BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 16 of 19
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  1. Looks to me as if the NSW Libs are heading down the gurgler and are desperately trying to force labor to do something very stupid (like dump Foley). Surely, the hard-heads in Labor will be too smart for that. I haven’t followed much of this story, but I doubt the electorate gives a flying f.

  2. NYT article just now in Fairfax:

    As the 2018 midterm campaign enters its final full week, House Republicans are rushing to fortify their defences in conservative-leaning districts they thought were secure, pouring millions of dollars into a last-minute bid to build a new firewall against Democrats.

    Republicans, in defending a 23-seat majority, are likely to lose a handful of open or Democratic-tilting seats as well as another dozen suburban districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, according to political strategists in both parties.

    But now Republican officials are increasingly concerned about Democratic incursions in some of the remaining 30 competitive districts on the House map where the Republican candidates thought they had an edge.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/world/north-america/republicans-rush-to-save-house-seats-from-democratic-onslaught-20181028-p50cgc.html

  3. Fabulous Netball today.

    I have not clue one about the rules, although a gaggle of male personalities made various pronouncements prior to commencement of hostilities.

    I think I could have done without 😈Eddie 😈 whatsisname.

  4. Briefly

    “LM82…I’m surprised. She has a good record on other matters relating to equality….”

    Briefly me too, and she does have a good record on a number of issues.

    Personally I’ve gone from being dissapointed to being angry, especially having voted for her during the byelection.

    I’m not surprised though Canterbury is the old heartland of Fred Niles voters

  5. guytaur
    “Nope. You can send a message to Labor by voting Green 1 Labor 2”
    The Greens will not be in a position to form government for a long time IF ever, to me it is a wasted vote
    if you wish to remove the LNP from office!.

  6. Steve Schmidt on the money again.

    Steve SchmidtVerified account@SteveSchmidtSES
    3m3 minutes ago
    TRUMP declared himself a nationalist and Neo-Nazis celebrated across America. This is reality. WORDS MATTER. Trump and his vile accomplices in the billion $ propaganda industry, abetted by the silence of complicit political cowards in the GOP have lit a match. Tragedy has come

  7. On the latest shooting in the US. I’ll be interested to see how the whole guns thing affects the mid term elections, but mainly in the context of the younger voters who a few months ago got active after the Florida High School shooting. Have not heard much reporting on this of late but seems to me they are a pretty motivated cohort that could be becoming a factor. Hope as many of them, and their relaives and friends get out to vote,

  8. The stories in this article make very sad reading.

    In one of the Northern Territory’s remotest communities, Indigenous residents are accusing the region’s Aboriginal health service of failing to respond to emergencies on a regular basis.
    Key points:
    Remote residents allege poor responses from health clinics have contributed to deaths
    Indigenous health service says government funding problems have forced services rationing
    The murder of a remote nurse in South Australia led to changes that contribute to staff shortages

    They allege it has contributed to at least one premature death, and damaged long-term health outcomes for other patients.
    The Sunrise Health Service said it was struggling to recruit enough staff to man its Indigenous community clinics in the Katherine region, and it is a problem common to many remote health organisations.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-28/national-indigenous-clinics-struggling-to-provide-care/10433716

    Now note this: What is Morrison’s Special Envoy doing?

    Urban Wronski
    ‏@UrbanWronski
    When Special Envoy Abbott was PM, his govt cut over $500 million from Indigenous Health – 5 years into a 25 year bipartisan commitment to close the gap in life expectancy & related health disparities between Australia’s First Peoples & their fellow non-Indigenous Australians.

  9. Steve Schmidt is stating the obvious
    Racism has its undercurrent in every society.
    He has weaponised his dog whistle to His demented followers.
    Trump only cares about enriching himself and his cronies. All this is part of the fodder of his reality show. It is so fricking disgusting

  10. Trump is a divisive moron and thats what Americans are becoming, more and more divisive themselves everyday.It is a throwback to the days of slavery that should be long gone in a modern society.

