Federal election minus six months (probably)

Tales of preselection action from Hughes, Indi, Cowper, Bennelong, Chisholm, Longman and New England.

Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).

• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.

• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.

• David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.

• Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.

• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.

• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.

• David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Federal election minus six months (probably)”

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  3. Millennial @ #250 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 3:58 pm

    Tom the first and best @ #245 Friday, November 16th, 2018 – 2:52 pm

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/16/federal-election-minus-six-months-probably/comment-page-4/#comment-3003668

    1. It is not just Hungary without popcorn. Czechia (A.K.A. the Czech Republic), Slovakia, Slovenia, Luxembourg, Finland and Croatia also lack popcorn as do Romania, Bulgaria, Malta and Greece but there are map edge issue with those.

    2. The map only shows the external borders of the EU (minus those of Andorra, Vatican City, San Marino and Monaco, which are very small and hard to fit on the map), although it is out of date because Croatia has joined the EU, so the map does not show Yugoslavia (which included Slovenia (on the EU side of the border in the map) and Croatia (which is on the non-EU side of the border in the map but should be EU side) but not Albania (also on the non-EU side of the border)). It does have an outline of the cost line of Europe, even where it in not an EU border (presumably for geographic reference) and part of the Belarus-Russia border (indicating it was derived from a map with more borders).

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMto0ecNIa4

    A much better EU MAP

  4. “Pretending that you can’t get from A to B (right now! bugger the rain! bugger the traffic!) when you are the POTUS is preposterous.”

    So…if nuclear war comes down, the Donald better hope its not raining or he misses out on evacuation?? 🙂

  7. Mavis

    Because both by statute and the common law, sentencing discounts are largely influenced by the timing of the plea of guilty.

  10. BK
    One could insert underwriting of coal fired power in the Fracting part of podcast above.

    Anything that requires cheap money to survive is a disaster waiting to happen.

  11. Ex-FBI counter-intel chief: Newly revealed Assange charges may be part of Mueller’s plan to target Trump

    MSNBC “11th Hour” anchor Brian Williams broke in with breaking news on Thursday after the Department of Justice inadvertently revealed the existence of sealed charges against Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

    Williams was fortunate to have as a guest Frank Figliuzzi, the former Assistant Director for Counterintelligence at the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    “So, Frank, what’s the significance of this development to you?” Williams asked.

    “Well, this has deep meaning also for me personally, because I was in Washington at headquarters when the entire intelligence community was wrestling with what to do with Julian Assange and Wikileaks,” he noted. “And that the great debate about whether we should even treat him as a foreign power — they were doing that much damage to us.”

    “Look, I said before on your show, Brian, I think the strategy for Mueller is to tell us the story of a corrupt president through the indictments of others,” he noted.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/ex-fbi-counter-intel-chief-newly-revealed-assange-charges-may-part-muellers-plan-target-trump/

  12. “Well, this has deep meaning also for me personally, because I was in Washington at headquarters when the entire intelligence community was wrestling with what to do with Julian Assange and Wikileaks,” he noted. “And that the great debate about whether we should even treat him as a foreign power — they were doing that much damage to us.”

    I wouldn’t be giving the man ideas. His ego is already as big as a country as it is!

  15. Sceptic

    Re fracking. A decade back I was involved in the oil+gas industry. All the in house mags from the likes of Conoco and Bechtel mentioned the expense and the then high oil price making it economically viable. Given the drop in the price of oil it is a wonder as to what keeps it afloat, especially as oil flow drops off relatively quickly in the wells. Could be “fun” when reality intrudes.

  16. Victoria says: Friday, November 16, 2018 at 4:32 pm

    PhoenixRed

    hmmm. does the DOJ do anything inadvertently?

    ****************************************************************

    It may well be one of those ‘strategic’ leaks to put the frightners on Trump and get him to panic just that bit more than seems to be happening to his behaviours of late ……

    Mueller has asked for another 10 days delay in the Manafort case – and that’s set the rabbits running with Thanksgiving coming up in that time frame ……

    TeaPain has some thoughts : Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    How Tea reads tonight’s Mueller news.

    1) Manafort sentencin’ extended 10 days not to tip off targets
    2) Indictments issued tomorrow
    3) Arrests and arraignments next week
    4) Manafort sentence hearin’ after Thanksgiving with updates from next week’s activity.

