Federal election minus six months (probably)

Tales of preselection action from Hughes, Indi, Cowper, Bennelong, Chisholm, Longman and New England.

Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).

Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.

• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.

David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.

Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.

• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.

• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.

David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Federal election minus six months (probably)”

  1. poroti
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:05 pm
    nath says:
    Fixed it for you
    .
    I believe that the negative gearing policy is just aimed at people’s prejudices against those that take large amounts of public money so as to own multiple houses for private gain.
    _________________________________
    I’m not saying that negative gearing is wonderful. But just removing it from established properties won’t do anything much. You can still negative gear new houses and stocks, or any other damned thing you like.

  2. ‘poroti says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 5:46 pm

    Boerwar

    For me the EU is just a continuation of the fight by other means of the usual battling European empires, Germany,England and France. As an antipodean I feel very Meh about what happens. With my most recent UK born direct ancestor being born in 1861 you can see why I do nae feel much concern for the UK ‘

    I am the opposite, with a passion. My parents were born in two small villages in North Holland. I have lived in both villages. I lived for a year in Paris. I have travelled extensively through much of Europe. I have studied european history pretty well all my life. I can get by in around five european languages.

    When I first lived in Holland its economy was still more or less a total wreck as a result of World War 2. Around half my uncles, aunties and cousins – some forty or fifty people – joined the Dutch diaspora.

    I have relations in Ireland, Scotland and England as well as many other places around the world.

    When I lived in Paris I made a habit of visiting churches and cathedrals. The honour rolls on the walls were interminable. France was bled white.

    Europe flattened itself twice in two main wars and a dozen or so minor wars before the EU came into being. It was habitual.

    If the EU achieves nothing else during its existence but prevents or reduces this continental scale bloodletting and destruction, then that is already a magnificent achievement.

    This simply cannot be taken for granted should the EU dissolve. In fact, I would guarantee that wars would once more become the norm.

  3. ‘Steve777 says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:11 pm

    BW @5:35PM. That looks like the right (politic) answer. I hope that’s the one he gave.’

    Hundreds of face-to-face town hall meetings and thousands of interview questions by hostile journos over five years means that Shorten is very, very good at addressing people’s concerns.
    The other reason he is good at it is that Labor is not hiding its policies. WSYWIG sets you free.

  4. We should be talking to the High Speed Rail people on here about the benefits of opening up more land to residential development with relatively quick access to jobs and transport. Land use inefficiency is the biggest problem with housing that we have. But it requires long term planning and too much work for our knuckleheaded politicians.

  5. Trump, has there ever been a bigger dickhead walk the earth?

    “What we saw at Pleasure, what a name right,” Trump told reporters while standing in front of some charred trees in California next to state governor Jerry Brown.

    Unfortunately, again, that is not the name at all.

    Brown, who had been staring at the ground, instantly looked up — a confused look on his face — as the president got the name of the area badly incorrect.

    “What we just saw, we just left Pleasure,” Trump said again, before several others standing alongside him corrected him, loudly saying ‘Paradise’.

    Trump continued, unembarrassed and undeterred

  6. May could not manage to develop a negotiating frame in just one country. She is struggling to get just one parliament to pass the Draft Agreement.

    The Barnier Team developed such a frame to include 27 countries. They were in constant touch with reps from 27 countries. And the Draft Agreement will have to go to 27 different parliaments for endorsement.

    It will take just one of those parliaments to say ‘No!’ and the Draft Agreement sinks. Yep. Any one of 27 democracies in the EU can sink the Agreement! How democratic is that?

    I recall posting that one of the things the EU has become very, very good at is taking into account the needs and wants of all member countries. But this is supposed by the British Right Wing Fanatics and by the British Docrtinaire Far Left, somehow, to be as sign that the EU is not democratic.

    I believe that the EU consensus style and consultation style means that the EU as a whole is much more democratic than any previous european regime.

    The Draft Agreement is a remarkable EU achievement.

    And Barnier and his team have been remarkable negotiators.

  7. Breaking: The APEC meeting in PNG has ended in disarray, with regional leaders unable to reach a consensus on trade and deciding not to issue their usual joint communique

  8. Nath’s link:

    https://risehigh.com.au/how-labors-negative-gearing-policy-will-affect-the-property-market-2

    Contains the statement (inter alia):

    “ This means that as of 1 July 2017 negative gearing would no longer be available for established houses or apartments.”

