Updated with this week’s Newspoll, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a half-point gain for Labor on the two-party preferred, along with two gains on the seat projection, one each in New South Wales and Queensland. Bill Shorten also seems to be enjoying a modest upswing in his net approval trend; I still haven’t found time to sort out a trend for Scott Morrison, despite the fact that I probably have enough data to work with now. Another feature of BludgerTrack this week is that I’m now counting Wentworth as an independent seat, and following my usual policy of assuming elected minor party and independent incumbents will be re-elected.
Speaking of Wentworth, there has been no further progress in the count since last week, presumably because the Australian Electoral Commission has been waiting for the last eligible postal votes to trickle in before yesterday’s deadline. This should mean a few hundred votes will shortly be added to a score line that has Kerryn Phelps with a lead of 1783. You can find my detailed results display for Wentworth here, and BludgerTrack through the link below.
Note also the post below this one, an extensive summary of news from the Victorian election campaign. Not to mention the post below that, in which I plead for donations.
yabba,
I’m usually a bit gung-ho about whoever I support in elections. But I want Democrats to be nervous enough that they get out and vote.
Nicholas
I live in Brisbane. He also gets noticed because he speaks with assurance about and for his electorate.
zoomster says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 5:45 pm
The Greens’ polling is appalling at the moment. Firstly, they usually experience a bit of a surge mid-cycle. Secondly, they should be where disaffected moderate Liberals are parking their votes, so there should be more of a surge than usual. Thirdly, the drought is drawing people’s attention back to environmental issues, especially, of course, climate change.
And the best they can do is an 0.7 gain since the last election – with history showing that they’re likely to poll more poorly on election day than they are now. So, really, nothing.
Oh, btw, nath, you’re ‘once they’re Green they never go back’ is factually incorrect. For starters, Cunningham. And the two WA Greens in Keating’s time. And Tasmania, where they formed coalition governments, twice, but now aren’t nearly so important.
_____________________________
I’m reasonably happy with an 0.7 gain. Last election the Greens went up 1.8 so its all looking good.
I feel like my work is robot-proof….short-run productions dominate, manually complex so very expensive to automate, relatively low-capital intensity, reliant on sensory evaluations and product-specific judgments…serving niche sales channels….it will be a very long time before robots could perform at a lower cost than a human….or do a better job…
Back from Eye Hospital. Glaucoma in right eye.
I will require eye drops for the rest of my life. Sounds like as good as I could wish for.
Goodnight from me. 📺 🛌 💤
not too bad Kay Jay. gn
While Trump has been highly visible, attempting to rouse Republican voters, it’s also likely he will be motivating Trump-averse voters too. He seeks attention from his base, but because he is so incredibly outrageous, he cannot avoid attracting attention from his opponents, who actually outnumber Republicans. Trump is the most polarising figure seen in US politics. He might be impelling his enemies to show up and vote against him.
Question
A very good point. One of the problems with non compulsory voting being those who don’t bother voting because they think it’s a done deal. I heard much of this around BREXIT when I was there in 2016.
nath @ #1650 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 6:04 pm
Says the guy who, when he first appeared on PB, claimed to be only going to be here for a short while as he was in hospital recovering from a WORK-RELATED accident.
Now, I acknowledge that he could still be heading back to work, it just doesn’t sound like it, today.
Nicholas if you’ve got your ears on.
I don’t wish to get personal, but this is a perfect example of where bureaucratic schemes will never stop people falling through cracks the way a UBI would.
My sister suffers a diagnosed psychological condition that is a combination of trauma, extreme anxiety and a profound disconnection from reality. She lives in a world not far removed from that of her 8 year self. In a time before her father became psychologically abusive.
She’s not stupid. She has a fantastic memory for random detail. But her thought patterns are disorganises. And worse, her lack of competency in ordinary adult affairs is backed by her lack of introspective ability. Her condition has gotten worse over the years. She now feels that the world hates her and that she should be given a job worth of her (like high school teaching) when in fact she has absolutely no competency and does not believe that having such a job means being organised and disciplined. In short she is something of a princess with a mean streak – lashing out at anyone who dares to help her or guider towards anything that she is remotely competent at, like child minding.
