As the big day dawns (if that’s the right way to put it, taking time differences into account), here is a thread for discussion of the US mid-terms – and a piece I wrote for Crikey yesterday that proved surplus to their requirements. I will possibly supplement this post with live coverage tomorrow, depending on how I go. Also find at the bottom of the post a guide to when polls close, repasted from Adrian Beaumont’s previous post.
On the eve of America’s mid-term elections, all signs point to a dramatic upsurge in turnout compared with four years ago – something that would ordinarily be seen as a sign of robust democratic good health. However, the last few years of American politics have made a mockery of the word “ordinarily”, and this circumstance is no exception.
The high pitch of interest can instead be seen as a symptom of the dangerous polarisation that increasingly defines American society – one effect of which has been to raise the stakes as Republicans and Democrats vie for control of Congress. Unhappily for liberal America, the dice are loaded against the Democrats tomorrow, for reasons fair and foul.
Among the latter are the efforts of state Republicans to test the limits of what courts will allow in limiting the franchise and placing obstacles before pro-Democratic constituencies in the name of fighting “voter fraud”.
Other problems for the Democrats are more intractable – such as the allocation of two Senate seats per state, an incontrovertible constitutional reality that privileges conservative rural and small town America over the liberal metropolises. This is illustrated by two of the states with seats up for election tomorrow: Wyoming, the least populous in the union (less than 580,000), and a Republican lock; and California, the most populous (nearly 40 million), and a similarly sure bet for the Democrats.
The other difficulty for the Democrats in the Senate is that the seats up for election, accounting for around a third of the total, are mostly those whose six-year terms began in 2012. That was the year of Barack Obama’s re-election, and thus of strong performance by the Democrats, in contrast to the drafts of Senators elected in the 2014 mid-terms and in 2016. This leaves the Democrats and their independent allies defending 26 seats against just nine held by Republicans, from which they need a net gain of two to boost their representation from 49 to a bare working majority of 51.
In the House of Representatives, the Democrats are handicapped by dramatically unfavourable boundaries, owing to a combination of bad luck and bad design. The first of these refers to over-concentration of Democratic support in big cities, where its members enjoy wastefully large majorities. The second involves the distinctively American blight of gerrymandering, of which there has been an outbreak since Republicans seized state legislatures as part of their mid-term sweep in 2010.
Such are the challenges the Democrats face tomorrow, at elections in which they are sure to do well by normal standards – but in which normal standards are not the ones by which they will be judged.
Democratic Senate incumbents are favoured in the states where presidential elections are usually decided, including the mid-west rust belt states that famously tipped the balance to Trump: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. However, they must repeat seemingly unlikely victories from 2012 merely to break even, in such unpromising states as West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana.
If a path to a Democratic majority exists, it most likely runs through the tricky terrain of Tennessee and Texas – the later presenting the most intriguing contest of the election, with Republican heavyweight Ted Cruz only slightly favoured to hold out against Democratic upstart Beto O’Rourke.
The House, being freshly elected in its entirety every two years, is greatly more promising for them, despite a consensus that their national vote will need to be fully 7% higher than the Republicans if they are to score a majority. Forecasting models suggest they are more likely to make it than not, partly reflecting the decisiveness of suburbia and the city fringes – places where the Republicans are vulnerable to the allergic reaction to Trump among better educated voters, female ones in particular.
As ever, everything depends on the demographic balance of turnout, and here the Democrats are encouraged by signs that the younger generation is at last shaking off its apathy. However, they will also know from bitter experience how elusive pre-election portents can prove when the scores start to go on the board.
Poll closing times
All times listed here are Wednesday November 7 AEDT. Some states straddle two time zones. In this case, networks will not call a state, and exit polls will not be officially released, until all polls in the state are closed. I will concentrate on poll closing times for the key Senate races below. Source: The Green Papers.
10am: Indiana Senate, eastern zone. Most of Indiana is in this zone, while a small part closes at 11am.
11am: Florida Senate, eastern, and Virginia. The part of Florida that closes at 11am is relatively Democratic-friendly. The deeply conservative “panhandle” closes at noon, and will assist Republicans. Several House races in both Virginia and Florida are contested.
