BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,769 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

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  1. WSJ is a Murdoch outlet too.

    Walter ShaubVerified account@waltshaub
    3h3 hours ago
    An important aspect of the excellent new investigative piece by the Wall St J is about to be overlooked. This part establishes that Trump committed a felony when he knowingly omitted his debt to Michael Cohen from his June 2017 financial disclosure report.
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-played-central-role-in-hush-payoffs-to-stormy-daniels-and-karen-mcdougal-1541786601?emailToken=6cd1a51c74787078e5b94a194e8f5bdbZsYWbpjQ7M7O7zlIO6nojpalNQh4e4MA2YPpRaZiwkXD2S6YtjoEufTvU5WgWJXKU4f0LvBbGf3aLXRk5vSj/rtwQqsszvC9YdONcgryh7OvS6HWfgLTNyhQllAtAV4kdZWWjJgCKiTsNQgaGTy3WAXt7Br6jSu0GIsk/ylXv88%3D&reflink=article_copyURL_share …

  5. “Whitaker’s appointment as Acting United States AG is almost certainly invalid and will be overturned by the courts. ”

    Really? The Supreme Court, the partisan US Supreme Court is going to overturn an appointment where you don’t even need to get all the imaginative to construe it as legal?

    I hope to be surprised but I am expecting almost zero negative supreme court outcomes for Trump. The contortions they had to do to get Trumps racist religiously motived travel ban through involved abandoning good law and reality both, and they did it even before the partisan hack Kavanagh was there.

    One mistake many Australian legal minds make when turning to the US law is to fail to appreciate just how important form can be, and how inclined they are to see form over substance, I would argue in some matters I’ve seen they will respect complete sham form over apparent substance. So for example the Session’s resignation is so transparently a sacking that even the Canberra Press Gallery got it, but the form is clearly a resignation, so there is a good chance it stands.

  6. In addition to BK’s link on Kerry O’Brien’s memoirs, here’s a Guardian piece focusing on the ABC.

    ‘It was magic’: Kerry O’Brien on ABC bosses, battles and why it’s no bed of lefties

    Exclusive: The veteran journalist’s new memoir ranges across his 50-year career to write about his 7.30 heyday, culture wars and his ‘tinges of regrets’

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/nov/10/it-was-magic-kerry-obrien-on-abc-bosses-battles-and-and-why-its-no-bed-of-lefties

  7. @ForecasterEnten tweets

    Tomorrow will tell us a lot more of where Arizona stands given the ballots to be counted, but I saw nothing today to knock me off the idea that Sinema is favored.

  8. The Democratic Party has already flipped the highest number of House of Reps seats, 37, than it has since the Watergate era. In addition, as Lawrence O’Donnell puts it, Republican Senators in Texas and Governors in Georgia arn’t supposed to be forced into sweating out tight elections. 🙂

  9. Last week Democrats gathered in San Diego, and while the top news story might have been incumbent Senator Diane Feinstein failing to secure the party’s endorsement, another groundbreaking moment quietly slipped into the record books. According to a review of the last several decades of platforms, this is the first time that a Universal Basic Income has been included in an official Democratic Party Platform as a strategy for economic justice.

    https://medium.com/economicsecproj/universal-basic-income-is-officially-part-of-the-california-democratic-party-platform-fc483ee040b2

    Also from article Gallup polling

    The strongest consensus, however, was found around how to pay for it; 80 percent of those in support of a basic income say that the companies benefitting most from technological advancement should foot the bill.

  10. WeWantPaul:

    But a precedent has already been set by Justice Thomas (see the thread to Nicholas’ post) on appointments of principal officers, whether they are permanent or temporary.

    Further, it takes a long time to have a matter heard in the Supreme Court, though I guess if Whitaker’s appointment is challenged, the court may expedite the matter or Trump may seek an injunction confirming his appointment until the Court can hear it.

    The other out for Trump is to remove Whitaker, renominate him, and have the Senate confirm him.

    I do agree with the overall thrust of your post. That is, the Supreme Court won’t be Democrat friendly.

  11. nath:

    [‘Shaun Micallef is a genius’]

    As Mad as Hell is about the only free-to-air program I look forward to. But the last two episodes have been pretty average – more of the same sort of stuff and predictable.

  14. Tuesday’s midterm elections can be summed up in four words: The reckoning has come. An estimated 113 million voters, an impressive 49 percent of the electorate, turned out in numbers closer to the 2016 presidential election than the 2014 midterms. Indeed, this is the highest turnout rate for a midterm election since the 1960s.

