BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 13 of 19
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  1. Puff

    I understand all that. I still don’t see that if you’re injured in a car accident, you should be treated differently because you’re in the service.

    I could point out many jobs where ‘there are no comparisons’ with others – for example, a school teacher is on duty 24/7 during a school camp, and can be for weeks, with no extra pay. A doctor or ambulance driver or vet (animal one) can be called out at 3 am in the morning. A firefighter can be expected to leave home for weeks at a time… etc etc etc.

    It’s a job. It isn’t holy orders.

  2. Andrew_Earlwood:

    [‘It’s the reason why the watermelon Greens hate the ALP today.’]

    Given the Greens ususally preference Labor to the tune of upwards of 75%, I think you’re overstating the matter. For Labor to form government, the Greens are crucial. That might not be to everyone’s taste, but it is nonetheless a fact. True it is, for instance, that if it were not for the Greens, Rudd’s ETS would’ve got up, but that’s history now and we should accordingly move on, calling the Greens out when the occasion arises, such as when they support the conservatives, but falling short of labelling them as the enemy.

  3. I can appreciate that people do not like the Royal Family or any of its members, and/or anything military or anything nationalistic or anything sport.

    But I dare anyone to watch the speech Harry just gave at the Games closing, to a world or at least very large TV audience, in which he specifically and at length addressed mental health, and tell me that he is wrong, and that anyone’s cynicism has won out.

    I am going back to his Opening and Closing speeches to listen again.

    This is as significant as Princess Diana holding the hands of that AIDS patient and it is Harry carrying on his Mother’s legacy.

    Put me down as a supporter.

  4. “Given the Greens ususally preference Labor to the tune of upwards of 75%, I think you’re overstating the matter.”

    Upwards of 75% of Green voters are bohobos, tree Tories or perhaps tree Whigs. The watermelon greens I’m referring to are one of the two hard core factions of actual party operatives that are in a death spiral for control of the organs of the party – at least in nsw.

  5. Cud

    I have offered what I have offered

    I would respectfully suggest that you continue your education such that you acquire comprehension skills, which you obviously lack

  6. Andrew
    i aree that the immigration issue is not directly the result of the EU but the dominance of Germany is.
    The euro was probably a bigger isse. also the technocratic form of control and the fact that it is not deliverin for averae workers

  7. tom
    the actual states of India are not so widely different differences are within states – caste, relgion etc

    marriage practices are within caste not region so populations better integrated

    also common colonial heritage for 300 years

    also universal lingua franca ie english

    also Indian people travel – a lot

    not sure that very diverent states eg Kashmir or assam are as comfortable in the union.

  8. DTT:-

    The EU is a great way for Germany to assume the dominance of Europe it thoroughly deserves without involving Panzer tanks or crackpot Nationalism.

    Until a couple of million of refugees turned up most folk throughout the Continent were prepared to accept that: a bit of Order and Schnell without the Strum und Drang. What!

  9. @Pseudo Cud Chewer

    As an Economics graduate, MMT is so full of shit that its eyes are brown. Following it leads, specifically and inevitably, to hyperinflation – each and every time it’s been tried.

    Weimar Germany printed money from nothing to pay war reparations after WWI. Net result: 3,000% inflation per month for a year.

    Venezuela thinks that money is nothing and prints it to fund its massive expenditures. Net result: 300% inflation per month for a year and rising.

    Rome endured hyperinflation in the 3rd Century CE, when a series of short-ruling Emperors needed to find a way to finance their “accession bonuses” to the legions, and cut the value of gold and silver in the coinage to mint more – creating money out of nothing. Net result: Large swathes of the Empire started paying their taxes in-kind, rather than use the worthless “money”.

    The Nationalist Chinese started running the printing presses in the late 1940s, as the tide turned to favour the Communist insurgents. The highest-value Yuan note issued was 50,000 Yuan in 1946 – in 1949, it was 180,000,000 Yuan. Net result: 4,000% inflation per month from 1947 to 1949.

