Federal election minus six months (probably)

Tales of preselection action from Hughes, Indi, Cowper, Bennelong, Chisholm, Longman and New England.

Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).

Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.

• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.

David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.

Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.

• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.

• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.

David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Federal election minus six months (probably)”

  1. The new president of the Maldives has declared the state coffers to have been looted and warned that the country is in financial difficulty after racking up debt with Chinese lenders in an infrastructure boom.

    The island nation is the latest in a number of small countries where China has invested millions of dollars building highways and housing as part of its “belt and road” initiative.

    But these projects have left the country of just over 400,000 people in debt and prompted calls for investigations into how contracts were awarded to Chinese companies during the previous administration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/18/maldives-new-president-warns-treasury-looted-during-china-led-boom?CMP=soc_568

  2. Confessions

    I certainly didn’t curtsy when I met Prince Charles and Camilla 3 years ago.

    No need to after nailing the forelock tugging ? 😀

  3. The EU and IMF “bailout for Greece” was really a bailout for reckless German and French banks.

    EU technocrats and German government officials are sociopaths with no regard for the human toll of their economically illiterate pro-bank policies.

    The EU took a strong neoliberal, anti-worker, anti-social turn in the 1980s. Sadly, it was the nominally socialist Francois Mitterrand who led this shift in priorities.

    The EU does not promote the wellbeing of people or the natural environmental. It serves the interests of capital.

    Supporting the EU in 2018 is tantamount to endorsing Tory priorities.

    It is necessary for both the EU and the Eurozone to be disbanded.

  4. Grouper Boy Briefly would clearly prefer the return of the Tories in Britain, rather than a real democratic socialist Labour government under Corbyn.

  5. lizzie

    From wiki, she sounds in fine fettle and fit as a fiddle…..
    “The Mays are passionate hikers, and they regularly spend their holidays hiking in the Swiss Alps.”

  6. At Bill Shorten’s recent town hall in Ellenbrook, he announced to a standing room only audience that Labor would provide $16m for the planned Ellenbrook pool and recreation centre.

    As is usual for the format, Shorten took unscripted questions from the floor on mental and physical health, education and transport.

    Two things of note came up:
    In a what must be a tiresome recurring theme for him, Shorten was asked about Labor’s negative gearing policy by someone who claimed to own five properties, who was concerned about the grandfathering provisions and that Labor was introducing a policy that would remove his ability to negative gear properties he bought in the future. I got the impression from some of the audible responses there was not a lot of sympathy in the room for this person.

    The venue selected was the local sports hub and we were joined by a drunk person who decided to heckle Shorten on a couple of issues and this allowed him to demonstrate his sublime skill and experience in handling an unscripted and unfriendly interaction with a potential voter. Over several interjections, he handled the heckler brilliantly and was able to make the point, broadcast on Sky, that unlike the Liberals meetings, his Town Halls were open to all comers and that all were welcome regardless of their views – he had also taken a question from the Greens candidate for Pearce.

  7. Nicholas says:

    The EU and IMF “bailout for Greece” was really a bailout for reckless German and French banks

    +100 .In the lead up to the Germans making the decision to give up the Mark many a write up said they would never agree to do so unless the Bundesbank was given shit loads of control over the EU financial sphere. Seems they got their way.

  8. Rex:
    “The Liberals and Labor right won’t be happy with Daniel Andrews’ latest socialist policy of subsidised dental care for Victorian Govt school kids.”

    I seem to recall govt led by Keating—member of Labor Right and alleged neo-liberal—added dental to Medicare in1994 via the CDHP. Dumped by Howard

    If one were being unkind one could characterise the behaviour of the Greens in ‘discovering’ this issue as similar to that of teenagers in ‘discovering’ sex

  9. Lizzie / The Australian:

    “Barnaby Joyce is pushing for the immediate ­release of a deadly herpes virus to kill wild carp, despite scientific warnings against it.”

