Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor

A world of hurt for the Coalition from Newspoll, with voting intention deep into crisis territory and Scott Morrison’s standing continuing to decline.

The Australian reports this fortnight’s Newspoll is even worse for the Coalition than last time, with the Labor lead now at 55-45. Labor now holds a five point lead on the primary vote, being up one to 40% with the Coalition down one to 35%, while the Greens and One Nation are steady on 9% and 6% respectively. Despite/because of last week’s charm offensive in Queensland, Scott Morrison’s personal ratings continue to deteriorate, being down two on approval to 39% and up three on disapproval to 47%. His lead as preferred prime minister has also narrowed, from 43-35 to 42-36. Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 50%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1802.

Also out today are the federal voting intention numbers from the YouGov Galaxy poll of Queensland, for which state voting intention numbers were provided yesterday. This has the two parties level on two-party preferred in the state, which is unchanged on the last such poll at the tail end of the Malcolm Turnbull era. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 34%, One Nation down one to 9% and the Greens steady on 9% (also included as a response option is Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party, scoring all of 1%). The poll also finds 29% saying they would be more likely to vote Coalition now Scott Morrison is Prime Minister, with 25% opting for less likely and 42% for no difference. The poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 839. The Courier-Mail’s report on the poll can be found here, though I wouldn’t bother if I were you.

UPDATE: The Australian also has Newspoll results on becoming a republic, which records a dramatic ten point drop in support since April, from 50% to 40%, with “strongly in favour” down from 25% to 15%. Opposition is up from 41% to 48%, although strong opposition is steady at 22%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,343 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor”

  1. lizzie @ #1029 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 4:27 pm

    Smug Morrison

    Sky News Australia

    .@ScottMorrisonMP: I’m a member of a religious community and my Pastor knows what’s going on in our community. If there was someone who was teaching things not in accordance with what our faith believed they’d be pointing it out.

    Then the Pastor should be pointing out that there’s a member of his community who is keeping children in an island prison to the detriment of their mental and physical health at the outrage of the Medical Profession and swathes of others of every religion, or none. And that the very same member of his community has been caught out red handed trying to hinder good people trying to feed the poor.

    Or else the Pastor should ‘fess up to not being Christian, at all.

  2. I doubt that Melbourne was pleased to see him.

    The Prime Minister said religious communities must “keep the wolves” from coming in among the sheep.

    He insisted Hassan Khalif Shire Ali who was killed after he went on a violent rampage on Friday had been radicalised in Melbourne.

    “He wasn’t radicalised in a suburban mall. He wasn’t radicalised in a school room. He was radicalised in a community here in Melbourne,” he said.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/morrison-visits-bourke-st-urges-muslim-leaders-to-keep-wolves-out-20181113-p50fp5.html

  3. Are we discussing the guy that wanted the the PM of Australia in a chafe bag and drowning her. When you think about it he shouldn’t be on the airways, he should be in jail for inciting terrorism.

  4. lizzie says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 4:58 pm
    I doubt that Melbourne was pleased to see him.

    The Prime Minister said religious communities must “keep the wolves” from coming in among the sheep.

    Morrison is a nasty piece of work, no doubt. What a low-life opportunist troll he is.

  5. harking back to Foodbank, . . . .

    FB knows how many people it feeds per month
    FB knows that the program the government targeted to stop was the program that ordered rice, bread, cereals and staples directly from manufacturers
    FB lost its funding to OzHarvest and SecondBite both organisations collect old food from retailers then redistribute

    Contrast
    The government does not have such tight command of operational figures
    Someone doesn’t think Foodbank should give away food that they have had manufactured. Is it a supermarket chain or a “give to the deserving poor” mentality that says the poor should be grateful for whatever crumbs they get.
    Why should SecondBite get Foodbank’s funding – who have they schmoozed?

    All in all it’s the contrast between charity being dispensed by the entrenched privileged elite and an efficiently run process driven organisation that respects its clientele

  6. Sorry Mavis, my idea of stupid joke. But it turns out Westington is a thing, supposedly about the shifting from British government norms to U.S.

