Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.
Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.
Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.
Bushfire Bill @ #1849 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 10:30 pm
And then two will come along at once! 🙁
” Liberal PMs: if you don’t like this one, we have others!”
lol @BB
As someone commented in a tweet, it’s pretty dumb for Morrison to tour Queensland in a blue bus, banana-benders taking their State of Origin pretty seriously.
Mavis – someone should suggest a banana suit – he’d probably give it a go
It was 43C in Queensland, in early November! There is a strong el nino pattern forecast this summer. I wonder how the climate change denial will go there now?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/05/queensland-on-alert-as-heatwave-blasts-state-from-north-to-south
When the ScumMo bus hoves into sight, people will be saying “it is going to be a real stinker here today.”
C@tmomma @ #1847 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:27 pm
LOL!
If Morrison has any chance at all at the next election it exists in Qld in a rather ‘joh for pm’ or ‘Paulinesque’ manner whereby some form of support is generated in a ‘com’n the maroons’ genus which will prevent the electoral catastrophe confronting the LNP.
Bus crusades rarely work and leave the crusaders open to ridicule.
Morrison hasn’t been in a bus for zonks.
jenauthor:
[‘Mavis – someone should suggest a banana suit – he’d probably give it a go.’]
He would if he thought there were votes in it. This tour, especially after its been revealed that he’s travelling mostly in a VIP jet and that he hails from Sydney, won’t go down very well up here.
A blue bus in Qld! Going well so far. Not.
“He would if he thought there were votes in it. This tour, especially after its been revealed that he’s travelling mostly in a VIP jet and that he hails from Sydney, won’t go down very well up here.”
So he has some poor bastard on minimum wage, no penalty rates, driving the bloody bus to be where he is, but he is jetting it between photo ops. That is pretty uncool, especially if the taxpayer is footing any of the bills.
Is the bus air conditioned?
And any mention of strawberries and those charged under the toughened terrorism laws?
Weren’t there pins in strawberries?
The bothersome Borrison just seems to bumble along from one subject to the next
It is all about publicity, publicity and more publicity – as long as there is something coming out of his mouth he drowns out others
Fair dinkum!!
Ridicule can be a powerful weapon. Good to see it deployed against the ridiculous.
One more day to the Mid Terms in the US! I hope for a good outcome. But that bastard, Kemp, in Georgia, running against Stacey Abrams, really takes the cake for malevolence:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/04/brian-kemps-office-orders-hacking-probe-georgia-democrats-eve-election-hes-competing/?utm_term=.6ea7177bafa3
My stones, they’re discussing sex robots on Q&A tonight. nath, I hope you’re taking note.
C@t:
Kemp’s repeated malfeasance with the voter roll in Georgia should be a national shame and a stain on the Republicans for the lengths they will go to in order to cheat and deceive elections.
Absolutely disgraceful.
Looks like the reports are correct. Last season of House of Cards not very good.
cat:
Re. the midterms. I recently read on a US site (may’ve been the WP) that the age cohort of 18 to 29 have and will be voting in very large numbers, which will advantage the Dems.
And this is the same individual who lampooned “big” as in the big cray etc etc whilst demeaning the “big battery” in SA
And now he is on his “big” bus
Big idiot to me
The last PR type we had in politics was Kennett – and look what happened there
Victorians are still paying the price
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/nov/05/mitt-romney-utah-senate-win-trump
If there is a liberal Republican these days, it’s Romney.
Queenslanders hate Cronulla and their supporters.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/05/antisemitism-row-ukip-accused-over-links-with-us-far-right-website-infowars
Antisemitism is resurfacing in Europe and the US.
We should keep an eye out for postings from this site, infowars….
Congrats to all the blue bus editors today.
Very skilful, witty and enjoyable.
ALP should do a video “Here Comes Scotty” for the last weeks of the campaign …… all the buses on here today coming down a road in convoy. Ends with all the buses tear ending the one in front.
Surely you could put such a video together Kay Jay ….. during one of your mowing rest intervals!!!!
“all the buses tail ending the one in front”
“Antisemitism is resurfacing in Europe and the US. ”
Speaking of which David Frum, although he was trying to do the very opposite, showed so very clearly why you don’t give stupid racists with no new ideas, just age old hate and stupid nationalism (eg Steve Bannon), a platform to debate.
