.

  10. Swamprat
    – you forgot abortion which is still virtually banned in NI

    Sometime ago, when the border was last hard, contraception was banned in the Republic but not the North. Sinful hussys from the north had a habit of crossing the border so that they would be asked by the Republic Customs Officials to surrender any contraceptives. They would then say “it’s in my uterus, do you want to take it out”

  11. Primrose is a tad verbose.

    I suppose the ability to create 500 words meaning not very much is a basic talent of a columnist. 😉

  12. lizzie
    Her columns are generally more concise than her responses on, for example, the Drum.
    She would benefit from slowing down and saying only about a quarter of the words she normally uses.

  13. Tired of hearing that “BB has a cabal of followers” (or similar) bullshit Psyclaw. Bemused used to rabbit on about it, and it was as much crap then as it is now. It is not and never has been true.

    But to answer your point…

    I thought William’s point was that someone who had given up public advocacy of causes, had been through so much in her job at the ABC as Fran Kelly had been, and had seen her beloved ABC suffer so much bastardization at the hands of the Coalition, could not possibly be biased towards the Coalition.

    I don’t think anyone thought it was the “squeak” comment, per se.

    But now that I think of it, someone who is as morally battered, bullied and threatened as Kelly allegedly has been, might be just the sort of person who would break under the pressure, and play nice just to relieve that pressure.

    We have already seen that the Chairman and Managing director were freely discussing the sacking of two other senior political and economics reporters – Emma Alberici and Andrew Probyn – because the ABC’s political masters were unhappy with their work. A sensible reporter might not want that to happen in their own case.

  14. Boerwar

    I have found that a number of eloquent journos (in written form) are rather disappointing in the flesh. (I can understand that. So am I!)

  15. lizzie
    I am sure that you would not disappoint in the flesh!
    Given the exigencies of many platforms, perfectly good writers are being forced into many media for which they are not suited.

  16. Boerwar @ #387 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 2:56 pm

    I don’t have the link but I did see a reference to polling of the English. The majority of them are ready to shed NI and Scotland in order to Brexit.

    That is something which also occurred to me. I wonder if one part of Britain (the Brexit part) could expel the ‘remain’ parts. Or would, say, Wales and England have to secede and form a new kingdom? (Just thinking aloud.) 🙂

  17. LR
    I don’t have the answers to those conundra!
    Around about a hundred years ago the aristocracy and the military were vaguely preparing a coup against the British Government over Home Rule. This included such bizarre items as getting english stately homes ready to be hospitals.

  18. Now Morrison is accusing Shorten of gross disrespect towards PNG because he commented that the APEC conference has a disappointing result. He should include the entirety of the Australian news media in that accusation, as they have ALL been saying that, ALL day.

    Perhaps he should also include Josh Frydenberg in the ranks of the “grossly disrespectful” as well, after his comments regarding the PM of Malaysia?

    And himself, too, as he was justifying the lack of communique only half an hour ago on the radio news.

    What a clot Morrison is.

  19. I cannot tell whether Teresa May is not very bright, or whether she is just hoping something will turn up. In the article from the UK Guardian below she says “I have always had a very clear sense of the outcomes I wanted to deliver for people in these negotiations. Control over our borders, by bringing an end to free movement, once and for all.”

    This is just not compatible with an open border betweenNorthern Ireland and the Republic, and she has to know this.

    From the Guardian UK:

    Theresa May will move to seize back the initiative from mutinous Tory MPs on Monday by promoting her Brexit deal with a defiant speech to business leaders, even as critics in Westminster scramble to trigger a no-confidence vote in her leadership.

    As she enters perhaps the most perilous week of her premiership, May will insist at the CBI annual conference in London that her deal delivers on the central demand of voters in the 2016 referendum, by allowing the UK to control immigration.

    “Getting back full control of our borders is an issue of great importance to the British people,” she will say, adding that EU citizens will no longer be able to “jump the queue ahead of engineers from Sydney or software developers from Delhi”.
    ……………

    The prime minister will tell her audience in Greenwich: “I have always had a very clear sense of the outcomes I wanted to deliver for people in these negotiations. Control over our borders, by bringing an end to free movement, once and for all. …….

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/18/theresa-may-tory-rebels-brexit-deal-uk-immigration?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlVS19XZWVrZGF5cy0xODExMTk%3D&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&CMP=GTUK_email

  20. Frydenberg always struck me as one the more pragmatic members of this government. But he is going in hard on the Israeli embassy. I know he is jewish and probably feels passionately about it but surely he can see it is not a winning hand.

  21. Boerwar @ #414 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 3:38 pm

    swamprat
    Hmmm… but is British defence expenditure in Scotland counted as part of Scotland’s GDP? There is a lot of it.

    (Still catching up.) The guy who invented GDP (I’ll have to look him up) wanted military expenditure excluded, I suspect because it distorts the measure of productive capacity. An independent Scotland within the EU may have very different military objectives and policies to a Scotland within the UK.


  22. Rex Douglas says:

    Another day… another Blairite using Brexit to undermine the Labour rank and files champion.

    I will make up my mind when it is over; but right now he is either brilliant as he will have the Tories on the rug when a second referendum is called, or as big an idiot as the right wing Tories.
    I would not be willing to put a bet on it.

  23. swamprat says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 5:47 pm
    The DUP leader Arlene Foster is a member of the Orange Order.

    Among other things the DUP has tried to save NI from sodomy, it opposes same sex marriage (still forbidden in NI); it has MPs who believe in creationism, the earth is 4,000 years old, global warming is a hoax, its the only party in NI that campaigned to leave the EU.

