The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.
Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.
UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.
frednk says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:20 am
briefly
In my view; even if the voters put caution aside and give labor the senate; there will be no satisfaction and they will really swing the bat when the representative election occurs.
Far from saving the furniture, they will be heaping it into a pyre and offering voters a torch and some petrol.
Shorten is making an art out of being a small target. Why campaign on contentious issues when the gov’t is going to drop election success into his lap?
Puffy
‘Maybe remote Aboriginal Communities might get a transport subsidy so their fresh good does not cost double to pay for trucking it in.’
Plus free beef.
That would lead to dramatically different closing the gap outcomes in relation to life expectancy.
I’m sure that Morrison is actively considering a half senate only election.
Every time the Coalition uses the words ‘no plans’ the media refuse to take it literally (in other words a lot of thinking but no definite determined road map) but instead actually takes it as a denial – as intended by the spinmeisters.
However, it is all largely moot because none of the cross-benchers will put up with Parliament dragging out like this. They won’t a support a minority Labor government of course (and Labor would not be interested any way) but could defeat the Government on any number of bits of legislation that would make a refusal to call an election politically impossible for Morrison.
At the very least, this talk will strengthen the interest of the cross-benchers in referring both Dutton and Crewther to the High Court, as a way of forcing the issue of an election in the next 6 months.
The Five Thirty Eight aggregate has the Democrats’ House popular vote lead at 9 points.
That’s a bit too close for comfort. The House is so gerrymandered that if that 9 point lead overstates the result by only 2 or 3 points, the Republicans could retain their majority.
Confessions says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 10:21 am
Someone asked about TV broadcast of the midterms. You can live stream CNN here:
https://www.livenewson.com/american/cnn-news-usa.html
—————————————
Thanks, Confessions, this will probably what I do tomorrow.
‘Puffytmd says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:23 am
Shorten is making an art out of being a small target. ‘
I beg to differ.
There is a major astroturf campaign happening against franking credits reform as we post, for example.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astroturfing
AE
We better give the guy credit then so people know where he is coming from and why.
https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/australian-labor-party-third-way-social-democracy
‘TPOF says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:24 am
I’m sure that Morrison is actively considering a half senate only election. ‘
He has now stated that it will not happen.
rats…
Essential primaries up and it must have been a close run thing for 55-45. Lab up 2 to 39 Coal down 2 to 36. PHON drops 1 to 6 which is picked up by others (9). Greens steady (10).
https://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
thanks rats….the LIb PV (excluding the Nats) must be back at its lows…early 30s. It can go lower. I’m hoping for a result in the 20s as the panic takes hold and they make even greater errors.
Puffytmd:
[‘Mavis Smith
There’s a lot of double negatives being used on this site today.’]
Don’t you not say?’]
There’s no way you can do nothing about this.
Boerwar @ #253 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 10:53 am
I have near to, but not direct, an experience of running of a community store. A small one has transport costs in the $200k. All meat frozen, and fresh veg once a week. Luckily there is lots of free protein about the place.
Osmond Chiu is absolutely correct to state the need for the Australian Government to intervene directly to fund a massive expansion of good quality public housing.
https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/australian-labor-party-third-way-social-democracy
I’m wondering what ScoMo will do to step up (or down), since his blokeyness is making people laugh.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-democrats-arent-certain-to-take-the-house-but-theyre-pretty-clear-favorites/
In a democracy, where freedom of choice is being exercised in a context of distorted boundaries…anything is possible.
Hopefully, this time the Democratic vote will not be split by the pop-left. That will help a lot.
I am not unopposed to the apt use of a double negative.
I wholly agree on the requirement for social investment in housing in Australia, along with reforms that take out the incentives for speculation in land and that subsidises rent-squeezing.
P
‘Luckily there is lots of free protein about the place.’
For coastal communities, yep.
Arid lands communities, nope.
Boerwar,
Every time I see mass dumped fruit and veg it makes me cry at the waste. It should be dried, canned or pulped then frozen and sent to the communities. Coleworths should pay a levy for access to our lucrative city market so remote communities can have equitable access to food.
Double negative: buy one, get one free.
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:32 am
There’s a lot of double negatives being used on this site today.
I am not unopposed to the apt use of a double negative.
I favour the positive.
Nicholas says: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:32 am
There’s a lot of double negatives being used on this site today.
I am not unopposed to the apt use of a double negative.
*****************************************************
We’ll your whole attitude won’t get you nowhere
“imacca @ #1923 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:41 pm
Could be the best chance that the RWNJobbie element have to remain relevant. Strongly preference hard right “independents” to try and stack the cross bench in the Senate with fellow travelers??