Firstly the Candians rightly tried to shut it down. Then they stuff up the scoring, publishing in error, a score that showed Bannon had trounced Frum, then they weren’t at all sure about the final score but it seems possible that simply ZERO people changed their minds. Which is the point, when you are bringing in bad faith non-ideas, just old racism hate and nationalism to the table, logic and argument are not weapons (even in the hands of someone smarter and less right wing maniac than Frum) that are ever going to change the minds of those that appeals too. So all you are doing is platforming racism.
… but journalism …. *head* *desk* *head* *desk*
briefly @ #1872 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:56 pm
And speaking of Utah, a mayor of a Utah county was killed in Afghanistan in the line of duty.
It raises a question for Virgin and our PM for backing their proposal: if a serving member is killed in action would his/her surviving dependents get priority boarding and in-flight public recognition?
The Lib messages on their bus are pure trolling. They are composed on the assumption that the readers are fools and will latch on to any passing bait. Really, they do actually think that voters are as stupid as they themselves are.
Voters have well and truly worked out the LNP. There is basically nothing they can do to deflect their imminent electoral smashing. Further than this, it looks like the harder they try, the worse for them it will become.
Every day yields another blunder, another few tens of thousand votes repelled, another humiliation amplified.
This is a rough one..
“Outrage as UNSW gives law students last semester’s exam”, exam results cancelled due the “admin” stuff up.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/outrage-as-unsw-gives-law-students-last-semester-s-exam-20181105-p50e5i.html
Maybe a new Dean of Law will be appointed to sort this out.
Posted with the usual caveats around polling when compulsory voting isn’t even a thing.
“Looks like the reports are correct. Last season of House of Cards not very good.”
House of Cards first jumped the shark in season 3 – with Frank and Clare’s Moscow trip.
WeWantPaul says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:08 pm
“Antisemitism is resurfacing in Europe and the US. ”
Speaking of which David Frum, although he was trying to do the very opposite, showed so very clearly why you don’t give stupid racists with no new ideas, just age old hate and stupid nationalism (eg Steve Bannon), a platform to debate.
Firstly the Candians rightly tried to shut it down. Then they stuff up the scoring, publishing in error, a score that showed Bannon had trounced Frum, then they weren’t at all sure about the final score but it seems possible that simply ZERO people changed their minds. Which is the point, when you are bringing in bad faith non-ideas, just old racism hate and nationalism to the table, logic and argument are not weapons (even in the hands of someone smarter and less right wing maniac than Frum) that are ever going to change the minds of those that appeals too. So all you are doing is platforming racism.
Personally, I have a lot of confidence that the racism will be defeated. The great majority of people are not sensitised to the contest – how could they be – and don’t quite know how to respond. But when the time comes, they will reject racism. The alternative is to invite degradation into our lives. People will not do it…not the mass of people, even as some fruitcakes attempt to foster hate for their own purposes.
Psyclaw @ #1874 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 11:05 pm
I will be heavily into mowing and edging again tomorrow.
I have no skills with video but I’m glad that others have combined to present the
“Big Blue Bus” show for us all tonight.
Goodnight once again. 💤
briefly:
[‘Really, they do actually think that voters are as stupid as they themselves are.’]
Well, I hate to say it but the further you travel north in Queensland, the more it resembles “Deliverance”.
Confessions says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:10 pm
It raises a question for Virgin and our PM for backing their proposal: if a serving member is killed in action would his/her surviving dependents get priority boarding and in-flight public recognition?
I think the Virgin idea also constitutes commercial trolling. It is baiting, in this case using a kind of innuendo centred on patriotism, as marketing bait. If anything can be relied on to antagonise people it is the objectification and exploitation of sacrifice and service to make money. It’s sick-making, really.
Virgin really messed this up. They will be seen as predators and as trying to implicate the public and service personnel in their FIGJAM routines.
More polling FWIW.
briefly:
It’s telling that Qantas quickly nixed the idea of doing the same.
What’s that internet phrase?
all your busses are belong to us.
Mavis Smith says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:19 pm
briefly:
[‘Really, they do actually think that voters are as stupid as they themselves are.’]
Well, I hate to say it but the further you travel north in Queensland, the more it resembles “Deliverance”.
