Federal election minus six months (probably)

Tales of preselection action from Hughes, Indi, Cowper, Bennelong, Chisholm, Longman and New England.

Roughly six months out from a likely federal election, a gathering storm of preselection action. (Note also the thread below this one on the Victorian election campaign).

Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports Scott Morrison has sought to save Craig Kelly from a preselection defeat in Hughes, but that moderate backers of challenger Kent Johns are not to be deterred. According to a source identified as one of his conservative allies, Kelly “has been remiss in looking after his branches and would be lucky to have 25 per cent of the vote”. Quoth a moderate: “As far as the moderates are concerned, Malcolm Turnbull saved Concetta Fierravanti-Wells and Angus Taylor and Kelly last time, and look what they did to him.” Among the quandaries this raises are that Kelly may react to his defeat by moving to the cross-benches, further weakening the already shaky position of the government.

• There have been a few suggestions that Barnaby Joyce may fall foul of a new candidate-vetting process the Nationals have introduced, ostensibly to prevent further Section 44 mishaps. Figures in the party appear to have been putting it about that Joyce might face trouble due to the fear that even after the events of the past year, there remain “skeletons in the closet”. However, inquiries by Richard Ferguson of The Australian suggest that “a few members on the NSW Nationals’ 84-people-strong central council do plan to refuse to endorse Mr Joyce but they are in the minority”.

David Johnston of the Border Mail reports nominees for a Liberal preselection vote for Indi, to be held on December 8, include Steve Martin, project manager for the Mars Petcare Wodonga plant expansion and Seeley International’s relocation from Albury to Wodonga, and Stephen Brooks, a local businessman. Another potential nominee is Greg Mirabella, husband of former member Sophie Mirabella. The seat’s independent member, Cathy McGowan, has not yet committed to seeking another term. The report also raises the possibility that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who is preparing to move her electorate office to Wodonga, might run for the Nationals.

Christian Knight of the Nambucca Guardian reports the Nationals have preselected Patrick Conaghan, a local solicitor who was formerly a police officer and North Sydney councillor, to succeed the retiring Luke Hartsuyker in Cowper. The other candidates were Chris Genders, a newsagent; Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business; and Judy Plunkett, a Port Macquarie pharmacist. Conaghan appears to have won over half the vote in the first round.

• Labor has recruited Brian Owler, neurosurgeon and former Australian Medical Association president, as its candidate for Bennelong. The party had initially preselected Lyndal Howison, communications manager at the Whitlam Institute and the party’s candidate in 2016, but she agreed to step aside for Owler.

• Gladys Liu, director of Blue Ribbon Consultancy, has been preselected as the Liberal candidate to succeed Julia Banks in Chisholm, having emerged “the clear winner in the field of eight candidates”, according to Liberal sources cited by Benjamin Preiss of The Age. Other candidates included Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor, and Litsa Pillios, an accountant. James Campbell of the Herald Sun reports Liu had backing from party president Michael Kroger and conservative powerbroker Michael Sukkar.

David Alexander of the Pine Rivers Press reports the Liberal National Party has preselected local small businessman Terry Young as its candidate for Longman. The party recorded a portentously weak showing in the seat at the Super Saturday by-election on July 28, for which Young was an unsuccessful preselection candidate.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,349 comments on “Federal election minus six months (probably)”

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  1. If ScoMo was going to move the embassy, it would be smart to just do it. In the current state of “just thinking about it”, the government is getting all the pain and none of the gain (and the pain will probably outweigh the gain).

  2. Manus Island naval base – it looks to be more of a blocking move on China moving into PNG as opposed to base that Australia or the USA actually needs. The US has Guam to the north.

  3. These rank amateurs having their policy fights in public knows no end. And foreign policy ones at that. Just as Labor is about to release a fully formed matured policy on energy.

  4. Boerwar – Trump would be happy with us.
    Some in the Jewish community would be happy.
    A lot of happy clappers would be happier.
    A few small gains.

  5. How many Trade Ministers have there been over the 5 years of the Coalition government!?! They seem to change them as often as they change their socks!

  6. BSF
    Australia’s defensive arc is basically Indonesia, PNG, the Solomons, New Caledonia and New Zealand.
    If we can learn to stop insulting Indonesia, it will look after itself and New Zealand will look after themselves.
    PNG was in play. That looks sorted.
    The Solomons are still in play.
    New Caledonia has been put on the shelf because of the recent plebiscite on independence.
    But the long term trend is that New Caledonia will will become independent and go into play.

  7. So, Birmingham says he hopes the Free Trade Deal with Indonesia will be signed in the ‘coming months’. A FTA that was lined up to be signed this week at ASEAN!

  8. B.S. Fairman says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 9:14 am

    Boerwar – Trump would be happy with us.
    Some in the Jewish community would be happy.
    A lot of happy clappers would be happier.
    A few small gains.

