Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Another turn of the polling screw against the Coalition, as formerly uncommitted respondents increasingly offer a negative view of the Prime Minister.

The fortnightly Essential poll — now appearing in Newspoll off weeks, praise be — follows Newspoll in recording Labor’s lead at 54-46, out from 53-47. Monthly personal ratings are better for Scott Morrison than Newspoll in that he remains in net positive territory, but the formerly undecided are breaking heavily against him, with his approval down two to 41% and disapproval up nine to 37%. Bill Shorten maintains his recent improving form, up five on approval to 38% and down one on disapproval to 44% – his second best result from the pollster in the past two years. However, the shift on preferred prime minister is relatively modest, with Morrison’s lead down from 42-27 to 41-29.

Other findings: 44% support Australia becoming a republic in principle, down four since May, with 32% opposed; 61% have a favourable view of Queen Elizabeth, 68% of Prince William, 70% of Prince Harry but only 33% of Prince Charles. The Guardian report is here; the full report from Essential Research, including primary votes, will be with us later today. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1028.

UPDATE: Full report from Essential Research here, and the primary vote shifts are on the high end from what you’d expect out of a one-point shift on two-party preferred: the Coalition is down two to 36%, and Labor up two to 39%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,958 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. “You might actually be right.”

    I was being ironic Rex, on the basis that you blame everything bad that happens on Bill Shorten – from the sinking of the Titanic, to the travails of the state opposition leader.

  2. Richard Marles on Sky now throwing Daniel Andrews under the bus re the China belt and road deal.

    A more useless politician you wouldn’t meet.

  3. Morrison gets out the sad violins for negative gearers.

    There’s no violin small enough to express the extent of my sadness.

    He also in a roundabout way admits that negative gearing had artificially inflated house prices.

  4. JimmyD says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 4:14 pm

    Frednk
    I’m pretty sure giving a bottom a squeeze on the wrong side is not the done thing, oven the right side is a bit over the top, but I would be surprise if it’s a crime.

    Are you for real? The allegation against Foley is a pretty clear cut case of sexual harassment, if not indecent assault, both of which are crimes.

    Umm; if you say so.

  5. Mavis Smith says: Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 4:08 pm

    PhoenixRed:

    Yes, I was thinking that too. And I’m also thinking that he’d be capable of forsaking his family

    ******************************************************

    Maybe he could forsake the ‘boys’ in the family – BUT there is NO WAY that Trump would let Kremlin Barbie Ivanka go to jail on his behalf ….. I mean he even said – “If she was not my daughter, I would be dating her” ( sic ) ……

  6. frednk @ #1604 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 4:23 pm

    JimmyD says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 4:14 pm

    Frednk
    I’m pretty sure giving a bottom a squeeze on the wrong side is not the done thing, oven the right side is a bit over the top, but I would be surprise if it’s a crime.

    Are you for real? The allegation against Foley is a pretty clear cut case of sexual harassment, if not indecent assault, both of which are crimes.

    Umm; if you say so.

    I think fred needs some PB sorority advice.

  7. On @4corners: Former MD, Michelle Guthrie speaks for the first time about her sacking and the breakdown of her relationship with the ABC Board. Former ABC Chair Justin Milne gives a frank account of the power struggle behind the scenes.— amanda meade (@meadea) November 8, 2018

  8. STEVE777 – You should read the AFR. It’s wall-to-wall whining retirees. “I planned my retirement on the basis that I could keep ripping off the tax-payer and now I might have to spend some of the $10 million in assets I have accumulated …”

  9. Darc

    Congratulations. A most erudite outline of Rush V NewsCorp.

    I particularly liked your point 12.

    ”12. Of course, it may be possible for the court to determine the case (or part of the case) without even finding one way or the other on the veracity or accuracy of Ms Norvill’s evidence. For example, it may be able to simply find the defence of truth not proved if Ms Norvill’s evidence, even taken at its highest, could not establish a defence of truth”

    As you have rightly pointed out, defamation law has its nuances that make it different to criminal law, especially that aspect whereby even if Ms Norvill’s evidence is totally accepted, defamation could still be found.

    I note that BB still does not get it. He has continually banged on perjoratively about Ms Norvill’s role in the case, as though she was a main player in filing the matter. He has commented about her motive in giving evidence ….. apparently he is in possession of insider knowledge that it is not the result of subpoena.

  10. Labor MPs are apparently talking up Michael Daley as replacement leader.

    This is a mistake. Daley is a log.

    Chris Minns is too inexperienced. Jodie McKay seems to be a divisive figure in caucus for some reason. Which seems a shame as she is a good media performer and ‘retail’ politician.

    Having heard him speak in the NSW conference fringe festival I’d strongly recommend caucus consider drafting Ryan Park. Elected in 2011 he’s actully the 3rd most experienced lower house Labor MP and has done a good job with the shadow portfolios he’s had. He can string a sentence together without sending anyone to sleep. He’ll do nicely.