    I.e. produced prior to last election and not updated, a bit cut-price as a scare campaign…

    Looking further, the date on most of “Rise High”’s pages is 2017.

    And further, they run Investment Seminars… and they’ve got testimonials…

    Hmm…

  9. Jackol @ #1240 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    I have no idea who Jill Stark is, but apparently yet another person who automatically equates advocating lower immigration levels to xenophobia.

    Sad.

    So, you object to one of Jill Stark’s assessments and the perspective it came from? And that makes the others wrong, how? Or her for making them, not to be trusted, why?

    Jill StarkVerified account
    @jillastark
    Author, of Happy Never After & High Sobriety. Journo. Scotralian. Former Sunday Age senior writer. Passionate about LGBTI equality, mental health.

  10. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/16/federal-election-minus-six-months-probably/comment-page-26/#comment-3005036

    Almost completely eliminating negative gearing on newly purchased existing properties (after a certain date) will dramatically improve the ability of prospective owner-occupiers to buy homes by making it harder to for most investors to outbid prospective owner-occupiers by making the playing field more level and also provide more revenue to the Commonwealth Government. The key difference between existing properties and the investments the ALP is not restricting negative gearing to is that the supply of existing housing is fixed and so increasing prices (what negative gearing does) is inflationary for the price of existing houses, rather than an incentive to increase supply.

  11. Both Corbyn and May have stated that Britain can go it alone on the basis of the WTO trading rules.

    What neither appears to have noticed is that the WTO has been terribly weakened by Putin, Xi and Trump.

    The WTO no longer offers small isolated trading countries like the UK (and Australia, for that matter) the protection of the international rule of law.

  12. cat – I’m relatively hostile to quoting random people on twitter or other social media as being informed or authoritative on any matter. The fact that one of her five points is, in my opinion, ill informed and superficial doesn’t help with the other 4 points.

    If the message is “don’t be sucked in by shiny happy party names”, great, maybe one or two actual examples of policies that contradict the party name would suffice, and I would hope that the PB audience was sufficiently well informed on matters political that this should go without saying (or at least without being said by some random tweeter).

  13. C@tmomma @ #1235 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 5:57 pm

    No, but you can’t be the Scrooge McDuck of the flock who want to do something about Global Warming either. You look forward and up, for the sunny uplands, but you make your plans with your head and not your heart.

    It’s precisely the rising temperatures of those ‘sunny uplands’ that worries me.

    Don’t forget your sunscreen – you’re going to need it! 🙂

  14. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:31 pm
    nath,
    You do know there are smarter people than you here, don’t you?
    ________________________________
    I’m sure you think you are one of them.

  15. Good afternoon all,

    I would suggest that countries at APEC are, in fact, awake to the problems associated with the ” isolationist ” tariff raising trade agenda of Trump and his intense dislike and complete dismissal of the WTO.

    Interesting conclusion to the conference seeing Morrison was like a rat up a drain pipe in support of Trumps trade agenda just yesterday.

    Just the view of a complete amateur.

    Cheers to all.

  16. I note the AFR has an attack piece on Stiglitz – and by extension on Wolfensohn who quite possibly is one of the greatest minds Australia has produced

  17. The REISA is saying the same thing:

    “As commentators have said, established housing can drop by as much as 15 per cent … and hungry investors will compete for any and all new homes or housing estates
    “I’m surprised to date that I have not seen any commentary from state and territory governments about their modelling on state finances should federal Labor win and bring in their negative gearing policy. The silence is deafening,” Mr Troughton said.

    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/realestate/news/adelaide-sa/real-estate-institute-of-south-australia-to-attack-labors-proposed-negative-gearing-policy/news-story/4bf9ddbf8fe98433380fff8e576d06c8

  18. Jackol @ #1239 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    I have no idea who Jill Stark is, but apparently yet another person who automatically equates advocating lower immigration levels to xenophobia.

    Sad.

    Indeed. Ignorance such as this is hard to excuse.

    One thing to remember for those who are in favour of increased immigration – you are generally taking people from countries with the lowest per capita C02 emissions, to a country with amongst the highest.