    The new Communist Government in Hungary started printing pengo (the Hungarian currency at that time) to finance its spending, without first checking if there was any production capacity to back it up. Net result: By mid-1946, prices in pengo were doubling every fifteen hours.

    Various Peruvian Governments adhered to proto-MMT through the 1970s and 1980s, simply printing cash to finance their expenses. Net result: Two currency changes from 1982 to 1992 (“Sol” to “Inti” to “Nuevo Sol”), and an estimated cumulative 2,200,200% inflation rate over five years (1985-1990).

    MMT – the idea that money can simply be “dropped out of helicopters”, as Friedman put it, has been tried. It’s failed. Bury it with the rest of the Soviet paraphernalia; the USSR lost the Cold War and left Western social democrats holding the wreckage.

  10. Late Riser says:
    Saturday, October 27, 2018 at 10:31 pm

    “I agree, this man has outgrown his titles. Like us, he has no need of them.”

    Many of us could do great things if we did not have to work for a living and had the ability to travel the world and access to many of the worlds leaders.

  11. Pseudo,
    maybe many PBers are like me…love being informed, entertained by this blog but mostly have nothing of note to add to the discussions?

  12. They have a super quick electronic count in Brasil, so in a little over 24 hours Bolsonaro will be President-elect.

    At times like this I return to my old maxim –

    “No politician turns out to be as bad as you fear, similarly none turn out to be as good as you hope”

  13. Good morning

    Gittins. This “baseline scenario” assumes no change in government policy. That’s the point: it’s intended to show the world’s governments how great is the need for them to make a policy response.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/world-growth-a-toxic-danger-for-the-environment-20181026-p50c3l.html
    Compared to international pension funds, Aussie super funds were found to deliver below benchmark returns when they invested member funds in both domestic and international shares.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/average-super-fund-member-could-be-400-000-better-off-report-finds-20181026-p50c7k.html
    Transport infrastructure is still being retrofitted to suburbs as they sprawl outwards instead of being there before all the people arrive. “The urban growth boundary needs to stay fixed,” Committee for Melbourne chief executive Martine Letts said this week. “We need to take the foot off the pedal and work on creating liveable density.”
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/mistakes-of-the-past-need-not-dictate-melbourne-s-future-20181026-p50c9d.html
    “I would have to say that it being raised in the Senate by Abetz threw a curveball for us,” one senior Labor MP said. “Until then, I think most of us really thought it would go away. But that was the game-changer.”
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/nsw/the-christmas-party-that-sparked-luke-foley-s-week-from-hell-20181026-p50c3k.html
    A lone fingerprint and a set of misspellings helped point FBI agents to a Florida man with a long criminal record now charged with mailing homemade bombs to prominent critics of President Donald Trump.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/stray-fingerprint-and-bad-spelling-pointed-to-bomb-suspect-20181027-p50ccu.html
    An official in Pittsburgh reported that at least four people were dead and at least 12 people had been shot after a gunman opened fire at a synagogue on Saturday morning.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/pittsburgh-synagogue-shooting-leaves-several-dead-official-says-20181028-p50ceu.html
    A constitutional crisis in Sri Lanka deepened on Saturday as President Maithripala Sirisena temporarily suspended parliament a day after sacking the prime minister and replacing him with a former leader seen as being close to China.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/sri-lankan-president-suspends-parliament-after-firing-prime-minister-20181028-p50ces.html
    “The loyal, or lazy, customer may be better off but for those who go looking for good deals, they may be worse off as the good deals may disappear because the market is less competitive,” Mr Wood told Fairfax Media.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/states-agree-on-simpler-system-to-potentially-lower-electricity-prices-20181026-p50c86.html
    In Zimbabwe, where conservation is increasingly a battlefield, a group of all-female anti-poaching rangers are on the frontline — protecting one of the world’s largest elephant populations.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-28/akashinga-the-female-fighters-protecting-wildlife-in-zimbabwe/10418542
    Members of the Northern Territory’s youth detention royal commission say the controversial Don Dale facility is not fit for purpose, and its replacement should be fast-tracked.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/don-dale-replacements-2021-due-date-extraordinary/10437398
    The ACCC steps in to address the issue of companies making and selling fake Aboriginal art, saying the lack of authenticity is causing the wider industry to be “impacted negatively”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/fake-aboriginal-art-is-hurting-the-whole-industry,-says-accc/10437056
    The Greens and anti-corruption campaigners have urged Labor and the Liberals to reveal the corporate participants of their respective business forums, saying an analysis suggests almost 100 businesses could be paying tens of thousands of dollars to mix with politicians.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/28/liberals-and-labor-urged-to-come-clean-on-business-paying-for-political-access
    The New South Wales government has quietly tabled a piece of legislation that, if passed, will have a lasting impact on the lives of thousands of children taken into state care every year.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/27/fears-of-another-stolen-generation-after-new-south-wales-move-on-foster-care
    The speeches were among Obama’s sharpest and most direct critiques of his successor, but he was careful to not mention Trump by name.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/27/barack-obama-takes-aim-at-donald-trump-for-making-stuff-up-us-midterms
    Paul Daley traces the arc of a once quiet and dignified commemoration to a modern sound-and-light show
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/28/the-story-of-us-how-the-inflated-anzac-myth-obscures-our-national-identity
    Alex Turnbull. We joked the ACCC’s good advice could be turned into a policy to subsidise companies that own coal. Turns out that’s what happened
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/27/coalition-embraces-economic-vandalism-with-worst-possible-energy-policy
    Many motorists carried eccentric repair kits, due to the ever-present likelihood of a breakdown. Soap could be popped in the petrol tank to plug a leak. Crack a couple of eggs into the radiator and they would coagulate over any holes or cracks. Open anyone’s boot and you could prepare a meal for five and then wash up afterwards.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/get-your-motor-running-or-at-least-try-20181022-p50b7n.html


