BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. What’s happening in Melbourne now will occur Australia-wide if Shorten was to win the next election – don’t risk it. Shorten is as left wing as Dan Andrews. Only PM Morrison can be trusted on national security and being tough on crime. Don’t let the rest of Australia turn into Labor’s lawless Victoria. Vote for PM Morrison in 2019.

  2. Speaking if Guy Rundle, who I quoted above w.r.t ScoMoFo’s Pentecostal religion, I think quite a few of us here would be what Guy classes as “creative knowledge workers”, or something along those lines.

    So, I suspect I am not the only person waiting to hear the results of this year’s Australian Research Council Discovery Project and other sundry ARC awards (DECRAs and FFs for those playing at home).

    It is now getting very late in the year, and we have been wondering why it is so late. Yesterday I heard from a credible source that we may not hear the funding outcomes for a few more weeks. I have been trying to get corroboration, and by today have more information, although it is not good. I will post below the summation of what I have discovered for interested parties.

  3. Some programmer ought to inject a bit of humour into the Breebot.
    But perhaps not the same programmer who injected irony into the Rexbot and nuance into the Nicholasbot.

  4. Bree @ #402 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    What’s happening in Melbourne now will occur Australia-wide if Shorten was to win the next election – don’t risk it. Shorten is as left wing as Dan Andrews. Only PM Morrison can be trusted on national security and being tough on crime. Don’t let the rest of Australia turn into Labor’s lawless Victoria. Vote for PM Morrison in 2019.

    Wayne has a lot of personalities. 🙂

  5. From @ARC_tracker on twitter:

    Email from follower’s uni:

    “As you may be aware ARC have indicated that announcements for this year grants have been delayed whilst consideration is given to ‘National Interest Tests’ being required for funded grants. …”

    “… It is not clear when ARC will announce this year’s outcomes, but it may be not be for several more weeks. At various levels, advocacy is being applied to resolve this impasse quickly, but right now it is not clear when outcomes will be known.”

    “…This may well affect decisions regarding contract extensions for ARC-funded researchers. It is possible that academics might need to consider short term extensions to contracts in these circumstances until announcements are made. …”

    “… Following on from this, ARC have delayed the opening for their DP and Discovery Indigenous 2020 rounds. It is not inconceivable that the deadline for applications is pushed back from late February into March or beyond. …”

    “… As such, please consider trying to get most of the hard work on your Discovery Grant done over the summer (before Christmas even!), and long before [teaching next year] rolls around. … for many, writing grants in teaching periods might be very challenging.”

    The reply of one wag wag was “….better still – write grants during Christmas … when your competitors will be lazily not working and attending to their family units.”

  6. To Bree’s point. Has it been ascertained yet whether the Bourke Street Crasher was a man of Middle Eastern origin, South Sudanese Muslim origin, or just a ‘fair dinkum’ Aussie bloke but maybe with some mental health issues? As that will be the determining factor going forward for the Liberal Party in Victoria in the run-up to the State Election. Just sayin’. Won’t it Bree? 🙂

  7. I was told this pm that the Times Higher Education Supplement has taken an interest, and after careful consideration affected parties (i.e. people who do not know if they can pay the rent in January) have agreed to publicising the problem and actually asking the Oz Govt:

    “What the bloody heel do you think you are doing!!”

    will help researchers.

    Update are now coming in –
    I will post these.

  8. Bree @ #402 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    What’s happening in Melbourne now will occur Australia-wide if Shorten was to win the next election – don’t risk it. Shorten is as left wing as Dan Andrews. Only PM Morrison can be trusted on national security and being tough on crime. Don’t let the rest of Australia turn into Labor’s lawless Victoria. Vote for PM Morrison in 2019.

    Wow. I didn’t think anyone could outdo DTT today … but you win hands down!

  9. LOL

    “The resignation of the Australian Digital Health Agency’s director of privacy, Nicole Hunt, last month comes at a crucial time for the agency, which has faced criticism over its security and privacy policies, as it prepares to automatically enrol all Australians into having the online digital health file unless they opt out by November 15.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/my-health-record-s-privacy-chief-quits-amid-claims-agency-not-listening-20181107-p50elu.html

  10. Boerwar @ #404 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 6:30 pm

    I had cause to sleep in RAAF Tindal housing back in the seventies.

    They were a shocker then.

    Come now. The pictures shown on the ABC web site look like 5 Star quality to me.

    I was at RAAF Darwin in 1957 and the huts for the troops were WW2 stock. They were alright (not) – lots better than camping out.
    A couple of years later a trip to Katherine where the highlight was examining the bullet holes in the police Station.

