Not the Wentworth by-election thread

Some preselection news, and a thread for discussion of political matters not directly related to the Wentworth by-election count.

For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.

• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.

• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Not the Wentworth by-election thread”

Comments Page 3 of 31
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  1. Morrison talks and acts like a player in over his head, past his use by date, not the best to lead, not the best in his position, totally unaware of the realities and soon to feel the loneliness of friendless abandonment.
    The LNP has had their chance and have been unable to deliver. No one is believing them.

  3. Ignore my question William – I checked with Kevin B’s calculations … will be knife edge stuff in the next few days, methinks!

  4. jenauthor says:
    Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 10:47 am
    Sheeeit! I calculate if remaining postals all come in, and run the same percentages as now – Sharma will win by about 900 votes … hope I am wrong!

    It’s looking very very tight now, to say the least.

  5. I was thinking exactly this yesterday.

    Matt Bevan Verified account@MatthewBevan
    3m3 minutes ago
    Watching the AEC do their job in Wentworth is very reassuring. Just wait til you see the trainwreck of the US midterms voting process. It’s going to be an omnishambles.

  8. I have seen on Twitter that Jane Caro is being encouraged to run against Tony in Warringah. She hasn’t thrown her hat in the ring yet. I wonder how much influence the Wentworth result will have.

  10. Yeah, I calculate Sharma will win by 1000+ if current 64.4 to 36.6 for postals continues, with 7800 postals remaining.

    I wonder if Sharma is happy with that?

  11. Simon² Katich® says:
    Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 11:12 am

    Yeah, I calculate Sharma will win by 1000+ if current 64.4 to 36.6 for postals continues, with 7800 postals remaining.

    I wonder if Sharma is happy with that?
    _______________________
    He would be ecstatic of course. Now he’s in, the protest vote has expressed itself and he can build a personal following, if he can.

  12. The significant stratification by the postal votes, almost all posted before last weekend, go to demonstrate just how much Morrison’s frenetic insertion of himself into proceedings during the past week. Nice job Scott!

  14. Tony Windsor‏ @TonyHWindsor · 4h4 hours ago

    I’m hearing you are running in Warringha @JaneCaro .Is that true ? If so I would be honoured to help in any way if it was useful in some way . I really hope you do run.
    THE WORLD IS RUN BY THOSE WHO TURN UP.

  15. SK:

    I’ve said before the US claim to a democracy is tenuous to say the least. So many Americans denied their right to vote, or have it made so difficult for them to vote, they simply don’t bother.

  17. The president of the United States was the runner-up in the popular vote. The majority in the US Senate got fewer votes than the minority. And even if Democrats win a hefty majority of the vote in 2018’s House elections, Republicans, due to gerrymandering and geography, may retain control of the chamber.

    But it’s not just the structure of our system that eats at America’s democratic claims. It’s the rules being layered on top of it. In 2017, 99 bills to limit voting have been introduced in 31 states. Recent years have seen an explosion of laws meant to make it harder for Americans — particularly nonwhite, young, and poorer Americans — to vote. America calls itself a democracy, but it’s elected officials are actively working to make democratic participation harder.

    https://art19.com/shows/the-ezra-klein-show/episodes/3945de07-3d62-480c-89c8-1314a5401450

  18. adrian says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 7:11 pm

    I predicted this 6 months ago…

    steve davis says:
    Saturday, October 20, 2018 at 7:02 pm

    I called it at 2.33pm
    _____________________________
    idiots.

  19. poroti says:
    Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 11:16 am

    Bloody postal votes that were in before last week. Bugger
    _______________________
    I don’t think that had much to do with it. Clearly the libs ran a good pre poll operation and got their supporters locked in before they saw the cut outs of MT.

  22. I would counsel remaining calm and waiting for the AEC to do their job rather than jumping to conclusions. There are not going to be 7800 postal votes to count – see William’s discussion of this at the top of the by-election live thread. It will, undoubtedly, be very close, so let’s just calm down and let the experts do their jobs.

