BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. lizzie @ #646 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:20 am

    Boerwar

    Yes, I found that wind stilling piece interesting because it runs contrary to belief. There was some idea that it might affect wind farms in the future.

    This is an extremely interesting item. Reading about it yesterday showed –

    What about wind farms?

    The obvious industry that could be affected is wind farming, but at the moment it is hard to know by how much.

    Current studies have only looked at wind speeds 2 metres above the surface.

    “An important thing to remember is a modern wind farm is typically 100m above the surface, so what’s happening up there could be a little bit different. Could be a lot different actually,” Professor Roderick said.

    The stilling is happening and until we know more, we will have to watch and see how the wind blows.

    Peter, Paul and Mary – Blowing in the Wind

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ld6fAO4idaI

  2. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    37m37 minutes ago
    Today on #insiders Independent MPs @MakeMayoMatter and @WilkieMP. @GuardianAUS’s @mpbowers talks pictures with @ABCTV’s #SammyJ. On the couch are @theheraldsun’s @annikasmethurst , @7NewsSydney’s @Riley7News and @financialreview’s @phillipcoorey. Join us at 9am! #auspol #insiders

  3. Gawd – ABC breakfast: this woman from the master builders on ABC is talking utter rot on Neg Gearing/Cap Gains.

    This kind of misinformation is what creates Trump’s America – ignorant, greedy and destructive

  4. The mass shooter in Pittsburgh was another of Trump’s deplorables.

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    1h1 hour ago
    5/ The shooter believed Trump was controlled by Jews. “Trump is surrounded by kikes, things will stay the course,” he wrote on Gab. “There is no #MAGA as long as there is a kike infestation.”

    And instead of trying to unite the country and be statesmanlike, Trump is laying into Elizabeth Warren.

    Jake TapperVerified account@jaketapper
    47m47 minutes ago
    POTUS today tells Future Farmers of America about Sen. Elizabeth Warren: “Turned out that I had more Indian blood in me than she has. What a sad event. And I have none. So you know. We can’t resist. Can we resist?”

  5. Bw
    Thanks for the link to the article with the Dutton gun lobby story. So much for law and order from the ex-policeman.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/15/peter-dutton-considering-request-for-gun-importers-to-review-rule-changes

    Mindful of the disastrous example of the US democrats, Labor absolutely must expose links like that in the election campaign. Dutton is still in an urban seat, where gun industry links will not go down well.

  6. While listening to the Duke and Dutchess speech at the closing ceremony, you’d be mistaken in believing they had been present during the games instead of swanning around Fiji at our expense.

  7. With the Victorian election soon I have one comment on Andrews and the promises for future improvements to public transport. They are absolutely the correct promises, but they are far too late. They look like campaign stunts. Will they actually happen? If so, when? Like Morrison’s embassy relocation promise during the Wentworth campaign, such major announcements during the campaign looks like panic.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/gloves-off-as-state-election-campaign-turns-into-the-straight-20181027-p50cdp.html

    A frustration I have with transport planning in Australia is that the political parties have succeeded in taking control of it, but have not succeeded in understanding it. It needs a long term approach, not more ad hoc decisions. Most of the world’s best urban transport systems were developed over decades with long term commitments to proper analysis, planning and transparent decision making. We sadly lack those things in all states.

    So good luck to Victorian Labor but next time do the job for three years, not three months. Have a good day all.

  8. Shellbell
    I get the impression she was borrowing rather than stealing the trust funds.
    Great pity, she had a wonderful web site. It was like “Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous” (and tasteless)

  9. lizzie @ #624 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 6:46 am

    Great work lizzie! Not your fault that the news is so bad 🙁

    Gittins. This “baseline scenario” assumes no change in government policy. That’s the point: it’s intended to show the world’s governments how great is the need for them to make a policy response.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/world-growth-a-toxic-danger-for-the-environment-20181026-p50c3l.html

    The world is facing three rolling disasters this coming century – global warming, pollution, and overpopulation …

    The report projects that, over the 50 years to 2060, annual global use of materials – including metals, fossil fuels, biomass (food and fibres) and non-metallic minerals (mainly sand, gravel, limestone and other building materials) – will more than double, from 79 gigatonnes in 2011 to 167 Gt in 2060. Gosh.

    And the consequences …

    Of course, there’ll still be a big increase in pollution. Greenhouse gas emissions, but also acidification, freshwater aquatic ecotoxicity, terrestrial ecotoxicity, human toxicity via inhalation or the food chain, photochemical oxidation (smog), ozone layer depletion, and not forgetting increased land fill to dump the materials when we’re done with them.