    Those were the days my friend …♫♪ we thought they’d never end ♫♪

  11. @C@t

    News.com.au are reporting that the man was (according to an onlooker, none of this confirmed officially) was wearing “Islamic garb and of African appearance”. However, police have not drawn any link to terrorism at this time.

    Also though, note that most Sth Sudanese (including the vast majority of those Sudanese in Melbourne) are Christian or adherents of traditional religion. This is part of why they wanted to break away from the Muslim-majority north.

    Whatever the outcome, I am sure the Murdoch papers will be desperate to play this for Matt Guy’s gain.

  12. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:36 pm
    From @ARC_tracker on twitter:
    Email from follower’s uni:
    “As you may be aware ARC have indicated that announcements for this year grants have been delayed whilst consideration is given to ‘National Interest Tests’ being required for funded grants. …”
    ________________________________
    I recall sitting down with a friend a few years ago trying to find some way of getting his philosophical research project to fit under the national research priority area ‘safeguarding Australia’ criterion. It was fun trying but no luck.

  13. “No known link to terrorism at this stage, but we are keeping an open mind,” Victoria Police spokesperson Dave Cope told media at the scene.

  14. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/09/bludgertrack-54-2-45-8-labor/comment-page-8/#comment-2998807

    Sitting legislators in Australia/most of the USA/most of the world are not under-paid, that is not the issue preventing Orcasio-Cortez from establishing a Washington residence, so it is not an argument for higher pay for sitting legislators. The main issue is that non-incumbent candidates are not paid at all and just like in the bad old days of unpaid legislators, it makes it much harder for working class working people to run for office compared to wealthier people. The very long lame duck period, the primary system and very long campaign length make it much worse in the USA compared to many other places.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/24/18009856/working-class-income-inequality-randy-bryce-alexandria-ocasio-cortez

    Paying major candidates for office during their campaign, even the minimum wage, would make thing much fairer than hiking sitting legislators wages. Any party or independent that got over 20% of the vote in a seat should be able to have their candidate paid during the campaign at the the next election and other candidates with over say 10% of the vote in signatures as well, of course it should they should be paid by the hour (up to a cap) and have to fill in a log book.

    Paying legislators too much makes them too rich and too less likely to be concerned be lower socio-economic people`s economic struggles (in a way favourable to the lower economic people). Electorate residence requirements for candidates and sitting legislators is also a good idea, so they have an experience closer to that of the people they represent.

  15. Melbourne University are saying that they have contacted the ARC, and been told ” There is no anticipated release date of outcomes at this time”

  16. I thought of posting a comment wondering when Guy/Dutton/Morrison would try to make political capital out of the Bourke Street incident. Then I decided not to because such a comment would be regarded as very tacky at this time.

    Now Bree does just that. If Bree represents the L/NP mindset, then they are truly living in the gutter.

  17. Bree says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:29 pm
    What’s happening in Melbourne now will occur Australia-wide if Shorten was to win the next election – don’t risk it. Shorten is as left wing as Dan Andrews. Only PM Morrison can be trusted on national security and being tough on crime. Don’t let the rest of Australia turn into Labor’s lawless Victoria. Vote for PM Morrison in 2019.

    That kind of stuff might have worked once Bree. But it’s past its use by date now. The Australian people have woken up to it. Your boys are going down, BIG TIME.

  18. KJ

    You probably made acquaintance with the great grandaddies of the giant cockroaches we encountered out at Tindal.

    I have to admit to a certain amount of cowardice here… I strictly avoided going mano-a-mano with them…

  19. Didn’t Muir from the Motoring Enthusiasts Party have the same problem that he didn’t get paid until July 1 but was expected to be in Canberra before that?

  20. poroti
    says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:53 pm
    Even if you do not pay peanuts you still get monkeys
    .
    At $528,000 a year, Turnbull’s pay is highest of any leader in OECD
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/at-528-000-a-year-turnbull-s-pay-is-highest-of-any-leader-in-oecd-20180526-p4zhp5.html
    ___________________________________
    Turnbull has many faults but he does have a bit of class:

    Mr Turnbull donates the equivalent of his full $528,000 annual salary to charity.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5884941/Prime-Minister-Malcolm-Turnbull-donates-cent-528-000-salary-charity.html

  21. The most important thing in all this is that the Fed Govt is talking about applying a retrospective “National Interest” test to successful ARC research grants that were submitted in Feb 2018.