The electorate as a whole would see through that ruse in an instant.
If they pull a stunt like that they will lose both the Senate and the House. Labor will get a majority in the Senate, or so close they won’t even need the Greens. A couple of cross-benchers will do. Then come the House election they’ll be reduced to such a rump that they’ll implode thereafter. The rats will desert the ship after it hits the seabed.
It is such a bonehead fvcking stupid idea they’ll probably do it.”
🙂 I’d hope they get a dam good spanking if they do try it. They would be presenting the electorate with a scenario where they are having 2, very expensive on taxpayer funded, national elections, purley for the political purpose of the maintaining the influence of the RWNJobbies that own ScoMo’s arse and owned Turnbulls.
All depends on how some proven, politically inept nasty bastards see the numbers working out as to h gains /losses in the Senate.
If they did a HoR election first it may be a viable strategy. If they were to go a Senate election first then i think its really NOT going to work for them at all. Would be an in your face admission they expect to lose the HoR and are in desperate save the furniture mode.
Best comment yet. 😉
P
Most fruit is dumped because it is not worthwhile for farmers to harvest it, pack it, transport it and sell it. This happens on a remarkably irregular basis.
Putting in infrastructure everywhere there is a farm to harvest, process, pack and transport food waste would probably cost more than simply buying the food in the market.
I don’t know the answers here…
Nicholas says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:32 am
There’s a lot of double negatives being used on this site today.
I am not unopposed to the apt use of a double negative.
————————————-
But would you be unopposed to inapt ones?
We’ve become so inured to severe restrictions on workers’ rights that most people don’t realize that we are far behind most democratic nations on this issue.
Wage theft is not an acceptable business model.
https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/australian-labor-party-third-way-social-democracy
I see that the Neocons’ attempts to foster war with Iran is being ramped up.
I DO hope that the Coalition is not sucked into yet another endless Middle East War.
Nicholas
Step one would be to jail bosses, owners and labour hire managers on a routine basis for wage theft, conditions theft and Super theft.
Shorten’s not small targeting. He’s smart targeting. He’s painted a great big bullseye on the positions he wants the government and their running dogs to attack. He does so because he knows those positions are solid and the attackers cost themselves far more than they gain by attacking.
He’s just not interested in having those tables reversed on him. The right have spent over 5 years trying to sucker him into a war of attrition on their preferred battlefields. Bill has wisely declined the opportunity.
Win the war first. Then rebuild. You don’t win the war by throwing everything at every single battle your enemy is hoping to lure you into.
Are our forecasts so poor that we can’t predict a bumper season?
Where are agriculture advisors to regulate the growers, suggest alternative crops?
Obviously it’s all rafferty’s rules and the devil take the hindmost.
Nicholas:
I have faith in the American public to admit it made a goddam awful mistake in 2016, and besides, history’s on their side. If I’m right, we’ll start to see the unravelling of monster Trump, who, among other things, thinks he has the power to override the US Constitution by Presidential Decree, the 14th amendment reading:
“All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside.”
I predict a comfortable win for the Dems in the House; the Senate’s another matter.
Mavis Smith @ #216 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 10:55 am
Thanks for reminding us – anyone who doesn’t want their medical records online forever has only a week left to opt out … if you can! I reckon there’s a good chance the system will be inexplicably “unavailable” for long periods over the next week 🙁
He has now stated that it will not happen.
Does Morrison saying something won’t happen decrease or increase the chances of said thing happening?
Democratic socialism is becoming an increasingly important part of the Democratic Party. That is an excellent development for which Bernie Sanders deserves much credit.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/11/democratic-voters-move-leftward-range-issues/574834/
‘lizzie says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:41 am
Most fruit is dumped because it is not worthwhile for farmers to harvest it, pack it, transport it and sell it.
Are our forecasts so poor that we can’t predict a bumper season?
Where are agriculture advisors to regulate the growers, suggest alternative crops?
Obviously it’s all rafferty’s rules and the devil take the hindmost.’
There are many factors that simply cannot be controlled in the way you envisage: weather during ripening season, different weather in different growing districts, insect outbreaks, fungus outbreaks, day of the year (try selling strawberries in the week after Christmas, for example!), food fads, overseas competition, etc, etc, etc…
lizzie @ #263 Tuesday, November 6th, 2018 – 11:31 am
ScuMo is blue and white budgie smugglers? 🙂
‘ratsak says:
Tuesday, November 6, 2018 at 11:44 am
He has now stated that it will not happen.
Does Morrison saying something won’t happen decrease or increase the chances of said thing happening?’
