BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. Re. Remembrance Day:

    In my formative years everyone – well nearly everyone – stood for a minute’s silence, reflection on November, 11. Vehicles stopped and the occupants got out. Depending on which day it fell, people in, say, department stores showed their respect, and so it went on.

    This morning I asked a couple of my young relatives if they knew the significance of November, 11. They gave me a blank look and said they were off the KFC. Attitudes change with the times, evidenced, for instance, by the fact that it was normal to smoke in cinemas, public transport. And while not criticising change, the rate of it in some 50 years has been dramatic to say the least.

  2. nath…the Gs of Melbourne are making that evaluation. They have been Labor-predators. In WA this will get them exactly nowhere. The more they campaign against Labor the more their vote will fall, and there are no lower house prospects for them here. None.

    The point is that the split in the Labor plurality occurred years ago and is gradually healing itself. This is an existential threat to the Gs. They know it. Their response is 2-part. They will seek to accentuate the Labor-G divide. They will also try to collect some of the now-decomposing Lib bloc. In each case, they have to become more Oppositionist. They moving that way. They may eventually displace the Liberals in some places. We’ll see.

    Politics is reverting to its historic character…..where Labor was the only party that could offer a majority government in its own right, under its own steam….and everyone else defines themselves by opposition to Labor. ‘Twas ever thus. And so it will be again.

    The greatest volatility is on the Right. The Gs must look with envy at the results achieved by the Independents, who easily outnumber them in the House.

  3. “Those basic responsibilities of a society should not be atomized, individualized, and opened up to private greed and rent-seeking.”

    Except you know where that is what we choose to do over the last 116 or so years, but yeah except for that consistent democratic choice to do it a different way, your way is definitely what should happen.

    Such extreme stuff is much more likely to reduce the effectiveness of your message where it is pretty clear that the virtual exit of Government from providing low cost housing, is a real issue that could be addressed, but no one is going to address it for a point of view that ignores the entire history of the country.

  4. WeWantPaul says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 12:03 pm

    “But when Preston gentrifies a bit more, and it is rapidly doing so, Batman will fall to the Greens.”

    Are these ‘gents’ really that dumb that it is inevitable?
    __________________________________
    Every year in Batman older ALP voters are dying or selling out. It is young people moving in. It is a cultural thing too in inner Melbourne. In these areas, if you are young, and even if you are not that politically engaged, you just vote Green because you’re friends do.

  5. Most swinging voters wouldn’t give a stuff what the left wing ABC Insiders crew think of PM Morrison’s bus, it’s not as if he’s the first political leader to have a campaign bus – a huge fuss over nothing. Swinging voters are more interested in a leader who wants to defeat and call out radical Islamist extremism rather than what the ABC Insiders think of a bus.

  6. One Lib described how Morrison’s bus tour was going down with the public; ‘like a turd in a well’

    Most of their rats never bothered to get back on the ship. They will be regularly sniping from the flotsam.

  7. “Attitudes change with the times, evidenced, for instance, by the fact that it was normal to smoke in cinemas, public transport. And while not criticising change, the rate of it in some 50 years has been dramatic to say the least.”

    The nationalist glory of war mobs have fixated their stupidity on ANZAC day and Australia day, remembrance day as a shared global day doesn’t fit with the hate agenda, there is a risk it might unite and detract from the glory of wars coming, rather than divide and help create those future wars.

  8. Nath:

    Honestly the whole bus thing escapes me. I assume it’s pretty standard way of doing things. I mean, is he supposed to sleep on the bus? How important is it that Morrison stays with the bus the whole time. The bus will forgive him I reckon. Plus it enables him to fly to where he’s going, sleep there while bus travels to him. Then get on the bus and hit the local towns.

    I think, as Mavis Smith pointed out, the main problem isn’t that he’s not on the bus the whole time, but that he had suggested that he would be. He could have been upfront from the beginning and just calmly explained why it probably isn’t very practical for the Prime Minister of Australia to spend an entire week or two trapped inside a bus, but instead it looks like he’s been caught in a lie, and has reacted in his usual thin-skinned, ultra-defensive style to journalists questioning him about it.

