BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. Scott Morrison prayed and cried ‘on his knees’ for asylum seekers???

    Praying that someone, somewhere, may have the power to do something to help these poor souls and hear his cry?

  2. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 5:12 pm
    It’s abhorrent what Liberal and Labor have done to the refugees and asylum seekers detained in the torture camps and what makes it even worse is that Liberal and Labor show no contrition and take no responsibility … just point their fingers at others.

    Yes, it’s all your fault Rex. You have questions to answer.

  3. Prof. Higgins says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 5:18 pm

    PhoenixRed,
    ‘High Noon’ has significant historical importance. At the outset, it was hated by John Wayne and his fellow promoters of Hollywood’s blacklist in the McCarthy era, about which the theme of the film appears to reflect.

    ************************************************************************

    Although John Wayne often complained that the film was “un-American”, when he collected Gary Cooper’s Best Actor Oscar on his behalf at the The 25th Annual Academy Awards (1953) he complained that he wasn’t offered the part himself, so he could have made it more like one of his own westerns. He later teamed up with Director Howard Hawks to make Rio Bravo (1959) as a response.

    John Wayne strongly disliked this movie because he knew it was an allegory for blacklisting, which he and his friend Ward Bond had strongly and actively supported. Twenty years later he was still criticizing it, in his controversial May 1971 interview with Playboy Magazine. Inventing a scene that was never in the movie, he claimed that Gary Cooper had thrown his Marshal’s badge to the ground and stepped on it. He also stated he would never regret having driven blacklisted screenwriter Carl Foreman out of Hollywood.

    Gregory Peck, an activist liberal Democrat who strongly opposed blacklisting, later said that turning down this film was the biggest regret of his career, although he modestly added that he didn’t think he could have played the lead character as well as Gary Cooper did.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0044706/trivia?ref_=tt_trv_trv

  4. I’m gloating about the Democrat’s big win. I can’t help it if certain Trump boosters want to practice their gaslighting with reams of nonsense.

  5. I’d get you a long list of things Labor has said in the last 6 or so years since they were in office and paste them for you rex, if I thought your reading comprehension and integrity was somewhere higher than Sarah Huckabee Sanders.

  6. Paramedics have assessed three people at the scene. One person has been taken to hospital with a neck injury. They are in a suspected critical condition.

    Ambulance Vic via The Guardian.
    I suspect this will be dominating the airwaves for a while.

  7. Fulvio
    That would be another election. See “the West Wing” – one of the later series where Sam Seaborn quits the White House to run in an election in California, because he promised the widow that he would.

  8. “I’m gloating about the Democrat’s big win. I can’t help it if certain Trump boosters want to practice their gaslighting with reams of nonsense.”

    Me too it was a massive triumph over a system rigged massively against them, and a wall of criminality from Trump down through the enemies of freedom who support him.

    I fear though the Dems will fail to take up the fight. Freedom and justice is not going to prevail if they take a business as usual approach, they have to fight like their republic depends on it, because it does, and they are now a dodgy AG and three cracked ribs closer to leaving democracy. I’d give them less than 4 in 7 chances of winning, but they 100% lose, possibly before 2020, if they don’t fight like hell.

    If they think there is any chance of the two term, term limit applying to Trump by 2024 they have rocks in their head.

  9. …apparently it varies from State to State – if we’re going to use ‘West Wing’ as a guide, in another episode they encounter a man who is serving out his dead wife’s term.

  10. Interesting.

    If the dead man is not a Senator (if an election for his seat is called the seat becomes vacant and if he is elected dead, he cannot take up the seat) there is no party which can claim to hold the vacant Senate seat and therefore appoint the incumbent’s successor.

    Anyway, I expect the US electoral system is used to dealing with dead politicians, and has an answer.

  11. Channel 10 news at 5 started with a piece on Foley – as expected. Then it did a very critical piece on Berejiklian for not doing anything to discipline Elliott for using parliamentary privilege to drag the victim into the limelight. NSW Labor is obviously doing the PR to remove the party from association with Foley and moving to a swift and bloodless change in leadership.

    One wonders whether NSW Labor is secretly happy to be rid of Foley in a such a relatively painless manner.

