First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.
The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.
Windhover, I think you have me mistaken with some other poster:
“13.If Rush succeeds he will not “get a new swimming pool”, as Michael A pejoratively describes Rush’s purpose in litigating.”
That must have been said by someone else, because it wasn’t by me. I have never offered any speculation about Geoffrey Rush’s purposes in litigating.
C@tmomma:
[‘And in the court of public opinion it would go down like a steaming hot pile of crap on a hot summer’s day left in your front yard by the local yahoo.’]
Agree, but it wouldn’t worry Trump, his ego being bigger than Ben Hur’s. In my view, losing the House will be the beginning of the end for him. He wrote it off as nothing, but he knows who now holds the purse strings, the power to subpoena, the constitution of the committees. On top of this, he has the Mueller investigation to cope with, his no-good son likely to go to goal.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/09/embattled-high-street-retailers-call-for-help-as-closures-soar
In the countdown to Brexit, the UK economy is stalling…businesses closing, jobs going….
Dio,
As you’re a person with a science degree and a widely-respected Pollbludger, I assume your math is razor sharp, so could you provide the numerical basis for your claim that Hillary should be pleased at the swing to Democratic Party’s national House of Reps vote this week? Clinton’s margin of victory over Trump was 2.09%.
SK
Yes the point about adjusting for the different elections of Midterm and Presidential is a good one.
Silver’s point is still clear.
As I said to you its margin of error stuff in results if it was polling not elections. Thats how close.
We are two years out and anyone predicting the winner is a fool. However the Democrats have made themselves competitive.
They have restored their “blue wall”. Trump won against the odds so even if he repeats its more likely the Democrats not the GOP would win. Remembering some of the gerrymandering has been dismantled. So you would have to put the odds of the Dems winning Pennsylvania higher.
Rocket Rocket
Yes. Silver’s adjusted Electoral College map adds some weight to your argument.
SK
In my last post the mid term equivalent of Trump winning would have been the Democrats winning the Senate. Not exactly same odds of course.
Luke Foley getting the “don’t come Monday’ from putative NSW Opposition Leader Michael Daley…
“Daley confirmed Foley has been referred to the party’s candidate review committee, to decide whether he will be disendorsed as the Labor candidate for Auburn at the March state election.
BuzzFeed News understands potential candidates to replace Foley are already being discussed within party headquarters, including NSW assistant secretary Rose Jackson.
Daley said Foley won’t be welcome in NSW Parliament if he becomes leader.
“I think Luke Foley should carefully consider his position,” Daley said.
“If I’m the leader of the Labor party, I don’t want Luke Foley sitting in our ranks,” Daley said.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/luke-foley-resign-labor-michael-daley-leader
And Rush’s is a defamation case.
Just as Sophie Mirabella’s general character was irrelevant to the fact that the newspaper had reported something which had never happened, what matters is whether the DT can prove that the events it says happened did.
SK, the mid-terms were very unusual in one respect – turnout. Red turnout was high. Blue turnout was even higher. The motivator in each case was Trump. In a high-turnout election in which Trump was the focus, the Democrats won; they won in the places they would need to win to defeat Trump in 2 years time.
The Democratic reboot has commenced, and in large part the reboot has been instigated by Trump himself. Consider what this means. Whenever Trump goes campaigning, he will be summoning turnout for Democrats. He’s rooted. He has become self-defeating.
The Democratic Party not only has things to fight for, they have someone to fight against. There is push. There is pull.
Sometimes, the harder you try, the worse things get. Trump has crossed that threshold. The harder he goes, the more damage he will inflict on his own standing and on Red candidates in the minds of Democrats and Independents. These two classes of voters totally outnumber the Republicans. Even though the Republicans run a very tight ground campaign, they have to out-perform everywhere to match the numbers of anti-Republicans. I think they’re stuffed.
I give Trump a 25% chance in 2020.
I expect, through his own efforts, Trump will be <10% chance by election day.
Briefly
I agree with your post of how it looks today. Just add the caveat we don’t know the future.