The sweetest person I’ve met in recent times is an indigenous woman from the Torres Strait. I think you could say she is a natural innocent. She’s now 70 yo and has had an extraordinary life. But she retains a totally enchanting simplicity and candour. She’s forthright. She’s not naive. But she’s kind and open and trusting. We had a marvellous conversation. I learned a lot from her about her heritage and experiences. Among other things, she’s a cousin of Eddie Mabo, and we had a lovely detour into the meaning and importance to his family of his achievements.
So I dunno about Deliverance. I think people can surprise on the upside. We have to believe that, I guess. The LNP clearly do not.
“How Trump Is Handling
His Job as President
Approve 39%
Disapprove 55%”
Given voluntary voting, the habit of republicans to turn out to vote and the fickleness of democrats those numbers probably point to Trump being re-elected. He only needs 27% of that 39% to actually turn out to vote and the democrats are in all sorts of trouble.
That fickleness probably won’t save the republicans in the contestable mid term congressional races (although the senate is a likely republican hold) but in 2020 Trump will win with a 39% approval rating.
Confessions says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:29 pm
briefly:
It’s telling that Qantas quickly nixed the idea of doing the same.
Yes. I’m very glad they did. I know I’ve been tapping on this drum a lot, but is it yet another example of how “shame” runs through so many responses. The objectors to the concept said they felt service personnel would be “embarrassed”…which is to say, they would feel some kind of unwanted attention; that they could be attracting “shame”. This is a fascinating aspect of human behaviour. Shame and it’s inverse, pride, are like loose change in our pockets – always ready to be produced and spent.
I think “shame/pride” will contribute to the destruction of Morrison’s Liberals. No-one will want to be affiliating with such obvious frauds and incompetents. At the best, voters want to feel proud of their local MP and the PM. At the worst, they need to feel they are at least passingly competent; that the affairs of the counr]try are in safe hands. It’s clearly not possible to take in pride in the performance of Morrison. He is just so under-equipped for the role. Voters will flee from him in vast numbers. The LNP have proven beyond doubt that they are unfit for government.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:35 pm
“How Trump Is Handling
His Job as President
Approve 39%
Disapprove 55%”☺️
Andrew, I think the portents are good for the Democrats. Clearly, Republican/Trump-positive supporters are vastly outnumbered by their opposites. This means the Republicans have to massively over-perform simply to break even with their competitors. At the same time, while Trump has been stirring Republicans to vote, he has also been inciting his opponents – the young, the black, women – to also register and vote.
I think the Republicans face a disaster.
Goll says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 10:41 pm
If Morrison has any chance at all at the next election it exists in Qld in a rather ‘joh for pm’ or ‘Paulinesque’ manner whereby some form of support is generated in a ‘com’n the maroons’ genus which will prevent the electoral catastrophe confronting the LNP.
Bus crusades rarely work and leave the crusaders open to ridicule.
Morrison hasn’t been in a bus for zonks.
It should be called the “Blunder Bus”
briefly apart from the election there are 3 things I hope to see..
Dutton going down in flames
Abbott going down in flames
Turnbull being revealed as a dangerous fraud when the skeletons come out of the NBNco closet.
2019 could be a good year 🙂
Reggae. Incurable joy.
Cud Chewer says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:54 pm
briefly apart from the election there are 3 things I hope to see..
Dutton going down in flames
Abbott going down in flames
Turnbull being revealed as a dangerous fraud when the skeletons come out of the NBNco closet.
2019 could be a good year
Yes. I think the election will be a watershed. There will be Liberals strewn among the wreckage from coast to coast. It will be particularly gratifying to me too if Abbott and Porter are among the casualties.
I will be door knocking in Pearce this weekend.
Upnorth says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 11:53 pm
Goll says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 10:41 pm
If Morrison has any chance at all at the next election it exists in Qld in a rather ‘joh for pm’ or ‘Paulinesque’ manner whereby some form of support is generated in a ‘com’n the maroons’ genus which will prevent the electoral catastrophe confronting the LNP.
Bus crusades rarely work and leave the crusaders open to ridicule.
Morrison hasn’t been in a bus for zonks.
It should be called the “Blunder Bus”
The stunts just insult the intelligence of voters. They are about nothing and will invite nothing but cynicism.
Shameless. Where are Republicans on this? They’d have pitched the mother of all fits if Obama had acted in this way. This is one of Trump’s midterm campaign rallies.
https://edition.cnn.com/style/article/asia-now-japan-artists/index.html
Interesting