BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor

A further move against the Coalition on BludgerTrack leaves them looking hardly better than in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s demise.

First up, please note the posts before this one on the Victorian election campaign and the resignation of Luke Foley.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the only poll of the week, from Essential Research, which followed Newspoll in recording a movement in favour of Labor from 53-47 to 54-46. Labor is accordingly up by 0.6% in the aggregate’s two-party preferred reading, and have made gains of one apiece on the seat projection in Victoria and South Australia. Essential Research’s leadership ratings are also in the mix, but they haven’t made much difference. Full details through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,767 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.2-45.8 to Labor”

  1. “It would be disgraceful if anyone attempts to politicise this”

    It was disgraceful when Howard politicicised the Tampa.
    It was disgraceful when Trump politicised the ‘Caravan’.
    It was disgraceful when Dutton politicised “African Gangs”.
    It was disgraceful when Abbott blocked the Malaysia Solution to ensure the boats kept coming.

    And the list goes on.

    It didn’t stop them from doing it.

  2. The attacker was known to ASIO because at least 1 relative is in the slammer on terrorism charges.
    Do we lock up known associates because they are associates?
    How did the family get into the country?
    Please lets not have more virtue signalling with “I’ll ride with you”

  3. OC

    I would think the only people wanting to lock up the associates of criminals and their associates would be the Victorian liberals and their fellow travelers in the media.

    But only if they are of African descent.

    Associates of criminals of Mediterranean descent are great dinner companions.

  4. Not surprised Matthew Guy is trying to make mileage out of the incident. I’m actually surprised it took him this long. The man is a maggot.

  5. And in Lib-Lab same same news 😉 we have the NSW Liberals, who shot themselves in the foot today just so Labor wouldn’t feel lonely:

    A peace deal brokered by NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to move Treasurer Dominic Perrottet to a new seat is on the rocks, with Liberal Party members rejecting an attempt to shift the current Epping MP, Damien Tudehope, to the Upper House.

    Moderate and Right faction members, who backed Ms Berejiklian’s deal, were fuming on Friday night after Mr Tudehope lost his preselection 60 votes to 58 despite not having an opponent.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nasty-liberal-preselection-battle-enters-new-phase-as-berejiklian-peace-deal-rejected-20181109-p50f6i.html

    😆

  6. The Bourke St terrorist was obviously known to both State and Federal authorities. Guy will try to paint this as as a lornorder issue. If he was smart hed join with Andrews and condemn the attack. But he’s not and desperate and will pile into the lornorder issue and African gangs. He understimates the Victorian community

  7. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/11/09/bludgertrack-54-2-45-8-labor/comment-page-13/#comment-2999062

    Locking people up for associating with people who commit crimes, without any evidence of other any crime having been committed is a recipe for disaster. Political internment is a policy of last resort.

    I suspect that having family in prison on terrorism charges is severely detrimental to a visa application and that means any family got here before the charges were in the pipeline.

    I`ll ride with you is a practical anti-bigotry measure, not just some political display. It helps to protect innocent people from attacks (verbal and physical) by ignorant people.

  8. To any fellow South Sudenese community members on the blog …from Melbourne, hang in there, most sane Australians admire you, admire your forebearance and welcome you with open arms.

  9. Surely the question should be put to the Commonwealth Minister for Immigration as to why he lets religious fanatics (of any religion) into the country?

  10. If he was smart hed join with Andrews and condemn the attack. But he’s not and desperate and will pile into the lornorder issue and African gangs.

    The Lobster Mobster sinks even further in my estimation.

    Please Victorian PBers, tell me this creepy moron will be soundly rejected by the electorate!

  11. Bree…….If the person responsible was known to federal intelligence or federal police ( ASIO etc ) than Scott Morrison as PM and head of the Aust Govt has some very serious questions to answer about the apparent lack of safety of Australian citizens.
    What did the govt know about this person and when did they know it.?

  12. GG
    I think bringing back Sean Marsh gave the team that added boost of confidence they needed. If Mitch plays as well, we will beat India and regain our rightful place as the number one cricket nation.

    I loved the way Warne commented about Warner saying he obviously would get straight back in the team once 12 months were up. Warney just wanted to know who our other opener would be.