Eg. Mueller could get evidence out to point where we end up with President Nancy Pelosi. Thats even before you think about the House committee investigations. If the evidence is strong enough even the GOP may have no choice.
‘B. S. Fairman says:
Friday, November 9, 2018 at 12:42 pm
Re: Indonesian FTA. Jokowi can afford to sign a deal with Australia if there is even a hint of the Embassy moving. I think the whole thing is off until after the Indonesian election in May.
There was a protest with over million people in Jakarta after moved the Americans embassy in Israel outside the US Embassy. It almost got out of control too.
So Morrisson screwed up totally on this one. If only he had discussed it with DFAT or anyone an ounce of foreign policy knowledge before opening his stupid mouth.’
Kunkel is his COS. I believe he is Jewish, which is neither here nor there except that you could reasonably expect ANY COS, let alone a Jewish COS, to be aware of major possible consequences of announcing a consideration of shifting the Embassy. The notion that Kunkel was unaware does not pass the pub test.
On top of that, Morrison has acknowledged discussing this issue with Sharma before the announcement was made. Sharma has been lauded as one of our best ambassadors to Israel and to have a deep knowledge of Israeli politics (Sheridan). If there is one thing an ambassador is expected to do, it is to keep the Government out of trouble by warning them of serious potential implications of a proposed course of action. The notion that Sharma was unaware of the possible Indonesian repercussions and also that failed to pass any concerns along to Morrison, does not pass the pub test.
Morrison has been a senior cabinet minister for five years. The notion that a senior cabinet minister of that length of service was totally unaware that a mooted embassy shift might not have major consequences does not pass the pub test.
Nor should we lose sight of the fact that Morrison coupled the embassy announcement with an announcement in relation to the Iran Agreement. Even if all three of the above somehow failed to understand the implications of mooting an embassy move, that they ALSO failed to understand the implications of mooting a shift in Australia’s attitude to the Iran Agreement, utterly beggars belief.
The inference, IMO, is clear. Morrison knowingly and deliberately put Liberal Party interests above the national interest.
test
briefly
The ignorance of the basic logistics of pre-Brexit UK at the highest level is frightening!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-dover-calais-brexit-uk-france
I think initially after March 29 stuff will just be waved through at the Calais-Dover crossing. But over some months reality will have to set in, and with so much “just-in-time” logistics these days even a few hours delay will cause a monumental disaster in the UK.
And I heard David Cameron was hoping to return to Cabinet! I was stunned as I actually thought he had already left Parliament completely, having possibly destroyed in order –
his career
his country
his party
This description of Scott “It’s nothing to do with me” Morrison is well worth reading but will give you no confidence in our current PM. Thank you for whoever linked it before lunch.
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2018/november/1540990800/sean-kelly/looking-scott-morrison
Nonsense. Trump will motivate a vastly increased voter turn-out which will deliver a Democratic White House. The bigger question will be whether the Dems can flip the Senate.
If the Dems win the Arizona senate seat and lose the Florida one, they will be down 53 to 47 (assuming the Republicans win the Mississippi run-off, which they will), they will only need to win four seats to gain control.
Senator Susan Collins’ career is over thanks to her vote to confirm Kavanaugh. She has destroyed her support in southern Maine, which is very liberal, and is the number one Democratic target. On the other hand, the Democrats are very likely to lose their fluke Senate seat in Alabama. If those two seats balance each other out, then they can look to excellent opportunities in Georgia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Iowa. They would however need to flip all of them, as there are pretty much no good opportunities outside those states.
BW
Ted Kunkel used to be CEO of Fosters Brewing. He probably invented the pub test.
I eschew predictions about US elections because the quality of polling has been unreliable too often (see: Gallup poll 2012 predicting Romney victory throughout the campaign), but I would’ve bet my life’s savings on Obama after Sarah Palin’s first interview with a serious politics journalist.
Accordingly, I can now “project”, as the news networks put it, that due to the “key” of the Democratic Party’s Midterm Blue Wave, Trump would lose the 2020 election regardless of his opponent, assuming Trump is delusional enough to run instead of concocting an excuse like, say, life-threatening bone spurs.