  12. Fulvio Sammut @ #355 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 4:33 pm

    So, if a dead man is elected to the US Senate, does his losing opponent take up his seat, or is there another election?

    Sorry, I can’t remember where I read or heard this, but I think in Az the party he belonged to (Republicans?) get to pick his successor. It doesn’t make sense to me. He died before the election but there’s a law that says his name had to stay on the ballot. Something like that. The people voting for him KNEW he was dead.

  13. Last night’s TV ratings:Credlin 35,000PM Live 66,000Turnbull on QandA 666,000— Paula Matthewson (@Drag0nista) November 9, 2018

    I was one of those 666,000 getting bored out of my brain.

  14. “Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Retweeted Shane Goldmacher
    There are many little ways in which our electoral system isn’t even designed (nor prepared) for working-class people to lead.

    This is one of them (don’t worry btw – we’re working it out!)”

    I might be the only one in Australia but I’ve long argued that politicians should be better paid, and that we should look after them better after (even if only to ensure clowns like Abbott leave faster) and that it would be a great investment. That well know right wing wealthy candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can’t even afford to rent an apartment in Washington until they start paying her for her term, which doesn’t start til January.

    Some seem to see elected politicians, by definition, to be part of the elite system they hate, and opposed all perks, and want to see them all on average weekly earnings, not realising this is exactly what the wealthy really want.

    We can’t expect to have a great democracy when we do not even value the servants of democracy. It is like expecting a healthy and strong political culture where we hate politics and describe it entirely in negative terms.

    Own goal / nose in spite of face stupidity.

  15. Oh dear!

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/abc-says-claims-its-reporter-leaked-groping-allegations-are-defamatory-20181109-p50f4d.html

    “ABC journalist Sean Nicholls has described a claim made in The Australian newspaper that he provided information to a Liberal Party minister about an allegation the NSW Labor leader had groped a fellow journalist at a function as false and defamatory.”

    “A spokeswoman for the ABC said the organisation had asked The Australian for an apology and correction but had not had a response at the time of writing on Friday afternoon. Asked if the ABC would pursue legal action she declined to comment.”

  16. In better news from Melbourne:

    Surgery to separate formerly conjoined 14-month-old twins Nima and Dawa Pelden at Melbourne’s Royal Children’s Hospital has been a success.

    The surgery started about 8:30am (AEDT) and was carried out by four surgeons and a team of about 18 people.

    The girls, who come from Bhutan, were joined from the lower chest to just above the pelvis and shared a liver.

    The complex operation took about six hours.

    Lead paediatric surgeon Joe Crameri said the operation was shorter than expected and the twins were “doing very well”.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-09/conjoined-twins-nima-dawa-successful-separation-surgery/10482752

  17. Diogenes says:

    Not many people survive attacking the Victorian police with a knife

    A while back being armed seemed an ‘optional extra’ when it came to being gunned down by the Vic’s Plod.

  18. Ven @ #317 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 4:41 pm

    Sprocket@1:00pm
    Michael Daley: “If I am leader of the Labor party I do not want Luke Foley sitting in my ranks”

    C@tmomma, Zoomster, Confessions, Puffytmd and Victoria
    What do think about what Daley said?

    For mine, I posted yesterday that I always thought Michael Daley was the safer bet as Opposition Leader of the ALP in NSW. However, after the Obeid/Tripodi years screwed the pooch for the NSW Right the Left said you better give the leadership to one of ours, it’s out turn! So, as Luke Foley was the Assistant General Secretary, a position reserved for the leader of the NSW Left of the ALP, he got the gig.

    I can only recount my own personal experience with Luke Foley. That is, he is an arrogant, ambitious prig. 😉

    For example, last year at the NSW ALP Xmas Party, I was sitting in the atrium of Trades Hall with a few friends, when Foley appeared. He didn’t even acknowledge my presence, just looked straight through me, I guess I wasn’t attractive enough any more, and began a conversation with the guy who is our local candidate. He made me feel worse than a useful idiot. He made me feel useless and insignificant in his scheme of things.