    Naturally, all the issues are closely related. We will not be able to address global warming until we are also prepared to address both population growth and the incredibly wasteful lifestyle we live in the developed world – a lifestyle which the planet simply cannot support if extended to the majority of its burgeoning population. Pretending it can will simply further entrench poverty and inequality.

  10. ‘This kind of misinformation is what creates Trump’s America..’

    It’s actually the kind of misinformation which will create Morrison’s Australia.
    Unless of course the brainiacs at ALP HQ push back…..

  11. According to Mark Riley the Liberals’ women problem is very evident in Victoria. No surprises, as their women problem is pretty much country-wide from what I can see.

  12. Was it Coorey who said the govt is flush with money now, and all they have to do is spend it, before the election? No need to guess who they’ll give it to.

  13. Transport becoming politicised happened when the car is king culture took place. The period where Sydney ripped up all the trams. I love having the Opera House but we should never have destroyed the tram network.

    At least now the politics is driving the take up of trains as congestion busting becomes the to do political thing for state governments.

    Now all we need to do is stop the neo liberal privatise trains and say they must make profits. It should be they should be viable by the numbers of people carried and the cost is just part of being a good society that caters for people not for business and the almighty dollar.

  14. Socrates

    So good luck to Victorian Labor but next time do the job for three years, not three months. Have a good day all.

    ————————-

    Very true – and although my political leanings go to the left of the ALP, one of the best things that the Vic Labor Government has done has been to get serious about long term public transport planning. Metro One is happening right now – the original Brumby era version rather than the scaled down Baillieu-Napthine proposal – and the airport rail link, as well as other localised network extensions – seem to be more than mere announcements. The Suburban Rail Loop plan in particular is extraordinarily positive I think – especially from the point of view of Government taking a long-term, city shaping approach to public transport planning. I heard Jon Faine of ABC Melbourne speaking earlier in the week and saying that the public talkback reaction to the proposal was uniformly positive. He was really surprised by that – it hardly ever happens. I think it’s because the basic idea of Government taking a long term visionary approach to anything has been so rare in this era. Big picture thinking is like a breath of fresh air. Whether those particular projects are the best and most effective public transport solutions is a matter of legitimate debate. But it’s great that we can now actually have that debate with some confidence that we’re not just talking pie in the sky.

  15. Pretty disgusting what they’re trying to do to Luke Foley in NSW. And by “they” I don’t mean the Liberals. It’s the SMH that’s running this dirty little smear campaign.

    I am particularly disgusted with “Deborah” Snow’s finger-wagging front page articles concerning Foley (and, for that matter, words of similar ilk regarding Emma Husar). When I knew her at ANU as a law undergraduate, she was plain old “Debbie” Snow, and could be said to have had a few things in her own past that fingers might be wagged at. We all do.

    Snow’s longevity at the SMH is once again testimony to the ever more apparent situation at Fairfax, being that you only get to avoid the retrencher’s axe if your credentials are solidly conservative and can be relied on to dish dirt upon Labor on cue. Having a Daddy who was a senior RAN officer would indicate Snow’s political antecedents.

    To the “charges” against him, Foley’s response is that whatever the level of boofheadedness he may (or may not) have exhibited towards a female ABC journalist all those years ago, it was not enough to excite a complaint against him. Nevertheless, Eric Abetz (himself the close relative of a Nazi murderer, if we’re into guilt by innuendo) has heavied the ABC into starting an investigation without a complaint. Will the journo in question be disciplined for not lodging formally? That would surely be a turn-up for the books.

    Not to be deterred, the SMH today runs an article headed:

    Foley is ‘cooked’: Liberals preparing to face new Labor leader at election

    Sounds pretty awful for Luke Foley, doesn’t it? Until you read through the piece, only to discover that it’s the Liberals who reckon Foley’s cooked, not his own party.

    The SMH concurs of course (or else why the misleading headline?) and backs it up by running a classic bootstrap campaign. All the elements are there:

    ● Unsavoury behaviour by leering Labor Sir Les Paterson lookalike,

    ● Smarmy implication that an anonymous young female journo has been heavied into silence,

    ● Additional implication that has the ABC in it’s best “Nest Of Lefties” mode, refusing to investigate,

    ● Completely made up story that Labor numbers are being counted, and that Foley’s replacement has already been picked,

    ● Bonus scandal that replacement leader also has questions to answer re. drunken behaviour,

    ● Side-pane story tells us of noble-spirited Libs who inform intrepid reporters that “We’re better than this” (the truth being that there’s a lot of dirty behaviour on their own side too).