  14. Matt says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 12:53 am

    @Pseudo Cud Chewer
    ..

    Matt in all you example the money supply exceeded the production capacity of the economy.
    MMT simple states the bleeding obvious. The government owns the printing press as a result.
    1) Taxation does not give the government something it does not have; it is used to destroy something it creates so there is room in the economy for it to create the common goods, all the at stuff right wing nutters say doesn’t exist like roads, justice, education, you know all that stuff that separates us from the baboons.
    2) Government bonds can be used to take money out of the private economy. Interest on government bonds injects money into the private economy. Just another monetary tool.
    3) The most important; Australia is a net borrower; if the government doesn’t run a deficit then the private sector has to. The private sector has maxed out it’s credit card so there can no longer be a government surplus without a recession.
    4) The sin we can place on the future generation is a lack of education, a stuffed planet and no infrastructure. Not some number in a computer.

    The Liberals are currently running a very large deficit, greater than Labor ever have. hey might be raiding the treasury, spending it in the wrong place, but it’s about the only thing they have got right; assuming they don’t create large overseas liabilities like buying expansive military hardware.

    The damage done by the Costello years has to be undone.

  15. lizzie (Block)
    Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 6:46 am
    Comment #625

    Good morning to you.

    Lots of material to view. I have had a look at several of the items. One in particular,
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/get-your-motor-running-or-at-least-try-20181022-p50b7n.html
    triggered a response. So much so that I’m off to make some toast and I will then, with my motor started, be able to go through the items featured.

    Thank you for the excellent 👍Dawn Patrol. 👍

  16. Tony Windsor
    ‏@TonyHWindsor
    10h

    Under our Constitution no one Government can bind a future Govt to anything …Morrison and Joyce know that in regard to the Drought /NDIS future fund …that’s why it starts in 2020 , after they have left the premises ..wake up Australia , they are frauds .

  17. There is a Galaxy poll in Murdoch tabloids, still hunting for voting intention, but Murdoch may be signalling he wants a change in refugee policy – can he bang hard enough on Scotty’s tin ear?