    It just makes the whole thing look like what it is – a cynical PR stunt. And, yes, most of these sorts of “listening tours” are exactly that, regardless of the party behind them, but generally they are pretty good at masking that fact.

  9. Morisons bus tour is a continuation of the coalition substituting the idea of something for the thing itself. It may have started with Abbotts “Plan for All Australians” that turned out to be a pamphlet. It would have been terific if there had been a plan for all Australians. It continued with the idea of a climate policy “Direct Action” that wasn’t and a National Broadband Network that wasn’t. Though with that one there was a plan, but the coalition dumped the plan but kept the idea.
    The electorate now sees a govermnment bereft of policy trying to look like a government but being the opposition in waiting.

  10. If Morrison had any sense he would have the bus parked in populated areas and invited the public to ask him questions throughout the day to get to know the public and vice versa face to face.

  11. Every year in Batman older ALP voters are dying or selling out. It is young people moving in. It is a cultural thing too in inner Melbourne. In these areas, if you are young, and even if you are not that politically engaged, you just vote Green because you’re friends do.

    The only thing that unifies the young people of Inner City Melbourne who can afford to buy into the area, is that they are wealthy. However, their values are not uniformly Teal Green. Some of them are concerned for the future of their young families and are thus attracted to the fairness and equity policies of the Labor Party.

    Plus, in those same inner city areas Labor can count on the votes of their traditional supporters in the Social Housing precincts, who know that Labor is the only party that really cares about them.

  12. The bus was simply a dumb move because it allowed anyone with an image editor to superimpose their own message. When you’re in a hole the first rule is to stop digging. But the second one surely is not to give your opponents shovels, to fill it in on top of you. (Never mind the insulting superficiality of the thing.)

  13. Guytaur, you add something to Stiglitz which I do not

    As he is here in the next week or so, including at the National Press Club luncheon on the 14th I think without checking my diary, you may ask him yourself

  14. Such extreme stuff

    It is sad that you see meeting everybody’s housing needs and providing a decent standard of living to all retirees as extreme.

    If you pay careful attention to history, you see that what counts as a mainstream idea can change quickly and without much warning.

    Australia’s current approach to housing and retirement income is grossly inadequate and socially unsustainable. The current approach is based on a denial of reality: that these matters are fundamentally public, social, and shared responsibilities. If we try to deny that fact of human society, as we currently do through badly designed policies, we inflict a lot of harm on ourselves.

    There will be big changes… the relevant question is what kind of change and how will it be effected.

    Limping along with the existing deficient policies will not last long.

  15. Bree:

    You’re missing the point. The last prime minister to be seriously ridiculed was Billy McMahon, and we know what happened to him. The point is that one can be criticised until the cows come home, but derision is different: when it becomes ingrained nothing will surmount it – Morrison having nearly reached the point of no return.

  16. Batman (renamed Cooper) is relatively safe for Labor now. Ged Kearney is the Labor left type best placed to retain it against the Greens. Id be more worried about Labor losing Wills as the member there is not that inspiring and the gentrification of inner Melbourne continues and the demographics move against Labor. Macnamara (formerly Melbourne Ports) is a genuine three cornered contest. Is there enough demographic changes to benefit the Greens? Where do Jewish voters that may have supported the former Labor member go? Straight to the Libs? The Greens support for Palenstine is probably not going to attract them. Maybe some might go to Reason Party? (Formerly Sex Party)

  17. Simon² Katich® @ #1406 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 12:08 pm

    One Lib described how Morrison’s bus tour was going down with the public; ‘like a turd in a well’

    Most of their rats never bothered to get back on the ship. They will be regularly sniping from the flotsam.

    Very well observed, SK. Another one I heard was that it was going down like a turd in a swimming pool. 🙂

    I imagine that, as you allude to, there are some very disgruntled Ultra Conservatives in the ‘Liberal’ Party who had made extensive plans from Day 1, after Abbott was deposed by Turnbull and the Moderates, and thought that they had been carefully executed up until the coup de grace would supposedly be made. Except Scott Morrison had been quietly white-anting them and instead took what they believed was rightfully theirs.

