US mid-terms minus zero days

One last overview of the US mid-terms situation, and a thread for discussion of events as they unfold.

As the big day dawns (if that’s the right way to put it, taking time differences into account), here is a thread for discussion of the US mid-terms – and a piece I wrote for Crikey yesterday that proved surplus to their requirements. I will possibly supplement this post with live coverage tomorrow, depending on how I go. Also find at the bottom of the post a guide to when polls close, repasted from Adrian Beaumont’s previous post.

On the eve of America’s mid-term elections, all signs point to a dramatic upsurge in turnout compared with four years ago – something that would ordinarily be seen as a sign of robust democratic good health. However, the last few years of American politics have made a mockery of the word “ordinarily”, and this circumstance is no exception.

The high pitch of interest can instead be seen as a symptom of the dangerous polarisation that increasingly defines American society – one effect of which has been to raise the stakes as Republicans and Democrats vie for control of Congress. Unhappily for liberal America, the dice are loaded against the Democrats tomorrow, for reasons fair and foul.

Among the latter are the efforts of state Republicans to test the limits of what courts will allow in limiting the franchise and placing obstacles before pro-Democratic constituencies in the name of fighting “voter fraud”.

Other problems for the Democrats are more intractable – such as the allocation of two Senate seats per state, an incontrovertible constitutional reality that privileges conservative rural and small town America over the liberal metropolises. This is illustrated by two of the states with seats up for election tomorrow: Wyoming, the least populous in the union (less than 580,000), and a Republican lock; and California, the most populous (nearly 40 million), and a similarly sure bet for the Democrats.

The other difficulty for the Democrats in the Senate is that the seats up for election, accounting for around a third of the total, are mostly those whose six-year terms began in 2012. That was the year of Barack Obama’s re-election, and thus of strong performance by the Democrats, in contrast to the drafts of Senators elected in the 2014 mid-terms and in 2016. This leaves the Democrats and their independent allies defending 26 seats against just nine held by Republicans, from which they need a net gain of two to boost their representation from 49 to a bare working majority of 51.

In the House of Representatives, the Democrats are handicapped by dramatically unfavourable boundaries, owing to a combination of bad luck and bad design. The first of these refers to over-concentration of Democratic support in big cities, where its members enjoy wastefully large majorities. The second involves the distinctively American blight of gerrymandering, of which there has been an outbreak since Republicans seized state legislatures as part of their mid-term sweep in 2010.

Such are the challenges the Democrats face tomorrow, at elections in which they are sure to do well by normal standards – but in which normal standards are not the ones by which they will be judged.

Democratic Senate incumbents are favoured in the states where presidential elections are usually decided, including the mid-west rust belt states that famously tipped the balance to Trump: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. However, they must repeat seemingly unlikely victories from 2012 merely to break even, in such unpromising states as West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana.

If a path to a Democratic majority exists, it most likely runs through the tricky terrain of Tennessee and Texas – the later presenting the most intriguing contest of the election, with Republican heavyweight Ted Cruz only slightly favoured to hold out against Democratic upstart Beto O’Rourke.

The House, being freshly elected in its entirety every two years, is greatly more promising for them, despite a consensus that their national vote will need to be fully 7% higher than the Republicans if they are to score a majority. Forecasting models suggest they are more likely to make it than not, partly reflecting the decisiveness of suburbia and the city fringes – places where the Republicans are vulnerable to the allergic reaction to Trump among better educated voters, female ones in particular.

As ever, everything depends on the demographic balance of turnout, and here the Democrats are encouraged by signs that the younger generation is at last shaking off its apathy. However, they will also know from bitter experience how elusive pre-election portents can prove when the scores start to go on the board.

Poll closing times

All times listed here are Wednesday November 7 AEDT. Some states straddle two time zones. In this case, networks will not call a state, and exit polls will not be officially released, until all polls in the state are closed. I will concentrate on poll closing times for the key Senate races below. Source: The Green Papers.

10am: Indiana Senate, eastern zone. Most of Indiana is in this zone, while a small part closes at 11am.

11am: Florida Senate, eastern, and Virginia. The part of Florida that closes at 11am is relatively Democratic-friendly. The deeply conservative “panhandle” closes at noon, and will assist Republicans. Several House races in both Virginia and Florida are contested.

11:30am: West Virginia Senate, where Democrat Joe Manchin is expected to win in a state that vote for Trump by a crushing 42 points.

12noon: Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan (eastern) and Tennessee, Missouri and Texas (eastern) Senate. New Jersey, Illinois, Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania have many contested House seats. Most of Michigan and Texas are in the eastern zone. Republicans are a long shot in New Jersey Senate, and Democrats are a long shot in Tennessee and Texas Senate. Missouri Senate is expected to be close.

1pm: New York, Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin and Arizona Senate; many House races are contested in these states, and the Arizona Senate is close.

2pm: Nevada and North Dakota (eastern) Senate. Republicans are favoured to gain North Dakota, while Nevada is expected to be close. Polls in the trailing part of North Dakota close at 3pm.