    Taking each in turn:

    Trump turns on a dime. Not worth the investment. No guarantees. No real gain.
    There is no real gain to the national interest in the Morrison Government cementing relations with the Netanyahu-ites in Australia.
    Keeping Happy Clappers happy is not a gain in the national interest.

  9. Simon Birmingham’s relentlessly positive “No wogs, dagoes or Muslims are gunna tell us how to run our country” line epitomizes what’s wrong with the ScoMo mob.

  10. The Morrison Government routinely frames the international context of the embassy decision thus

    ‘dictate to’, ‘reactive to’ and ‘being bullied by any other nation’

    This is sheer, arrogant stupidity and is designed to feed straight into the Bolt worldview.

    These terms routinely insult Indonesia and Malaysia. Why do it?

    In international relations the proper terms are ‘seeking consensus’ ‘making trade offs’ ‘working together towards’ and ‘taking into account the views and interests of friendly countries’.

  11. This federal government doesn’t know the meaning of constructive dialogue about issues with your neighbours. Who are also sovereign nations, with their own agendas. We aren’t the only one around!

  12. zoomster
    says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 6:49 am
    And nath, of course, reveals his sexism.
    There are several other PMs receiving exactly the same benefits as Julia Gillard, most of them doing far less than she is. But he only singles out one for criticism.
    ____________________________________
    You are partially correct. The reason I singled out JG was in direct relation to the SPP which she cut and the ‘leaners’ comment from poroti. But yes, Kevin Rudd is a more egregious case than Julia Gillard. We are paying to support his fantasies of leading the U.N. All these retired ex-PM’s have taken more welfare than anyone in Australian history. They are the leaners.

  13. Boerwar – I didn’t say the small gains would be in the national interest – just in ScoMo’s interest. They don’t even get these being half pregnant.

  14. lizzie @ #897 Sunday, November 18th, 2018 – 8:51 am

    Since 1970 humanity has wiped out 60% of mammals, birds, fish and reptiles, according to the latest Living Planet report by WWF, which warned that the loss of wildlife was now an emergency that is threatening our civilisation.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/17/habitat-loss-biodiversity-wildlife-climate-change?CMP=soc_568

    And there is also this …

    The objective is to have an accord with the same level of political commitment as the Paris climate treaty and to recognise that the two issues are linked.

    In the current political climate, that will be difficult. Even climate talks have struggled to make sufficient progress. Conservationists say an intermeshing of the two threats is essential if they are to get global attention.

    “Many of the things we need to do to address biodiversity loss are exactly what we need to solve the climate problem,” said Matt Walpole of Flora and Fauna International. “We haven’t succeeded in getting across how important biodiversity is. It’s not just about a few endangered species. It is absolutely clear that what is happening to our ecosystems has an impact on humanity.”

    No doubt Australia will be a ‘recalcitrant’ country on Biodiversity as well. It is no coincidence that we are amongst the world’s worst offenders for both C02 emissions and biodiversity loss.

    🙁

  15. z

    ‘The reason I singled out JG…’

    Is that nath constantly and consistently seeks one form of outcome: to have Bludgers talk about some form or other of ‘Labor Bad’.
    It is called agenda setting.
    It means that Bludgers are NOT talking about Liberal Bad and that Bludgers are NOT talking about Labor Good.
    It is an oldie and a fave for political hacks.

  16. ‘B.S. Fairman says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 9:29 am

    Boerwar – I didn’t say the small gains would be in the national interest – just in ScoMo’s interest. They don’t even get these being half pregnant.’

    Oh. It looks as if we are on the same page.

  17. Also the embassy issue has completely messed up the FTA with Indonesia. Indonesia has its own internal politics and one of the big issues for the current Indonesian government is there was massive outrage at US move (over a million people protested outside the US embassy and it almost turned ugly). So there is no way Jokowi can be seen to befriend Australia with issue in the air.

  18. Obvious take away from Insiders is the level of incompetence from the Government, when will the penny drop .. the Government is made up of Australian business / banker class & they have proved to be world class incompetent.

  19. Boerwar
    Is that nath constantly and consistently seeks one form of outcome: to have Bludgers talk about some form or other of ‘Labor Bad’.
    It is called agenda setting.
    ________________________
    Oh please. Why don’t you name me one policy the ALP has to address one aspect of social justice. You can’t because apart from a few more solar panels and a minor change to negative gearing there is not much difference between the coalition and the ALP. You are just cheering for one football team over another.

  20. zoomster

    ‘nath says:
    Sunday, November 18, 2018 at 9:42 am

    Boerwar
    Is that nath constantly and consistently seeks one form of outcome: to have Bludgers talk about some form or other of ‘Labor Bad’.
    It is called agenda setting.
    ________________________
    Oh please. Why don’t you name me one policy the ALP has to address one aspect of social justice.’

    See what I mean?

  21. Isn’t it the Banks job to search around to give loans to ‘Good Debt’ cases? So why the need for the federal government to get into the game?

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