  11. steve davis says:

    Trump is a divisive moron

    Unlike Dubya Shrub eh ? 😆 The US is heading for electing 16 out of 24 years divisive morons as their leader . Kinda tells ya how dire the US is.

  12. Victoria says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 1:27 pm

    Steve Schmidt is stating the obvious
    Racism has its undercurrent in every society.
    He has weaponised his dog whistle to His demented followers.
    Trump only cares about enriching himself and his cronies. All this is part of the fodder of his reality show. It is so fricking disgusting

    ****************************************************************

    As was said by someone last week – it is open to debate that Trump is the worst ever President ……. but what is not open to debate is that Trump is the worst ever person to be a President

  13. @AnodyneParadigm
    17m

    On #landline today…China buying up Australian wineries (under guise of investment).
    I weep for this nation…of opportunists…& shortsighted, self-seeking politicians.
    When will enough be enough? When we’ve annexed all of our productive agricultural capacity to China?

  14. Kon Karapanagiotidis
    @Kon__K
    54m

    .@ScottMorrisonMP tells you his gov has been voluntarily bringing kids to safety in Australia. The truth? Bar 17 kids, the other 200+ kids now in Oz had to all have a court order/legal intervention to bring them here. 2 youngest kids we had to go to court for? 6 mths & 2 yrs old

  15. phoenixRED

    it is open to debate that Trump is the worst ever President ……. but what is not open to debate is that Trump the worst ever person to be a President

    A most excellent way to describe the situation.

  16. Victoria @ #760 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    Steve Schmidt is stating the obvious
    Racism has its undercurrent in every society.
    He has weaponised his dog whistle to His demented followers.
    Trump only cares about enriching himself and his cronies. All this is part of the fodder of his reality show. It is so fricking disgusting

    I shudder to think what could happen in a week or so. If the Deplorable Party candidates are wiped out in the midterm elections then I expect the nutjobs will really go on the rampage 🙁

  17. lizzie @ #766 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    On #landline today…China buying up Australian wineries (under guise of investment).
    I weep for this nation…of opportunists…& shortsighted, self-seeking politicians.
    When will enough be enough? When we’ve annexed all of our productive agricultural capacity to China?

    I have very few tears left for Australia. Our own greed and stupidity is going to be our undoing.

  18. Player One says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 2:02 pm

    I shudder to think what could happen in a week or so. If the Deplorable Party candidates are wiped out in the midterm elections then I expect the nutjobs will really go on the rampage

    ************************************************

    I agree with you on this Player One …… when I think of many other nutters and kooks out there in the US like Cesar Sayoc/pipe bomber and Robert Bowers/Synagogue shooter – with an vast arsenal of guns and ammo – and a soul full of hate for every second of their miserable life – it will only need a small spark to have US Civil War 2 …..

  19. Nobody wants it to happen, but how many more ‘lone wolf’ Trump fanatics are out there thinking of copying the two terrorist attacks this week?

    There must be a lot of nervous people in the US at the moment, both in law enforcement and among groups who might be potential targets.

  20. Player One says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 2:04 pm
    lizzie @ #766 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    On #landline today…China buying up Australian wineries (under guise of investment).
    I weep for this nation…of opportunists…& shortsighted, self-seeking politicians.
    When will enough be enough? When we’ve annexed all of our productive agricultural capacity to China?

    I have very few tears left for Australia. Our own greed and stupidity is going to be our undoing.

    Guess it would be ok for New Zealanders, Brits, Americans some sort of Europeans – maybe even Japanese or Singaporeans (at a Pinch) but god Forbid Chinese.

  21. Nobody wants it to happen, but how many more ‘lone wolf’ Trump fanatics are out there thinking of copying the two terrorist attacks this week?

    Every time I look at the crowds at his rallies I wonder the same thing. Some of the video footage Jim Acosta has shared on social media of Trump fans abusing him has been downright alarming. I reckon any one of those people could become a terrorist at a moment’s notice.

  22. Yeah, there are many many things to worry about in the world, and in this country, but foreign purchases of agricultural land is not one of those things in my opinion.