3pm: California and Washington State, where many House seats are contested.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

719 comments on “US mid-terms minus zero days”

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  1. There is a sensible centre to be found on most issues: you just need the smarts to craft one. Michigan has found one on the conundrum of “voter fraud v voter disenfranchisement”:

    “DAN HOPKINS10:27 AM
    … I don’t think we necessarily need to choose between preventing voter fraud and disenfranchising voters. In Michigan in 2016, for instance, voters who arrived at the polls without ID could vote after filing an affidavit attesting to their eligibility. That provides a paper trial in the event that there are concerns about eligibility and fraud, while also making sure that legitimate voters aren’t disenfranchised.”

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2018-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner

  2. Whilst taking the house is a min must-do, i have no hi expectations for the senate though a 50-50 is not out of the question (hoping for a Murkowski or someone to be a rational swing vote in nxt 2 yrs).

    Ted Cruz losing would be too sweet, i dare to dream…

  3. What gets me really annoyed is the number of (Republicans mostly) who do not believe in democracy, but are willing to use any means fair or foul to prevent Democrat voters from casting their ballots. Just look at Georgia!! The Republican Governor gets to decide who can vote and which votes are counted; and has deleted 100,s of thousands from the roles.

  4. For quick n’ dirty real time analysis there is always Google Trends. And based on Google Trends just now, it looks like there are an awful lot of conservative people in the US.

    You can get US state by state search volumes over the last 24 hours on a desktop
    here:
    https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=now%201-H&geo=US&q=Democrat,Republican,Gop,Democratic

    Second row of charts you can look at search volumes state by state. Scroll over the map to compare the search volumes for the terms “Democrat” “republican”, “GOP” “Democratic”.

    How does this work?

    Online search behaviour is strongly associated with offline behaviour. For example, the people that search for the latest Stephen King book are likely to go on and buy that book. This is the underlying principle behind online commerce. And can be used for “predicting the present” at scale.

    You could have clearly picked Trump as the winner in 2016 using this method. Also a bunch of elections since. The caveat is of course, that electoral systems, and the logistics of actually casting a vote confound this data.

    If you’re interested, look in Google Scholar for more info about the validity of these methods. “Google trends” is probably the best term to search for.

  5. C@tmomma@7:35am
    CNN generic poll: 55-42(Dems favour)
    Gallop generic poll : 54-42(Dems favour)
    CNN poll: 7out of 10 want to send a message to Trump
    62% women favour Dems and 35% favour Republicans
    If the above numbers Translate into votes, Dems will win both House and Senate.

  6. On Marketwatch there is an article from Stiglitz

    Plus the richest man in Florida saying there will be a 15% fall in the DJIA if the Democrats win the house

    Join the dots

  7. Most of the Senate seats are Democrats up for reelection. That’s why the Senate will still be Republican. If the polls are the same in 2020 then there could be a Democrat controlled senate.

  8. Ven @ #7 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 7:49 am

    C@tmomma@7:35am
    CNN generic poll: 55-42(Dems favour)
    Gallop generic poll : 54-42(Dems favour)
    CNN poll: 7out of 10 want to send a message to Trump
    62% women favour Dems and 35% favour Republicans
    If the above numbers Translate into votes, Dems will win both House and Senate.

    Best not ignore Rasmussen which suggests Republicans 1% ahead. they were right in 2016

  9. As the Senate is progressively counted, which are possible Republican and Democrate seats that may change hands.?

    If particular States swing one way or the other, how many need to move to give a fair indication of what will happen across the nation.

    Having worked election booths here, when there is big turnout early and in prepolls, things have never gone well for the incumbents.

  10. Will the Blue Wave Overcome the Red Undertow?
    So asks Katrina vanden Heuvel
    https://www.thenation.com/article/democrats-republicans-midterms-blue-wave/

    My response – i very much doubt it.
    Even if the Dems get control of the House the Presidency & Senate will belong to Trump and the one thing they will do is keep filling all the federal legal positions as fast and far as they can with far-right Republican oriented judges. So that in the future even if the Dems get all three houses they will be stymied by the stacking going on now; and there is nothing they can do to stop it.

  11. DaretoTread

    That’s true about Rasmussen in 2016 – the final RCP average was Clinton +3.3% but Rasmussen said +2% so that’s an incredibly close spread

    The RCP generic average now is D +7.3 with Rasmussen at R +1.0, which would be a hell of a polling error
    although as we know anything is possible in the US

  12. Should be interesting to see how this goes. Despite what seems to be a last minute surge to the Democrats, I think the outcome looks most likely to remain as everyone has predicted for some time now – the Democrats claiming the House but the Republicans retaining the senate.

  13. “Having worked election booths here, when there is big turnout early and in prepolls, things have never gone well for the incumbents.”

    I hope so. 🙂 Whatever the result there will be much to analyse.

    counting underway??

    Cue “Fake Nooz!!!” and “Voter Fraud!! in 5,4,3………….

  14. From 538:

    Ig health care is an issue thats not good news for Trump.