    Fingers crossed we will wake up tomorrow to some promising news 🙂

  17. phoenixRED

    …………I think the strategy for Mueller is to tell us the story of a corrupt president through the indictments of others,” he noted.

    Sounds almost an admission they have nothing on Trump .

  19. shellbell:

    [Mavis:

    Because both by statute and the common law, sentencing discounts are largely influenced by the timing of the plea of guilty.]

    That goes without saying, shellbell.

    I’ve put together what I consider to be the major sentencing considerations.

    In criminal law, if the evidence is against a defendant/accused, there are a number of ways to improve his/her sentencing prospects.

    Pleading early, thereby negativing the need for the police/DDP to put together a full brief of evidence. In Queensland, for instance, and depending on the crime, a mini-brief does the job. An early plea evidences remorse, co-operation with investigating authorities, which in turn facilitates the administration of justice. References. Written apologies to the victim and reparation where appropriate, as for instance in the case of fraud. Depending on the defendant’s/accused criminal history, and taking into account if there are aggravating factors, such as committing the offence while on bail, probation, parole, prior conviction for a similar offence, it’s possible to reduce the actual time served by up to a third. Thus if a prisoner is sentenced to, say, a head sentence of three years, he/she can expect to serve one year.

    In the case of McLachlan. No charges have been pressed. But if there were, by virtue of him refusing to be interviewed, he wouldn’t be allowed a sentence discount for co-operation. He could, however, change his mind, enter an early plea, in consequence of which, he could rely on remorse. But this is not a course he would seem to be happy with. In his defamation action, he’s denying the sexual assault allegations against him, leading to a reasonable conclusion that he would be equally reticent to plead guilty in a criminal proceeding.

    This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of the sentencing process; it’s more nuanced than that: issues such as general and personal deterrence, repudiation of the crime committed, rehabilitation, etc. But it does include the major elements that a judge/magistrate would take into account at sentencing.

  21. poroti says: Friday, November 16, 2018 at 4:47 pm

    phoenixRED

    …………I think the strategy for Mueller is to tell us the story of a corrupt president through the indictments of others,” he noted.

    Sounds almost an admission they have nothing on Trump .

    ************************************************************

    From whatever I have read on Robert Mueller and his classic take-down of seemingly untouchable mobsters and financial crooks – he takes a slow and deliberate progress to tie up ALL the underlings one after another to build a case against the next higher up rung of the ladder person – one after another —– climbing the steps ….. to build an irontight unbreakable case against his main target …… and I think this is how he is working to get Trump …. Time will tell if that is his strategy and if he succeeds …..

  22. Under Guy’s proposed laws, Elliott, the Liberal Party icon, should have been jailed not bailed until a Court appearance date.

    As the Lackie from “The Age” includes “It will not worry Guy that (the murderer from last Friday) was bailed on minor traffic charges and where Police would not oppose bail”

    So, if Guy’s tough new laws would have seen Shrill in jail instead of on bail pending a date in Court, what about Elliott?

    Elliott was obviously bailed ahead of his date in Court.

  23. Here is a feelgood story for the day, especially for us Science nerds:

    Humanity is on the verge of a weighty achievement. On Friday, representatives of more than 60 nations will convene in Versailles, France, to approve a new definition for the kilogram…

    Thanks to Albert Einstein’s revelation that energy and mass are related, determining exactly how much energy is in that unit can let scientists define mass in terms of Planck’s constant — a value that should hold up across space and time — rather than relying on an inconstant metal cylinder. (Mass determines something’s weight, and for most purposes mass and weight are interchangeable.)

    The redefinition is the result of a decades-long, worldwide quest to measure Planck’s constant precisely enough that the number would stand up to scientific scrutiny.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/a-massive-change-nations-will-vote-to-redefine-the-kilogram/2018/11/15/b5704b0a-e6c7-11e8-b8dc-66cca409c180_story.html?utm_term=.bc60983641c4

    A tous les temps, a tous les peuples. 🙂

  24. Apologies to Henry and others. Julie Bishop is a most competent pollie, especially in the area of foreign relations.

    Her supervision of huge cuts in foreign aid AND her talking the cuts up, her anticipated difficulties in working with Jacinta Arden which she spruiked before the NZ election, her loudmouth claim that Australia’s secret services utilise false passports are all good examples of her relevant competencies.