    I really hope the Barnaby the Beetrooter’s “pushing” here is meant figuratively…

  10. Some of the benefits of the EU which you will never in a thousand years catch the ideologues like Johnson, Raab, and Nicholas admit:

    1. The EU has essentially democratized the Balkans, Middle Europe and Eastern Europe by forcing democratic governance, human rights and the rule of law as the basic entry tickets to the EU. There are around 150-200 million Europeans who are enjoying sustained democracy for the first time ever – as a direct consequence of the EU.
    But, hey, let’s all wank on about the EU being anti-democratic!
    2. The EU has essentially ensured that Europe has been war-free since 1950. But hey, let’s ignore that totally. Let’s take that for granted. Let’s just assume that splitting the EU back into its 27 constituent states will not let loose a new wave of murderous nationalist and regionalist passions. What could possibly go wrong?
    3. The EU’s NATO has been the bulwark against the Russians. But who is afraid of the Russian Bear? The Far Left and the Far Right who would love to destroy the EU are doing Putin’s work for him. And what are Putin’s claims to fame? Chechen genocide; an ongoing pogrom against gays – you know where gays are thrown off tall buildings with impunity – an ongoing program of suppressing democracy including through the systematic murder of journalists. And this is before we get to Putin’s various forays into world peace: the invasion of the Crimea, the invasion of the Ukraine and, of course, his superb human rights program in Syria! But hey, what has any of that to do with the EU?
    4. As for access to education, health, transport, housing and environmental amenity the EU has been part of enormous improvements for around 600 million europeans.

    There are, of course, many more benefits of which I discount only Eurovision.

    Apparently this is all to be fixed by printing money, splitting the EU into 27 states, recreated around a hundred borders, recreating national customs barriers, barring human movement, fracturing thousands of common standards, and make-work programs which will not exclude painting rocks white.

  11. “Shorten was asked about Labor’s negative gearing policy by someone who claimed to own five properties, who was concerned about the grandfathering provisions and that Labor was introducing a policy that would remove his ability to negative gear properties he bought in the future. “

    The correct if not politic answer that Bill could have given was that he couldn’t give a stuff. This guy’s doing fine, will probably never vote Labor, is sucking wealth from the Millenials trying to buy a place to live in, is probably paying way too little tax and is just about the last person in need to concessions and subsidies, let alone sympathy.

  12. I was out door knocking in Pearce yesterday the overall response to us was very good and Labor’s announcement that we’d fund the pool and recreation centre in Ellenbrook went down very well. .

    Unfortunately, for me, it was one of those days that is a shocker. There was a domestic violence incident underway in one of the first houses whose door I went to knock on and I had to call the police and thereafter I was only successful at identifying Liberal voters or people who were not interested in talking to us.

  13. p
    The EU is not perfect. Far from it. It is, after all, an interlocking set of human institutions.

    But it is much, much better than anything and everything that Europe had going before.

    And there is nothing at all in the promises of the sociopathic ideologues of the Far Left and the Far Right that convinces me that they have the slightest notion of what an post-EU europe would look like under their ideologies. In fact, when you look at these people closely, you know that they are nothing much more than spivs, clowns and charlatans: Johnson, Farage, Corbyn…

    They are, first and foremost, wreckers. It is fantastically easy in these days to wreck. The wannabes are queued up: Trump, Farage, Johnson, Abbott, Le Pen, Hanson…

  14. ‘Steve777 says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 5:27 pm

    I get the impression many on the Right wanted to leave the EU because it wasn’t neoliberal enough.’

    The ‘undemocratic’ rallying call of the Far Right had everything to do with wrecking governance, environmental protections and the provision of public education, health, transport and housing.

    There is one thing that is 100% certain. When the Far Right start yelling about protecting the rights of workers and citizens, the workers and the citizens would be fools to listen to them. And when the Far Left joins the Far Right in this sort of activity…

  15. S777
    IMO the correct answer is that Labor has taken his concerns into consideration and the concerns of first home buyers into consideration.
    It has therefore grandfathered his decisions.
    And it is setting up housing policies that ensure that our children and grand children can afford to buy their accommodation.
    Win win.

  16. Boerwar
    And it is setting up housing policies that ensure that our children and grand children can afford to buy their accommodation.
    _______________________________
    Yes I’m sure limiting negative gearing to new builds will mean a coming utopia for first home buyers! What a joke.

  17. I hope the May government is defeated in the Commons very soon, forcing fresh elections that create a pro-second referendum majority, a reasonable prospect in the current environment.

    The EU is the world`s second most populous jurisdiction with a democratic parliament and thus is a great hope for the expansion of democratic sovereignty, not just in proportion of the planet/people in a democracy but also in scale of democracy, rubbishing many of the arguments against a world democratic parliament.

    The EU is also a bulwark against the authoritarianism that has, in various guises, lead to Russia having the most brutal government in Europe for centuries (with some exceptions, mainly Nazi Germany but possibly also part of the time under Yeltsin).