11:30am: West Virginia Senate, where Democrat Joe Manchin is expected to win in a state that vote for Trump by a crushing 42 points.
12noon: Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan (eastern) and Tennessee, Missouri and Texas (eastern) Senate. New Jersey, Illinois, Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania have many contested House seats. Most of Michigan and Texas are in the eastern zone. Republicans are a long shot in New Jersey Senate, and Democrats are a long shot in Tennessee and Texas Senate. Missouri Senate is expected to be close.
1pm: New York, Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin and Arizona Senate; many House races are contested in these states, and the Arizona Senate is close.
2pm: Nevada and North Dakota (eastern) Senate. Republicans are favoured to gain North Dakota, while Nevada is expected to be close. Polls in the trailing part of North Dakota close at 3pm.
3pm: California and Washington State, where many House seats are contested.
Democrat Evers regains the lead over Scott Walker in Wisconsin governor race
Based on outstanding votes and key county swings, 538 seem bullish on Dem chances in AZ and NV although the R’s currently lead both
They are 50/50 on Tester’s chances in MT
Also, importantly, Democratic Party has flipped the governors in extremely important states, particularly in the Midwest. My new California governor is potential Veep candidate, Gavin Newsome, who served as Lt. Governor with Jerry Brown.
Fun fact: Gavin Newsome was once married to Donald Trump Jnr’s current girlfriend.
Given how close the Florida Senate race turned out, it’s significant that a proposition passed which returns voting rights to over a million felons who have finished serving their sentences.
With the senate results, this is not a massive repudiation of Donald Trump. This gives him massive leverage to make wall to wall reactionary nominations to all the federal and Supreme Court vacancies and an effective veto vote on any trial post an impeachment.
Further, I think he’ll get out his 28% base at the next election (plus quite a big return of the ‘never Trump’ republicans, libertarians, ‘Reagan democrats’ And the like).
Fickle and Feckless progressives will march, they will whine and whinge, but they won’t do the one thing that could psipossibly turn this around in 2020 – vote democrat.
Fess,
You are a veritable fountain of information! The mind boggles! 🙂
This is NOT a convincing ‘win’ for the Democrats.
Pity help the US in 2020. I think Trump has a real chance for a second term (apart from impeachment and other impediments)
Just caught up with the latest. That the Republicans won so many Senate seats off the Democratic is a bit worrying, I have to say.
No, it doesn’t make much of a difference to how things will play out in the next two years, but the implications for future elections makes me nervous. If an incoming Democrat president can win both houses as well, they are going to run into all the same roadblocks that Obama constantly did. And the fact that the Dems only managed to muster this much support after two solid years of President Donald Trump makes me wonder just how strong the chances are of there even being an incoming Democratic president to face such roadblocks in two years.
Not quite. The Dems were too chicken to ditch the filibuster in the Senate; the Republicans have effectively nuked it now, so if the Dems win a majority in the Senate they will be able to get their nominations confirmed where they had tied their own hands previously.
The Senate would require a 2/3 majority to convict Trump, so this election was irrelevant for the impeachment process. I doubt Pelosi will waste time on impeachment articles unless Trump is indicted by Mueller.
Trump will be an asset for the Democratic Party again in 2020, and there’s no point giving Pence a head start. In any case, the presidential nomination debates are just a half year away, so the mainstream media attention will be heavily focused on the Democratic Party’s nominees.
Democrat Evers has blown out to a 30K (1.2%) lead over Scott Walker in the Wisconsin governor race with 99% reporting
So, with the election over…enter daS Mueller???
Mr Trump…would you like some Maccas BBQ sauce with that indictment?? 🙂
Whoa – Democrat Rosen out to a 7.2% lead over Heller in NV Senate with 73% reporting 🙂
The interpretation by some that the gains by the Republicans in the Senate is some kind of ‘victory’ while the Democrats ‘loss’, is some kind of ‘defeat’, is really stretching a point.
Better to pose what the reaction would have been if the Senate had more or less held its own but the Democrats had not taken the Reps…….?
