The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.
Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.
UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.
“Julie Bishop only got only vote from her home state in the last spill. The men in the Federal Liberal Party would rather lose than be lead by a woman.”
Obviously but losing is one thing, by this much?
jen:
I agree. Even Abbott never received this level of mockery, and Abbott was the undisputed master of embarrassing himself in myriad different ways.
With Morrison, there isn’t even much malice behind the mockery (apart from bitter partisans like us) – everyone’s just laughing at the clown who managed to become PM.
I think things are going to get a lot worse for Morrison before they get any better. After tonight’s result, expect more stunts, more captain calls, more desperate attempts to shift the agenda. If he doesn’t call an early election, I reckon its becoming almost a given that we will see another leadership spill before polling day.
ItzaDream:
[‘Or Bishop is that dumb, or vain, to take it on.’]
I hope she doesn’t as she’d be worth a couple of points in the primary vote.
By the way, the YouGov Galaxy poll is reporting Herbert as 55:45 to the Tories.
But the strawberries saw terrorism legislation revisited with assurances given
Fat lot of good that did
Meanwhile we had someone whose Passport had been cancelled to stop him from travelling to Syria to fight for IS
If he had of liked strawberries they may have sussed to him
Who exactly are they taking advice from?
Howard?
Herald Sun front page: “Kick them out” – with reference to the Bourke Street stabber.
Did a bit of Googling re Evangelical Christianity recently, being a topical subject right now. I came across this blog by an American former Evangelical pastor, now a humanist and athiest. Here a sample entry:
https://brucegerencser.net/2015/07/16-reasons-why-i-am-not-a-christian/
I like reasons 8 and 12.
Evangelicalanism is religion for people who don’t like thinking and don’t have much concern for their fellow beings. They’re OK, they’re saved.
Michael
I continue to be amazed how hopeless Morrison is in the job.
And I don’t think we’ve reached ‘Peak Stupid’ yet!
The Courier Mail trying to polish a Turd
BILL Shorten has spectacularly failed to capitalise on Malcolm Turnbull’s political beheading as Queensland voters turn to Scott Morrison and provide motive for the coup.
The new Prime Minister’s “blokey, down-to-earth” style is resonating with Queenslanders and the LNP base, which was turned off by Mr Turnbull, sparking stalwarts to turn in their membership and donors to close their wallets.
Of course this 55-45 poll means that any shift back, even to 54-46, can be proclaimed as the start of a Morison resurgence!
Not joking – can see The Australian headlines now.
Upnorth
Do you think the writer is secretly laughing at his uber boss when writing this stuff? Because it almost sounds like it.
I think the chances of Morrison (or his successor) willingly calling an early election are pretty remote, unless there’s a sudden spike in their polling. Yes, it may well be the best way to avoid an even worse loss further down the track, but that would require the government to look at things objectively, accept the inevitable loss, and focus entirely on minimizing the damage. Nothing they’ve done so far this parliamentary term suggests this to be likely.
Morrison, at least, definitely is not in loss minimization mode – he’s clearly trying to win, and is throwing everything at the wall in the hopes something sticks. I don’t know how willing Bishop or Dutton would be to sacrifice their careers to save the furniture – if they were to take over before the election, it would be because, like Morrison, they were under the delusion that they could turn things around and be re-elected.
Even the best governments start doing pretty stupid shit when they are facing an electoral thrashing, and this is, er, not one of the best governments. I fully expect that they will have to be dragged kicking and screaming to an election, doing everything humanly possible – including calling separate house and senate elections – to buy time in the desperate hope that some sort of black swan comes along to save them.
A topless feminist activist get close to Trump’s limousine:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/topless-protester-gets-close-to-donald-trump-s-car-in-paris-20181111-p50feq.html
Upnorth:
Bloody hell, is that real?
Even for the Courier Mail, that is… something else. Are they seriously trying to suggest that the poll shows the Morrison’s “blokey style” is resonating with voters when his approval ratings have dropped!
It reads more like a Poll Bludger’s prediction of how the MSM would spin the result, not an actual news article an actual journalist was paid actual money to write.
Mavis Smith:
Knowing Trump, I can’t imagine he’d have been too displeased about the incident.
I wonder if he was angry at his security for dragging her away.
Michael
Hawke was only Opposition Leader for the period of the election campaign before he became PM. Of course he had a lot of other life experience skills before that
The window for a December election has probably closed. The now earliest practical election date would be one called on the first ‘normal’ day of 2019, Tuesday 2019, immediately after the Australia Day long weekend. That would be March 2, 2019. A similar timetable was adopted by John Howard in 1996 and Paul Keating in 1993.
