BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Psyclaw @ #699 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 10:10 am


    Coorey was referring to the much higher than expected rate of ongoing tax collections, currently (in the September quarter) and projected during this financial year. (ie what dollars are flowing in, not what dollars are currently “in the bank”.)

    For drought relief, they need the dollars already collected and “in the bank” Hence the NDIS “borrowing”.

    Nothing procedurally strange or illogic.

    Isn’t the great drought relief slush fund from 2020?

  2. Socrates

    If you travel around Melbourne and Victoria you will see the achievements so far of the Andrews government both with public transport, roads and public amenity

    It makes a stark contrast to the 4 years prior to Andrews becoming Premier

    So, really, it is more of the same from this government being a continuation of their existing program identified by the next tranch of projects

  3. briefly @ #700 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 11:11 am

    LongMemory82…what makes you think Cotsis is homophobic?

    We had a number of incidents here in Canterbury during the Postal Vote. I wrote to her a couple of times to speak up against homophobia – she never bothered to respond.
    She regularly has events with the local religious communities (which is fine), including the Greek Orthodox priest who said all gays should be shot. There was no comment from her regarding this.

    During the postal vote she was completely silent, and while it was a federal issue (other NSW Labor politicians were not).

  4. psyclaw

    Well, yes, there is – the whole purpose of a Future Fund is to lock up the money for a particular purpose. Taking it out for another purpose is against the whole idea of a Future Fund, and is unnecessary when you know you have an ongoing income stream.

    There is no huge hurry to set up a Future Fund for drought relief – they’re talking about putting money away now for future droughts, not paying out huge amounts of cash tomorrow. It would make very little difference if they waited until the Budget to do this.

  5. P1, the thread from Hannam’s request is interesting, and he actually responds in a non defensive manner, unlike most journos on twitter.

  6. Psyclaw @ #699 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 11:10 am

    For drought relief, they need the dollars already collected and “in the bank” Hence the NDIS “borrowing”.

    Which of course they have no intention of actually repaying, leaving it to Labor to find the money again when they get back in next year.

    This whole business of having special dedicated funds for specific policies is a fraud 🙁

  7. I am interested to see in the upcoming state elections what the primary vote for the LNP will be.

    Will the primary vote collapse at is has done in by elections?

    If and its a big if that trend continues I think we truly are seeing the end of the LNP for going too extreme.

  8. Pull your head in Barnaby – you’ve been sent off
    By Peter FitzSimons
    28 October 2018 — 12:03am


    “56 Australian women have been violently killed by men this year. If it were by sharks or strawberries something would have been done by now.”

    Laura Davis @lauradaviscomic


    When I took the entrance exam for medical school, I was perplexed by this question:
    “Rearrange the letters P-N-E-S-I to spell out the part of the human body that is most useful when erect.”

    Those who spelled SPINE became doctors. The rest are in Parliament.

    A very good read. The quotes are (as noted about another item) well worth the price of admission.

    Quotes of the Week

    “I really like Scott Morrison, I’m enjoying him. He’s like Australia’s relief teacher – he doesn’t look quite right and you know he’s not going to be around long and, while he’s in, we can just all muck up.” – Comedian Tom Gleeson.

    “One less lawyer and one more doctor in Canberra can only be a good thing.” – Justin Brash, Surry Hills. Letter to the Editor, SMH, referring to the Wentworth byelection.

    plus much more
    ☕ 😵


    The Gs feeling left out…no one wants to talk to them about anything, ever.

    While the parties and the candidates need financial resources to operate, it’s also the case that individuals and organisations, including businesses, unions and other civil entities, are free to use their own funds for political purposes. The basic problem for all but the largest and most well-funded organisations is getting the favourable attention of decision-makers at all in relation to anything of substance. Even then, the very big organisations set out to influence public opinion more widely by using the whole range of sponsorship, publicity, advertising, public relations and political relations management. Interaction with politicians and staffers is just a part of that.

    Since it is inevitable and desirable that organisations will seek to influence the conditions in which they operate, it would be very unwise to try to repress that. Repression will create pressure for corruption in conditions of secrecy. Political work would become conspiratorial and in some cases criminalised.

    Rather than trying to repress interactions between civil organs and political parties and politicians, it’s necessary to make these interactions more open….to recognise that it’s not enough simply to regulate parties. Political action more generally has to be declared and be available for scrutiny.

    In WA, lobbying, for example, is a regulated activity. The system is intended to enable access, but to ensure there is no secrecy and therefore fewer incentives or opportunities for improper or illegal processes.

  10. @BelindaJones68
    After adjusting his tie, straightening his over-sized cap, @cpyne steps up, hands on hips to give the illusion he not 5’1″ and 45 kgs dripping wet, cleared his voice and said:

    “Hello Sailor”

  11. From Peter FitzSimons’ SMH column:

    ‘Well helloooooo, Barnaby! And good morning.

    I see from reports of your interview with Fran Kelly on Radio National on Friday morning that – extraordinarily – you begin each day by Googling your own name, so I am sure you will be reading this over your Weet-Bix. Hope you are well, etc. Shame about the Wallabies last night.

