BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. Prof
    There hasn’t been any gloating from PBers about the election and if anyone knows how to gloat about a political outcome, it’s a PB. 😀

  2. Mavis Smith says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 3:52 pm

    phoenixRED:

    Powerfull commentary by CNN’s Don Lemon, but it’ll fall on deaf ears.

    ************************************************************

    Whenever another one of these US mass shootings occurs I always think of playwright Oscar Wilde and his disappointed view of America : one of his many quotes about America

    “America is the only country that went from barbarism to decadence without civilisation in between.”

  3. Poroti – the career of John Norton is wonderfully well told in Cyril Pearl’s Wild Men of Sydney. One of my most treasured books.

  4. Mavis
    “Morrison announces that he’s praying for the children still on Nauru – that’s bound to work.”

    Is ScumMo praying that he listens to his own prayers? Is he PM or not?

  5. There hasn’t been any gloating from PBers about the election and if anyone knows how to gloat about a political outcome, it’s a PB

    I tell you, if Espy can win in MS in 3 weeks time, the gloating will be thicker and sweeter than honey.

  6. Mavis Smith says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 4:09 pm

    Nice one, phoenix, one of the best authors to describe the decadence being F. Scott Fitzgerald.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Gatsby

    **********************************************

    Yes Mavis – agree with you as its a great book/movie – and Robert Redford was always a favourite with me – I watch the The Great Gatsby – and my other great Redford favourite “The Natural” at least once or twice a year …..

    “What happened to you, Roy?”

    Roy Hobbs: “My life didn’t turn out the way I expected. “

  7. Socrates:

    [‘Is ScumMo praying that he listens to his own prayers?’]

    I don’t know, but what I do know is that it’s within his remit to do something about it. Maybe he’ll have an ephipany at the Horizon church on the weekend, maybe not. Then again, he might not make church given his exhausting travel by bus all the way from the Sunny Coast to Townsville. Oh, that’s right he took a VIP jet on that leg of his journey.

  8. phoenix, although getting on in years I only recently read “The Great Gatsby”, I’m not familiar with the others you cite but will check them out.

  9. Bloody crocodile tears. Doctors were going to perform a circumcision operation on Scomo. ‘We just cant operate on this man because there is no end to this prick’ claimed the surgeon.

  10. poroti

    Having today read Sean Kelly’s piece in The Monthly (followed by Hungry Jack’s comment) I cannot believe a word that ScoMo says. Like Trump, he thinks that whatever he says is true, even if he changes it tomorrow.

  11. Sprocket@1:00pm
    Michael Daley: “If I am leader of the Labor party I do not want Luke Foley sitting in my ranks”

    C@tmomma, Zoomster, Confessions, Puffytmd and Victoria
    What do think about what Daley said?

  12. Mavis Smith says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 4:27 pm

    phoenix, although getting on in years I only recently read “The Great Gatsby”, I’m not familiar with the others you cite but will check them out.

    ********************************************

    I always like movies where a simple decent ordinary guy faces odds way above himself but conquers his fears/problems and wins out in the end

    Robert Redford/The Natural …… Gary Cooper/High Noon, Alan Ladd/Shane , Spencer Tracy/Bad Day At Black Rock/Inherit The Wind …… Michael Caine/The Quiet American/Zulu, ….Audie Murphy/To Hell And Back ….etc etc

  13. Coalition insists that Labor put the people on Nauru and would have left them there to rot, but the magnanimous Coalition have been attempting for years (?) to get them off (clearing up Labor’s mess according to the Potato).

    Obviously Morrison hasn’t spent enough time on his knees.

  14. lizzie @ #315 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 4:31 pm

    poroti

    Having today read Sean Kelly’s piece in The Monthly (followed by Hungry Jack’s comment) I cannot believe a word that ScoMo says. Like Trump, he thinks that whatever he says is true, even if he changes it tomorrow.

    I think it is possible that Mr. 😇Morrison 😇when spouting the most drivelly drivel – is quite aware of that wot he speaks.
    However, I also think that the method in the madness is that he thinks that some of the perfect boofheads among us may accept what he says as gospel and perhaps therefore be another vote gained.

    You will have spotted the little play in the previous paragraph.
    Yes, quite right, nobody is perfect.

    The same applies to Mr. 😇Turnbull 😇- an urbane, suave, forthright bullshit artist sans pareil (in his own lunchtime). We are so proud of his efforts in regard to same sex marriage. I would be proud to attend his wedding to himself should he ever be so silly as to divorce.