The NSW election is due March 23, so probably only the 2nd and 9th are likely dates. Then the NSW election, School Holidays, a late Easter weekend running into Anzac Day and we are into May.
A separate half-Senate election, by a Government already distinctly on the nose, as a transparent attempt to maintain hands on the levers of powers for another couple of months? Crikey, the scale of the pizzling they’d get would be epic.
I wouldn’t give much credence to the YouGov Galaxy poll, which the “CM” is I think referring to. It’s sample size is only 839.
[‘I wonder if he was angry at his security for dragging her away.’]
I’ll pay that one, Asha.
Perspective is the thing. And boy do the Libs not have any.
Perspective is on my mind tonight after watching this just released or rediscovered 1994 Carl Sagan (1934 – 1996) talk in which he addresses anthropomorphic geocentric chauvinism and the great human conceits of arrogance and self-importance. (Speaking of Liberals).
It’s the talk in which he crescendos to the legendary exposition of Earth as the Pale Blue Dot. He’s quite poetic, and hypnotic, and his closing thoughts about our little blue home are moving in their profound simplicity, even more so now that Climate Change has become so apparent and pressing, and denied.
People like Morrison, and Abbott, and the rest of the deniers and vassals of false gods should be tied to a chair and made to listen. Every day before they go to ‘work’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_-jtyhAVTc&feature=youtu.be&platform=hootsuite
(60 mins, then questions)
There’s a male and female bimbo on Sky at moment, praising the results of a question asked in the Oz re.a republic. I didn’t get the figures, but the pro-republican vote is the lowest in a generation, on the back Harry’s and Meghan’s recent visit.
Anyway, that’s me for tonight, a great night all in all.
There was a comment earlier on that Morrison was heading off on several junkets in the next few weeks.
It is obvious he has never been in gainful employment in his sheltered life, or he would be aware that you don’t take holidays when the business is doing badly, or you’ve stuffed up badly yourself.
The result is usually unemployment, the message being conveyed by email, and your personal stuff following shortly thereafter via courier or taxi.
But the Ba…..se!
Steve I don’t quite follow.
An election held on March 2 2019.
When would that be called?
WWP
Not my genre but Anais Nin, Nicholson Baker and John Updike.
“WWP
Not my genre but Anais Nin, Nicholson Baker and John Updike.”
If it were my genre I wouldn’t need to ask, but I’m trying to learn new things! Thank you.
rossco @ 11.28pm
Hawke had also been National President of the ALP going back to 1973, and had figured as the part of the “Hayden, Hawke and Wran” triumvirate in the ALP’s 1980 election campaign. As well as being ACTU President. So his short tenure as parliamentary party leader was underpinned by a lot of high level leadership experience both in the ALP and in public life. There’s nothing comparable in Mr Morrison’s background.
Essentially, I think what we are seeing here is a scenario which has played out in many workplaces across Australia, and certainly in the public service: the person who is put into a management job despite not really knowing the area, perhaps to introduce “new ideas”, who talks more than he listens, repeats previous mistakes from which others have learnt, ticks off the people who know what they are doing, generally turns out to be a dud, and usually has to be shifted out after a year or so, having done quite a lot of damage.
Michael
That could be any of the last 5 liberal leaders.
“An election held on March 2 2019.
When would that be called?”
Tuesday January 29 at latest, which is the day after the Australia Day long weekend (the 26th is a Saturday).
Roger Miller @ 12.06am
Though oddly enough, I’ve heard good things (second hand) about Dr Nelson’s time as Ambassador to NATO: at least some DFAT professionals apparently regarded him as one of the best outside appointees with whom they had worked, not least because unlike some of them, he took the job very seriously and worked hard.
Good night all (who are still up).
Back to the future: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jknLRQA8kmw
Asha Leu says:
Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 11:25 pm
Upnorth:
Bloody hell, is that real?
Yep the Curious Snail at its Labor thumping best.
Night all. Sweet Newspoll Dreams
Michael
His current staff may not be so thrilled.
Thanks Steve.
Well….i really thought that the polling would have recovered for the Libs back to 53/47 or so by now. Looks to me like all those punters who had made up their minds before are still locked in, and the Libs have actually driven a few more votes away. Bright Bunnies them wot??
Good to see that the Greens / Others vote isnt going up. Might bode well for a Senate that the ALP can work with if there is no visible shift to RWNJobbie type crossbenchers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/10/us/florida-senate-governor-votes-recount.html
I really hope Morrison goes to an election before the next budget. Otherwise god help us with the potential damage he’ll do trying to buy votes. Desperate governments tend to spend with abandon.