She ended up on Newstart and her disorganised behaviour saw her getting faulted and taken to court on more than one occasion. We (her family) won btw. Eventually we dragged her kicking and screaming onto the disability support pension. Yes, kicking and screaming. You’ve no idea how traumatic this is for the family. Because she could not recognise her condition.. “There’s nothing wrong with me!”.
This is the perfect example of where systems that rely upon people acting on their own rational best interest fail. She cannot act in her own best interest because she has no insight into her condition.
Now she is on a disability support pension paying rent on a 3 bedroom house even though her children have long since moved out. Coaxing her into a simpler residence is frankly, too painful to consider. Her kids have moved far away from her and avoid her. Her rent takes nearly all of her pension. Which means that my mum pays for her outstanding bills like car rego. Btw, she can drive but is too scared to drive more than a few Km away from home.
So here we have an individual who will benefit absolutely nothing from a Jobs Guarantee. Although she is capable of child minding, she sees this as beneath her. As an insult. So what are you proposing for my sister Nicholas? No UBI, so therefore an inadequate income, rent poverty and having to drain my mother’s coffers (who is a war widow).
How do you deal with a class of people in general, for whom no amount of casework and carefully delivered “work” will either be appreciated or deliver anything socially worthwhile.
Nichols there are always some people who are a benefit to society from simply being happier. It doesn’t matter if they watch TV or occasionally mind the neighbour’s kids. What we don’t need is a continued sense of being rejected, which is what my sister feels. That she is a second class citizen if she can’t get a “real” job. A UBI that applies to absolutely everyone is the only way to end this kind of stigma.
Oh and btw. My sister being on a DSP is a precarious thing. She is precisely the kind of person who the present government would dearly love to kick off and push her and her family into poverty. A UBI on the other hand doesn’t come with being tested and evaluated. It took us 2 years to get her onto a DSP through the efforts of Centerlink staff and doctors who pushed the right buttons and helped fill the right forms. It was a nightmare. A civilised society shouldn’t have this.
briefly
Yep. Most of what I’ve seen and heard about the upcoming midterm elections is how divided the US public are. There seems to be very little middle ground on Trump, you either love him or loath him. That doesn’t seem to make a good politician to me.
briefly:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 6:03 pm
“Then there are verbs that became nouns…”
————————————-
The many English words that function either as noun or verb depending on context (like “function”) illustrate the basic point about grammar as distinct from vocabulary: it is the purpose the word serves in the sentence that defines its grammar, not its meaning. If “access” is used to denote the action of the subject of sentence, then in that sentence it is a verb. It is irrelevant that “access” can also denote a thing and so in those contexts be a noun.
Please stop me if I have passed the point where you stopped caring!
nath
My point is that the Greens don’t poll as well on election day as they do several months before the election. If they’re only 0.7 ahead now, it’s likely they’ll do less well in the 2019 election than they did last time.
‘Last election the Greens went up 1.8..’
No, they didn’t.
Nath,
I am still wiping my after-work craft beer off my keyboard, after laughing so hard!
Cud Chewer (Block)
Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 6:27 pm
Comment #1660
Sitting up in bed – lucky me. Using my little tablet. i.e. poking at it with a little thingy.
There must be a multitude of others who fit/not fit into situations such a you describe.
My now deceased sister-in-law was a hoarder and her son has so far, with the assistance of one of my cousins, sent 5 truckload to the Salvos and barely touched the rumble jumble of treasure.
I was pleased to be able to support her because I spoke to her – not to a house packed with random stuff.
I wish your sister and your family well. I full well (sort of) understand the difficulty in providing essential support.
A HC judgement even if it doesn’t result in a by-election could mean that Dutton is ruled as ineligible and doesn’t go to the polls at all. That could be a good thing.
The problem with the Greens is that some of their members just exude arrogance, and are very clear that they really do believe that Labor are as bad as the Liberals, and are very happy to bring down a Labor government, even if we do get an Abbott-type replacement.
They are not all Greens by any means, but their voices tend to be loudest.
I had a Greens activist colleague who was complaining that people in public housing did not support the Greens. I explained that you need to give them a reason to vote Green, and some suggestions. However, his reply was simply “The Planet”.
Interesting storey Cud. Good luck with your sister.
Don’t forget the drops KayJay.