  18. nath @ #1223 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 1:41 pm

    Boerwar
    And it is setting up housing policies that ensure that our children and grand children can afford to buy their accommodation.
    _______________________________
    Yes I’m sure limiting negative gearing to new builds will mean a coming utopia for first home buyers! What a joke.

    And how will it hurt them?

  19. Boerwar

    For me the EU is just a continuation of the fight by other means of the usual battling European empires, Germany,England and France. As an antipodean I feel very Meh about what happens. With my most recent UK born direct ancestor being born in 1861 you can see why I do nae feel much concern for the UK 🙂

  20. Barney in Go Dau
    And how will it hurt them?

    ____________________________

    Investors will just negative gear new builds. In fact, if investors move heavily into new builds, it will increase the cost of houses in outer suburban estates, exactly where first home buyers are likely to buy. So good luck with that.

  21. Player One @ #1203 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 4:50 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1037 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 12:03 pm

    P1,
    I’m a glass half full kind of person. 🙂

    Indeed. And therein lies the problem 🙁

    When it comes to global warming, you can’t make policy decisions based on an optimistic outlook.

    If you do, your policies will end up killing people.

    No, but you can’t be the Scrooge McDuck of the flock who want to do something about Global Warming either. You look forward and up, for the sunny uplands, but you make your plans with your head and not your heart.

    🙂

  22. Oh goody, Nath has moved on from quoting Murdoch’s opinion on the ALP to quoting a company specializing in brokering home loans about a reform to housing investment.

    If you’re going to troll, lift your troll game please.

  23. I have no idea who Jill Stark is, but apparently yet another person who automatically equates advocating lower immigration levels to xenophobia.

    Sad.

  24. I believe that the negative gearing policy is just aimed at people’s prejudices against those that own multiple houses. Some of which has been seen today on PB. I cannot see it as an effective policy at helping first home buyers.

  25. Stephen Dziedzic

    Verified account
    @stephendziedzic
    8m8 minutes ago

    Breaking – no consensus reached at #APEC18 No leaders communique will be issued. Deep divisions between the US and China (and others) on the language used on trade

  26. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    4h4 hours ago
    ALP target seats: 1.Corangamite, 2.Dunkley, http://3.Latrobe , 4.Robertson, 5.Reid, 6.Banks, 7.Gilmore, 8.Forde, 9.Dickson, 10.Capricornia, 11.Petrie, 12.Leichhardt, 13.Wide Bay, 14.Hasluck, 15.Stirling, 16.Pearce, 17.Canning, 18. Page. They won’t get them all but…#auspol

    He adds Bonner and Chisholm to those as well.

  27. Um, no, the joke is nath. Apparently he now knows more than the considered opinion of Australia’s finest Economists and Treasury, who have analysed Labor’s policy. 🙂

  28. Jill Stark is a senior writer for The Sunday Age. She is the author of High Sobriety, a book about Australia’s drinking culture and how she survived a year without booze.

  29. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:00 pm
    Jackol @ #1237 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 5:59 pm
    Oh goody, Nath has moved on from quoting Murdoch’s opinion on the ALP to quoting a company specializing in brokering home loans about a reform to housing investment.
    If you’re going to troll, lift your troll game please.
    I think he’s getting desperate.
    _________________________
    It doesn’t mean their logic is faulty. In fact they may know a few things about the housing market.

  30. Jackol @ #1235 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 3:00 pm

    I have no idea who Jill Stark is, but apparently yet another person who automatically equates advocating lower immigration levels to xenophobia.

    Sad.

    Yep, completely ignorant.

    Also her apparent need to inform people about the DLP. The last DLP Senator came from Victoria IIRC and it wasn’t all that long ago.

  31. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:02 pm
    Um, no, the joke is nath. Apparently he now knows more than the considered opinion of Australia’s finest Economists and Treasury, who have analysed Labor’s policy.
    ____________________
    Some links would be nice.

  32. nath says:
    Fixed it for you
    .

    I believe that the negative gearing policy is just aimed at people’s prejudices against those that take large amounts of public money so as to own multiple houses for private gain.

  33. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/16/federal-election-minus-six-months-probably/comment-page-25/#comment-3005002

    My understanding is that someone with 5 already purchased rental properties has too little to far from the ALP`s policy on negative gearing restriction because the policy only disallows income tax from wages, salaries and shares (and I suspect other non-property investments) from being reduced by negative gearing. Someone with 5 properties (whether grandfathered, post change new build or bought with negative gearing) appears still to be able to deduct negative gearing losses from taxable income from positively geared rental properties.

    https://www.alp.org.au/negativegearing

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