  11. The average Aussie eats more than 200 eggs a year and around 40-50 kg of chicken meats a year. The industry is, given its importance for generating cheap protein for Australia’s poor people, surprisingly small in size: less than a $1 billion a year and somewhere between 3-4,000 employees.
    Nearly all of the above is in production systems that the Greens would ban.
    By how much would the Greens’ bans increase the cost of chicken meat and chicken eggs?
    Di Natale has questions to answer.

  12. Not sure if it’s been discussed here yet but just heard on the 4.30 news that an ABC employee has accused Luke Foley of groping her two years ago. Looks like his days as leader might be numbered.

  13. Psyclaw, Darc
    Notwithstanding your various points in multiple posts (which, not being a legal person, I found to be instructive) Blackburn did spend a lot of time and effort in his closing submission trying to argue for a high value for Norvill’s evidence.

  14. ‘The decision by the Greens to run a candidate in Arizona, notwithstanding that said candidate dropped out late on and endorsed the Democrat, was monumentally stupid. With the incumbent Republican standing down and not seeking re-election there was never a better chance to flip the state.’

    Well done, those Greens!

  15. ‘Darn says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 4:39 pm

    Not sure if it’s been discussed here yet but just heard on the 4.30 news that an ABC employee has accused Luke Foley of groping her two years ago. Looks like his days as leader might be numbered.’

    Is the Raper statement? If so, her letter has already been cut and pasted into Bludger. See above.

  16. Mavis Smith says: Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 4:41 pm

    Phoenix, yes, his plain Jane daughter would be a bridge too far even for him.

    *******************************************************

    You mean this plain Jane ????? ……. or the later version ?????? …… I am sure metrosexual hubby Jared is happy

  17. Boerwar @ #1617 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    Psyclaw, Darc
    Notwithstanding your various points in multiple posts (which, not being a legal person, I found to be instructive) Blackburn did spend a lot of time and effort in his closing submission trying to argue for a high value for Norvill’s evidence.

    B,

    He’s got no other choice! As I understand the evidence, it’s pretty much his only bullet. If that misses or misfires, then he’ll (or more accurately, his clients) will run 2nd.

  18. With Morrison’s “Blunderbus” tour now over, I’m not sure Queenslanders weret too impressed with him: VIP jetting 800 kms, when he should’ve been busing, mainly preaching to the converted, avoiding ockers calling him a wonker. But not only that. He now has to face Mal giving him a serve on Q&A tonight, commencing at 8PM. Shocking that a prime minister has to put with such inconvenience.

  19. Darc
    Oh. Thanks.
    It has been suggested in Bludger that Norvill has no motivation to lie.
    Would the judge take into account possible motivations on the part of the witnesses off his own bat, or would argument as to possible motivation have to be raised by one or other side for the judge to take motivation into consideration?

  20. Yes Foley should resign today.

    However. Over the years I have been groped, propositioned, slobbered on and had a tongue stuck in my ear by drunk men who were sometimes friends (sometimes strangers) and who later barely remembered doing so or sheepishly apologised if I ever saw them again.

    The thing is: when sober, men often fantasise about doing such things but have enough restraint not to act on it – when drunk however … they sometimes do act. Or when drunk they get violent.

    It isn’t excusable … but having experienced it more than once, I can honestly say there was no malicious intent that I detected. Just sheer stupidity fueled by the demon drink.

  21. j
    Nice post, IMO.
    Having had my life threatened by drunks, who meant it at the time, I am less forgiving.
    My view is that if you dare to drink you must put up with the legal consequences as if you were sober at the time you did whatever illegal act you did.
    Behaviour under the influence of recreational drugs, ditto.

  22. Another question to be asked:

    Why did Mr Daley and his colleagues do nothing when the allegations were raised earlier in the year ?

    Were they happy for the alleged groper to go on to be Premier or did they have an alternative plan ?

  23. jenauthor @ #1628 Thursday, November 8th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    It isn’t excusable … but having experienced it more than once, I can honestly say there was no malicious intent that I detected. Just sheer stupidity fueled by the demon drink.

    And there may have been no more than drunken stupidity in Foley’s case.

    But – two things …

    1. A propensity for drunken stupidity is not exactly part of the job description for being Premier.
    2. Foley lied about it.

