BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 1:11 pm

    I will be Prime Minister of Australia

    ….good to see that aspiring leaders don’t see politics as being all about their own destiny….

  2. If you have the time, please consider attending a presentation by a distinguished American macroeconomist called Stephanie Kelton. She will be speaking at an event that is organized by GetUp.

    Future To Fight For: Rethinking The Economy

    https://rethink.futuretofightfor.org.au/speakers

    The Sydney event will be held at Sydney Town Hall, 483 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000.

    The date and time of the Sydney event will be Saturday 17th November 2018 at 7.00 pm.

    The Melbourne event will be held at Collingwood Town Hall, 140 Hoddle Street, Abbotsford VIC 3067.

    The date and time of the Melbourne event will be Tuesday 20th November at 7.00 pm

    The Brisbane event will be held at Lightspace, 30 Light Street, Fortitude Valley QLD 4006.

    The date and time of the Brisbane event will be Wednesday 21st November at 7.00 pm

    Professor Kelton will outline the rigorous macroeconomic case for the federal government to spend within the productive limits of the economy instead of targeting arbitrary and irrelevant deficit to GDP and public debt to GDP ratios.

  3. Speaking of Arts grants: Les Patterson.

    In one of Les’s yarns, he approaches that great supporter for arts
    funding. Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, for an arts grant to develop
    a ‘black, lesbian, disabled puppet workshop’. When Gough asks what
    Les will really do with the money Les candidly replies, ‘I’ll piss it up
    against the wall’. Gough then gleefully says, ‘Les, you are an honest
    man. I’ll double it!’

    https://books.google.com.au/books?id=zKo8DrmamAwC&pg=PA37&lpg=PA37&dq=les+patterson+%22disabled+puppet+workshop%22&source=bl&ots=vDY8fb2fvZ&sig=BbM5ZH9iTCyVhP7XWYQ9wUQHjkk&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjX9bTep8veAhXFF3IKHcToBLEQ6AEwAHoECAAQAQ#v=onepage&q=les%20patterson%20%22disabled%20puppet%20workshop%22&f=false


  4. Bree says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 12:27 pm

    We need to ban the burqa and niqab in Australia, other western countries like Denmark and Austria have done it recently, it is time Australia does so as well.

    Don’t like the wearers fashion sense? Personally I would go after Stilettos first.

  5. Conservative rips Trump for disrespecting veterans: ‘No understanding of what soldiers do or the honor code by which they live’

    Washington Post columnist Max Boot was outraged by President Donald Trump’s decision to skip a tribute to soldiers who died in World War I on Saturday.

    In a new column, the conservative rips Trump’s pattern of disrespect toward veterans.

    “It seems that soldiers who were captured aren’t the only ones that President Trump doesn’t like. He also apparently doesn’t care much for the ones who died for their country,” he writes.

    Boot mocked Trump for refusing to take a 55-mile car ride to the cemetery, instead sitting in his hotel room watching TV.

    “It’s not as if he didn’t sacrifice anything, however. Odds are that his room didn’t have Fox News. So he was probably reduced to watching CNN all afternoon. If the New York dating scene was Trump’s personal Vietnam, this was his personal Verdun,” Boot writes. “He has no understanding of what soldiers do or the honor code by which they live.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/11/conservative-rips-trump-disrespecting-veterans-no-understanding-soldiers-honor-code-live/

    Max Boot in WaPo :

    Trump shows his contempt for the men and women in uniform

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trump-shows-his-contempt-for-the-men-and-women-in-uniform/2018/11/10/1f8f2632-e524-11e8-8f5f-a55347f48762_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.51e75524ee1f

  6. By Humphries’ own account, the character of Patterson first appeared in a one-man show that he performed at the St. George leagues club in Sydney in January 1974. Humphries claimed to be that club’s own entertainments officer. As Humphries recalled, “I understood later that many members of the audience thought Les was genuinely a club official.

  7. Zoomster:

    I’m not sure the Greens have a few more years. They seem to be on the same trajectory as the Dems.

    While they’ve certainly hit a bit of a wall, I think the Greens are going to be around for quite a while yet.

    The demise of the Democrats came about as a result of the party becoming such a broad church that their parliamentarians all loathed each other and noone (including the party itself) seemed to have the faintest idea what they stood for anymore. (Sound familiar?) Were they a force in the senate, keeping the bastards honest for reviewing legislation and proposing amendments? A home for protest voters? The sensible centre, occupying the middle ground between the extremes of the majors? The moderate alternative to the Liberal Party? The left-wing alternative to the Labor Party? By the end, they were all of these things, and therefore none of them. (Of course, the Meg Lees/GST stuff-up also had a lot to do with their eventually collapse, but I believe that to be another symptom of having such a nebulous and ever-shifting platform and membership.)

