Federal election minus six months (probably)

Tales of preselection action from Hughes, Indi, Cowper, Bennelong, Chisholm, Longman and New England.

Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).

Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.

• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.

David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.

Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.

• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.

• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.

David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Federal election minus six months (probably)”

  1. ScoMoFaux is just icky.

    After Anderson appeared on the Nine Network’s 60 Minutes program appealing to Morrison for help bringing Assange home, he reportedly laughed about it.

    He also told Gold Coast radio station Hot Tomato FM: “I’ve had plenty of mates who have asked me if they can be my special envoy to sort the issue out with Pamela Anderson”.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/pamela-anderson-is-not-happy-with-australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison/news-story/6933a146bf9cd94591dffc55f030cd11

    Yuck. What a creep!

  2. I still haven’t heard what the ALP would do if Scotty started the move before the next election. They could just announce that they would restore the status quo (with little or no electoral downside IMHO) and leave the embassy in Tel Aviv.

  3. b
    The reason you have not heard it is that the ALP does not make a new policy every time the Coalition has a brainfart.
    Prime Example: Three months ago, Morrison was screaming blue murder because the ALP was not fully committed to the NEG.

  4. Boer – you think that (and actually so do I) but rational thought doesn’t get a look-in where these matters are concerned. So, it is best left where it is; the time is long past to re-referendum it.

  5. Boerwar @ #1146 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 11:58 am

    ‘A second referendum whatever the outcome will tear Britain apart.’

    The first referendum, which was based on lies, disinformation and a lack of information is doing just that.
    A second referendum would be fully-informed and therefore legitimate.

    And still tear Britain apart.

    The people who voted leave aren’t just misinformed boobs. They are very passionate about the issue. They are not going to be happy about having their vote overturned or even questioned.

  6. booleanbach @ #1148 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 11:04 am

    I still haven’t heard what the ALP would do if Scotty started the move before the next election. They could just announce that they would restore the status quo (with little or no electoral downside IMHO) and leave the embassy in Tel Aviv.

    You could always change it to a Palestinian Consulate and leave the Embassy in Tel Aviv. 🙂

  7. A hard Brexit – a complete clean break from this neoliberal, wage-suppressing organization – would cause short term disruption that the UK Government could offset by increases to its own spending.

    Brexit is a valuable opportunity for the Left to improve the quality of the UK’s social, economic, and environmental wellbeing.

    Boerwar and Briefly advocate Tory Lite policies that are doomed to fail.

    We need Jeremy Corbyn to implement socialist policies that make full use of the UK Government’s fiscal powers.

    The EU is badly designed and is not worth belonging to.

    If you are interested in promoting less unequal, more socially valuable land and more environmentally sustainable modes of production, you should be supporting a complete Brexit on socialist terms.

    A Tory Lite Brexit In Name Only or a Tory Lite Remain will not be good enough.

    Remainers are out of touch with the people. They are not making a constructive contribution to the debate.

  8. Does Trump understand ANYthing?

    Michael Moore
    ‏@MMFlint
    6h6 hours ago

    On a foreign visit today to California, the USA Leader (he wore a USA cap so the Californians would know where he’s from) declared that had the people of California done “more raking” these fires wouldn’t happen. He repeated that there is no “climate change” but “I want climate.”

    :large

  9. Nicholas @ #1152 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    A hard Brexit – a complete clean break from this neoliberal, wage-suppressing organization – would cause short term disruption that the UK Government could offset by increases to its own spending.

    Brexit is a valuable opportunity for the Left to improve the quality of the UK’s social, economic, and environmental wellbeing.

    Boerwar and Briefly advocate Tory Lite policies that are doomed to fail.

    We need Jeremy Corbyn to implement socialist policies that make full use of the UK Government’s fiscal powers.

    The EU is badly designed and is not worth belonging to.

    If you are interested in promoting less unequal, more socially valuable land and more environmentally sustainable modes of production, you should be supporting a complete Brexit on socialist terms.

    A Tory Lite Brexit In Name Only or a Tory Lite Remain will not be good enough.

    Remainers are out of touch with the people. They are not making a constructive contribution to the debate.

    Quite right, Nicholas.