Morning all. Interesting Newspoll. Looks like Australian voters can tell the difference between a bus passenger and a leader.
We can forget about an early election on these numbers. It will be the last day possible in May. Many Liberal MPs will now start retirement announcements over the break. They are done.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Well it seem obvious that Australians aren’t too keen on having a hyperactive show pony as PM.
Sean Kelly reckons Morrison should wake up to himself and face reality.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/scott-morrison-s-best-chance-at-winning-the-next-election-20181110-p50f9m.html
The Australian’s Simon Benson sums it up by saying the Coalition continues to slide down the slippery poll.
https://outline.com/VZDGYf
Sam Maiden says that the horror Newspoll proves Turnbull right.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/11/11/newspoll-scott-morrison/
The WSU’s V-C Andy Marks says it’s time for politicians to get off the buses.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/time-our-politicians-got-off-the-buses-20181111-p50fd7.html
And Greg Jericho tells us how a tetchy Scott Morrison still can’t explain why he’s in the job.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/grogonomics/2018/nov/11/tetchy-scott-morrison-still-cant-explain-why-hes-in-the-job
Emmanuel Macron has let fly at nationalism at the 100th anniversary of the armistice. All world leaders were there – mot Morrison though.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/nationalism-is-a-betrayal-of-patriotism-france-s-president-lectures-the-powerful-20181111-p50fes.html
Chris Bowen has written a piece for The Australian in which he explains that while the Liberals argue blindly they have the best plan, it is the Labor Party that has the best offering for business.
https://www.outline.com/5hvqNS
Australian Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins writes about the shocking treatment women involved in sexual harassment cases have had. She is calling on employers with non-disclosure agreements in place in relation to sexual harassment complaints to suspend these for the purpose of allowing all parties to those agreements to contribute to our National Inquiry.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/take-the-gag-off-those-with-sexual-harassment-stories-20181111-p50fcu.html
Latika Bourke tells us how Roman Quaedvlieg is using Twitter and other forms of the media to great effect.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-compassion-quadvelieg-dumps-on-morrison-over-asylum-claims-20181112-p50fex.html
Australian police should adopt a British model of taking down terrorists, according to an international security expert who also said Australian police were yet to learn the lessons from Sydney’s Lindt cafe siege four years ago.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/new-armed-terror-squad-needed-to-take-down-attackers-specialist-says-20181111-p50fds.html
John McDuling explains how Nine-Fairfax could make ‘Jonestown’ a very different place.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/how-nine-fairfax-could-make-jonestown-a-very-different-place-20181111-p50fc2.html
Meanwhile Alan Jones has been sensationally disciplined by the board and management of Macquarie Media, which refuses to confirm or deny if it has forced its star breakfast presenter to pay some of the costs of the multi-million defamation action brought against the company by the Wagner brothers.
https://outline.com/mF7dNu
Adele Ferguson reports that the Consumer Action Law Centre told a Senate inquiry an explosion of buy-now-pay-later services comes when Australians hold record levels of household debt. She says the inquiry, whose report is set down for next Fevruary, will no doubt be used as part of an election campaign by the ALP to continue to prosecute for reforms of the country’s financial system. We certainly need them.
https://outline.com/uwPLMR
Linda Morris writes about the pushback against the Anglican school principles’ letter about gay students and teachers.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abbotsleigh-alumni-lead-march-in-support-of-equality-20181109-p50f4c.html
We are still making many mistakes with recycling.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/the-number-one-recycling-mistake-australians-are-still-making-20181111-p50fc4.html
Alison Brown writes that the federal government (ie Spud) has struggled to explain why despite cancelling the passport of the Bourke Street attacker in 2015 it failed to trigger further monitoring of his activities by the intelligence agencies and possibly prevent Friday’s tragedy.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/passport-cancellation-not-enough-to-raise-red-flags-dutton-20181111-p50fe7.html
And Michael Koziol tells us about Dutton’s rather intemperate presser on the subject yesterday.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/unacceptable-peter-dutton-demands-more-co-operation-from-muslim-leaders-on-terrorism-20181111-p50fdx.html
As does a more forthright Amy Remeikis.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/11/peter-dutton-pathway-to-citizenship-should-be-examined-after-terror-attack
More than $90000 has been raised for the homeless “Trolley Man” via GoFundMe.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-got-him-but-he-didn-t-go-down-trolley-man-tells-how-he-rammed-bourke-street-attacker-20181110-p50fau.html
Paul Daley writes that Australia has reached peak Anzac – and not before time!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2018/nov/12/australia-has-reached-peak-anzac-and-not-before-time
Sydney’s auction clearance rate is heading towards a 30-year low after hitting 41 per cent on preliminary figures over the past week.
