BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. C

    ‘Just out of curiosity, what are the benefits of Brexit’

    The bosses are going to be able to screw workers, the poor, the sick and the environment?

  2. I will restrict my involvement to my opinion that MMT is just plain wrong – and dangerous

    No doubt in regards Money Supply and the Payments System googling those subjects will produce a result – and education

    And I would hope that the Invictus Games become redundant with education, tolerance and respect

  3. Thanks Boerwar. I guessed this was the rationale in many quarters, but haven’t followed the issue extensively or closely enough to form an informed opinion. Brexit always sounded like a bad idea to me, and nothing I’ve read since has convinced me otherwise.

  4. Boerwar

    The bosses are going to be able to screw workers, the poor, the sick and the environment?

    Right on Bro. I mean totally unlike how the Tories and Tony Blairies have screwed the workers,poor,sick and the environment whilst in the Euro Club eh ?

  5. As survivors of the Imperialist order, those of us in the dominions and colonies know a thing or two about British subjugation. They will soon be subjugating their own.

  6. poroti
    You just know in your heart that the reason that Boris and May and their mates are pushing Brexit is for the good of the vast British Underclass, right?

  7. zoomster:

    [‘Someone who is discharged for medical reasons is generally well looked after.’]

    Disability pensions for ADF personnel are some of the most generous in the world.

    For instance, those in receipt of a TPI pension receive $1414 per fortnight, which is tax free. Additionally, they receive a Gold Card which entitles them to free health and dental care, and they are exempt the Medicare Levy. On top of that, if they have eligible service (ie, warlike service) they receive the Service Pension at age 60, at the full rate or pro-rata depending upon their financial circumstances, which is not taxable until they reach 65. TPI’s also don’t pay the GST on new cars & parts. There are also a number of other benefits that are far too numerous to mention here.

    There are of course quite a number who fall through the cracks, but overall, in my experience, Veterans are very well looked after. And, moreover, DVA is a very efficient, helpful department.

    On the down side, however, many Vets who’ve served in wars/conflicts have multiple general and mental health issues to deal with. The suicide rate is far higher than civilians, families are untowardly affected due to afflictions such as PTSD, clinical depression, generalised anxiety disorders, drug and alcohol addiction.

  8. There is no formal economic assessment of what has already happened and what is likely to happen that predicts that the UK will be better off under ANY Brexit scenario.
    Not one.
    There ARE promises of Farage, of course. And Farage has publicly admitted that he lied. So, go no further in the promises department.
    It will not be a case of trickle down. It will be a case of pissing it away.

  9. Observer,
    One effect that may eventually come from The Invictus Games is the realisation that real people getting really harmed in really bad ways and maybe war is not a good idea. Wounded and maimed soldiers et al usually get hidden in the shadows, an unhappy reminder that not everyone comes back alive or intact.

    This time they have a stage and a presence.

    Let’s hope the Invictus Games will become redundant one day. Until then, it is good.

  10. https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/10/26/bludgertrack-53-2-46-8-labor-6/comment-page-11/#comment-2989240

    Rejecting as much as possible of Europe having many of its laws made by the democratically elected European Parliament is not victory for democracy, it is a major defeat. Splitting up the USA, India, Brazil or some other major federated democracy would be similarly harmful to overall democratic government.

    It means joint economic decisions are made by the comparative morass of international trade diplomacy, which is far more influenced by vested interests and therefore has far less progressive outcomes than a democratically elected parliament. It also means that decisions can be taken that competing jurisdictions would usually not make in order to out-compete each other.

    It also means a victory for Putin`s proto-Czarism dividing Europe.

    The Executive Branch of the EU is a mess but the solution is to make it wholly responsible to the democratically elected EU Parliament, just like each of the EU member-state governments are to their respective Parliament, also making EU elections more about EU government and less like a bunch of by-elections against member-state government.

    The gold standard like situation with the Eurozone needs fixing but the way to fix it is to give an EU, with a democratised executive (as described above) and reduced member-state veto, the general national government powers that allow a fare single currency zone. These include: the majority of taxation, unemployment benefits/insurance, public healthcare funding, retirement income provision, most industrial relations, defence and foreign affairs.

  11. C
    ‘Except wasn’t the Tory party under May’s predecessor opposed and that’s why he resigned when the Brexit vote came up yes?’
    Perhaps we can politely ascribe political dill status to Cameron.

  12. Observer the idea that a government has the same budgetary constraint as a household is also plain wrong and clearly dangerous. Governments can and do “print money” and while I don’t fully understand the implications, clearly there is a lot of nonsense tied up in classic economic theory.

  13. AM

    Thanks, that was my impression.

    I did a bit of research on this because there were facebook posts going around which were obviously from the US, very crudely altered to make it seem as if they applied to the Australian situation.

    I’ve no doubt there are some people who fall through the cracks, and others who think they should get more than they’re getting. That happens with every system.

  14. Boerwar

    In the same way ‘Dave’ had his heart set on helping all the peasants who were not Old Etonians.
    Dave and Boris back in the good old days.

  15. TTFAB

    ‘Rejecting as much as possible of Europe having many of its laws made by the democratically elected European Parliament is not victory for democracy, it is a major defeat. ‘

    Indeed. The Left used to be supporters of internationalism and multilateralism. The British Left joining with the British extreme Right at exploiting cheap nationalism exposes the UK workers increasingly to the enormous power of the multi-nationals which have absolutely no compunction about nationalism.

  16. I am just putting this here and not saying a word about our PM Morrison and Minister Pyne. But I am laughing my guts up.