There would have been crowing so loud from Trump Tower, we could have heard it without electronic amplification here in Oz, just as the tears of frustration and rage from the Democrats would have been as equally audible.
It is a pain that the Republicans have strengthened their hand in the Upper House, but set against the catastrophe of a Democrat loss in the Lower House, I know which one I would prefer at this time – 2020 or not.
Two years is a very long time in politics and apart from Trump’s rusted-ons, he has been called. He can still do immense damage to the body-politic in the US, but he can still be made a One Term Wonder (Disaster) provided the Democrats can find the right candidate and policies to match.
Jackol:
That’s a good point – I had forgotten all about this.
Ray:
Any further updates from Georgia?
538
Get on the Amy train!
Ray,
Turfing out iniquitous Gov. Walker in Wisconsin would be one of the sweetest Democratic Party victories of the election.
Fess,
Georgia governorship has been conceded by the Democratic Party, but it was a gallant challenge in a Confederate state.
Confessions
I’ve seen no tweets on Georgia, but with 99% in the Repub is at 50.8% so I think he’s over the line there from what I can see
“The Senate would require a 2/3 majority to convict Trump, so this election was irrelevant for the impeachment process. ”
Not true – if democrat gains in the senate matched (or at least trended in the same direction) gains in the house, then depending on how egregious the misconduct was in any impeachment indictment there would have been tremendous pressure on those ‘blue republicans’ (republican senators from traditionally democrat leaning states and who up for re-election in either 2020 or 2022) to flip on Trump. Not now I suspect: they’ll double down and realise that Donald could bring out the white rural uneducated base – even in their neck of the woods – in sufficient numbers to hold on. They won’t flip on Trump now.
Re Ballot results
Yes, North “Voter Suppression Central” Carolina voted to institute a voter-ID law. They ALSO voted, by lopsided margins, AGAINST initiatives to allow the (GOP-majority) legislature to stack the courts and to elect a Democrat (and civil rights advocate) to the State Supreme Court, giving Team Blue a 5-2 partisan advantage in the highest court in North Carolina…and leading to almost certain judicial action against NC’s grossly-gerrymandered maps.
Damn I was hoping Abrams could pull it off.
I wonder if Stacy Abrams would be interested in being the Democrat’s 2020 Senate candidate for Georgia?
I wonder if Stacy Abrams would be interested in being the Democrat’s 2020 Senate candidate for Georgia?
Matt
Excellent news from NC those ballot measures
Beto’s run in Texas has fallen short, but must surely have set him up for something in the future.
It’s not just that he’s knocked over 5% off Cruz’s vote, but that he’s picked up almost 8% on the Democrat vote in 12. The 3rd party vote has collapsed to <1% and it's all gone to O'Rourke. That's a pretty solid campaign even if it's come up short.
The 2020 Senate elections are almost completely unpredictable at this distance. There are conflicting starting points. Republicans have 22 seats up for re-election, compared to just 12 for the Democrats. However very few** of the incumbents are at risk, on face value (this can of course change dramatically in the intervening two years). The best- and worst-case outcomes after the 2018 election concludes with the remaining doubtful contests seem to be 53-47 and 56-44.
Provided the Republicans can be restricted to 53 or 54 this time, a confluence of favourable circumstances could see a Democrat majority after 2020, but of course that requires an awful lot of independent elements to work in their favour.
** on the basis of 538’s calculation of partisan lean, at most 5 Republican-held seats and 7 for the Democrats seem reasonably competitive, which of course can change in the kind of volatile contemporary political world.
Confessions @ #451 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 6:03 pm
I think she needs glasses.
I hope the Dems get a candidate more likely to win than Biden, Warren or Sanders.
As an American voter who worked a couple of national USA elections as well as a a dozen Australian elections. I offer my experience-based analyses to Pollbludgers, but never engage in argumentation in any online forum.
This election has gone even better for the Democratic Party than I had expected in both houses of Congress and the governorships. It has increased female and minority representation in the House of Reps to historically high levels. The House oversight committees Democratic Chairs are prepared to hit the ground running in January with subpoenas for documents and witnesses, and they will prevent Mueller from being fired by Trump.
Diogenes @ #477 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 6:40 pm
Beto O’Rourke?