    Every person who migrates to Australia will dramatically increase their C02 emissions – some by as much as 20 times – once they fully integrate into an Australian lifestyle.

    What an achievement 🙁

  19. nath

    Should houses be for housing or investment. All the tears seem to be for people that want to use them as an investment.

    Lets all get out the tiny violins and in our spare time lets support policies that support home ownership.

  20. Cross-posted from the Victorian election thread:

    Ben Raue on the Victorian upper house group voting tickets:

    http://www.tallyroom.com.au/36327

    Of these eighteen parties, it appears that fourteen are participating in some way in a preference arrangement to deny close races to the major parties or the Greens.
    :::
    Nick Casmirri has helpfully done some research today identifying which parties appear to be best-placed to benefit from these preferences in each region:

    East Metro – Rod Barton of the Transport Matters Party
    East Vic – Vern Hughes of the Aussie Battler Party
    North Metro – Multiple strong minors, but Carmel Dagiandis of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
    North Vic – Tim Quilty of the Liberal Democrats
    South East Metro – Ali Khan of the Transport Matters Party
    South Metro – Clifford Hayes of Sustainable Australia
    West Metro – Stuart O’Nell of the Aussie Battler Party
    West Vic – Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party

    Of course, this doesn’t mean these eight people will get elected. They will need to reach a certain threshold where they can start benefiting from preferences, but this can be quite low. Antony Green found that his upper house calculator could elect Transport Matters in East Metro off 0.31%.
    :::
    Labor is preferencing the Greens quite highly, but in every region they are preferencing the candidate listed above ahead of the Greens, which means if they end up in a head-to-head race with the Greens at the end of the count, Labor’s preferences would help elect the little-known micro-party candidate.

  21. Pegasus
    Given the continual attempt to wedge labor, the continual same/same crap do you think labor really cares what happens to the greens?

  22. frednk

    Victorian Labor obviously prefers to enable the election of right-wing party candidates to parliament instead of progressive Greens candidates.

    Anything to wield power for powers sake and to maintain the status quo.

    That’s why there has been bipartisan agreement to not abolish undemocratic group voting tickets before the election, despite talking about it since 2014.

  23. The Marshall Plan and the presence of US troops in Europe have made much bigger contributions to preventing another continental war in Europe than anything the EU has done.

    If anything, the EU is destabilising the region by locking in excessive German current account surpluses that inflict large demand leakages, high unemployment rates, social dislocation, and political instability in the other nations of Europe. And now 18 of those nations cannot use fiscal policy to offset the demand leakages because they adopted the the EU’s deeply flawed concept of a common currency area for nations with diverse economic conditions and no common fiscal authority.

    Dissolving the Eurozone and the EU would be a major contribution to prosperity and peace in Europe.

    The current arrangements lock in harmful German mercantilism and elevated labour wastage in other Eurozone nations.

  24. frednk
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:56 pm
    Pegasus
    Given the continual attempt to wedge labor, the continual same/same crap do you think labor really cares what happens to the greens?
    ________________________________
    I wonder how the ALP would like it if the Greens preferenced the Libs in marginal seats.

  25. poroti

    For me the EU is just a continuation of the fight by other means of the usual battling European empires, Germany,England and France.

    Boerwar

    Europe flattened itself twice in two main wars and a dozen or so minor wars before the EU came into being. It was habitual.

    This reminds me of that wonderful satirical show “Yes Prime Minister” or maybe it was “Yes Minister”. Either way one of the scenes that stayed with me was Sir H patiently and succinctly explaining to Hacker the basis for British foreign policy, namely to keep France and Germany at each other’s throats. Good satire always contains a decent grain of truth. Perhaps, in some unconscious sense the EU feels threatening.

  26. LR

    Some good points there. The traditional British approach to Europe has always been intervention – often armed intervention. From a British national interest point of view this worked well for centuries, IMO. So essentially the Far Right and the Far Left are back to the old British tricks. A weakened, fractious and divided Europe suits the Far Right and the Far Left of Britain just fine.

    During the Brexit negotiation period May and her Far Right cohorts made numerous attempts to cause active divisions inside the EU with a view to strengthening the UK bargaining position. Naturally, this involved very active appeals and lobbying and kowtowing to the Far Right crazies in France, the Netherlands, Poland, Italy and Austria.