    The Greens, by contrast, have a well-defined ideological platform, a large and dedicated base, and a strong hold on certain demographics and areas. Love them or hate them, you know what the Greens stand for*. Shorten’s general reputation for being a more “right-wing” Labor leader (an assertion I don’t entirely agree with myself, but that’s a whole other topic) and Labor’s stances on stuff like the TPP will only help keep many of Greens supporters within the fold.

    They may well be going backwards a bit, but their vote would have to seriously plummet for them to get to the point where they start having trouble meeting Senate quotas. Personally, I reckon they will end up in a similar position to the Nats – and are possibly already there – oscillating back and forth a little from election to election, but maintaining a pretty consistent share of their primary vote and seats. Look at their primary vote on BludgerTrack: it’s a literal straight line.

    Additionally, I’d argue one reason the Democrats imploded so quickly was that much of their left-leaning base fled to the Greens. There isn’t really a similar alternative at present for disaffected Greens who don’t want to vote 1 Labor. Maybe the Reason Party at a stretch, but I personally think the main thing that really attracted voters to them was that they used to have the word “Sex” in their name, which tended to stand out on enormous Senate/Legislative Council ballot papers, and with their new (and, IMO, terribly boring and pretentious) name, will likely fade into obscurity pretty quickly. (Interestingly, the Democrats tried a similar approach in their final campaign in 2007, with their rather patronizing “Vote for Common Sense” slogan – it didn’t work so well for them, though, in fairness, not much would have by that point.)

    * Before anyone inevitably points it out, I realize that there’s an argument that can be made about the Greens’ actual actions in parliament not always matching up to their stated policy goals (something I’d agree that there is a little truth to, but nowhere near to the extent that many claim here) – I’m talking about the perceptions of relatively engaged (or, conversely, blindly partisan) supporters here.

  8. The ALP don’t know how good they’ve got it. They used to get the DEM’s split ticket preferences and now they get most of the Greens. They should be kissing Green feet.

  9. nath says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 2:15 pm
    The ALP don’t know how good they’ve got it. They used to get the DEM’s split ticket preferences and now they get most of the Greens. They should be kissing Green feet.

    Nah they don’t wash much. Them Greenies.

  10. One for you Boerwar – I know you have a strong interest in the health and livelihood of our men and women in uniform

    Australia’s other deadly war. In a year it killed more soldiers than the whole Afghan conflict

    THIS is a military conflict of a different kind. In a single year, it killed more soldiers than during the entire Afghanistan war. But in 2015 alone — in the course of a single year — that same number of current and ex-service personnel committed suicide.

    ACROSS the entire duration of the conflict in Afghanistan, 41 members of the Australian Defence Force were tragically killed in action.

    Between 2001 and 2016, there were a total of 373 suicides among service, reserve and former members of the Defence Force.

    Of those, more than half were ex-serving personnel who had returned to their communities and civilian life.

    MORE : https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/mind/australias-other-deadly-war-in-a-year-it-killed-more-soldiers-than-the-whole-afghan-conflict/news-story/26b6063a8df35a340391cd32d99dd6d2

  11. nath:

    I think there’s a strong argument to be made that losing a good portion of their left flank to the Greens has helped the Labor Party avoid the sort of irreconcilable ideological differences currently tearing the Liberal Party apart. The Labor can focus on being a centre-left party that doesn’t scare off the moderate and centre-right swinging voters, safe in the knowledge that most of the votes of those who find Labor too right-wing for their tastes will wind up coming back to them in preferences. Meanwhile, the Liberals are bleeding their own right flank to the likes of One Nation and KAP, and are often lucky to get even 60% of that back in preferences.

  12. I’m watching Victorian Socialists with some interest. I think they have the potential to hurt Greens as an alternative party on the left. They seem to have plenty of volunteers and a dedicated bunch happy to go doorknocking and leafletting. Most organized of micro parties for sure.

    Most of those people would likely to have been campaigning for Greens some years back. May not shift many votes but they may cause some losses in terms of manpower.

  13. Yeah that’s probably right Asha. If the Greens can get even 2-3 lower house seats in Canberra then it will matter big time in a hung/close parliament.

  14. Michael BeschlossVerified account@BeschlossDC
    2h2 hours ago
    In the Paris rain, May 1961, JFK and de Gaulle honor soldiers who gave their lives:

    :large

    Poor Donald, scared of a little rain.

  15. If Trump can’t win by bullying, he’ll declare the winners unlawful. Baby can’t bear to lose.

    Miami: Florida’s Senate and governor’s races are going to a recount, triggering a frenzied process that will decide two key offices in the largest US swing state, and setting off outcries from Republicans led by President Donald Trump.