    “JANIE VELENCIA6:20 PM
    Americans seem to have voted with health care on their minds. According to early exit polls, 41 percent said heath care is the top issue facing the country, followed by immigration (23 percent), the economy (21 percent) and gun policy (11 percent). Voters were asked about only these four issues.

    Again, this is early data and should be consumed with caution — it could change throughout the night as more votes come in.”

    They also had a link to this in post about female veterans running.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcjG2fK7kNk

    Tell yah wot. Not a high bar, but she projects as just a tad more sincere than ScoMo.

  15. Only one seat called so far – Kentucky but always a safe republican seat. However based on the swing it probably will be possible to predict Kentucky 6

  16. The Guardian’s site has one House seat retained by the Republicans in Kentucky. Annoyingly, they don’t show swings, so it’s difficult to project from that early result.

  17. It is very early days and probably the smaller rural booths counted but it would seem that Kentucky and Indiana have swung trump. However 1 district is called with 79% REPUBLICAN

  18. Millennial @ #25 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    Millennial @ #24 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:47 am

    Ante Meridian @ #22 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:44 am

    The Guardian’s site has one House seat retained by the Republicans in Kentucky. Annoyingly, they don’t show swings, so it’s difficult to project from that early result.

    Right now, it’d be a swing of 17-18 points towards the Democrat.

    To clarify, that’s for Kentucky 6.

    Is that based on Kentucky 5 or on the vote so far?

  19. Ante Meridian @ #27 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    Millenial,

    How can you tell? Is that on the Guardian’s site somewhere, or some other site?

    I am using the New York Times’s covergae, and the Kentucky seat that’s called so far is only KY-5.

    Then I just Google searched “Kentucky 5th 2016 results” and found that in 2016 there was no challenger.

  20. Whoever wrote the Guardian’s software must be a very cautious person. It’s not calling results where the incumbent has more than two thirds of the vote with more than 3 percent counted (looking at Indiana).

  21. DaretoTread @ #28 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    Millennial @ #25 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    Millennial @ #24 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:47 am

    Ante Meridian @ #22 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:44 am

    The Guardian’s site has one House seat retained by the Republicans in Kentucky. Annoyingly, they don’t show swings, so it’s difficult to project from that early result.

    Right now, it’d be a swing of 17-18 points towards the Democrat.

    To clarify, that’s for Kentucky 6.

    Is that based on Kentucky 5 or on the vote so far?

    KY-6 Congressional District. Keep in mind that this is right now very few voters counted and the count might change drastically until we get at least 33% of the vote in.

  22. I’ve just been looking at 538’s Senate Forecast – his ‘Lite’, ‘Classic’, and ‘DeLuxe’ models all have the R’s picking up one seat for a final tally of 52-48 for the R’s

    Taking the middle ‘Classic’ one he has the R’s knocking off Heitkamp in N.Dakota but losing Arizona to the D’s. He has Donnelly, Tester and Nelson holding Indiana, Montana and Florida for the D’s. He has two TossUps in Missouri (McCaskill, D incumbent) and Nevada (Heller, R incumbent) but the D’s a hair ahead in both.

    On the face of it that’s 1 D gain for a 50/50 tie if they run the table, however some of the D wins are rated only just over a 50% chance. Obviously when his model crunches the simulations/probabilities two of the D ‘wins’ don’t happen. In other words in actuality the R’s will win any 2 of the above D ‘wins’ if his model is right.

  23. Millennial @ #32 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:59 am

    DaretoTread @ #28 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:50 am

    Millennial @ #25 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:48 am

    Millennial @ #24 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:47 am

    Ante Meridian @ #22 Wednesday, November 7th, 2018 – 9:44 am

    The Guardian’s site has one House seat retained by the Republicans in Kentucky. Annoyingly, they don’t show swings, so it’s difficult to project from that early result.

    Right now, it’d be a swing of 17-18 points towards the Democrat.

    To clarify, that’s for Kentucky 6.

    Is that based on Kentucky 5 or on the vote so far?

    KY-6 Congressional District. Keep in mind that this is right now very few voters counted and the count might change drastically until we get at least 33% of the vote in.

    To demostarte this, as I was typing that post in KY-6 the count had swung from the Republican in the lead by 5pts to the Democrat in the lead by 2.

  24. Ray

    Welcome back.

    Your analysis of 538 predictions for the Senate remind me why I shy away from statistics…

    BTW, I have been following, with increasing disMay, the toils of Brexit.

  25. Indiana senate is interesting at county level, it was suggested it leans Democrats.

    Was 53R-42D in 2016 senate, currently shows as 57R-38D, but is getting closer.

    Like Aus, small rural seats favor Republicans, but bigger seats coming back with 10% ish swings towards Democrats

  26. DaretoTread says:
    Wednesday, November 7, 2018 at 11:02 am
    Yes it is looking like Ky6 may go Democrat but the Democrat senator looks in trouble – weird result.
    ———————————–

    DaretoTread there is no Senate race in Kentucky this election. Are you looking at Indiana senate race?

  27. Kentucky 6 is Amy McGrath the American military veteran who made a big splash early on.

    It’s 51 to 47 to the Republican atm after 9% counted.

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