    But I write now, oddly enough – rugby man to rugby man, with no crap – to ask: mate, what is going on? How can you sheet the blame for the disaster of Wentworth on to Malcolm Turnbull? You really think it would have made a blind bit of difference if he’d lobbied for Dave Sharma? Was it even reasonable in the first place to expect him to do so?

    On social media last week I saw it described as being along the lines of “expecting Turnbull to volunteer to mop up the blood from his own stabbing in the back”.

    Such an expectation from you might be manageable if you yourself had proved to be the team player to beat them all after your own loss of the deputy prime ministership. But, are you?

  12. briefly

    Your take is wrong. The headline alone makes it clear. Come clean is asking for transparency. As long as its out in the open and there is no hiding thats a good thing. Especially if its reported in real time not delayed.

  13. I may have missed its mention somewhere else on PB but anyhow, its National Grandparents Day ( according to Gooogle).
    To all those Grandparents out there -thanks for all your efforts, especially with grandkids. You are an extremely valuable part of our society. Your wisdom ,experience and caring make this stressful life a little easier. .

  14. I have always considered the so called “Future Fund”, obviously identified by the Liberals as a Costello positive to be a nonsense

    What it has done is addressed that the Commonwealth has a contingent liability being the Defined Benefit pension payments to Public Servants including into the future – and reserved funds to meet that contingent liability


    The liability is a recurring liability – so should be serviced from recurring income

    Not by taking money from a particular demographic, being the contemporary demographic for a future demographic

    The Future Fund monies are best deployed elsewhere

    And, if concerned about Defined Benefit then transition to accumulation where the responsibility is with the individual not the State

    All other business – including our banks, transitioned their employees from Defined Benefit (so a contingent liability on the Balance Sheet) to accumulation putting responsibility with the employee

    Why not the Commonwealth?

    These “Future Funds” are clap trap

    If you deal with the contemporary the future will look after itself

    Much the same with the privatised water companies in Victoria amortising the desalination plant over 20 years (at whose cost) when it is an inter generational asset

  15. guytaur says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 11:34 am

    Your take is wrong.

    Nah. This is G grandstanding…having a crack at those evil, untrustworthy, nasty, corrupt, money-grubbers in the other parties, and, by implication, those criminal corporations that donate to them.

    The Gs contribute prescisely zero to the discourse. Anyone who has been involved in political fundraising knows how hard it actually is to prise donations out of businesses. It is basically impossible most of the time.

    The Gs can GAGF.

  16. briefly

    Thats the attitude that sends Labor voters to voting Green.

    Just say I think Labor is being transparent and open so that complaint is irrelevant. Its all you need to say unless of course its not true.

  17. Talking about holier-than-thou, what on earth is happening with Mr Buckingham?

    I await with confidence major grandstanding from the Greens on the ethical and governance issues involved.

  18. Bushfire Bill (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 10:31 am
    Comment #679

    I had a look at the item you mentioned in your post –

    The Christmas party that sparked Luke Foley’s week from hell
    By Deborah Snow & Alexandra Smith
    26 October 2018 — 3:45pm

    The best I could come up with in response is fuggen arskeholes. (The Debbie and Alex article.)
    For one frightening moment I thought that Ms. Smith may be this one:-

    Alex Smith – Wikipedia
    Alexander Douglas Smith (born May 7, 1984) is an American football quarterback for the Washington Redskins of the National Football League (NFL).

    But not so – apologies to Ms. Smith.

  19. The future fund is a good destination for any money that comes from privatization, because it can earn a commercial return, and it can diversify income more than before.
    So questions about privatization can be reduced to operational concerns.

  20. “”Thats the attitude that sends Labor voters to voting Green.””
    If you want to change this useless government, that is the WRONG attitude!.

  21. 1934

    Nope. You can send a message to Labor by voting Green 1 Labor 2

    We do not have a first past the post voting system.

    This election with the right wing primary vote splitting its especially true.

    Wentworth sent a clear message big time. A continuation of other by elections. So in our preferential system you can vote Green 1 Labor 2 to send a message no mater how much the Labor party wants that number one vote. Its up to the voters.

    Edit: Wentworth sent a message. Tactical voting worked so safe Liberal seats vote for the candidate that increases the LNP losing if you want a change. Federal election the numbers are clear for a majority Labor government

    Its certainly not voting for the LNP

  22. douglas and milko (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 10:24 am
    Comment #675

    A very late Cartoon Corner

    Thank you. The cartoons help add a little

    airiness buoyancy flightiness flotation frivolity giddiness

    to my day. 😇

  23. With our backs to the wall on global warming, the best ‘message’ is to vote 1 Labor.
    Anything else would be self-indulgent frip frap frapping at the edge of our existential crisis.

  24. BW

    Yes backs to the wall for the right. So vote to maximise the voice of the left in parliament.

    That means vote tactically to get rid of the LNP. That means vote in safe Labor seats Green 1 Labor 2.