    They don’t forgive and they don’t forget, as we have already seen once this term.

  18. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 12:14 pm

    Every year in Batman older ALP voters are dying or selling out. It is young people moving in. It is a cultural thing too in inner Melbourne. In these areas, if you are young, and even if you are not that politically engaged, you just vote Green because you’re friends do.

    The only thing that unifies the young people of Inner City Melbourne who can afford to buy into the area, is that they are wealthy. However, their values are not uniformly Teal Green. Some of them are concerned for the future of their young families and are thus attracted to the fairness and equity policies of the Labor Party.

    Plus, in those same inner city areas Labor can count on the votes of their traditional supporters in the Social Housing precincts, who know that Labor is the only party that really cares about them.
    __________________________________________
    Many of the ‘wealthy’ young people you speak of live in share houses. Some have good jobs, many just get by. But they party a lot, and many live alternative lifestyles.

    The biggest ‘social housing projects’ which in Melbourne are called the ‘Housing Commission Flats’ or just simply ‘the Flats’ are actually already in the Greens electorate of Melbourne. The large Commission areas in Collingwood, the Five Towers in Ricmond, The Towers in Fitzroy and Carlton. All these are in Melbourne. There are actually only a couple of Housing Commission areas in Batman, which will make this electorate move quicker in relation to vote and gentrification. I know my shit.

  19. “It is sad that you see meeting everybody’s housing needs and providing a decent standard of living to all retirees as extreme.”

    No that is a very unkind mischaracterisation, by which you imply I don’t desire it. What I see is that it is an extreme departure and a decision that is extremely far away from the decisions we’ve been taking. And I see your nasty arrogant preachy stuff as little different to the nastiest young lib screeching away about ‘a job’ and ‘having a go’ being a guaranteed solution easily applied to the whole economy if you do it properly.

    I see it really sad, that just like those naïve foolish privileged young libs, your arrogant solution developed in complete detachment to real world, can’t help and in fact will hurt those that need help, here in the real world. No doubt like the young libs you are pretty happy to ‘crack a few eggs’ over the medium term to deliver your nirvana. Very very sad.

  20. We need to ban the burqa and niqab in Australia, other western countries like Denmark and Austria have done it recently, it is time Australia does so as well.

  21. nath,
    The Batman voters have embraced Ged Kearney. They have repudiated The Greens’ Alex Bhathal.

    I may support your contention though, that the people who party too much vote Green. 🙂

  22. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 12:28 pm

    nath,
    The Batman voters have embraced Ged Kearney. They have repudiated The Greens’ Alex Bhathal.

    I may support your contention though, that the people who party too much vote Green.
    _________________________
    Kearney will probably hold Batman this next election. But I woulnd’t be too sure about the one after that. It will happen.

    Listen, I don’t presume to tell you people about the local politics of Bumcrack, Idaho, or wherever the hell you people live. 🙂

  23. Bree @ #1425 Sunday, November 11th, 2018 – 12:27 pm

    We need to ban the burqa and niqab in Australia, other western countries like Denmark and Austria have done it recently, it is time Australia does so as well.

    And in typically, can’t see the wood for trees, fashion, you can’t see that this sort of move only radicalises extremists even more. Better to embrace the religion and allow it to adopt Australian characteristics of free and easy expression. Without radical moves either way.

  24. Three statewide contests in Florida — including the closely watched Senate race — headed for history-making recounts, election officials confirmed Saturday, with the lead by Gov. Rick Scott (R) over Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in the marquee contest shrinking to 12,562 votes out of nearly 8.2 million cast.

    The 0.15 percent margin is narrow enough to not only trigger a machine recount, which by law must be completed by Thursday, but is likely to result in a recount by hand across the state — a complicated logistical task in the nation’s biggest battleground state.