    The Republicans’ advantage in both races has fallen below the 0.5 percent threshold required to trigger mandatory machine recounts, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a statement on Saturday.

    The move quickly drew a rebuke from Trump, who’s in Paris to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the end of World War One: “Trying to STEAL two big elections in Florida!” Trump tweeted.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/florida-to-recount-senate-and-governor-votes-as-trump-leads-the-outcry-20181111-p50fbm.html?platform=hootsuite

  16. lizzie @ #1480 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 2:35 pm

    If Trump can’t win by bullying, he’ll declare the winners unlawful. Baby can’t bear to lose.

    Miami: Florida’s Senate and governor’s races are going to a recount, triggering a frenzied process that will decide two key offices in the largest US swing state, and setting off outcries from Republicans led by President Donald Trump.

    The Republicans’ advantage in both races has fallen below the 0.5 percent threshold required to trigger mandatory machine recounts, Secretary of State Ken Detzner said in a statement on Saturday.

    The move quickly drew a rebuke from Trump, who’s in Paris to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the end of World War One: “Trying to STEAL two big elections in Florida!” Trump tweeted.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/florida-to-recount-senate-and-governor-votes-as-trump-leads-the-outcry-20181111-p50fbm.html?platform=hootsuite

    Is Trump really that unconfident of the recount results!?!

  17. nath:

    I’m surprised that you’d support Patterson. He’s bigoted, racist, ageist, non PC, homophobic – a nasty piece of work, and I’m shocked that I have him as my screen persona; I meant to have St Teresa of Ávila.

  18. C@t:

    Apparently his helicopter can’t fly in rain and driving would’ve been a logistical nightmare according to the WH.

    May be true, but it’s a poor look regardless. And seeing as the WH and president tell so many lies, nobody believes the reason given anyway.

  19. Nicholas says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 1:33 pm
    Briefly, I would like you to be Poet Laureate during my premiership. Or Commonwealth Minister for the Arts. Your pick.

    In that case, my humble suggestion is that you join Labor. Within Labor you will find allies, develop skills, democratise your goals and contribute to its historic mission. Your ideas will develop and your politics will be refreshed by campaigning to and with the delightful ordinary people of this country. You should make your friends in Labor rather than your enemies.

    Consider the great steps taken in the past by the thinkers and actors who built Labor – by Fisher, by Scullin, Curtin and Chifley, by Whitlam to name just some. Join the work-in-progress.

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 2:39 pm
    Poor Donald, scared of a little rain.

    Freaking waste of political space. Were Donny’s heel spurs hurting?

    His Orange would have washed off along with hair.

  21. Hey briefly

    Thanks for the commentary on Pearce yesterday

    Do you have any sense of the reception to ALP in Stirling? Rather wider margin (6.1 vs 3.6) but with Keenan, fingered by Turnbull

  22. Now that the 100th anniversary of the armistice is done and dusted let us give a silent prayer of thanks that PM Tony had been removed before the 100th anniversary.

  23. zoomster
    says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 2:44 pm
    nath
    You said you lived on the Mornington Peninsula. That’s a long way from Batman and inner city Melbourne.
    ___________________________
    Well, seeing as your so interested in my personal circumstances. I have a holiday home on the MP where I am at this moment, recovering from major surgery with a period in intensive care. I live in the Eastern suburbs of Melbourne but spent the first 30 years of my life living in Clifton Hill, which is the southern end of Batman and formerly in the old City of Collingwood. My family have lived in the Northcote area since the 1920s.

  24. Asha

    Locally, the Greens branches are crushing. Their perpetual candidate is now running as an indie. In her time, she has been high up on their Senate ticket, so this isn’t a Green nobody we’re talking about but a key mover and shaker.

    ‘The demise of the Democrats came about as a result of the party becoming such a broad church that their parliamentarians all loathed each other and noone (including the party itself) seemed to have the faintest idea what they stood for anymore. (Sound familiar?’

    Yes, that’s why I’m doubtful about the Greens’ survival.

    They’re failing on what should be core issues – transparency, lack of nepotism, respect for women, the environment.

  25. Confessions

    The Secret Service decides whether the helicopter can fly so in this case not Trump’s call. The president needs a veritable army when travelling so maybe the Secret Service also called last minute alternatives a no go ? I’m sure there would be some senior Secret Service types who would be ‘saddened’ to take such decisions and so make Trump look bad 🙂

  26. C@tmomma
    I see nath needs glasses. He couldn’t see the house.
    ____________________
    Actually I made no mention of the car shed or what looks like a nice little cottage. that was someone else. Looks like a nice place, enjoy.

  27. I’m sure there would be some senior Secret Service types who would be ‘saddened’ to take such decisions and so make Trump look bad

    I’m so sure.

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