Boer, you credit Morrison will modest intelligence. This is too lenient. He’s clearly an idiot.
‘sprocket_ says:
Friday, November 9, 2018 at 1:09 pm
BW
Ted Kunkel used to be CEO of Fosters Brewing. He probably invented the pub test.’
*laughs*
I agree Prof H,
Although one thing about the mid-terms is that it has restored my faith in the polling aggregations at the national level.
Sheridan, to his discredit, lectured others because they raised concerns about the possible impact of the embassy shift on the FTA.
Sheridan’s argument, specious IMO, was that the noise created by critics somehow or other created the means for Indonesia to arc up.
Sheridan would have known that the US embassy move created mass protests in Indonesia AND that Jokowi is having issues with managing the more fundamentalist muslims in Indonesia.
In other words, mooting the embassy shift was BOUND TO have an impact on Indonesia because of what is happening in Indonesia.
And, not, as Sheridan claimed, because of what was happening in Australia.
What happens in the US Senate with tied votes?
RR…supremely misplaced self-belief in Brexit England..,,
Bill Shorten doing better than yesterday with his response to Foley.
Today I would say all class. Presser on now.
In addition to my previous post, Texas could be an outside opportunity for the Democrats in 2020 given that it’s a presidential year, since O’Rourke came within a few percentage points of victory in a mid-term year.
Labor apparatchiks should take Foley aside and read him the Riot Act. On his admission, according to Raper, Foley admitted he was a “drunk idiot”, not recalling the details of the night in question.
To get that pissed publicly is a no no for someone aspiring to become premier, and to do what he’s alleged to have down should bring an end to his political career, leaving his party sufficient time to recover. Take one for the team, Luke – you’ll be far better off in the long run.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/women-are-burning-with-a-kind-of-cold-fury-20181109-p50ezj.html
Question says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 1:15 pm
What happens in the US Senate with tied votes?
*******************************************************************
“The Vice President of the United States shall be President of the Senate, but shall have no Vote, unless they be equally divided” (U.S. Constitution, Article I, section 3). Since 1789, 263 tie-breaking votes have been cast.
https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm
Question – The Vice President breaks the tie.
Question, so long as the economy stays on track Trump will be in with a real show.
One grab I cant shake from my head is a lady in Texas saying she voted Republican despite hating Trump because ‘I am tired of paying for other people’. This is a theme in the US (and here) where people see their taxes being wasted on things and people they dont care for – and they are cranky about it.
A Dem candidate will need to be not only convincing in their rebuttal of this, they will have to be someone swing voters in the Rust Belt or Sunbelt will listen to in the first place.
Or find another Barack Obama.
Thanks all for explaining the tie. So it looks like the Dems will only have to pick up 3 senate spots 🙂
Boerwar
Perhaps Kunkel is a fan of the Tkuma party and thinks the move to Jerusalem fine and dandy ?
S K,
Trump inherited a booming economy and poured petrol on it, and lost.
Question
In 2020 yes
Question says: Friday, November 9, 2018 at 1:19 pm
Thanks all for explaining the tie. So it looks like the Dems will only have to pick up 3 senate spots
*******************************************
Fingers crossed for Arizona and Florida ….. and if Texas voting “irregularities” were properly investigated that could have been 3 🙂
Question,
Spot on about the polling for the generic Congressional vote.
All the same, Rasmussen Report’s final prediction was a win for the Republicans +1. 😉
Yes 2020 guytaur, when they win the presidency 🙂
@carlzimmer tweets
Rick Scott sues Broward elections supervisor over delay in counting ballots https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article221390165.html
We are getting closer to seeing hanging chads on our television.
SK, I referred to & linked that Nate Silver map in the dedicated US Midterm thread this morning. The real point of that piece, which I agree with, is that the striking thing about the national pattern of R-D support is that it more closely resembles 2012 than 2016. In 2012, the Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin were solid for Obama; in 2016, they all flipped for Trump by narrow margins. In 2018, their popular House votes significantly outran the national popular House vote.