    The new tally in the governor’s race was not quite as close, but it also met the threshold for a voting machine recount. Numbers posted on the state election website showed Republican Ron DeSantis leading Democrat Andrew Gillum by 33,684 votes.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/recount-to-begin-in-florida-senate-and-governors-races-in-echo-of-2000-presidential-election/2018/11/10/1241d726-e502-11e8-a1c9-6afe99dddd92_story.html?utm_term=.a46046ae239a

    Of course President Man Baby accuses Democrats of trying to ‘steal’ the election.

  25. Snowflakes melt in the rain anyway.

    President Donald Trump could not attend a commemoration in France for US soldiers and marines killed during World War I on Saturday because rain made it impossible to arrange transport, the White House said.

    The last minute cancellation prompted widespread criticism on social media and from some officials in Britain and the United States that Trump had “dishonoured” US servicemen.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/trump-pulls-out-of-ww1-memorial-at-us-cemetery-in-france-due-to-rain-20181111-p50fb4.html

  26. steve davis:

    Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 12:20 pm

    [‘Morrison must be getting slaughtered in the polls in QLD to come up with this bus fart idea.’]

    My guess is that their internal polling is on par or worse than the state YouGov poll of 53:47. From what I gather up here, the bus tour was a fizza, those photshopped bus signs all over social media.

  27. But don’t get me wrong Nic, you are on the right track to be an Australian Greens leader, you just need to work on screwing over some workers, perhaps a nanny or two, and then destroy an environmental protection plan or two because it ‘just isn’t good enough, nothing is better’. All it will take an you too can lead a party less effective than the nationals.

  28. I wasted time on Bree, who is a disgrace who is the worst kind of Australian one we could well do without, if she wants to start a gofund me for a one way ticket to anywhere let me know. The contribution of refugees to this country, however they dress is fantastic and wonderful, and I’m prepared to bet most of them contribute more to the wonder of our beautiful country every hour than Bree has in her whole life, polluting our community with her hate and ignorance. We should definitely ban her type of hate speech long before we ban any items of clothing.

  29. Taxes drive the value of the currency and enable the government to command the real resources (labour, materials, technology etc) that it needs to carry out the functions of a government. The currency is valuable because millions of people owe tax liabilities that can only be paid in that currency. It is easy to find people willing to accept a currency as payment for goods or services or as settlement of a debt if they know that millions of people need that currency to avoid the penalties for non-compliance with tax obligations.

    Pay your taxes, people.

  30. Asha Leu:

    [‘… he’s been caught in a lie, and has reacted in his usual thin-skinned, ultra-defensive style to journalists questioning him about it.’]

    Agree, and an example of is his Trump-like reaction was when an ABC journo asked him a question that was perfectly legitimate and which was sourced from a North Queensland constituent. The more I see of this man, the more there’s to dislike.

  31. Great to see PJK at the Remembrance service in Canberra.

    Morrison’s speech was quite good, but the delivery of it had a degree of insincerity about it. He sounds like he’s done a course in method acting, exampled by his tendency to quiver.

  32. We Want Paul, I don’t want to be Greens Leader – the Greens are far too timid and unimaginative for the scale of the tasks that lie ahead for our country. The Greens share the macroeconomic illiteracy of the ALP and the LNP – they have the absurd view that the Australian Government should aim to tax more than it spends because a currency-issuing government is somehow like a currency-using household – needs to save up for a rainy day and other such nonsense.

    I will be Prime Minister of Australia – I’m young and charismatic and smart enough to make it to that position within the next two decades, but I doubt that it will be as leader of a party that is currently well-known. But it is possible that the ALP or the Greens might get up to speed on macreconomics because of voter pressure for them to do so. I’ll do what I can to help that process along, along with thousands of other activists.

    If you are still interested in public policy in a couple of decades I would like you to have a senior role in a financial regulatory agency.

    My name is Nicholas. I’m from Queensland and I’m here to help (and I don’t bully people or throw tantrums or micro-manage, so don’t worry).

    Best wishes

    Nicholas

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