    With (most) of the ballots counted, it’s clear that the Democrats resoundingly took control of the House of Representatives, seven gubernatorial mansions, over 300 state legislative seats and also added to their ranks in state and local races throughout the country. While Republicans expanded their majority in the Senate and arguably ended the rural Democratic Party, Americans delivered an unmistakable message of disapproval to both Donald Trump and the GOP itself. Fueling that judgment? Millennials, young voters and women.

    https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/trump-celebrated-midterm-results-without-millennials-women-he-could-be-ncna934706

  17. Mavis Smith
    says:
    Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 10:50 am
    nath:
    [‘Shaun Micallef is a genius’]
    As Mad as Hell is about the only free-to-air program I look forward to. But the last two episodes have been pretty average – more of the same sort of stuff and predictable.
    __________________________
    Comedy is harder to do than most things. I find most comedians to be mostly miss with a few hits. Micallef has a pretty good average and is brilliant on occasions, that’s as much as you can hope for.

  19. As Victoria Police raid properties in Melbourne’s north and west following yesterday’s terrorism attack, the identity of the man who carried out the fatal stabbing in Bourke Street has been confirmed as Hassan Khalif Shire Ali.

    The Somali-born man, aged in his early 30s, crashed his car loaded with gas bottles in the Melbourne CBD and stabbed three people before he was shot by police and died in hospital.

    The ABC understands he is also known as Hassan Ali and Hassan Khalif, and recently moved from his family’s Werribee home because of problems with substance abuse.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-10/security-strengthened-after-terror-in-bourke-street–melbourne/10484390

  21. Breaking! 🙂 MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki reports that Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has just doubled her lead to over 20,000 after the announcement that 80,000+ votes have now been officially added to the Arizona Senate race tally.

  22. Nicholas

    For the first time in the party’s history members will be asked in two surveys if they want to have a say in the federal leadership, and whether the minor party should grant Labor only supply and confidence, enter a formal agreement or even take ministries in a Labor-Greens government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/10/greens-to-survey-members-on-how-to-pick-leader-and-govern-with-labor
    —————————————-

    Good news! I hope the outcomes will be:

    1. That the Greens’ national leader is selected by a national vote in which federal parliamentarians get 50% (or a bit less) of the vote and all Greens members get the rest.

    2. That the Greens do not enter into formal coalition agreements with minority Labor governments and do not accept ministries in minority Labor governments.

    The Greens must retain their distinctive identity and avoid being tarnished by the ALP’s neoliberal flimflam.

    Any minority ALP government must be compelled to earn Greens votes for every piece of legislation that it wants to pass.

    If and when the ALP becomes a genuinely progressive party, the Greens should revisit the issue.

    But for now, the Greens would be well-advised to keep their distance from the ALP. The best thing that the Greens can do for the ALP is to keep them on their toes. The Greens’ attitude towards the ALP should be “Trust, but verify.” The ALP cannot truly be trusted as a force for progressive good at the moment. Perhaps that will change in the future.

    Completely agree and I voted accordingly.

  23. Apparently Shaun Micallef has admitted that he can be funny for about 5 minutes a week. it’s a pity they don’t just show those 5 minutes…

  24. “The ABC understands he is also known as Hassan Ali and Hassan Khalif, and recently moved from his family’s Werribee home because of problems with substance abuse.”

    I’m not positive but seem to recall substance abuse or psychological problems being associated with previous ‘terrorist’ incidents. It seems to happen on the extreme far right as well. Perhaps a combination of indoctrination and and an unstable personality can combine to lead to acts of violence.

  25. Trump’s New Attorney General Is Under FBI Criminal Investigation

    Trump’s installed Attorney General Mark Whitaker is under criminal FBI investigation for scamming millions of dollars from customers in an invention promotion scheme.

    According to The Wall Street Journal:

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation is conducting a criminal investigation of a Florida company accused of scamming millions from customers during the period that Matthew Whitaker, the acting U.S. attorney general, served as a paid advisory-board member, according to an alleged victim who was contacted by the FBI and other people familiar with the matter.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/11/09/trumps-new-attorney-general-fbi-investigation.html

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    Yeah, that’s right. Donald Trump, who’s the subject of two criminal investigations just appointed an actin’ Attorney General who’s under, surprise, surprise, a criminal investigation.

    Looks like all the crooks are either in jail or the Trump administration.

  26. citizen

    A confirmation that drugs should be treated as a medical problem. Then you don’t create disassociation from society which provides the fertile recruiting ground for terror organisations.

    Plus we know at least some of the money from the illegal drug business funds terror.

  27. Prof. Higgins @ #817 Saturday, November 10th, 2018 – 8:10 am

    Breaking! 🙂 MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki reports that Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has just doubled her lead to over 20,000 after the announcement that 80,000+ votes have now been officially added to the Arizona Senate race tally.

    I was reading this morning that the count in Arizona is going so slowly because in one county they have 1980s era computers that allow only 75,000 votes per day to be counted.

  28. FYI, it has been 28 years since the Democratic Party won a Senate election in Arizona, the bastion of two long-serving Republican Senators who lost Presidential elections: Barry Goldwater and the guy who replaced him, John McCain.

  29. Prof Higgins

    Yep. Going left (yes Bernie Sanders factions including the young candidate from New York was used by the GOP nationwide as a boogeyman) has not hurt the Democrats as long as they have good candidates.