    Prince Harry, Meghan shun reserved area to sit with crowd They didn't join Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Defence Minister Christopher Pyne or ambassadors David Beckham and Ian Thorpe in a reserved area. https://t.co/ZYdOGosg97 via @canberratimes— lynlinking (@lynlinking) October 27, 2018

  17. Puffy

    I think there’s a distinction between people who signed up (or were conscripted) in a World War situation and those who take it up as a career. I really don’t see, for example, why a serviceperson who gets injured when they’re not at work should be treated differently from anybody else – for example, a serviceperson who is in a car accident should be looking to the TAC for support, not the Defence Department.

  18. Boerwar

    exposes the UK workers increasingly to the enormous power of the multi-nationals

    Unlike of course how they are being screwed by the same companies now ? Same shit different name is all.

  19. Ye, gads.

    Nicholas in full Propellor Cap Boy mode pontificating over the whole Brexit shitstorm. The hard boiled left hate the EU, not because it is a “Neoliberal” institution, but precisely because it is not: in truth it represents the very epitome of post WW2 social democracy. The left hate it because there would be no raison de atre for them – i.e. superior intellects who dictate how the proletariat should spend every waking hour – if the EU project were to succeed. It’s the same reason why Lenin hated the Labour movements in the 1920s. It’s the reason why the watermelon Greens hate the ALP today.

  20. Tom

    I think what you say is probably outated conventional clap trap.

    The problemwith Europe (and the USA in fact) is the vast disparity of wealth between the countries and the fact that some states are mendicant states. Now it is hard enough here in Australia where people resent supporting Tasmania. Imagine if there are langauae, cultural, governance differences plus a history of warfare over the last 100 years.

    Europe expanded too fast so that the dependency factor is way too high. States should NOT have been admitted until thir economies were such that they required minimal support from other members. The Euro has made it worse for states like Greece who cannot devalue their currency to boost tourism. Then add the buraucratic non democratic governance in Brussels and the dominance of Germany and you have a recipe for disaster. Throw in the whole open border issue and I doubt Europe can survive.

  21. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-27/wentworth-by-election-trouncing-scott-morrison/10432928

    A change in direction? Not quite…
    In fact, the result was not only not a reflection on the Government, it wasn’t even a reflection on the electorate!

    The voters of Wentworth, it seems, are an aberration that don’t reflect actual voters across the rest of the country.

    Normally, a government that has had such a by-election trouncing, or even one that — according to the latest Newspoll — is trailing magnificently in every single state in the country, might have pause for thought.

    It might think: “Well something isn’t quite working here. Maybe we need to change direction, and dramatically?”

  22. The thing is, like our Republic vote, Brexit was not supposed to pass. A referendum was promised to get a right wing Government through what looked like a tight election. The ploy worked for our Tories but backfired on the British.

  23. Andrew

    If the EU ha stuck with its original members it may have been a powerful force for stability and a statement of the value of democratic systems.

    However it was a success because in the 60s-2000 it rode a wave of growth in europe so that the demands of workers were minimal since much was being achieved. The “capture” of the western democracies by the worst of the greedy finacial sector means that the issues that troubled workers and the Labour Movement in the 30s have returned.

    Add to that the iunclusion of states with only limited experience with democratic norms and you have a conglomeration which is no loner the shinin liught for democracy

  24. Puffymtd:

    [‘This time they have a stage and a presence.’]

    Entirely agree, many witnessing first hand the gruesome aspects of war. And although a republican, I think Harry and Meghan are doing a splendid job promoting the Invictus Games.

  25. Cud

    It is the responsibility of government to manage across the economic cycle – using both monetary and fiscal policies including money supply both as stimulus and as contractionary dependent on the cycle

    And that makes government fundamentally different to households and to businesses

    Always has, always will – until you get right wing neo liberal idealogy and the misguided belief that austerity leads to confidence and recovery which I do not and never have supported

    And I repeat that MMT is a nonsense proposition in my view

  26. DTT
    There is no doubt the EU, and indeed NATO for that matter, screwed the pooch when inviting the detritus of the Warsaw Pact onto its bossum post the end of the Cold War. Of course, that’s hindsight reasoning.

    Further, I note the immigration stress that Europe is currently suffering – and which drove Brexit and Marie Le Pen etc – is not driven by polish trades and handymen undercutting the local Labor market; rather it is a direct by-product of the faith based arrogance of the Chaney-Rummy-Wolfowitz policies of the Dubya administration, coupled with the Obama naivety that providence would see the Arab Spring herald the “New Jerusalem” of modern democracies in the Middle East.

  27. Observer the “cycle” as you put it pays too much respect to the notion of a budget deficit. The absurdity of a government maintaining a budget “balance” when in fact it does print the money is one of the most destructive ideas around.

  28. Zoomster
    Because when you join the Armed Services, you are always in the service, 24/7/365.
    Within that service you have a job. If you are injured in the Service, whether on the frontline or falling over in your shower, you are an injured serviceperson.
    There is a distinction from the Department of Veteran’s Affairs regarding categories of injuries and battle injuries get more entitlements (Gold Card).

    There is no comparison between armed service and civilian jobs. Your employer cannot ring you up at 3am in the middle of your holidays and tell you to leave at 6am to Eff Knows Wheresistan to start killing people.

  29. briefly @ #512 Saturday, October 27th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    Player One says:
    Saturday, October 27, 2018 at 5:46 pm
    briefly @ #466 Saturday, October 27th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    The disagreements are about the long term consequences of simply creating money without regard to the underlying realities. Inflation is the first consequence, but there are others – all the way (ultimately) to complete economic collapse.

    Who posits that creating money will lead to economic collapse? Who? We have been “simply creating money” for decades.

    No, in general we have not. Not in the sense that MMT proposes, which is to create money without (for example) purchasing bonds to compensate.

    Like Dire Straits, MMT promises “money for nothing”.

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