  13. Diogenes @ #627 Friday, November 9th, 2018 – 10:52 pm

    GG
    I think bringing back Sean Marsh gave the team that added boost of confidence they needed. If Mitch plays as well, we will beat India and regain our rightful place as the number one cricket nation.

    I loved the way Warne commented about Warner saying he obviously would get straight back in the team once 12 months were up. Warney just wanted to know who our other opener would be.

    Nothing to see here. What could possibly go wrong.

    It’s well known that selecting a 35 year old with an almost average record and rounding it out with a highly aggressive pacifist is the future for Australian Cricket.

  14. Confessions says:
    Friday, November 9, 2018 at 10:35 pm
    If he was smart hed join with Andrews and condemn the attack. But he’s not and desperate and will pile into the lornorder issue and African gangs.

    The Lobster Mobster sinks even further in my estimation.

    Please Victorian PBers, tell me this creepy moron will be soundly rejected by the electorate!

    Fess

    ‘Creepy moron’ is a very apt description of him. If I posted here what I say about him in private I’d be banned instantly from the site. I despise him with a passion. Even the Liberals must have better quality people than him to choose from.

    I think Labor will win this election and if they do it will almost certainly be the end of Guy for good. The Liberals won’t give him another chance with all the baggage he is carrying. This is make or break for him and he knows it.

  15. I only scan the current page – but note a reference to Guy attempting to gain traction over the events in Melbourne today

    You would wish that ALL MP’s stand in unison against acts of terrorism

    Full stop

    The reason is that we as a community rely on the expertise and integrity of those Public Servants charged with disrupting and apprehending anyone with such intent – and that our public representatives show confidence and support

    If that is not the agenda, where does that leave us?

    We have the problem that until an illegal action is evidenced no action can be taken – and what we have seen particularly under a Coalition Government is the Laws amended and amended and amended – including as a response to needles in strawberries (where did that go?)

    Unfortunately we have people in our society who are so disposed to illegal activities – for a raft of reasons

    And we are no different from elsewhere – look at America under Trump and who and why the perpetrators are

    Instead of making a song and a dance and looking for party political advantage the Nation needs to stand together

    And that is not to say we do not review and review and review – including now after this murder of an innocent bystander

    Those reviews need to be effective – not just grandstanding

    That Guy has (apparently) intervened as he has is no surprise to me

    It is consistent of my view of his shallowness and lack of integrity – someone whose agenda is self interest and who will do and say whatever hence my resignation from a body with which Guy looked to engraciate and which was responded to by that body leading to resignations

    Fawning over a person because they are the Liberal Party leader and my reading of the motives of Guy, looking to be feted to stoke his ego, saw resignations including mine

    He is a weasel not to be trusted

    And that is his record

  16. More on Sarina Russo. My younger brother was forced to sign up to her spiv ‘business’ whilst unemployed and he put it beautifully when he said, “check it out, the ultimate in Neo -liberalism, turning the unemployed into a commodity.” How about sending the exploitative wipe off to a re education camp Boer, is that a better fit for your bourgeois sensibilities?

  17. @ Confessions

    From last night, all of Bill Shortens town Hall’s are “broadcast”on Facebook live. They are also there to watch afterwards.

  18. Also from last night, someone asked did Sky News cover all of the Town Halls.

    I’ve been to three, and I’m pretty sure this was the only one covered by them. It may have been because Shorten announced federal support for a new pool in Ellenbrook.

  19. GG
    It was mentioned in a crime book I’m reading. I looked it up and it’s true. I have no idea why 1.5 M Japanese went to Brazil in the early twentieth century though.

  20. But IS says one of its fighters carried out the knife attack, although the group’s Amaq news website provided no evidence for the claim.

    “The one who executed the ramming and stabbing operation in Melbourne (..) is one of the fighters of the Islamic State and he executed the operation in response to (a call) to target the citizens of the coalition,” Amaq.

  21. Diogenes @ #649 Saturday, November 10th, 2018 – 12:18 am

    But IS says one of its fighters carried out the knife attack, although the group’s Amaq news website provided no evidence for the claim.

    “The one who executed the ramming and stabbing operation in Melbourne (..) is one of the fighters of the Islamic State and he executed the operation in response to (a call) to target the citizens of the coalition,” Amaq.

    Every morning there is this thing called the Sun which I put up there every day so you can exist.

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