    The land isn’t going anywhere, and the new owners will still have to abide by domestic law as well (or as badly) as the ‘locals’ do.

  23. Republicans have been doing their worst to make elections as undemocratic as they can possibly get away with, but as soon as the vote counting starts after the midterms these are the same people who will be saying that the Democrats have cheated somehow and the elections are somehow illegitimate.

  24. No. Not OK. We should not be selling our land to any overseas people or companies, imho
    Upnorth @ #775 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 1:43 pm

    Player One says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 2:04 pm
    lizzie @ #766 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 1:58 pm

    On #landline today…China buying up Australian wineries (under guise of investment).
    I weep for this nation…of opportunists…& shortsighted, self-seeking politicians.
    When will enough be enough? When we’ve annexed all of our productive agricultural capacity to China?

    I have very few tears left for Australia. Our own greed and stupidity is going to be our undoing.

    Guess it would be ok for New Zealanders, Brits, Americans some sort of Europeans – maybe even Japanese or Singaporeans (at a Pinch) but god Forbid Chinese.

  25. Jackol

    Not just Agricultural land but anything that gets sold to OS owners means shipping profits overseas.
    Also things sometimes run for the benefit of the overseas owner. Worked for a company taken over by a US multinational. Zoom out went the local R&D , goodbye local production of several pieces of equipment needed. All became sourced from OS and the ‘local expertise’ ‘liberated’ from their employment.

  26. Upnorth @ #775 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 2:13 pm

    Guess it would be ok for New Zealanders, Brits, Americans some sort of Europeans – maybe even Japanese or Singaporeans (at a Pinch) but god Forbid Chinese.

    Nope. I would say the same about any nationality.

    But while we’re on the subject of China – can anyone see any sense in our signing up to China’s “Belt and Road” initiative?

  27. P1

    can anyone see any sense in our signing up to China’s “Belt and Road” initiative?

    I am sure Andrew ‘$800,000 pa” Robb will fill you in on all the glorious reasons why we should.

  28. There are men who are physically little.

    Quite a few of them, proportionately, have the added social downer of being ‘old’ as well. That goes with childhood hunger during wars and depressions.

    Little old men.

    I once had a tense conversation with a woman in our workplace. She had sneeringly referred to a manual labourer as the ‘little man’. He was not, in fact, ‘little’. He was above average height and well-built.
    I doubt she would have used term of disparagement for a fellow female worker in her workplace.
    What apparently made it ‘work’ for her was that the man was a labourer and that she was a pen pusher of self-ascribed superior status.
    The little old man… the little old woman…
    Why is it OK to use small size to smear men (or women) as ‘little’?
    Oh, and one other thing.
    My interlocuter was shorter, fatter, younger and probably more intelligent than average.

    Trump’s hair, hands, belly and colour are neither here nor there when it comes to judging him, his words or his actions.

  29. guytaur says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 12:14 pm
    Briefly

    So you think the cap fits. Wow that is a surprise but very revealing

    That is a thoroughly disreputable insinuation, g. It is typical G-slime.

  30. “Republicans have been doing their worst to make elections as undemocratic as they can possibly get away with, but as soon as the vote counting starts after the midterms these are the same people who will be saying that the Democrats have cheated somehow and the elections are somehow illegitimate.”

    At the risk of coming across as a little over the top on this, i do have some real concerns about politics in the US and Trump.

    Its his ongoing campaign to attack and denigrate ANYONE and any institution that is critical of him, and geeing up his “base” with the nasty “lock her up”, “fake-news”, “i’m a victim who is fighting back”, “yeah get angry and hit back” thing.

    My worry is that this is to set up a situation where if he is impeached, or in fact voted out, he will try and appeal “directly to the people!!” to somehow stay in power. Now the people he appeals to are a well armed, not particularly bright lot, a number of who seem to think that violence is justified. This is the kind of thing that can give rise to actual dictatorships.