  24. Boer – am I allowed to count issues that the greens called for and labor delayed for years before embracing them as their own? In addition to being a loud voice for environmental and social issues and very active at senate enquiries and keeping labor to the left, I’d add:
    – Royal commission into banks
    – Same sex marriage
    – negotiating amendments of many pieces of legislation
    – supporting and working with gillard on many progressive policies
    – supporting labor and other cross benchers to block LNP Budgets and other neo-con ‘reforms’
    – Clean Energy Finance Commission
    – Carbon Price (and stopping the piss-weak Rudd model, but would have worked to amend it if he wasn’t just using it to wedge the libs and refused to talk to the greens about their proposed amendments to strengthen it)
    – Renewable Energy Targets
    – better protection for firefighters’ (and others) work-related disease claims
    – better protection of territories rights
    – medicare funding for dental care for those on low income
    – getting the future fund to divest from tobacco
    – Taxpayer transparency regulation
    – national anti-corruption commission (labor finally on board)
    – stopping the malaysian ‘solution’
    – helping Keating pass Wik legislation (but didn’t stop him privatising the Commonwealth Bank – it that a great labor achievement?)
    – etc etc

    – humane treatment of refugees (oh, that’s right – labor still supports indefinite detention)

    there’s more – and at the state level even more.

    I wouldn’t have thought you too dense to realise that the greens are a voice in parliament without which labor typically cannot get through progressive legislation (or block regressive legislation) . But you do seem to be atrophying into a grumpy old white man in the Latham mold. Without the greens labor doesn’t achieve a whole lot either unless they are voting with the coalition to stop greens motions (such as many motions to debate treatment of refugees) or pass regressive legislation. labor always votes with the libs for above CPI parliamentary pay rises – the greens vote against. since the 1980s labor has shown it will go as far right when they are in government as they can. The greens have helped stop that and labor is well to the left of where it was under keating.

  25. Rex,
    What about the Greens who covered up sexual harassment and bullying until it had to be dealt with in court, or via The Greens disciplinary tribunal? Using your standards, maybe they have questions to answer as well?

  26. Alice Workman Verified account @workmanalice
    2m2 minutes ago

    Luke Foley making a statement at 5:30pm.

    He’s expected to resign.
    0 replies 3 retweets 2 likes

  27. sustainable future
    I said ‘major’.
    I also specified achieved ‘by the Greens’.
    So please leave out all the ones achieved by Labor.
    And do not count all the ones were the Greens have had a futile thirty year gabfest about something.
    That gets rid of your list completely.
    It is totally spurious and the the fact that you are willing to put it up does show that you Greens have no shame.


  28. JimmyD says:
    Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 4:30 pm

    Frednk, I don’t understand the question.

    It’s a crime, I was wondering how much time you think he should get.
    It happened after a office party, not in the office; should that result in more or less punishment?
    He slipped his hand down her dress; should that be more time than if he had slipped it up?
    Can he plead; I meant to go over her undies not under but I was pissed?
    Was it the squeeze at the end that really did him in?
    Is the level of flirting a mitigating factor; or is it now no contact,no matter what?
    I was at an office party once and a girl tried to slip her hand down my trousers; should I have had her charged?
    How much time do you think she should have got?
    She went for the front, he went for the back, who committed the bigger crime?

  29. From an article by Chambers and Griffiths over in The Australian

    ‘…
    BHP chief Andrew Mackenzie says a growing population and, possibly, climate change are making access to drinking water one of the top two challenges facing the world (along with global warming), and that the mining industry should treat water policy as seriously as climate, safety and tailings dams policy.
    …’

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/access-to-drinking-water-one-of-the-top-two-challenges-facing-the-world-bhp-boss/news-story/5c5053db5f4c4cb62561314c871f1d24

  30. Let us quit the moral indignation for 5 minutes. Groping, sexual assault, whatever you want to call it – aggravated, dtunken or otherwise – is not a capital offence. No-one deserves to lose their life over it, or to think that is the only honourable solution.

  31. Latest from ABC website:

    “Luke Foley to resign as NSW Labor Leader following harassment allegations
    UPDATED 6 MINUTES AGO
    Email Facebook Twitter WhatsApp

    “The ABC has been told NSW Labor leader Luke Foley will resign today.

    “Mr Foley’s minder said the Opposition Leader would hold a media conference at 5.30pm AEDT.

    “It follows a statement released today by ABC journalist Ashleigh Raper detailing how Mr Foley put his hand down her dress at a Christmas party in 2016.”

    https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-08/nsw-labor-leader-luke-foley-to-resign/10477996

  32. Bushfire Bill says: Thursday, November 8, 2018 at 5:14 pm

    Let us quit the moral indignation for 5 minutes. Groping, sexual assault, whatever you want to call it – aggravated, dtunken or otherwise – is not a capital offence.

    ********************************************************

    As approved by the most powerful man in the world/leader of the free world :

    “Grab them by the pussy” !!!!!

    ( VOMIT )

    Something that Donald Trump enjoys doing.

    “I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married.”

    “I did try and fuck her. She was married.”

    “Just kiss. I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything.”

    “Grab them by the pussy. You can do anything.”

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