    And carting her non-partner partner all around the world shows that she has the ideal sense of ethics to be foreign minister.

  28. Victoria says: Friday, November 16, 2018 at 5:28 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I agree with you on the Mueller strategy.
    Trump played his Matt Whittaker card. I dare say it will ultimately fail

    *****************************************************************

    It has been said that Whittaker is already on Muellers ‘persons of interest’ list for matters in his past history ….there have been suggestions that *treason* – by association to Trump, from what he may have seen – may be enough to want him to get a recusal from the role …..

  30. The toll for the California wildfire could top 600 …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-16/more-than-600-people-missing-after-deadly-california-wildfires/10505140

    Trump says this is because of “poor forest management”. Let’s give him the benefit of the doubt, because there is still some argument over whether such incidents can be directly attributed to global warming just yet.

    But just imagine what the toll of such a fire will be when global warming – a so-called “threat multiplier” according to the US Department of Defence (of which Trump is Commander in Chief) – really starts to bite.

    Not 600, but multiples of 600.

    Perhaps many multiples.

    Every. Year. 🙁

  31. Didn’t they plant millions of eucalyptus trees across the west of the USA. Must’ve been before we found out that eucalyptus killed off every other tree species on the Australian continent:

    Because these trees do not just resist fire, they actively encourage it. ‘They withstand fire, they need fire; to some extent, they create fire,’ Bowman says. ‘The leaves, the bark, don’t decompose. … The bark and leaves of eucalypts seem almost made to promote fire.

  32. nath

    It may not have mattered what they planted. It is looking increasingly likely the SW is moving into one of their periodical multi decade megadroughts. Everything will be crispy dry and ready to burn

  33. poroti
    says:
    Friday, November 16, 2018 at 6:08 pm
    nath
    It may not have mattered what they planted. It is looking increasingly likely the SW is moving into one of their periodical multi decade megadroughts. Everything will be crispy dry and ready to burn
    ___________________________
    Yes you’d think weather would be the primary cause, but leaves and bark filled with oil wont help!

  34. Bishop opposed the foreign aid cuts.

    ‘”This confirms – in the most horrible of circumstances – that Bail is broken in Victoria,” Mr Guy said via Twitter on Friday.’
    Talk about hyperbowl! The guy was on bail for traffic offences; it’s not like Bayley or Monis.

  35. Everyone is concentrating on the embassy question but no one has talked about the implications of the other announcement made by Morrison at the same time. We have also supported the US move to impose sanctions on Iran.

    How does that further our interests? What consideration was given to possible negative outcomes for Australia? This is just another example of the incompetence of this government and this PM.

  37. Just listened to Guy on the radio saying he’s going to take control of crime in Victoria. Couldn’t help thinking of a Mafia boss…

  41. Jack the Insider has a look at some of the fights breaking out in the Greens,NSW and Victoria.

    If you listen closely you can hear it. The sound of muffled shrieks and angry recriminations. The dull thud of the slipper being sunk.

    The NSW Greens is a misnomer. There isn’t a skerrick of environmental concern across the party……………In other words, those who have nodded fervently in agreement while reading Rousseau, Mao and Trotsky to those who shun books as the hallmarks of white privilege and would consign the lot to the flame if they could figure out a way to make the vast bonfire carbon neutral.
    https://outline.com/mE8jfY

  46. Heard an interview with Victoria’s shadow Attorney General a couple of times on ABC News Radio while driving back from the Central Coast. He must be on high rotation. He seems to have been to the Morrison school of Shouting while Circular Breathing. “Tough on crime”. The Bourke Street attacker had minor traffic matters and didn’t show up in course. And he would throwing traffic offenders in jail stop these attacks. And why didn’t the interviewer ask that.

    “Liberals” exploiting the attack for political gain. What a surprise (not).

  48. Thanks, poroti, for the latest Jack the Insider read. I loved it! Especially this bit:

    The Greens are a hopeless joke unleashed on Australia’s bloated middle class…

    Now, they’ve become a tawdry shadow of the worst elements of the major parties, the ugliest possible expression for the terribleness of modern politics, a dangerous cocktail of sanctimony and cant.

    Does that remind you of anyone here? 🙂

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