    Development in the Asia Pacific: A Public Policiy Perspective
    https://books.google.com.au/books?isbn=3110884607
    Jong S. Jun – 2017 – ‎Business & Economics
    The early characteristics of the transition from Washminster toward Westington are difficult to monitor and date with any precision


  7. Bree says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 4:06 pm

    No swinging voter cares about the climate change hoax, we should pull out of the Paris Accord just like President Trump correctly did, which will immediately reduce electricity bills for Australians.

    The liberals have got a long way to go before they get back to the conservative base. When your primary vote is about 15% you will be there

  8. The management of the Coalition budget is just a huge pea and thimble trick.

    Vice-chancellors are also reeling about a planned “national interest test” for research grants issued through the Australian Research Council. On Sunday, Fairfax Media revealed the test would preclude projects deemed to undermine Australia’s security, foreign policy and strategic interests.

    Other irritants include a planned review of free expression on campus and Education Minister Dan Tehan’s plan to force student protesters to pay for their own security at events they disrupt – as well as a proposed levy on universities for every student who accesses a government loan.

    The Group of Eight called it a “blatant new tax” dressed up as cost recovery. The bill, introduced in September, is yet to pass the Parliament.

    Mr Tehan defended the government’s decision to raid the research coffers as a “small re-allocation within the $17 billion higher education budget”. He said it would help give regional students the same opportunities as their capital city counterparts.

    Much of the money will fund new student places at institutions in the key election battleground of Queensland, including James Cook University and the University of the Sunshine Coast, effectively exempting them from the freeze applied last year.

    But even regional vice-chancellors who will benefit from the $134 million cash injection were angered to learn the money had been reallocated from research funding.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-are-under-assault-major-universities-go-to-war-with-morrison-government-over-research-cuts-20181112-p50fih.html

  9. “Morrison is a nasty piece of work, no doubt. What a low-life opportunist troll he is.”

    No one should be deceived by the blokey bonhomie.

  10. The Bourke street guy hadn’t been in any church for a decade. What I don’t understand is why Morrison has to pick on someone elses god; why wasn’t his god up to the task?

  11. Nigel Scullion is a slimy grub:

    The federal minister for Indigenous affairs should be sacked from cabinet and sent packing for his allocation of Indigenous funds to non-Indigenous interests, but his exploits are far from an isolated incident when it comes to the standard of administration of any money earmarked for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.

    Over the past fortnight, it has been revealed that Nigel Scullion has awarded almost $500,000 of funds intended to alleviate Indigenous disadvantage via the government’s Indigenous Advancement Strategy (IAS) to non-Indigenous groups including NT amateur fishermen’s association (AFANT), the NT seafood council, and the NT cattlemen’s association (NTCA). It is up to Scullion’s discretion as to where to allocate funds, and these allocations meet those criteria, but they certainly don’t pass the pub test in terms of integrity.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/13/its-time-to-take-back-control-from-the-actual-aboriginal-industry-elites

  12. With other elders, Tabagee confronted the complexities of the community’s relationship with the external world of government and politics. They were soon embroiled in a conflict between Aboriginal and European law. In 1978 an American company, Amax Oil and Gas Inc., sought a licence to drill for oil at Pea Hill (Umpampurra), a sacred site of supreme importance for the Yungngora people. The protracted dispute between the community and the combined forces of the mining company and the State government of Sir Charles Court, brought Noonkanbah nationwide publicity. Tabagee took a prominent role in the community’s defence of Yungngora country. He spoke at meetings, gave evidence in court, and travelled to Perth to enlist the support of politicians, unions, and church groups. In August 1980, however, the State government sent a convoy of trucks and drilling equipment, accompanied by a sizeable police contingent, to break the blockade established by the community and its supporters. In the resulting affray, he was one of fifty-five people arrested; all were released without charge. Drilling proceeded, but no oil was found. Undeterred, Tabagee continued to advocate for the recognition of Aboriginal law and culture. He became an active participant in the affairs of the Kimberley Land Council, a regional community organisation set up in 1978 to lobby for land rights.

    http://ia.anu.edu.au/biography/tabagee-nipper-buck-18483

    The Noonkanbah dispute was also significant in WA Labor history and brought the TLC, led by Peter Cook, later a minister in the Hawke Government, to give direct support to the Yungngora people.