    “SAVE the children: This is the overwhelming message voters have delivered the Coalition government in an exclusive poll on refugee policy.

    While more than 60 per cent support strong border protection laws, the YouGov Galaxy poll also reveals 79 per cent of Australians want the government to transfer refugee children and their families from detention on Nauru and accept a longstanding offer from New Zealand to resettle them.

    The poll, commissioned by The Sunday Telegraph, shows half believe resettling the families would be a step in the right direction and would not “open the floodgates” to new waves of refugees.

    …….

    With the Morrison government facing a possible wipe-out at the next federal election, the poll of 1027 voters across Australia also found the Coalition could boost its standing by accepting the New Zealand deal.

    About one in four voters said they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition if it agreed to resettlement, while 44 per cent said it would not influence their vote.

    Support for the plan was highest among the young, with more than a third of Millennials saying they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition, according to the poll, conducted between Oct­ober 17 and 22.

    Half of those questioned believe Australia had a moral obligation to find permanent homes for kids stuck on Nauru, including 61 per cent of younger voters.

  18. Self-appointed militia groups are planning to head to the Mexican border to help halt the caravan of Central American migrants heading to the US.
    Border Patrol officials have already warned landowners in Texas that it expects “possible armed civilians” to go onto their properties because of the caravan.

    The activists, who are raising money for their plan, are planning to arm themselves with guns and bulletproof vests in an effort to secure America’s border against the caravan of about 4,000 people.

    It is dividing opinion among US citizens and fuelling fears of vigilantism.

    And Trump is fuelling the fear by claiming that “unknown Middle Easterners” were among the crowd. However, the migrants are still 1,000 miles and weeks away from reaching the border. They are fleeing rampant gang violence and poverty in Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/migrant-caravan-us-armed-militia-groups-mexico-texas-border-trump-immigration-a8604371.html

  19. ‘Results could have been much better’: Trump blames synagogue for not having armed guards after mass shooting

    President Donald Trump is blaming The Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh for not having armed guards after a white male gunman walked in Saturday morning and shot eight people to death.

    “The results could have been much better,” if armed guards had been present President Trump told reporters as he headed to a campaign rally, one of two he will hold Saturday.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/results-much-better-trump-blames-synagogue-not-armed-guards-mass-shooting/

    Brian Krassenstein‏ @krassenstein

    Trump on Tree of Life Synagogue shooting: “If they had some kind of protection inside the Temple, maybe it could have been a different situation”

    The guy used an AR-15 to shoot 3 highly trained SWAT team members.

    Stop Blaming the victims while the bodies are still warm. IDIOT!

  20. Pittsburgh Synagogue Attack Is The 294th Mass Shooting In the U.S. In 2018

    With Saturday’s deadly attack at a Pittsburgh synagogue, there have now been nearly 300 mass shootings in the United States in 2018.

    According to the Gun Violence Archive, 294 mass shooting incidents have taken place this year – and today is the 300th day of the year.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/10/27/synagogue-attack-294th-shooting.html

    * There is no fixed definition of a mass shooting, but a common definition is an act of violence — excluding gang killings, domestic violence, or terrorist acts sponsored by an organization — in which a gunman kills/injures at least four victims

  21. Morning all. Thanks Lizzie. Another random political attack in USA by a middle aged white man. How long before the finger is pointed at Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric for inciting violence?

  22. When we have an #ICAC can it be a computer system where it picks politicians at random for corruption and then won’t give any evidence about why they are corrupt, but they are guilty unless they can prove the evidence the system won’t give them, is wrong. You know. Like Robodebt.

  23. Bw
    And the same industry that sold those AR15 rifles in USA is now lobbying to water down our gun laws. Any politician who takes money from them should be named and shamed.

  24. Lizzie – thanks for the “BK in absentia”round up. It must take quite a bit of time even to do it for a few days. BKs regular service is invaluable.