Prof. Higgins,
First time for Muslim, Somali and Native American women to the House! That can only be a good thing.
Amy!
Dio,
The Democratic Party nominee is going to be one of their relatively young cohort. In California alone, there’s Senator Kamala Harris and Rep. Eric Swalwell and Governor Gavin Newsome. I’m eagerly anticipating the nomination debates commencing next year!
A late change in voting sees Dems win Texas 23.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-house-district-23
Prof. Higgins @ #479 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 6:10 pm
Your comments are very valuable, as you can compare the two systems by direct experience.
Please keep it coming. 🙂
So, if Mueller drops a whole lot of stuff in the courts over the next few days before Trump can sack Sessions & Rosenstein & get a friendly, subservient AG in place; then that should set us up for the rest of Trump’s Presidency.
C@tmomma,
My university roommate, a national champion debater, was the founding director of the Native American Museum on the Washington D. C. Mall. I got real salty eyed when I saw MSNBC reporting this will be the first Native American woman ever to serve in Congress.
Prof
That’s what I hope. One of the young ones. Harris esp.
Nevada looking ok to provide a bit of a bright spot for the Dems. That might keep the loses to a net 2 if Montana and Arizona can squeak home. That would probably bring the Senate result back to a pass and leave a bit of chance of flipping in 2020.
Agree this was a really tough senate electoral map for the Dems… but with a nationwide swing to them of 8-10% in the house, to go this far backwards in the Senate at the same time is really painful.
Winning 6-7 Senate seats can be done. The Repubs managed to take a 60-40 dem house to a 55-45 repub house in two mid-term elections (2010 and 2014 – 2012 held roughly steady due to an Obama turnout presidential cycle).
The turnout this year exceeded all expectations @ 114m, a full-third up from the last midterms – and the Dems with that and a big funding advantage still went backwards in the Senate. That is really concerning. In 2016 we had a presidential turnout and it was only enough to win 3 seats back with a map where obviously Hilary was expected to win but the Dems were expected to take back the senate. Not taking the senate proved a horror (2 supreme court judges, robbery tax cuts, somehow just avoided an Obamacare repeal with 3 republicans flipping).
Even with a presidential turnout in 2020 and more repubs up for reelection, its tough for the Dems to wave gain senate seats… this because small states are overrepresented with 2 senators each, and most of these are solid Red.
It means every chance they get, Dems have to throw the kitchen sink to win whatever they can. And they need disproportionate swings to pull it off. Happened in 2006-8 where there was an Iraq debacle and GFC, but it doesnt look like the Trump shitshow absent some crisis is going to do it (red states seem to have few problems with him).
Even banking a big anti-trump presidential swing in 2020 that may turn midwestern states like PA, OH, Mich, WI, Iowa (where Hilary hosed 2016) to the Dems in the electoral college… this isnt enough to regain a material number of senate seats of itself. 2-3 seats yes, 5-6 becomes really hard – hence why Nate Silver is talking about the senate being out of reach in 2020 for this reason if the Repubs go into it with a decent majority.
Its why its considered massively important to remain in “striking distance” to make it as doable as possible given these real impediments. Right now Repubs at 53 and barely ahead in Montana & Arizona, with the Dems mercifully having taken Nevada. But even 55 is really tough.
In 2022, the 2016 guys come up for reelection – but in a midterm cycle where Dem turnout is historically low, so i dont place a lot of confidence im major gains esp if a Dem is president.
So 2020 is a big one. Rosen, Tester and Sinema could prove to be totally unsung heroes that kept the Repubs to 53 and gave the party a chance. I think the latter two are roughies, which means 55.
In 2020 winning the presidency is easier than winning the senate. This Florida referendum restoring voting rights to 1m felons is a huge result that could swing Florida back to the Dems in the electoral college. But i’m pretty sure Rubio won his seat in 2016 therefore nothing in the senate up for grabs at the same time.