    This is in absolute contrast to Bill Shorten, the federal leader, who has an enormously packed schedule and timetable to keep to, but he found the time to talk to every single person who wanted to say something to him when he came to visit our neck of the woods.

    As people seem to be saying, they are glad to see the backside of Luke Foley. I can only agree with them.

  19. BK

    Is this the shit that our Prime Minister believes and stands by?
    http://www.religionfacts.com/pentecostalism/beliefs

    Afraid so. I have (thankfully ex-) in-laws try and convert me to the cause.

    In some ways it was hilarious – all the VCRs about how playing your records backwards gave the devil’s messages – but now that they have so much influence in so many places in the world, Brazil being the latest victim, it suddenly does not seem so funny.

    I guess this is how Hitler got his start.

    There is a big Hillsong Church around the corner from me, and while they try to sugar coat their message, they support aligned churches in Africa, who are advocating the death penalty for homosexuals. They actually have “guest preacher” exchanges with these churches.

    Morrison may just be being cynical and using them, but I think he believes the shit, and Guy Rundle thinks the same way I do:

    A couple of weeks back, in the Scott Morrison honeymoon period, your correspondent argued that our new PM’s religiosity, as an enthusiastic evangelical Christian, was not of the manner of Tony Abbott’s apocalyptic Catholicism, but of the suburban manner in which happy-clappydom is taken up these days: ……. What you need is a god who will answer your prayer to find a Mr Muffler that’s open on a Sunday arvo.

    But as the evidence rolls in, I’m wondering if I was mistaken. Is ScoMo the other type of evangelical*, the true believer, who got the faith young and hard, and who sees it as the central organising principle of his life? In that case, for Scomo, the tragicomedy of politics is just the business of the fallen world, through which one moves, looking for opportunities to witness. ScoMo’s assertion that he would pray for rain to end the drought, and a glimpse of him praying, has strengthened the sense that this is a bid deal for him.

    But what really caught my eye was his remarks on the night of the prime minister’s awards for science ceremony last week…..

    “I have no doubt that as you do that, you think it might be there, you suspect it might be. You turn it into a theory, then you follow the rulebook, but it all begins with something you believe. Something you think is possible. And if you look at all the great minds over time, those in Australia, those down through the generations around the world, that is that I think has always really encaptured, the great magic of science, if you like. It starts with belief, it starts with passion.”

    Ah, the magic of science, and the search for a hidden presence. This is an approach to science that evangelism has taken up in recent decades …..

    In the US, culture war evangelicals jumped on [such] ideas, at a time when they were transitioning from literal “creationism” to “intelligent design” — the (false) idea that Darwinian blind evolution could not explain living complexity — to suggest that science made no sense without a prior animating idea. Science, in this conception, is one of God’s ways of letting us find Him.

    ScoMo found a way to smuggle a homily on belief into the heart of a talk about its very opposite. That is the mark of a master proselytiser. Morrison is not burdened with Abbott’s desire to restore old orders, his ghastly mitteleuropean restaurant of a theology — all candelabras and goulash and lost holy empires. Morrison simply wants to collect souls in the present world, ahead of the judgement to come.

    [Perhaps] we are being led by a man who regards stewardship of the nation as, in the final analysis, nothing more than an opportunity to gather us into God.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/10/24/scott-morrison-religion-politics/

  20. This is in absolute contrast to Bill Shorten, the federal leader, who has an enormously packed schedule and timetable to keep to, but he found the time to talk to every single person who wanted to say something to him when he came to visit our neck of the woods.
    __________________________
    Well Shorten would have to be about, I don’t know, 10 times smarter than Foley, at least. Here’s a tip though. Don’t expect any little chats once he becomes PM!

  21. WeWantPaul @ #373 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 5:57 pm

    We can’t expect to have a great democracy when we do not even value the servants of democracy. It is like expecting a healthy and strong political culture where we hate politics and describe it entirely in negative terms.

    All political salaries should be based on the median wage, and adjusted every quarter. However (as you point out) accommodation and transport can be crippling for a politician, as they can for any other type of FIFO worker. So they should also get whatever is the median living-away-from-home and travel allowances for FIFO workers.