  30. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 11:13 am
    Nicholas

    Labor cannot be trusted….

    There, in a single phrase, is the essence of the G campaign. The Gs are an anti- Labor voice. They are preparing themselves and their supporters to obstruct and defeat Labor. The Gs, as with the LNP, are Labors foes….in the own words.

  31. Fess,
    Orange County in So. California (where my youth was misspent) has a high-tech computer chip, super efficient ballot counting operation. The counting for Republican Dana Rohrabacher’s demise is exactly as slow as Arizona’s counting because of the regulation allowing the posting of absentee ballots on Election Day. Of course, this is no different than the recent agony of waiting for the A.E.C. to declare Kerryn Phelps victory.

  32. I recently received an invite to a “listening post” by a local Liberal; I laughed and threw it in the recycling. They’ve been as deaf as a post to voter concerns for five years.

    It was at a local hipster coffee shop/cafe. It’s nice enough; DW and I had breakfast there once. The business card with a QR code that links to a web page explaining the coffee blend to you was a bit OTT.


    (Banksy)

  33. Briefly

    Its simple.

    Labor: You can’t trust the Greens
    Greens: You can’t trust Labor.

    Seems to be a consensus so I don’t know why you are bothering with that comment

  36. briefly

    However when it comes to governing the Greens pick Labor more than the LNP when it falls to them to supply confidence to a government where VOTERS choose a minority parliament.

    Pretty clear the Greens are less an enemy than the LNP for Labor.

  37. guytaur, the point is the Gs misrepresent themselves. They purport to be Labor-positive. They’re not. The hope to destroy Labor. No-one should ever forget this. They are as deeply committed to the destruction of Labor as are the LNP.

  39. briefly,

    It says a great deal about your take on democratic representation that it’s anathema to you for a non-ALP political party, with its own policy platform, to evaluate policies/bills tabled in parliament on their individual merits.

  40. guytaur, you must have missed the post by N and P. The Gs are preparing to establish themselves as an Opposition Party when Labor form government. They are formulating their plan, the purpose of which will be to defeat Labor. This is totally clear.

  42. Guytaur,
    The successful campaign conducted by an organisation funded by billionaire what’s-his-name to register a significantly higher number of younger voters has resulted in the highest turnout percentage for the 18 to 29 years age group since the voting age was lowered to 18 a half century ago. Obviously, a huge factor in close contests.

    As for Australia’s young folks, I’m worried that some media outlets have reported a significant percentage of this age cohort are registration dodgers. If any Pollbludger can enlighten me, that would be much appreciated.

  43. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, November 10, 2018 at 11:34 am
    briefly,

    It says a great deal about your take on democratic representation that it’s anathema to you for a non-ALP political party, with its own policy platform, to evaluate policies/bills tabled in parliament on their individual merits.

    This is crap.

    The Gs are quite welcome to do whatever they like. I think it’s a very healthy development that the Gs have come clean. They are now saying they are not Labor-aligned. This is the truth of the matter. I’ve been asserting this for several years. They are now declaring it themselves. The Gs are disclosing their real nature. They are an anti-Labor voice. They are in every respect an anti-Labor force. Labor voters – and Green voters too – will know where the Gs stand. I approve.

  45. guytaur….it’s been clear to me for a very long time that the Gs are not at all allied to Labor. But they have been pretending they are Labor-positive. This is false. They’re not. They are hostile to Labor. At last they have revealed themselves. This is good news for Labor. Labor remain the only party that can deliver a reformist, modernist, competent and reliable majority. The rest are just pretenders.

  47. I’ve been asserting this for several years. They are now declaring it themselves. The Gs are disclosing the real nature. They are an anti-Labor voice. They are in every respect an anti-Labor force.
    __________________________________
    Yes that’s factually true, the Greens seek to displace the ALP where possible and hold the rest accountable to progressive policies. But I don’t think the Greens believe they will displace the ALP as the major left of centre party. That would be impossible.

  49. The man killed in Friday’s Melbourne terror attack has been identified as a co owner of iconic Melbourne restaurant, Pellegrini’s Espresso Bar.

    Sisto Malaspina was the man fatally stabbed by Hassan Khalif Shire Ali on Bourke Street. The cafe has closed and chaplains are comforting staff and patrons.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/police-execute-search-raids-and-speak-to-bourke-street-attacker-hassan-khalif-shire-ali-s-wife-20181110-p50f77.html

  50. Guytaur

    There was a few Dems running on further left than the party line that didnt win. Its not a clear cut argument. Ocassio-Cortez would always win her seat as the Dem candidate and its not a swinging one. The Dem candidate for Idaho governor was very left wing and didnt win, as was the Dem in the Nebraska (2nd? I think). Kevin De Leon didnt beat Feinstein in the California senate race as well.

    On another point there is quite a few Dems who have stated they wont vote for Nancy Pelosi as House leader (but they are probs less than 40, and who else to the Dems have?)

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