It all depends on which relatable persona he was doing at the time.
I hope the Democrats take the House and use it to ramp up investigations into crimes and abuses of power in the Trump Administration.
A Democratic House majority should also hold hearings into perjury and sexual assault allegations against Justice Brett Kavanaugh. He needs to be discredited so heavily that he faces severe pressure to resign, or at least recuse himself from cases that involve women’s rights and such trifling matters as telling the truth under oath.
Puffy
Another impact arises from relative prices. If stone fruit, for example, are dirt cheap then people will switch from other fruits, leaving them high and dry.
The babies on the bus go ‘Wah, wah, wah
Wah wah wah
Wah wah wah’
The babies on the bus go ‘Wah, wah, wah
Wah wah wah
Wah wah wah’
The babies on the bus go ‘Wah, wah, wah’
All day lon.
Wage Theft is one of Labor’s Top 5 campaign issues for 2019.
Morrison opposes and Payne supports Victoria’s deal with China.
Yet another Cockup.
On last election prefs those primaries give the L-NP 45.3, or 45 rounded. It could be explained by calculating the TPP before rounding the primaries.
This is beyond farce…
I just went onto NBNco’s site and checked out a bunch of addresses in my town.
First of all, I live on the edge of town in an area that has recently been developed and has nearly a hundred new houses and would in the past qualified for greenfield fibre. But no such luck, I’m being offered satellite and so too are all the McMansions around me.
A few streets up there is a wholesale nursery sitting on 12 acres that originally was scheduled for FTTP.
About a year ago I checked on the NBNco site and it told me that this nursery was going to get FTTC.
Now after having talked to the NBNco comedy act (information night) and being told that the town would get a mix of FTTC and FTTN, guess what I’ve discovered?
After having checked a bunch of addresses, this is the picture you get.
The majority of the town is getting FTTC. But with no particular reason (it doesn’t suddenly jump from residential to rural) FTTC gives up, leaving 2 and a half streets with FTTN – including said nursery. After that, satellite.
Oh and btw, I checked. The wireless tower is in exactly the same place as it was for the original rollout. They haven’t reloacted it. They’ve just decided that for whatever reason, satellite will be used instead.
So, the clever people at NBNco are going to maintain a few dozen addresses on FTTN. So that copper has to remain powered. Where does it get powered from? Back at the exchange. So alongside the fibre cable for FTTC will sit a massive copper cable where only a few pairs of copper will be energised. All for 3 or 4Km.
This is beyond stupid. This is hilarious. Bring on the firing squad.
Mueller Investigation
“I’m Very Worried About Don Jr.”: Forget the Midterms—West Wing Insiders Brace for the Mueller Storm
In the run-up to the election, Rudy Giuliani was made to shut up. But now, with Trump making excuses for possibly losing the House, officials are bracing for a legal assault.
The bigger threat for Trump than losing control of Congress is Robert Mueller’s looming report. Sources say Trump advisers are girding themselves for Mueller to deliver the results of his investigation to the Justice Department as early as Wednesday, although it’s more likely he’ll wait till later this month. Sources say besides the president, the ones with the most exposure are Roger Stone and Donald Trump Jr. “I’m very worried about Don Jr.,” said another former West Wing official who testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee. The possible exposure would be that Mueller would demonstrate that Don Jr. perjured himself to investigators when he said he didn’t tell his father beforehand about the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting to gather “dirt” on Hillary Clinton.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/11/west-wing-insiders-brace-for-the-mueller-storm
Puffy
Other factors are things like fuel prices. If it is a choice between buying fruit and fuel then many people would rather spend more on petrol and, for example, less on fruit.
A possible project:-
Insensitivity training.
Who to target is the problem. 😵
Nicholas,
Glad to read you making sense on Trump now Hillary is gone. I never thought she was that bad, but that’s history now.
Once a society attains a certain level of per capita consumption of important social and consumer goods and a certain technological and productivity level, further increases in per capita consumption don’t do much for subjective wellbeing and social outcomes. In a steady state economy, economic development involves maintaining a stable population, increasing the quality of economic activity through better technology and organization and know-how, reducing per capita pollution and resource depletion, and improving social outcomes and subjective wellbeing. The economy still develops but the development does not involve increases in per capita and total consumption of real resources.
Here is a nice presentation by Phil Lawn (an Australian MMT economist who researches ecological economics) about the principles behind a steady state economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CvQHf8GweWE&index=4&list=WL&t=0s&fbclid=IwAR0qj0zQZ8LuvdEnApC_zSSlKZJ3e7Z4N34brhV_87fsyjn3MCnhnMT3MlM