Now, it is a matter of doubt whether this indicates that many Democrats became Republicans in 2016 but have now switched back; or that many Obama Democrats became Trump Democrats but never abandoned their Democrat loyalty in races not directly involving Trump. If the former, good news for Democrats in 2020; if the latter, not so much. I would like to see some quantitative research into this particular question.
The reason this is central to 2018’s significance as an indicator for 2020 is that, as Nate Silver says, a Democrat can win without Florida as long as they sweep Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin; but they cannot win even with Florida if Trump sweeps those three Midwestern states. So, PA, MI & WI have become the new bellwether swing states for 2020, and the Democrats would definitely be happier with the 2018 midterm results in those three states than Trump or the GOP would be.
BW
The Jerusalem Embassy announcement – as others have noted – is an early ‘Prince Phillip knighthood’ moment for Scotty. Bad policy, bad politics, bad judgement.
I suspect Scotty will agree to the embassy move report findings ‘that Australia should wait and see…yada yada .’ before promulgating any decision – a the release date of 24 December will see the issue forgotten. If he doesn’t agree with the findings, we will have a clear data point that Scotty is stupid.
Prof H,
Rasmussen must be the German word for Republican 🙂
SK – The republican woman who said she was “tired of paying for other people” was really saying “I’m tired of paying for black people”. It’s all about race in the US.
‘poroti says:
Friday, November 9, 2018 at 1:21 pm
Boerwar
Perhaps Kunkel is a fan of the Tkuma party and thinks the move to Jerusalem fine and dandy ?’
Perhaps. There are reasons for and against such an embassy shift. IMO most of the reasons are against.
But the notion that one of the againsts is not strained relations with Indonesia is bizarre.
The Coalition has a history of getting Indonesian relations very, very wrong and then having to rescue them.
Turnbull, to his credit, established warm and close personal relations with Widodo.
Morrison appears to have a tin ear in foreign relations. His naming of Pacific Nations as ‘our Pacific Family’ is, IMO, more of the same sort of grating crap.
Morrison: Making Australia Grate Again.
Joe Biden is from Scranton Penn.
Not sure. It is about any public service or welfare payment that isnt one they personally use (or one they have forgotten they have used). It is rammed down their ears by Fox and shock jocks. Paul Ryan was smashed over this in 2012.
Boerwar
A bit of a LOL given how Mprrison’s party under The Rodent and The Mad Monk treated the Pacific Islands
SK
Thats certainly the right wing narrative. Neoliberalism is their thing.
However Obamacare has survived and was a winning argument for the Democrats in 2018.
It almost won them 2016. That was one of Clinton’s failures. She did not connect Medicare as much as the 2018 Democrats did. Probably her experience from blowback from her efforts as First Lady.
I hold a differing view about the impact of the Republican Party’s having retained control of the Senate. It would have been more favourable for Trump to have Democrats being able to pass legislation that he can not only veto but invent a Goebbels-quality lie to justify each veto.
A prime example is the Obamacare “death panels” lie spewed by Republicans long before Trump’s mendacious campaign which the MSM pretends is a new phenomenon in America’s political sewer. The death panels and other Obamascare nonsense kept his approval numbers consistently below 50% (in the months prior to the 2014 midterm election it was at 38%) until a fair whack of Bernie Sanders supporters (previously John Edwards supporters) finally stopped bellyaching that Obama wasn’t pure enough for their taste. Obama’s approval number upon departing the Presidency in January 2017 was 57%.
From Aug 2018
“A former state Liberal Party director, a former state party leader and a former number cruncher for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull are part of Peter Dutton’s inner circle as he bides his time for another leadership tilt.
After 17 years in federal politics, it is not surprising the former police officer’s sounding boards are mostly from the political world, but he does have some close ties with those in the business world, including prominent Queensland businesswoman Sarina Russo.”
Ms Russo was on The Drum on this week and thinks Trump is sincere “I’ve met him”.
https://www.afr.com/news/politics/the-political-and-business-insiders-who-make-up-peter-duttons-inner-circle-20180822-h14ay0