  10. N
    You end-of-times folk lack imagination, but not spirit!
    Capital strike and capital flight are already rampant.
    High end jobs are being evacuated.
    The result is that UK growth rate is half that of the EU average.
    The debt is growing.
    Inflation ditto.
    If Corbyn were to implement his policies during a hard Brexit here are some things that would definitely happen:
    1. Huge disruptions to supply chains with Britain being recognized as huge sovereign risk and being cut out of supply chains. Thousands of factories and millions of jobs would be onshored to the EU.
    2. All the functions of the City would be shifted to Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Dublin. 65 million quid a year in taxes gone. Maybe 80,000 high end jobs to go with it.
    3. The EU tariff wall would be erected against Britain. Airfields are being set aside to act as lorry parks. Every single lorry that spends a day waiting for customs clearances is a lorry day lost and capital wasted on goods that spent a day doing nothing.
    4. Britain would have to spend a huge fortune duplicating EU functions with no net gain at all.
    5. Just in time is replaced with increased inventories to ward off the risks.
    6. British entrepreneurs would do what they are already starting to do: move to the EU, the US and Australia.
    7. Britain can grow around nine months of its food. The budget is already in deficit. Thre trade balance, ditto. The trade balance will get smashed when it loses financial services, as it is already doing. 8. 8. Borrowings/printing money are already going up to try and keep the ship afloat. Which country is going to gift Britain food for three months?
    9. Scotland would secede further reducing a shrinking economy.
    10. What are your rising millions upon millions of UJG/unemployed going to do?

    They can’t all make wassail, woad and meade.

  11. BBC / ABC same/same?

    @George Monbiot
    The BBC today gave far more coverage to French protests for cheaper fuel than to the massive and remarkable #ExtinctionRebellion protests in our own country. This is not an accident. This is an editorial decision. And it is shameful.

  12. Good afternoon all,

    Fairfax / Ipsos poll tonight ?

    Given the events and surrounding noise of the past week or so it should make interesting reading if there is.

    Cheers and a great afternoon to all.

  13. DG
    The notion that only one referendum would settle it for all time is profoundly anti-democratic.
    I would be quite happy for a referendum to be added to every single British general election.
    What is profoundly anti-democratic is to allow a Rump of raving Right and Looney Left lie their way to destroying Britain.
    Which they are doing right now.

  14. While FPJG was, to all intents and purposes, another politician who became a PM, she was able to get and keep a Labor government in office for three years, passing legislation despite having to face a thug-like LOTO in Tony Abbott, expose her back to snide and unrelenting attacks from the media, as well as those of a nasty and baleful Kevin Rudd.
    The fact that Rudd, Abbott, Turnbull, Hockey, Bishop, Joyce and Morrison have either gone or are on their way to the historical dustbin – without being loved and/or respected -says more to me than the cheap attacks on the woman from some here.
    At this point in time, my guess is history will remember Gillard well, while the above other names will be gathering dust on unknown and unlooked-at pictures on a wall somewhere in Canberra

  15. Looking at the footage of Trump visiting a place which lost 10,000 homes and maybe up to a 1000 lives made me think that perhaps he has a tin ear.
    But, really, even tin ears sort of pretend to listen.
    Trump was there to do what Trump does best: inflict pain.
    The global warming costs of this catastrophe are significant.

  16. Given that we are appoaching the traditional killing season, I take this opportunity to remind the Liberals, the Nationals and the Greens that it is not too late to get rid of their sundry dud leaders.

  17. The prime motivation for Brexit was nationalism. Nationalism doesn’t fix anything. It is used to distract people from doing something about inequality.

  18. Question says:

    The prime motivation for Brexit was nationalism. Nationalism doesn’t fix anything. It is used to distract people from doing something about inequality.

    EU policies made for of and by the “Financial Sector” sure as hell did not help.

  19. Trump was there to do what Trump does best: inflict pain.

    He is driven by an us and them mentality, and has responded to the California fires with retribution because the state is solid Democrat.

    He is a man-child/baby who has no business leading a govt.

  20. UK’s Brexit debacle could lead to Labour landslide; Greens, not far right, surge in Germany

    http://adrianbeaumont.net/uks-brexit-debacle-could-lead-to-labour-landslide-greens-not-far-right-surge-in-germany/

    If, as seems likely, the House of Commons rejects May’s Brexit deal, the UK will still leave the EU on March 29, 2019 – but under this scenario it will crash out, doing great economic damage. In this case, Labour would be likely to win the next UK election in a landslide.

    In Germany, the Greens, not the far-right AfD, have surged in the polls. The Greens are in the 20’s, only five points behind the conservative Union parties. Both major parties have shed support since the Sept 2017 election, and the Greens are likely to be the biggest left-wing party at the next election. The grand coalition between both big parties has made them more unpopular.

  21. poroti,

    A good argument for changing the EU, not abandoning it.

    Look at the people who led Brexit. People like Farage and Johnson. You think those clowns have the answers you seek?

  22. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 3:09 pm

    A hard Brexit – a complete clean break from this neoliberal, wage-suppressing organization – would cause short term disruption that the UK Government could offset by increases to its own spending.