    We wrote our grants in good faith, trying to follow the rules, but it appears that the goalposts have changed, and that there will be government interference that will overrule the expert Australian Research Council recommendations about what research should be funded.

    “Jewish Physics” anyone (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Physik)?

  22. Zoidlord @ #414 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 6:42 pm

    LOL

    “The resignation of the Australian Digital Health Agency’s director of privacy, Nicole Hunt, last month comes at a crucial time for the agency, which has faced criticism over its security and privacy policies, as it prepares to automatically enrol all Australians into having the online digital health file unless they opt out by November 15.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/technology/my-health-record-s-privacy-chief-quits-amid-claims-agency-not-listening-20181107-p50elu.html

    Still time to opt out, peeps! Don’t let these incompetent fools put all your medical records online forever!

  23. Bree @6:29PM. It’s what the Right do. Their policies are poison so that can’t talk about them. Instead they cultivate fear and division. And how many nasty dictators justify their actions on the basis of ‘national security’, or even plain old ‘law and order’.

    I can’t find much information about the attacker. We can be thankful he apparently didn’t have a gun.

    And in the smoke-filled rooms of Liberal HQ, they’re praying the perp’s name is Abdullah bin something.

  24. Boerwar (AnonBlock)
    Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 6:53 pm
    Comment #425

    I’m not sure if this critter is your friend. I most remember that the citizens of Katherine were proud of the High Level Bridge.


    It’s off to watch TV for me. Bed and sleep. 📺🛌💤
    Including a little later my one eye drop in right eye – glaucoma. 💉

  25. Zoidlord @ 6.42pm

    I just heard another ad for “My Health Record” that says “you can choose who sees it”. That’s an outright lie, as a court can order that it be accessed by an agency you haven’t chosen.

    It’s the ongoing mendacity surrounding the entire project which led me to opt out some months ago. As it happens, I was in a position to see some of the bureaucratic politics which surrounded the development of the Australia Card project back in 1986-7. The driving agency was the Health Insurance Commission, but they started by hawking the project all around Canberra, trying to highlight all the potential benefits for other agencies – an approach which worked in the short term, but led to the proposal’s downfall in the longer term.

    I would bet good money that something similar was done for the My Health Record project. It’s never been clearly explained why the original legislation made it so easy for private data to be widely shared throughout the bureaucracy. Legislative provisions of that type don’t just appear out of thin air: that data sharing was plainly an integral element of the original design, not some sort of oversight, or private initiative on the part of the Office of Parliamentary Counsel.

    This project has been tainted by deceit from the outset.

  26. poroti says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:59 pm

    nath

    Check out the ‘charity’ who got their paws on it.
    ___________________
    Oh Yes, I see now. HAHA. It could be dodgy.

    But then again, the papers made out the Shane Warne Foundation was somehow dodgy but it was just that their last few years they couldn’t raise enough to well cover their costs.

    But the point you were making is valid. I wouldn’t have thought you’d do it that way. Just cut a cheque to the Childrens hospital and be done with it.

  27. nath @ #427 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 6:55 pm

    poroti
    says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:53 pm
    Even if you do not pay peanuts you still get monkeys
    .
    At $528,000 a year, Turnbull’s pay is highest of any leader in OECD
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/at-528-000-a-year-turnbull-s-pay-is-highest-of-any-leader-in-oecd-20180526-p4zhp5.html
    ___________________________________
    Turnbull has many faults but he does have a bit of class:

    Mr Turnbull donates the equivalent of his full $528,000 annual salary to charity.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5884941/Prime-Minister-Malcolm-Turnbull-donates-cent-528-000-salary-charity.html

    Bollocks. It wasn’t a charity, in particular, it was a charitable foundation run by the Turnbull family and the donation was thus, tax deductible. Turnbull does nothing for no one, unless there’s a buck in it for him.

  28. Nath – you really are a total moron. Turnbull “donated” his salary to his own charity as a tax dodge. The charity only has to spend 5% a year on charitable purposes and can pretty much blow the rest on whatever it likes (e.g donate money to the liberal party or rent a property leased from one of his dodgy companies). How an Australia PM got away with such a blatant scam is beyond me.

  29. Amazing, isn’t it, how nath is more than prepared to believe the best of a Liberal PM, but if Bill Shorten had done what Malcolm Turnbull did with his salary, ol’ nath would have been digging for the sinister motive.

  30. So the scum bag Liberal MP in his press release refers to the lady he has caused such distress to as “the journalist”, twice

    “the journalist”

    And whilst you should never judge a person by their looks, look at the scum bag Liberal MP

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