    Here endeth my message to the ages. 😵 ☕

    P.S. I believe that an interruption in the space/time continuum has occurred resulting in the most extraordinary statements from ordinarily dull and semi reasonable ❓ people.
    I base this last because my little Samsung tablet has PB posts time stamped one hour behind. Woe is me. Perhaps prayer will help. 🙏

  15. lizzie @ #322 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    Coalition insists that Labor put the people on Nauru and would have left them there to rot, but the magnanimous Coalition have been attempting for years (?) to get them off (clearing up Labor’s mess according to the Potato).

    Obviously Morrison hasn’t spent enough time on his knees.

    Liberal and Labor are both responsible for the inhumane torture of refugees and asylum seekers in the offshore internments.
    Don’t listen to what they say, look at what they’ve done.

  16. Rex Douglas @ #325 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 12:56 pm

    lizzie @ #322 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 4:51 pm

    Coalition insists that Labor put the people on Nauru and would have left them there to rot, but the magnanimous Coalition have been attempting for years (?) to get them off (clearing up Labor’s mess according to the Potato).

    Obviously Morrison hasn’t spent enough time on his knees.

    Liberal and Labor are both responsible for the inhumane torture of refugees and asylum seekers in the offshore internments.
    Don’t listen to what they say, look at what they’ve done.

    So are the Greens then, for voting against something that may have broken the cycle.

  17. Rex
    “”Liberal and Labor are both responsible for the inhumane torture of refugees and asylum seekers in the offshore internments.””

    If the GREENS had not stymied the Malaysian Solution, there would not be ANY there!.
    End of story!.

  18. It’s abhorrent what Liberal and Labor have done to the refugees and asylum seekers detained in the torture camps and what makes it even worse is that Liberal and Labor show no contrition and take no responsibility … just point their fingers at others.

  19. “There is no cricket match on today.
    Australia does not have a men’s cricket team.”

    Great to see the Western Fury do over the NSW Brokens today.

  20. lizzie @ #216 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 12:08 pm

    This description of Scott “It’s nothing to do with me” Morrison is well worth reading but will give you no confidence in our current PM. Thank you for whoever linked it before lunch.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/november/1540990800/sean-kelly/looking-scott-morrison

    That was me, lizzie. I read it last night and was struck by how it changed my opinion of the man. He’s no longer the clown, though I hope that perception remains popular.

    https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/november/1540990800/sean-kelly/looking-scott-morrison

  21. “It’s abhorrent what Liberal and Labor have done to the refugees and asylum seekers detained in the torture camps and what makes it even worse is that Liberal and Labor show no contrition and take no responsibility … just point their fingers at others.”

    It is very fair to blame someone for what they have actually done, it is also very fair to be critical of a bad policy, but you a blaming someone for something they haven’t done, and that is dishonest and / or really stupid and probably a bit lazy.

  22. Victoria Police confirm a man has been arrested and people are being treated for stab wounds.
    The arrested man is in a critical condition.

    The Guardian.

  23. PhoenixRed,
    ‘High Noon’ has significant historical importance. At the outset, it was hated by John Wayne and his fellow promoters of Hollywood’s blacklist in the McCarthy era, about which the theme of the film appears to reflect.

    The screenplay of ‘High Noon’ was written by Carl Foreman who was summoned to testify by the Un-American Activities Committee while the film was under production. Foreman refused to be a rat and was inevitably declared an “uncooperative witness”, so he moved to England.

    In 1961 Foreman produced and wrote one of the biggest commercial and critical successes of that year, ‘The Guns of Navarone’, which drew the second-highest box office receipts and seven Oscar nominations, two for Foreman. It currently has a ‘Rotten Tomatoes’ website critics rating of 95/100 fresh.

  24. WeWantPaul @ #339 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    “It’s abhorrent what Liberal and Labor have done to the refugees and asylum seekers detained in the torture camps and what makes it even worse is that Liberal and Labor show no contrition and take no responsibility … just point their fingers at others.”

    It is very fair to blame someone for what they have actually done, it is also very fair to be critical of a bad policy, but you a blaming someone for something they haven’t done, and that is dishonest and / or really stupid and probably a bit lazy.

    Labor put them there …and have sat by cravenly saying nothing out of fear for the loss of political points.
    Liberals inhumane cruelty… all for political points.

    Political point scoring is all that matters for Liberal and Labor.

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