Question
Something from the NYT to keep you nervous 🙂
.
.
If You’re Sure You Know What’s Going to Happen on Tuesday, You’re Wrong
…………….a gigantic blue wave that would represent a repudiation of the 2016 election has been that millions of Americans are so turned off by President Trump and his agenda…………….that his election was an anomaly and that American politics would quickly revert to the mean.
But that’s not going to happen — because it relies on a false premise.
https://outline.com/BLKJy8
Douglas and Milko @ #1668 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
My problem with the Greens – especially here on PB – is the number of them that pretend to be not Greens at all, but dissatisfied Labor voters.
As you say, it is often the arrogance that is the giveaway. Who they think they’re fooling, I don’t know 🙁
Thanks KayJay
There’s always people who just aren’t able to cope. The worst thing about my sister is that her condition prevents her from seeing herself as having a problem and therefore she wasn’t able to help or properly represent herself. But there’s lots of people who also fail the “will rationally act in self interest” test – which is what our social security system is predicated on.
Its a real economic cost in lots of ways and it would be so much easier if our society were to recognise that a) society would be better off if such people had a universal (non stigmatised) income even if they were doing nothing particularly useful except being happier and b) realising that even a “lazy” income actually results in most people finding a socially useful niche. The punitive attitude we have towards unemployed people simply ignores that humans don’t like being bored and lonely as much as they don’t like being poor.
Thanks Question. I just hope the next government stops being punitive to disability support pensioners. But the category shouldn’t exist.
Michael A
Cheers
Yes, grammar etc is VIP in written communication when mon-verbals are absent.
I have a sister and a friend who are both intelligent people but neither have a clue anout any aspect of grammar, punctuation etc.
And both write long SMSs usually, with absolutely no punctuation.
Usually takes 2 or 3 furtjher txts to be sure what they’re saying …. especially when they use eords that can be several parts of speech.
D & M.
The Lab=Lib slogan is tedious. The L-NP abolished the ETS, sacked climate scientists, and took lumps of coal into parliament. Just like Labor? What a joke.
A Lib saying Grn=Lab is more accurate. Not only on policy, but also preferences.
Test: Embedding tweet
Ok, Tweet worked. James Jeffrey was replying to
/blockquote>
nath, it’s no surprise to me that the G vote has at-best stalled. They have been mining pro-Labor voters for decades. To do this they have been attacking Labor. Labor-positive voters have worked them out and ceased to renounce their first-preferred party in favour of the critic. As well, the themes that served the Gs as rattles or klaxons – attention-getting noises – have largely faded and are much less audible. In the meantime, voter affiliations have been severely disrupted on the Right. While there is mobility among these voters, they do not often look to the Gs, who, it must be said, do not usually try to reach them. The result is that the G franchise is largely a legacy, a rump. They appear to be incapable of change and will continue to implement the strategy that has delivered stagnation.
It’s quite likely that in the coming election G voters – like most other voters – will vote for safety and predictability, in which case they will swing to Labor. From the viewpoint of a G-leaning voter, this makes sense. They can help assure the election of a strong and effective government by voting Labor both in the Senate and in the House. It will be interesting to see whether this occurs, and how intensely.
So far, the G-vote appears to be static. This is a very good result, considering the emptiness of their policy offering and the futility of their cause.
poroti
Chris Buskirk. He’s a conservative & Trump lovey.
psyclaw
Having a wry smile at the number of typos in that post! Still, after a couple more txts you might find the right eords.
C@t
”psyclaw,
Back to defend Bemused, the sexist stalker, again for another day? ”
WTF are you on about now. I haven’t written anything vaguely related to Bemused today.
Seems your vengeful nature is overwhelming your cognitions and impulses yet again,
BTW I never “defend” Bemused, whomsoever that virtual person is. What I do is call out your leadership of the reflex driven PB bullies.
I have called out your bullying of many posters here over the years, but since Bemused was a favourite target of you and your sycophants, I had to call you out frequently when you responded to him.
I await your usual claims of innocence and victimhood.
Douglas and Milko says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 6:40 pm
Nath,
I had a similar misspent youth. When first applying to the CES I adopted a mentally restricted demeanor. I was left alone for a year.