The Dems need a candidate that midwestern Dems turn out for and in competitive senate states (a few) moderate Repubs are ok enough to vote downticket Dem as well, and where (a few) rabid Repubs are ok to stay at home because it isnt life or death to them. When i hear names like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Karmala Harris this makes me very nervous – the more polarising the candidate the harder it is. The best candidate is a Biden-type (not he himself as he is bloody 80 yrs old)… can anyone point to anyone in the running like this? I’m not saying the polarising candidates cant win the presidency, but i dont think they will be able to get a senate that will pass anything they want to do and will take it further backwards in 2022 when the repubs who hate them turn out en masse to pulverise them in the midterms. Symbolic presidencies are better than continuing with Trump, sure, but the country is crying out for important reforms that these guys will battle to get passed.
c@T
Someone we have not heard of? I do not know anything much about USA politics but it will have to be a male, not necessarily white, positive with women and not presenting to radical a platform. A female running mate would be good. As much as I would like a woman to defeat Trump, I just do not think the USA is ready for a female President, just like Australia wasn’t ready and honourable enough to have a female Prime Minister. NZ, on the other hand, are streets ahead of both.
That should, of course, read “If an incoming Democrat president can’t win both houses as well” in my post at 6:07 pm.
A late change in voting sees Dems win Texas 23.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-house-district-23
wowsers. Better late than never eh!
Puffy,
That’s most gracious of you to make me feel welcome here. It’s no small gift to share tonight’s Democratic Party victory with Pollbludgers. Hey, my first US election I worked against Ronald Reagan’s bid to become Governor of California, and he won easily. To sweep all the California state offices and the Senate race that was a runoff between two Democrats warms the cockles of my heart. If Dana Rohrabacher loses his seat in the So. California town where I went to high school, that would be the cherry on the proverbial. 🙂
Prof H
That is also my sense of today – it has been really positive for the Dems.
I think we were all hoping, despite the opinion polls, that Trump would get trounced. As Dio said, it would be nice, just once, to log into the blog and find that the left had done unexpectedly well.
And I was really hoping, that Trump, who is beyond horrible and deplorable, would have been given an ass-whooping. But sadly no.
The senate results are also not that surprising. The same political messages that increase the Dem vote in the house, also increase the republican vote in the senate, because of the demographic kew of the senate to “fly-over” states.
Last wrap on the Senate before I go to bed 🙂
51-44 to the Repubs on called races
Outstanding races
Mississippi runoff – almost certain R win as I see it
Florida – Scott (R) ahead 0.6% and reports the incumbent Dem has conceded
Montana – Rosendale (R) 1.1% ahead and 538 says Dem incumbent Tester is “fighting for his political life”
Nevada – Rosen (D) ahead 5.8% and 538 very bullish on D chances here
Arizona – McSally (R) ahead 1.5% but 538 somewhat bullish here also on D chances
Looks like 54-46 then if the last two 538 leans are correct
booleanbach @ #482 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 5:54 pm
I wonder Bool
That in fact was a pretty awful result for the Democrats. It looks as if the Senate is going to be an extraordinary 54/46.
Yes they won the house but NOT by such a massive majority that they can embark on too much controversial stuff. If they were wise they would concentrate on policy NOT chase Trump. Impeachment is now off the agenda since the Senate was not won and all the focus Should be on winning 2020. Maybe Trump will be the nominee but the last thing they NOW need is for Trump to quit since that makes their opponent Pence who could run in 2020 and 2024, assuming he takes over after Jan 20.
The Dems need a candidate that midwestern Dems turn out for and in competitive senate states (a few) moderate Repubs are ok enough to vote downticket Dem as well, and where (a few) rabid Repubs are ok to stay at home because it isnt life or death to them. When i hear names like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Karmala Harris this makes me very nervous – the more polarising the candidate the harder it is. The best candidate is a Biden-type (not he himself as he is bloody 80 yrs old)… can anyone point to anyone in the running like this? I’m not saying the polarising candidates cant win the presidency, but i dont think they will be able to get a senate that will pass anything they want to do and will take it further backwards in 2022 when the repubs who hate them turn out en masse to pulverise them in the midterms. Symbolic presidencies are better than continuing with Trump, sure, but the country is crying out for important reforms that these guys will battle to get passed.
You’re obviously vastly better informed than me on this, but this is pretty much 100% what I reckon.