    They would get on well with the Qld LNP.

  24. All I’m going to say is that I eagerly await the day when a male commentator is accused of “squeaking” in a manner deemed objectionable.

  25. B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:19 pm
    Frydenberg always struck me as one the more pragmatic members of this government. But he is going in hard on the Israeli embassy. I know he is jewish and probably feels passionately about it but surely he can see it is not a winning hand.

    If the Liberals were mad enough to consider another leadership change who is the least undesirable candidate? Maybe Frydenberg is doing a little stirring.

  26. Vibey,

    I didn’t hear the Fran Kelly program. I don’t listen to RN anymore.

    My point was that it was a bit rich to argue that it was “stupid” to claim she couldn’t possibly be biased (and hence have squeaked in excitement at the announcement of a poll improvement for the Coalition).

    This is because:

    * biased ABC political reporters are not a new thing, and
    * the travails she and her employer had suffered under the Coalition, and the recent news of discussions between her MD and Chairman about sacking journalists for upsetting the Coalition might have had the clearly desired effect and made her more likely to be biased to please her bosses.

  27. Itsthevibe @ 6.25 above:

    It think the male of the species does not squeak. The term would more likely be “squawk” as in the case of a certain “Parrot” known to perform on a certain radio station.

  28. Fulvio Sammut says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 3:08 pm
    Any early sniffings of Essential yet?

    Am hoping for another 52:48. Have enjoyed PB today, the reaction on here to an underwhelming poll always provides amusement.

  29. ‘Douglas and Milko says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:13 pm

    I cannot tell whether Teresa May is not very bright, or whether she is just hoping something will turn up. In the article from the UK Guardian below she says “I have always had a very clear sense of the outcomes I wanted to deliver for people in these negotiations. Control over our borders, by bringing an end to free movement, once and for all.”

    This is just not compatible with an open border betweenNorthern Ireland and the Republic, and she has to know this. ‘

    Yep.

  30. Lets be honest; the answer is beginning to look as if it might be “Jeremy Corbyn” is an idiot; but then again he may be playing the long game. A very serious game of chicken.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/19/brexit-class-labour-conservative-leave-peoples-vote

    The quote that really got to me from that piece was While some of us have been spitting feathers about the deceptions perpetrated by rightwing leavers, Jeremy Corbyn has seemed barely interested. Is there some kind of awful equivalence between the rightwing Brexiteers, who see national crisis as the ideal seedbed for a free-market utopia, and leftwingers who think socialism is similarly best assisted by disaster?

    I often think this in frustration when trying to understand the far left enthusiasm for Brexit. It is so like the far left in Germany in the 1930s gleefully destroying the centre.

    Of course, the far left were half correct. After the horrors and almost total destruction of Nazism, a socialist state did emerge from the ashes in East Germany, existing from 1949 – 1990, known as the German Democratic Republic (GDR), or more properly die Deutsche Demokratische Republik (DDR).

    But was it worth it?

  31. ‘Peter Stanton says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:34 pm

    B.S. Fairman says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:19 pm
    Frydenberg always struck me as one the more pragmatic members of this government. But he is going in hard on the Israeli embassy. I know he is jewish and probably feels passionately about it but surely he can see it is not a winning hand.,,,’

    The serious question is whether Frydenberg has a conflict of interests… not necessarily financial interests but cultural interests.

    Perhaps, instead of going out of his way to insult Malaysia’s Prime Minister, Frydenberg should recuse himself from the debate altogether.

  32. frednk @ #478 Monday, November 19th, 2018 – 6:25 pm


    Rex Douglas says:

    Another day… another Blairite using Brexit to undermine the Labour rank and files champion.

    I will make up my mind when it is over; but right now he is either brilliant as he will have the Tories on the rub when a second referendum is called, or as big an idiot as the right wing Tories.
    I would not be willing to put a bet on it.

    There will likely be another referendum, but it will be a question of what type of Brexit, not Brexit or Remain.

  33. Interesting discussion on Ireland today. I am still of the opinion that only Ireland (both bits) can make Brexit work. Is it fair to say that May is negotiating at the wrong table?

  34. LR

    ‘An independent Scotland within the EU may have very different military objectives and policies to a Scotland within the UK.’

    It would indeed. The question is the wherewithall.

  35. According to MMT, Northern Ireland should now secede from the rest of the the world, print a shitload of money and pay unemployed people to look for shamrocks or whatever takes their UJG fancies.


  36. There will likely be another referendum, but it will be a question of what type of Brexit, not Brexit or Remain.

    We will see. You mate Putin may still not get his way.

  37. ‘Late Riser says:
    Monday, November 19, 2018 at 6:49 pm
    Interesting discussion on Ireland today. I am still of the opinion that only Ireland (both bits) can make Brexit work. Is it fair to say that May is negotiating at the wrong table?’
    The Barnier team’s first task in the negotiations was to set up a negotiating frame, enunciate some broad principles, identify some possible red lines. It developed this in full consultation with the 27 countries, including the Republic of Ireland.
    These consultations have been ongoing with occasional high level meetings of the Parties to tick things off.
    In terms of intra EU processes, this sort of stuff is Brussels bread and butter. Barnier et al have shown superb negotiating skils – including the ability to herd 27 national cats.
    I came across this sort of process in a past life in some international negotiations with which I was engaged on behalf of Straya’s National Interest.

    So the Republic side of the Irish Question was at the table all along.

    What May did with the DUP, other than fold when faced with the DUP’s BOP following the last general election, is anybody’s guess.

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