When eventually forced to go to job interviews and asked what my biggest weakness was I would reply: A tendency to take things from around the workplace. Left alone again.
I am still wiping my after-work craft beer off my keyboard, after laughing so hard!
____________________________________
Thanks D&M!
mikehilliard,
I will stay nervous, but not because of that article 🙂
Boerwar – sorry – none of my books are audio at this stage.
Thank you for your review Zoomster
Matter of fact I have been confined to a hospital bed this last week and have to endure keyboard letters on my mobile phone that are too small for my fingers.
Ditto with regard to the small writing area on the screen and the difficulties of reviewing before posting.
However I am fairly sure my communication is 100% comprehensible to anyone with an open mind and fair literary skills.
What kind of novels do you write Jen?
Zoomster
“the right eords” ?????
Are you on a phone too?
Nicholas is quite right about the UBI being an impossible ask because of the taxation implications.
But wait, @$21,000 per person it must assume universal open-ended free health care, education, housing and transport because $21,000 per person cannot possibly cover health, education, housing and transport needs.
Now, for the UJG, you are looking at maybe 10% real FTE unemployment.
That is around 1,500,000 people. We will not have to pay the UJG people anything at all but they will require the usual workplace add ons: training, equipment, supervision, all the overheads that go with management, etc, etc, etc.
What is not entirely clear is where the money for universal free lifetime health, education, housing, transport for 20 million people is going to come from.
The wage price inflationary spiral cannot be wished away.
There is another problem. Why would anyone do any hard, grueling, painful, stressful, complicated, dangerous, repetitive work when they can just quit their job and get free food, housing, health, education, transport and recreation for life?
‘jenauthor says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 7:09 pm
Boerwar – sorry – none of my books are audio at this stage.’
Oh. Please let us know when that happens. I will demand that our library system carries the titles!
Psyclaw (AnonBlock)
Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Comment #1684
I use the little aluminium tubes with a capacitive tip. Works well although the little screen keyboard is still very restrictive.
Get well soon .
💉
P.S. You had eords as a typo in one of your posts.
psyclaw
No, I’m quoting you (I realised yours were unintentional, but in the context it was mildly amusing…)
I picked spuds @ two shillings and sixpence a bag with bleeding fingers and an agonizing back in the stinking heat and clouds of flies.
The notion that ANYONE is going to do that sort of work when they can get a UBI and a UJG and free health and free education and free housing and free transport and free recreation organized for them is a very interesting proposition.
It’s an interesting balance, though, Boer — on the other hand, people shouldn’t be forced to do cr*p jobs for poor pay.
My answer to ‘why can’t we get workers to do X?’ tends to be ‘because you’re not paying them enough.”
jenauthor
Have you thought about reading your own work and creating an additional market that way?
Most of the author/readers I have experienced have been pretty good reading their own stuff.
That said, it is only a tiny minority that do read their own work.
‘zoomster says:
Monday, November 5, 2018 at 7:23 pm
It’s an interesting balance, though, Boer — on the other hand, people shouldn’t be forced to do cr*p jobs for poor pay.
My answer to ‘why can’t we get workers to do X?’ tends to be ‘because you’re not paying them enough.”’
Z, I agree that the rates of pay, particularly in the rural industries, is a national scandal.
psyclaw,
I have called out your bullying of many posters here over the years, but since Bemused was a favourite target of you and your sycophants, I had to call you out frequently when you responded to him.
I await your usual claims of innocence and victimhood.
What a predictable response.
zoomster @ #1692 Monday, November 5th, 2018 – 7:23 pm
Whereas the Tory answer is always that people are too picky, so we must import cheap labour 🙁
“This is a state that has a go,” PM @ScottMorrisonMP says of Queensland.— Shalailah Medhora (@shalailah) November 5, 2018
ScoMo doesn’t rate you Tassie and SA.
The Morrison Government has announced that the backpacker visas arrangements have been further watered down.
My answer to ‘why can’t we get workers to do X?’ tends to be ‘because you’re not paying them enough.”
Probably because it’s the only correct answer (at least for low skill jobs)
What a phoney
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ghost-bus-the-scomo-express-hits-the-runway-rather-than-the-road-20181105-p50e2g.html
well might we ask “where the bloody hell are you?”