    The underlying issues are still alive in WA.

  13. Simon² Katich® says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 5:43 pm
    Wasnt there deep division in the Kimberley Land Council wrt James Price Point?

    I’m not sure, SK. I was in poor health at that time and not able to take part in anything to do with James Price Point, though I’ve been there a coupe of times since. I’m good friends with someone who was an active voice there. I’ll ask her next time I see her.

  14. Thanks briefly. I would appreciate it.

    I remember only a little. And some of that might be corrupted memory. Something about a firebrand KLC leader who could see the value in dealing with the government on the gas hub. There were significant concessions offered. But another group disputed the KLCs right to negotiate and didnt want to give up the land.

    The Broome green set were involved too.

  15. From GetUp

    Tony Abbott doesn’t represent our community. He says climate change “does more good than harm”, and wants to keep kids in detention on Nauru. He voted against Marriage Equality in the Parliament – when 75% of his electorate voted YES!

    For the first time in decades, Tony Abbott could be at risk of losing his seat. And all over our community – and beyond – people are coming together to take him on.

    Join us at the first big community meeting to find out how you can be part of the movement to take on Tony Abbott.

    WHEN

    November 20, 2018 at 6pm – 8pm
    WHERE

    Manly Seniors Centre
    275 Pittwater Rd
    Manly, NSW 2095
    Australia

    CONTACT

    Carly Sare · carly@getup(dot)org(dot)au

  16. Ven “Do you want Democrats to loose again in 2020? Looks like it. You did not seem to learn from Trump victory in 2016. Clinton was one of main reasons why democrats Lost. She had the second highest percentage in unpopularity for a US presidential candidate next only to Trump”

    didnt take much notice of what i actually said did you? Clinton *WON* the popular vote. Or to put it more plainly, more American voters wanted Clinton as President than Trump. Its only the jerrimander that robbed her. With a bit of finessing vis which jerrimander states to focus their attention on, there is no reason at all to say the dems would lose 2020 under Clinton. Especially without any more 11th hour Comey-esque bombshells.

    Yes another candidate might win too, and might win more convincingly, but theres no reason to think Clonton would lose, hence my point that she wouldnt be a bad choice for the dems.

  17. So, given the attention on the bumbling Borrison, what is the view of Melbournians of not Borrison paying his respects in Bourke Street because that is a mark of respect but presuming to then make the comment on Melbourne and the deceased?

    What connection does Borrison have with Melbourne, or Victoria?

    It seems to me that Borrison (and the repulsive Guy) are in this for political milage.

  18. Got an invite in snail mail from my local MP Trent Zimmerman to the North Sydney Seniors Expo, in spite of my not being senior, just old.

    The Expo will be opened by a no doubt resplendent Julie Bishop, who made a special trip from the other side of the continent to open this event, plus maybe some fridge doors. The event will be held at the Norths Leagues Club in the aptly named Abbott Road, Cammeray.

    The invite contains a survey which were I to fill out and return (which I won’t – don’t want to get into the Liberal database) would probably mean no more invitations. It lists 14 issues from which I am invited to nominate four that concern me. Mostly Liberal talking points turned into motherhood statements, although oddly enough, they don’t include climate change.

  19. ItzaDream says:
    Tuesday, November 13, 2018 at 6:00 pm
    From GetUp

    Tony Abbott doesn’t represent our community.

    If a plausible candidate comes forward they will be over-run with support, no doubt at all. If I have a spare few days I’ll come door-knock for them…make calls from here in the West too.

  20. Observer @ #1083 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:01 pm

    So, given the attention on the bumbling Borrison, what is the view of Melbournians of not Borrison paying his respects in Bourke Street because that is a mark of respect but presuming to then make the comment on Melbourne and the deceased?

    What connection does Borrison have with Melbourne, or Victoria?

    It seems to me that Borrison (and the repulsive Guy) are in this for political milage.

    Well to be fair, he is PM of Australia and last time I looked Victoria was still a part of the Commonwealth.