  25. lizzie

    For the past six months I have been conducting a straw poll in which I ask people whether they think there is now more wind, less wind or the same amount of wind compared with a decade ago.
    Most are unsure but there is small tendency to think that there is more wind than there used to be. So much for anecdotal evidence.
    There are two consequences of less wind that come to mind:
    1. Water in storages will evaporate more slowly, making more available for irrigation and the like.
    2. Assuming that near-shore winds have also slowed somewhat, there will be less mixing of water resulting in a trend of higher SSTs and a greater likelihood of more frequent and more intense coral death events.

  26. max

    The summary takes me about an hour of concentrated work (have to get up early!) but I don’t do as comprehensive job as BK. He really deserves bouquets for his dedication and his incisive comments.

  27. Boerwar

    Yes, I found that wind stilling piece interesting because it runs contrary to belief. There was some idea that it might affect wind farms in the future.

  28. ‘Socrates says:
    Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 8:09 am

    Bw
    And the same industry that sold those AR15 rifles in USA is now lobbying to water down our gun laws. Any politician who takes money from them should be named and shamed.’

    The locals are already using the NRA as a template: For example: The Shooting Industry Foundation:

    https://sifa.net.au/newsroom/media-releases/

    A practical example:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/15/peter-dutton-considering-request-for-gun-importers-to-review-rule-changes

  29. https://www.smh.com.au/national/cash-in-hand-economy-and-illegal-drugs-trade-costing-australia-billions-20130912-2tnmv.html

    Yes, I know this report is from 2013.

    Cash-in-hand economy and illegal drugs trade costing Australia billions

    Australia’s black economy and illegal drugs trade are officially worth $30 billion a year.

    The Bureau of Statistics has estimated the nation’s “underground production” – otherwise known as the cash economy – is worth 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product or about $24 billion a year.

    The annual trade in illegal drugs is worth another 0.4 per cent of GDP or about $6.5 billion a year.

    The bureau said the cash economy thrived in sectors of the economy where there was a low level of regulation and a high proportion of cash transactions.

    The plan. Develop a system whereby the kingpins the overlords the dealer,
    the

    •drug trafficker.
    •bagman.
    •candy man.
    •connection.
    •dope peddler.
    •dope pusher.
    •drug peddler.

    — can come in from the cold (thanks John le Carré) and after suitable rehabilitation and training in the fine art of (whatever fine art politicians are trained in) take over the management of the Australian Economy and policy development generally – particularly in regard to – well – everthing really.

    Foreign policy – shirtfronting a speciality.

    PBS system overhaul – first 100 days.

    Mid Winter Ball – every month.

    Tax receipts – enhanced collection courtesy of

    The Duke, The Munster, The Frog, Chopper, Fat Tony and Squizzy among our best known of Aussie crooks. new style politicians.

    Law enforcement.
    See —
    lizzie (Block)
    Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:01 am
    Comment #640

    When we have an #ICAC can it be a computer system where it picks politicians at random for corruption and then won’t give any evidence about why they are corrupt, but they are guilty unless they can prove the evidence the system won’t give them, is wrong. You know. Like Robodebt.

    Investigations manufactured to suit prosecution requirements. Correctional system overhauled to provide suitable incarceration of previously upmarket style convicts.

    Dress code for politicians on the go – having a go – and that. (One of our family friends – a high school science teacher ended almost every sentence with and that.) Where do they keep their notebooks, pistols etc ❓

    Tails off to continue with Coffee and Toast with Vegemite.
    Oh ❗ And what to do with the previous bunch of politicians – – Perhaps extended holidays on Nauru and Manus Island.

  30. All over the world, the wind is slowing. Bit by bit, low-level land wind speeds have been decreasing since reliable records began in the 1970s. It is called “the stilling”

    It’s the bloody Wind Turbines I tells ya. They started putting them up in numbers in the 1970s ! Such claims coming soon to a Shoutback Radio station or News Ltd media outlet near you 🙂

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