    And so it goes on: a classic invented story that manages to insinuate without any names, context, evidence, witnesses or investigation that Luke Foley is about to be spilled out of the Labor leadership for unsavoury (but unspecified) behaviour by an equally disgusting replacement who’s just as bad, if not worse than the creep he’s replacing. An unstoppable tsunami of grottiness, as set out in exactly four stories in the SMH, each more desperate to run a smear than the last.

    Nice work if you can get it, Debbie.

  16. Weird argument from Coorey – the government is flush with money therefore they can afford to take money from the NDIS fund.

    If the government is flush with money, they can afford NOT to take money from the NDIS fund.

  17. Once more with feeling. Her staffer’s assessment of Julia.

    As prime minister, she ran a disciplined, professional office. Cabinet process was strictly upheld and the massive flow of administrative and policy paperwork that moves between government departments, the prime minister’s office and the PM’s desk was dealt with efficiently.

    She was impeccably courteous to staff, MPs, public servants and stakeholders – every person entitled to a view was given a chance to express it before a decision was made.

    She was generous with her time and did not rush people in the way busy leaders often do. She was never rude and never raised her voice, unless for humorous purposes.

    She was a genuinely affectionate person and had a quick wit that could be deployed to lift the spirits of those around her. At her instigation, birthdays were the subject of office celebration. This would involve Gillard turning up for cake and delivering a very personal speech to even the most junior staff.

    Significantly for a national leader, Gillard had no major personality defects. She is probably the most normal, down-to-earth person to have served as prime minister of Australia in the modern era.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/how-will-history-remember-julia-gillard-20181025-p50bxn.html?platform=hootsuite

  18. zoomster

    “The Canberra Bubble” is just weird. It thinks that Bill Shorten listening to voters (even conservative Wentworth voters) is listening to “The Canberra Bubble” if you listen to Morrison.

    The gallery seems to have the same disconnect.

  19. Peter Hannam@p_hannam

    “Hi folks: Seeking feedback about the media’s climate coverage. Prompted in part by @abcnews coverage of Govt spending to ‘drought proofing’ Australia with no mention about the climate; plus I’m on a panel in a week or 2. So, what do we do well or poorly, and what are we missing?”

  20. adrian @ #684 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 10:40 am

    Peter Hannam@p_hannam

    “Hi folks: Seeking feedback about the media’s climate coverage. Prompted in part by @abcnews coverage of Govt spending to ‘drought proofing’ Australia with no mention about the climate; plus I’m on a panel in a week or 2. So, what do we do well or poorly, and what are we missing?”

    Where to start! … 🙁

  21. Prompted in part by @abcnews coverage of Govt spending to ‘drought proofing’ Australia with no mention about the climate

    It’s the same with this bogus ‘debate’ about electricity prices. We should be talking about reducing our GHGEs because of AGW.

  22. Morrison’s pretending not to be part of the Canberra Bubble is exactly analagous to Trump pretending not to be part of the Washington Swamp: politicians pretending not to be politicians.

  23. RE Luke Foley and NSW Labor

    There are two reason I will not vote Labor in NSW;

    1) my local MP for Canterbury is a major homophobe

    2) Labor will not complete stage 2 of the Metro (Sydenham to Bankstown)

    The fake Luke Foley scandal does not interest me, I think he is a nice enough guy but I don’t feel he is genuine. Also I didn’t like his lack of leadership on safe schools.

  24. guytaur:

    The Pittsburgh shooting suspect will apparently face hate-crime charges.

    And I’d never heard of social media platform Gab until today.

  25. Fess

    Ditto on the Gab platform.

    The scary thing is as BW correctly points out Morrison is following the Trump playbook.

    Edit: Its good that paypal has suspended Gab payments as its reaction to the news.

  26. Signs say “End Traffic Chaos”. “Cutting your bills”. “Jail the gangs”. “Cutting taxes”. “Get back in control”.

    How about “Where are the women?”

  27. Zoomster

    Coorey was referring to the much higher than expected rate of ongoing tax collections, currently (in the September quarter) and projected during this financial year. (ie what dollars are flowing in, not what dollars are currently “in the bank”.)

    For drought relief, they need the dollars already collected and “in the bank” Hence the NDIS “borrowing”.

    Nothing procedurally strange or illogic.

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