  21. Dana McCauley

    The ABC has backflipped to allow @sallymcmanus to address union members at the public broadcaster’s Ultimo HQ tomorrow. The ACTU Secretary will talk to ABC journos + admin staff about the union movement’s #ChangeTheRules campaign to rewrite IR laws

    University research, the independence of the ABC, the incompetence of the Coalition and their attempts to strangle Australian freedoms, are all combining in a shitstorm over Morrison’s head.

  22. GG

    This was a Melbourne thing, partly in praise of the cultural contribution of European migrants. Morrison’s attitudes to “invaders and terrorists” are not appropriate.

  23. Richard the Black Wiggle makes a statement…

    Federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale also calls for NSW MP Jeremy Buckingham to quit.
    ‘I have communicated that to Jeremy today on behalf of the federal party room.’ #auspol #nswpol

  24. frednk @ #1067 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 5:19 pm

    The Bourke street guy hadn’t been in any church for a decade. What I don’t understand is why Morrison has to pick on someone elses god; why wasn’t his god up to the task?

    The man who murdered 6 people by driving recklessly through the streets of Melbourne claimed God gave him permission to kill people. He was convicted today.

  25. Player One

    PB serves to provide a counter-argument to two widely-held notions …

    1. That age brings wisdom and maturity
    2. That youth brings open-mindedness and tolerance

    Agree. And what’s interesting is how easily we all guess the years lived.

  26. It seems to me that Borrison (and the repulsive Guy) are in this for political mileage.

    I know that Scott Morrison hasn’t got much time before the federal election to make an impression on the electorate and he needs to make every post a winner, but today’s effort of a lightning fast trip to Pellegrinis in Melbourne with the odious Matthew Guy, just smacked of cynical opportunism.

  27. Some more examples in the regular Morrison Cockup routine:

    34. Health Records Crash Cockup.
    35. The Bus/Plane Double Act Cockup
    36. The Serial Piss Up Cockup
    37. Forcing Newstart Recipients to Pick Fruit Kite Flying Cockup.
    38. Failed Grandstanding Power Price Cut Cockup.
    39. Adani Water Trigger Cockup.
    40. Food Bank Backflip Cockup.

  28. sprocket_ @ #1090 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    Richard the Black Wiggle makes a statement…

    Federal Greens leader Richard Di Natale also calls for NSW MP Jeremy Buckingham to quit.
    ‘I have communicated that to Jeremy today on behalf of the federal party room.’ #auspol #nswpol

    Took him a while and an example of what was the correct thing to do provided by NSW Labor leader, Michael Daley.

  29. lizzie @ #1089 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    GG

    This was a Melbourne thing, partly in praise of the cultural contribution of European migrants. Morrison’s attitudes to “invaders and terrorists” are not appropriate.

    lizzie @ #1089 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:09 pm

    GG

    This was a Melbourne thing, partly in praise of the cultural contribution of European migrants. Morrison’s attitudes to “invaders and terrorists” are not appropriate.

    Morrison and Guy were clearly trying to use this tragedy for political purposes. They should be condemned. They are trying to divide our community and our nation. They are a disgrace.

    I want them gone with a passion.

  30. Boerwar @ #1095 Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 – 6:13 pm

    Some more examples in the regular Morrison Cockup routine:

    34. Health Records Crash Cockup.
    35. The Bus/Plane Double Act Cockup
    36. The Serial Piss Up Cockup
    37. Forcing Newstart Recipients to Pick Fruit Kite Flying Cockup.
    38. Failed Grandstanding Power Price Cut Cockup.
    39. Adani Water Trigger Cockup.
    40. Food Bank Backflip Cockup.

    You should publish this as a novella.

  31. The Bourke Street Political Panto reminds me of the Strawberry Needle Panto.

    If everyone shut up about it in the first place there would have been no further strawberry cock ups. Instead, we had over a hundred incidents of copycat contamination, etc, etc, etc.

    In other words the public shitfight about how Australia’s muslims are to blame, the political duo visiting for a cup of coffee, Morrison going full bore pentecostal on the muslims, a wreath-laying as a political grandstanding event and, FMD, a state funeral for the victime are ALL signals to wannabe stray dickheads: ‘I, too, can be infamous.’

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