    This would give them some incentive to actually work to increase these things.

  22. Gosh, the ABC Melbourne ‘coverage’ of the Bourke St incident is nauseating.

    They are almost salivating at what is going on.

    Disgraceful

  23. “I can only recount my own personal experience with Luke Foley. That is, he is an arrogant, ambitious prig.”

    Part of #doingbetter is not letting these guys into positions of importance in the first place. Their caucus and their members just need to stop this kind of person taking the first step. I realise of course that all the processes and power channels are currently the exact opposite and absolute scum have a better chance (in both parties) than a good person.

    I’ve said for a long long time and I’m not going to be here reading so you can have a Rudd-Gillard war if you want, but Labor’s error if Rudd was 1/2 as bad as everyone seems to agree he was, then the error wasn’t getting rid of him it was putting someone that bad in charge in the first place. They shouldn’t even be getting preselection.

  24. Diogenes
    says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:11 pm
    poroti
    Very true. There was a lot of “death by cop”.
    _____________________________
    That period was a long time ago now. During the 80s and 90s there were quite a few police killed by underworld players and the police were not very patient. Things have been a lot different since 1999 when Bracks took over.

  25. Sharma as a career diplomat who has worked for many years in Israel would know the views of other countries and in particular counties with a large Muslim populations.

    He would be well aware that Indonesia has written into its constitution a mandate to support Palestine and making that announcement would put Australia’s diplomatic relations at risk.

    Morrison and Sharma have put self-interests above the security of the country for no possible gain.

  26. Dio

    Great effort with the conjoined twins. Neither need ICU

    What a lovely piece of news on a day that has been depressing news all the way for me.

  27. Douglas and Milko
    says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 6:14 pm
    Dio
    Great effort with the conjoined twins. Neither need ICU
    What a lovely piece of news on a day that has been depressing news all the way for me.
    _________________________________
    Yes I agree. As someone whose life was recently saved by these people, not only doctors but the incredible nurses are the best of us. The shifts they work would kill an ordinary person.

  28. So what has our envoy to the ‘natives’ Tony ‘David Livingstone’ Abbott , been up to lately?

    Aging RAAF base houses to be moved to Borroloola by Indigenous affairs envoy Tony Abbott

    ………some of which may already be over forty years old.

    The NT News understands that the houses may only be liveable for two to five years and the NT Government provided feedback that they were not a suitable option.

    The secretive process that the federal indigenous affairs envoy and …

    https://outline.com/2Mvsar

  29. C@t

    As people seem to be saying, they are glad to see the backside of Luke Foley. I can only agree with them.

    Even my mother said this today, and she will not normally tolerate any criticism of the Labor party. She is pretty black and white, whereas I am all shades of grey, so we do usually clash a bit.

  30. Gosh, the ABC Melbourne ‘coverage’ of the Bourke St incident is nauseating.

    Isn’t it. And all the on lookers filming everything on their phones.

  31. So according to Costello’s 9, the Liberals have introduced a National Star to the Victorian campaign

    The Divisive Dwarf

    I thought they assessed he was a negative in Wentworth – and put him back in his casket turning to Menzies instead

    And the right wing shock jock (so Melbourne’s Jones and from the same stable), Mitchell, is the go to analysis on 9

    Next thing can we expect Hawke (who actually held a Victorian seat when pm) to be wheeled out by Labor to counter the Sydney resident the Liberals have flown in?

    On a positive the operation on the 2 babies is uplifting

    On a negative, on a day our irresponsible media have the individual who caused the mayhem he did in Melbourne on their front pages, we have another incident attacking people going about their business in the CBD

    The media link the 2 events

    I was aware once upon a time that suicides on rail tracks were never reported because of the fear of copy cat

    You just never know – and you defer on the side of caution

    And you never judge others by self

  32. Witness Markel told ABC Local Radio in Melbourne:

    “A lot of bystanders [were] actually just screaming at the police officers, because the police officers were trying to take the knife off him and arrest him but bystanders were yelling out ‘just shoot him, just shoot him’.”

    ____________________________________
    I am assuming the car had a bomb that somehow misfired and just took the car up in flames.

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