    Hopefully the US actually does have (and i think they do) strong enough institutions in place that they can deal with that. But there could well be questions of loyalty arise in the process that the US has never had to deal with before. Its a worry. 🙁

  31. My worry is that this is to set up a situation where if he is impeached, or in fact voted out, he will try and appeal “directly to the people!!” to somehow stay in power. Now the people he appeals to are a well armed, not particularly bright lot, a number of who seem to think that violence is justified. This is the kind of thing that can give rise to actual dictatorships.

    Some in the US media have referred to the Trump presidency as a slow moving coup for precisely those reasons.

  32. Nobody wants it to happen, but how many more ‘lone wolf’ Trump fanatics are out there thinking of copying the two terrorist attacks this week?

    What struck me about this was Trump’s suggestion that if the synagogue had only employed armed guards, the killings would have never happened (or, I presume, would have been limited to a more acceptable 3 or 4 before the shooter was gunned down himself).

    This assumes that the guards were combat ready, and able to detect a shooter before he actually started shooting. In fact, too many of these security guys are $10 per hour nobodies working 3 jobs (of which being an armed security guard is only one). They are not trained combat veterans capable of assessing a life-and-death situation accurately and responding perfectly to it. With no doubt thousands of synagogues as potential massacre sites, you’d need billions of dollars and an army of trained and experienced guards to even have a chance of stopping every attempted massacre.

    And then there are the schools, the black churches, abortion clinics, womens’ refuges and gay bars to protect. An almost impossible task (in fact, forget the “almost”).

    Good money and big sales for the Firearms Industry, though. Imagine selling guns to every second paranoid nutter, and then selling guns to the remaining paranoid nutters so they could protect themselves from the other half of paranoid nutterdom. What a racket!

    Oh yes, and there’s one more thing…

    What an insensitive arsehole Trump is.

  33. Trump isn’t going to be removed via impeachment. Hopefully (but not necessarily!) he will be voted out, although if he thinks he is likely to lose in 2020 he most likely wouldn’t stand again.

    If he stands and loses and makes a big fuss, yeah there might be problems.

  34. A controversy arose when Donald Trumps personal physician after a medical said his height was 6’3” and his weight was 239 pounds – he was considered over weight – however if he was one pound heavier or one inch shorter he would be classified as obese ….

    Some time later he was pictured standing next to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – who is 6’2” – and Trudeau easily looked taller …..so something didn’t quite add up

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5827019/Justin-Trudeau-proves-Trump-overstating-height-two-inches-means-obese.html

  35. BB

    Now as you know the answer to school shootings is to have armed teachers. So all the synagogues need is armed rabbis. You know it makes US Nut Job sense 🙁

  36. guytaur, separation of church and state means as far as the state is concerned, religious organisations are just like any community groups, and ministers of religion are just like any jobholders/volunteers. There’s no difference between a priest or an imam standing for parliament and a businessman or a housewife standing for parliament. The businessman might have views about religion and the priest might have views about business.

    Or if not, then why should god bothering be handled any differently than coal mining, gun running and tree hugging and worker organising?

  37. ‘Land of the free.’Where everyone has to apparently have a gun available at all times just in case some nut job attacks them. Freedom my arse.

  38. Is this what we are becoming?

    More students than ever are turning to ‘sugar daddies’ to pay tuition fees and help with soaring living costs
    Thousands of university students are signing up for ‘sugar daddy’ services online
    There is a massive rise in the number of girls willing to sell company to older men
    The site SeekingArrangement adamantly denies they encourage prostitution
    Regardless, a number of profiles advertise ‘sexual favours’ in exchange for cash

  39. steve davis says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:37 pm

    ‘Land of the free.’Where everyone has to apparently have a gun available at all times just in case some nut job attacks them. Freedom my arse.

    **************************************************

    I think the theory to stop all this gun violence is that EVERYONE carries a gun ….

    In this American town, guns are required by law

    In Kennesaw, Georgia, local law says that “every head of household residing in the city limits is required to maintain a firearm.”

    “If you’re going to commit a crime in Kennesaw and you’re the criminal — are you going to take a chance that that homeowner is a law-abiding citizen?” asked Kennesaw Mayor Derek Easterling.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/06/us/kennesaw-georgia-gun-ownership/index.html

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