  26. Well even if I was losing 47-53 on the night I wouldn’t concede. Haven’t you read The Art of the Deal? You dispute it and take everyone to court.

  27. nath says:

    That Bill Shorten couldn’t get Wentworth off the Libs indicates he does have questions to answer.

    Is that you Rex ?

  32. Guytaur I’m not knocking Antony Green. I can’t recall anyone disagreeing with his call last night. It was an unusual by-election in many ways. I thought it was all over when the first 2 booths came in but we know what they say about assumptions.

  33. The result in Wentworth illustrates once again how useless single-seat polls are.

    Although the final polls nearest election day did match the election day vote.

  36. I thought Morrison was a Sunday churchgoer (if you can call Hillsong gatherings a church). Or perhaps he has a private family session at home, leading the prayers.

  37. Kevjohnno

    The mistake was in not having staff to count the known postal votes due to the election being held on the Sabbath if you wanted a result on the night.

  40. Malcolm Farr

    Prime Minister Morrison last night made a crass comparison between the courageous survivors in the Invictus Games and the battered Liberals of Wentworth.

    “Tonight I had the great privilege to be joining those — and I don’t want to make a political point out about this — at the Invictus Games. But Invictus is all about the indomitable spirit. That’s what it’s about. And we pay tribute to all of those who were there this evening and will contest over the next week,” he said.

    “But you know, we’ve got an indomitable spirit in this party.”

    The difference of course is the servicemen and women were wounded by the enemy; the Liberals’ wounds were self-inflicted.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/horrified-shudder-runs-through-the-liberal-party-in-wake-of-wentworth-humiliation/news-story/420b7ef75731a1451809a2cd461744c9

  43. As Antony Green himself said, he’s never seen a turnaround in Postal Votes in his career, like this one.

    I’m thinking a lot of them are from the conservative Jewish demographic who would have not wanted to have anything to do with the election on Saturday.

    Also, there must be a subset of conservative Jews who would look down on a homosexual woman, whether she were a convert to Judaism or not.

  44. Have we learnt a lesson? Certainly not. Liberals are always right.

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust

    .@JoshFrydenberg: The issue of climate change is important to the people of Wentworth. However, we will not reduce emissions at the expense of people’s power bills. We are not going to move from the policies we have.

  45. @Jeznews tweets

    Classic from @vanOnselenP: “Malcolm Turnbull could walk on water across Sydney Harbour, and they (the Liberal hard right) would just accuse him of not paying the toll”. @InsidersABC

  46. I am hoping for Sharma to win the count, Morrison to give another speech, this time a winning one, and then Phelps to be awarded the seat on the recount.

  47. C@tmomma
    An obvious fanboy of Frump. What a surprise. Not.
    ____________________
    I don’t support Trump but he’s as cunning as a shit house rat and if you can’t learn a few things off people you don’t like then that’s sad.

  48. jenauthor says:
    Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 11:36 am
    Counting appears to have stalled … Long coffee break?

    The AEC will be checking everything from the first count after bringing all the ballots to a central location. This checking and recounting will take at least a couple of days. As they progress through the re-count and re-scrutiny, they may count some more postals. But the first priority will be to confirm the tally so far.

  49. I’m thinking a lot of them are from the conservative Jewish demographic who would have not wanted to have anything to do with the election on Saturday.

    Apparently this weekend is significant for jewish people, and many who observe whatever it is would have early voted.

  50. Shorten’s strategy and thinking will now come under scrutiny. Instead of appearing strongly in Wentworth, presenting an alternative government, particularly since it was MT’s seat, he has presided over a cowardly, vote for Phelps campaign which appears to have come unstuck. He could have got a lot of exposure, pushed his policies forward. Instead he tried his usual faction style politics, back a stalking horse, stay in the shadows. typical.

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