https://outline.com/Wm9GsZ
Australia’s largest food charity has called out the government for slashing its funding for a key program by almost half just six weeks from Christmas, a situation it says “beggars belief”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/12/coalition-cuts-funding-for-foodbank-charity-by-323000-a-year
Ross Gittins wants the G20 to keep going.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-g20-is-a-talkfest-we-need-to-keep-talking-20181109-p50f12.html
Lyn Bender tells us why we should no longer accept substandard aged care. Soon enough, we’ll need it, too.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/aged-care-done-dirt-cheap,12075
The Democrat likely to lead the House intelligence committee next year said Congress would investigate whether Donald Trump used “the instruments of state power to punish the press” in at least two alleged instances.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/11/democrats-investigate-trump-cnn-washington-post
Some MPs are saying that behaviour in the NSW bear pit is ‘a disgrace and an embarrassment’.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/behaviour-in-the-nsw-bear-pit-a-disgrace-and-an-embarrassment-20181111-p50fcc.html
The Queensland freight rail operator Aurizon is understood to be in discussions with Adani that will hinge on who pays for upgrades to the existing rail network, as the Indian mining company tries to resolve significant elements of its scaled-down plans.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/11/adani-faces-questions-over-who-will-pay-for-aurizon-rail-link-upgrade
Soon-to-be-published research will show roughly 22 per cent of China’s urban housing stock is unoccupied, according to Professor Gan Li, who runs the main nationwide study. That adds up to more than 50 million empty homes, he said.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/the-economy/ghost-cities-50-million-homes-in-china-are-empty-20181110-p50f70.html
Top Democrats have demanded that Acting Attorney General Matthew Whitaker recuse himself from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, citing hostile statements toward the probe and alleging he has multiple conflicts of interest.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/democrats-demand-matthew-whitaker-recuse-himself-from-mueller-probe-20181112-p50ff0.html
Matthew Coscia provides an insider’s view on the deceptive ways of the gaming industry.
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-attack-of-the-pokies-,12080
The administrators of now-collapsed Foodora Australia have admitted it is “more likely than not” their food delivery riders were employees rather than independent contractors – and are owed more than $5m in unpaid wages.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/10/foodora-australia-admits-riders-owed-5m-were-more-likely-than-not-employees
Are single-sex public schools on the nose?
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/single-sex-public-schools-leave-my-daughters-stranded-in-the-past-20181017-p50a39.html
https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-attack-of-the-pokies-,12080
Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nothing-to-hide-charity-boss-rejects-20m-misappropriation-20181109-p50f44.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe with Trump in France for 11/11.
From Mark David.
Glen Le Lievre and the blue bus.
Just a few more in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-november-12-2018-20181111-h17rvp.html
The guy was born in Australia so we have Dutton carrying on with this crap:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/11/peter-dutton-pathway-to-citizenship-should-be-examined-after-terror-attack
We need to look at ‘pathways’ to the PMship and if Dutton is the ‘next cab off the rank’, no thanks.
FauxMo needs to get a tattoo. What will it say, and where to put it?
Rick WilsonVerified account @TheRickWilson
Get yourself a lover who looks at you the way Trump looks at Putin.
….. a penny for Macron’s and Merkel’s thoughts.
Thanks for your wonderful work BK. You are the best.
This link:
___________
Adele Ferguson reports that the Consumer Action Law Centre told a Senate inquiry an explosion of buy-now-pay-later services comes when Australians hold record levels of household debt. She says the inquiry, whose report is set down for next Fevruary, will no doubt be used as part of an election campaign by the ALP to continue to prosecute for reforms of the country’s financial system. We certainly need them.
https://outline.com/uwPLMR
_______________________
Reminded me of a sign I saw in our local Harvey Norman store – buy now, pay no deposit, pay off over three years, with no interest.
A good deal if you are reliable with debts owed. Not so much otherwise, you wind up with more than you can pay for, zero interest or no.
But it is a far cry from the scene when I was younger, where hire purchase companies (promoted by used car dealers in particular) charged very high interest rates.
“Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate…”
Love it!
When your only tool is a hammer, your only answer is a nail.
When your only experience is in advertising, your only solution is a stunt.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
Parliament’s baaaack! 😀
BK,
https://sayingimages.com/wp-content/uploads/the-happy-old-man-awesome-meme.jpeg
All I can think of is Tienanmen Square. Would you trust Dutton?