    The major parties will get the message. Stop taking the voters for granted.

  25. guytaur says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 11:44 am

    Thats the attitude that sends Labor voters to voting Green.

    Just say I think Labor is being transparent and open so that complaint is irrelevant. Its all you need to say unless of course its not true.

    There it is, for all to see. Implicit in the G whinge is the notion that the other parties are corrupt. You’ve just invoked the same slur, and, whether intentionally or not, have personalised it. Are you really saying that I could be crooked? Why should I or anyone else be expected to deny a transparent, self-serving lie propagated by a G partisan?

    As I say, the Gs contribute exactly zero to the discourse. They can GAGF.

  26. Boerwar @ #730 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:07 am

    Oh. I suppose that means the answer to any Greens’ moral posturing might always be, ‘Buckingham’.

    Ironically Buckingham was railing in state parliament with a motion describing Trump as unfit for office and a slug in the wake of those Access Hollywood tapes where Trump boasted about grabbing women between the legs.

  27. On Sunday Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie told ABC’s Insiders that “nobody should be above the law”, appearing to agree that an anti-corruption commission could investigate Australia’s spying on Timor-Leste during oil and gas treaty negotiations in 2004.

    Should John Howard be seeking legal advice?

  28. @Astorytotell AB tweets

    From @AidenRickets via @JaneCaro ‘Activism is like the immune system. It rises in response to the threat.’ Such strong writing in The Saturday Paper yesterday.

  29. P1

    Yes, the national debt was an “emergency” 4 or 5 years ago. Now it’s tripled and “because of Labor it costs us a zillion dollars of interest each day”.

    So if there is enough for huge future funds, wouldn’t it be best to pay down the debt a bit n save the daily interest zillions.

    I may be naive in this, but if there is an explanation from the LNP I would treat it with scepticism.

    I am not totally against governments saving for a rainy day, and Costello’s future fund was critical to GFC management by Rudd n Swan. But that future fund was built in a time of no debt and huge mining boom receipts. In fact it should’ve been much bigger, considering the assets Costello sold off and the pork barrelling structural tax reductions.

  30. The headline is appropriately called ‘What is happening to our country?’.

    When Trump talks about “globalists,” the far right hears “Jews.” When Trump says there were “fine people” on both sides in Charlottesville, the far right hears official approval. There is so much anti-Semitic filth online now. I see it every day on Twitter and in my email inbox. Normally I tune it out. Just background noise. But others are listening.

    And Trump continues his incendiary rhetoric even after the tragic consequences have become clear. On Friday, after a pro forma denunciation of political violence, Trump laughed as a group of black conservatives at the White House chanted “Fake News!” He echoed their chants of “Lock him up!” about Soros. Hours later, he presided over a rally in Charlotte, where supporters chanted “CNN sucks.” Asked by reporters whether he would tone down his hateful rhetoric, he defiantly replied, “I could really tone it up.” Asked if he bore any responsibility for what is happening, he answered, “There’s no blame. There’s no anything.”

  31. Psyclaw

    Costello sold the Future Fund as if it was a sovereign wealth fund. If he had instead sold an actual sovereign wealth fund he would have been a good treasurer. Have to fully agree with you on his performance.

    Swan was much much better.

  32. Sceptic

    Should John Howard be seeking legal advice?

    About bailing his brother out with taxpayers money? The Iraq wheat scandal ? Invading Iraq ? Changing the law/regulation regarding tariff’s on ethanol while a Brazilian ship was en route to Australia to make it uneconomic and there by eliminating competition to a Yuuge Liberal party donor ? I’m sure there are a few more .

  33. Sceptic at 11.59

    I’m not a great fan of Ms Maley – but she is spot on in that article. The only saving grace for Foley is that he only threatened the Government ministers concerned – he did not actually out any woman.

    This stuff is just appalling and makes the women concerned victims twice over.

  34. TPOF

    Foley is defending himself. I am no fan of the man. I have to give him credit for doing so and not increasing the damage any more than he had to.

    He showed more ethics under pressure than I have seen from the LNP.

    The one that should be getting the opprobrium is Senator Abetz suddenly a feminist zealot.

  35. Busy Sunday, who knew? But here’s a short update on the Newspoll-Poll guesses. I will post the full list COB tonight.
    Great Sunday to all.

    PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 73

    Guesses since last night
    ALP / LNP
    56 / 44 Aqualung
    53 / 47 Bert
    54 / 46 Lynchpin

  36. Outspoken rector of Gosford Anglican church and human rights activist Father Rod Bower will run as an independent candidate for the Senate in the federal election.

    Bower made the announcement while addressing a refugee rally in Sydney on Saturday, where protesters gathered to call for children to be evacuated from Nauru. Bower is known for his thought-provoking signs displayed in front of his Gosford church on the New South Wales central coast

    I don’t like Ministers of religion running for parliament. I like the separation of church and state. I have no right however to deny any citizen from running for parliament. As far as ministers go I like this one.

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