    It does not seem to have occurred to the Far Left Ideologues, including our MMT fan Nicholas, that they are in bed with such noble luminaries as Le Pen and Wilders.

  27. Diogenes – everything I’ve heard about Sustainable Australia is that they are, indeed, for cutting immigration; I have not seen any evidence that they have a xenophobic basis. If Stark wishes to make that case, she can do so (and provide a link to her researched evidence); I’m not going to take a throw away tweet as evidence of anything, and nor should anyone else.

  28. Nicholas and others like-minded ideologues might just be interested to know that Steve Bannon is 100% on their side.
    He wants to wreck the EU.

  29. If she thinks the Sustainable Australia party is xenophobic, I wonder if Jill Stark believes the Secular Party supports religious bigotry.

  30. Sky News free to rural Australia.
    Am currently touring around the South West of Western Australia in my Land cruiser troopy camper van. I have taken a break from camping in a cabin . Turn on the TV Sky news and a total climate denial rant about false scientific evidence. Next total promotion of coal as a great and good. Next Tony Abbott, esteemed former PM, full on about the great and good of the Australian Embassy being in Jerusalem.
    Next Tony denying that the liberal party can’t deal with climate change according to Malcolm Turnbulls speech. ‘We will do it in a Canter” backing Scott..
    Dividing the country as in Trumps America . Rural for republics , cities for Democrats.Sheez!

  31. Frydenberg says that house prices will collapse and that rents will soar

    Really?

    I would think that for property investors the combination of falling stock prices and increased returns would attract them

    Particularly with the Cash Rate at 1.5% and the ASX down 10% since 31st August and down far more than that since immediately prior to the GFC

    Negative Gearing

    Borrowing to an amount whereby the combination of interest on that debt, the meeting of Land Tax, Council Rates, Insurance, utility supply costs (as distinct from usage) and the cost of repairs and maintenance EXCEED the Net Rent (after Agent’s Commisdion) noting also that 100% occupancy is not guaranteed so the property may be vacant from time to time (exacerbated by repairs and maintenance not having attention)

    Further, the sought full borrowing (and interest only to continue the advantage) aligned to the lender requiring Loan to Valuation security ratios sees the provision of collateral security and equity in that collateral security

    And bank security instruments contain Personal Covenant Clauses so every asset you own can be realised on including thru bankruptcy – not just the property security mortgaged

    Then you have to have the ability to meet the loss pending submitting a tax return and receiving the tax refund

    And, as mentioned previously we have a Cash Rate of 1.5% – the lowest interest rates have ever been

    What possibly may go wrong?

    The bottom line is that this is very high risk lending – particularly for the borrower

    And all to reduce a tax liability

    There will always be those who by choice or circumstances look to rent

    So there will always be those who will invest in property – including residential

    And that fits the agenda of diversification

    Prudent investors have equity in the asset, look to increase that equity by reducing and repaying debt looking to improve net income (so what you are able to spend)

    They do not negatively gear

    They seek the diversity and security of net income to live on

    They also expend on repairs and maintenance to enhance value and to present the property favourably when tenants vacate

  32. Mogotrone @ #1290 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 7:29 pm

    Sky News free to rural Australia.
    Am currently touring around the South West of Western Australia in my Land cruiser troopy camper van. I have taken a break from camping in a cabin . Turn on the TV Sky news and a total climate denial rant about false scientific evidence. Next total promotion of coal as a great and good. Next Tony Abbott, esteemed former PM, full on about the great and good of the Australian Embassy being in Jerusalem.
    Next Tony denying that the liberal party can’t deal with climate change according to Malcolm Turnbulls speech. ‘We will do it in a Canter” backing Scott..
    Dividing the country as in Trumps America . Rural for republics , cities for Democrats.Sheez!

    Rural Australia is changing. The National Party is divided. There is a growing recognition of climate change amongst the National Party devotees.


  33. nath says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 7:04 pm
    ..
    I wonder how the ALP would like it if the Greens preferenced the Libs in marginal seats.

    The Green party may not be smart enough to work out the difference between labor and the Liberals, but most green voters seem to be.

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