    Brexit is a valuable opportunity for the Left to improve the quality of the UK’s social, economic, and environmental wellbeing.

    This is pure fantasy. First, it embeds mistaken assumptions about the EU. Second, it overlooks the fact that Brexit is a reactionary project of the Tory Right, who are the last political force on earth likely to adopt social spending as a way of mending the disruption that will follow Brexit. The neo-imperialist reactionaries, attempting to revive an imagined past, have won; and when chaos descends, they will blame the EU, the foreigners, the outsiders for their own impeccable stupidities.

  23. Question says:

    poroti,

    A good argument for changing the EU, not abandoning it.

    Definitely change it but given the “establishment” have their hands on the steering wheel how to persuade them to change ? Countries leaving ? That might panic them enough 😉

    The rotteness was illustrated by the so called bail outs of Greece. 90=95% of it bounced straight back into ,mainly German, banks, in other words a Bankster bail out. The ‘peasantry’ slugged because the banking chaps got greedy and made loans they should not have.

    Especially pricks like this lot

    “The Deutsche Bank Downfall

    How a Pillar of German Banking Lost Its Way

    It is a story about how Hilmar Kopper, Rolf E. Breuer and Josef Ackermann, the leaders of Deutsche Bank during those fateful years, essentially turned over the bank to a hastily assembled group of Anglo-American investment bankers before Anshu Jain, the prince of these traders, rose to the top and spent three more years sailing the bank full-speed-ahead into the shoals.
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/the-story-of-the-self-destruction-of-deutsche-bank-a-1118157.html

  24. Interesting detail on Chinese aid.

    The project comes as China increases its infrastructure push into PNG, including hospitals and a major road in Port Moresby.

    But locals have criticised China for building unnecessary projects that don’t help the community – the road China ripped up and replaced was already one of the best in PNG.

    The Chinese projects have also been funded with “aid money”, but they are built by Chinese workers, using Chinese materials, and the money goes back to Chinese companies.

    Australia will commit $25 million in the first year, and will ensure fibre optic cable is rolled out as part of the grid.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/apec-2018-australia-joins-global-alliance-to-power-up-png

  25. briefly
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 4:13 pm

    This is pure fantasy. First, it embeds mistaken assumptions about the EU. Second, it overlooks the fact that Brexit is a reactionary project of the Tory Right, who are the last political force on earth likely to adopt social spending as a way of mending the disruption that will follow Brexit. The neo-imperialist reactionaries, attempting to revive an imagined past, have won; and when chaos descends, they will blame the EU, the foreigners, the outsiders for their own impeccable stupidities.

    I also look back in fondness. Back to the post war period when governments spoke of social contracts. It would be nice if we found ourselves in the same place, but without the war, which is exactly where the last bout of worldwide nationalism took us.

  26. The Chinese projects have also been funded with “aid money”, but they are built by Chinese workers, using Chinese materials, and the money goes back to Chinese companies.

    Sounds pretty much US SOP post WWII reconstruction ‘aid’ .

  27. “The PM says her husband is protective over her.”
    That sounded nice and I wondered in what way he was protective.

    Commenting on the backlash to the deal, Mrs May acknowledged it had been “a pretty heavy couple of days”.

    She revealed her husband Philip, who she described as her “rock”, had helped her through it – at one point pouring her a whisky and making beans on toast.

    So in the middle of crucial negotiations which might impel Britain into an unknown crisis for years, Ms May is relieved of the need to cook a meal for herself. And husband pours her a drink. Wow!

    Perhaps it was in the middle of the night when the servants were off duty.

    But this is the PM, for goodness sake.

  28. She revealed her husband Philip, who she described as her “rock”, had helped her through it – at one point pouring her a whisky and making beans on toast.

    😆 😆 😆 Such devotion to duty and personal sacrifice. The man is a saint. goodness know why people say the Tories are out of touch.

  29. Briefly says,

    when chaos descends, they will blame the EU, the foreigners, the outsiders

    You would have think the following quite likely now.
    1) A hard Brexit will happen.
    2) Nationalism focussed Brexit.
    3) A hard Brexit will cause pain to the majority of Britain, particularly to the Irish.

    So.

    1) How quickly will anger drive extreme nationalism in Britain, and which nations will be blamed, and will any be looked to for help or refuge? (I can see Australia taking British economic refuges.)
    2) How long will the turmoil last?
    3) Is this Britain’s exit not just from the EU but from world affairs?
    4) Are there any parallels to be drawn to the break up of the USSR? (Scotland, Ireland, nuclear weapons.)

    The questions are endless.

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