Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

Comments Page 7 of 33
1 6 7 8 33
  1. Regardless of who wins Wentworth, a swing of 10% or more on TPP will see Morrison’s beloved bed wetters wetting the bed!

  2. As if this entire presidency couldn’t be more bizarre…

    Today, Trump boarded Air Force One with toilet paper stuck to his shoe. https://twitter.com/MaltLiquorLogic/status/1048011113751703552/video/1

    This video of Trump leaving Minnesota with some sort of paper or whatever stuck to his foot is real and you can see it captured on the local Minnesota ABC Feed.

    https://www.facebook.com/KSTPTV/videos/983529125153588/

    https://twitter.com/MaltLiquorLogic/status/1048011113751703552

  3. Bulldust
    I’m getting concerned about these bloody Yanks who are going around the world committing crimes with impunity, including those against humanity. Shooting down airliners, (the iranian one) poisoning people with agent orance, bombing the bejesus out of innocent civilians (Afhanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria) and trying to wreck the world economy with trade wars and oil prices crime to name a few.

    See what perspective can do?

    The 1930s was not similar at all. 1914 is closer.

    However i am alarmist and i think that this last week has notched up the thtreat a great deal:
    1. The statement by the NATO lady
    2. The delivery of S300s to Syria
    3. The US response to the Delivery
    4. Mattis’s very recent statements
    5. the stand off by two warships in the South China Sea
    6. The China/US trade war
    7. This recent “cyber attack” stuff – it probably happened but the usual diplomatic action is to stay quiet, since there is probably tit for tat somewhere
    8. Russia allowing Turkey to buy oil in Rubles
    9. China setting up some sort of Yuan clearing house

    And that is just THIS WEEK

    Call me alarmist but methinks the old Chinese curse seems be be coming to pass, “May you live in interesting times”

  4. Something fishy about this story….

    In the quarter to the end of June, Robert charged taxpayers $7,222 for a “dedicated data line” at his home on the Gold Coast, including $2,832 in May and $2,705 in April. Since 2017, Robert has charged more than $25,000 for home internet, an average of more than $1,500 a month.

    Robert reportedly told Fairfax Media he used “around” 300 gigabytes of data in May and the bill was a result of exceeding his data limit of 50GB and having to pay per gigabyte after that.

    He blamed “connectivity issues” for the amount charged to taxpayers but did not say what he used so much data for or which company provides his internet services.

    “As ADSL, ISDN and the NBN were all unavailable at the time of installation, a home wireless service was facilitated,” Robert reportedly said. “This was the most stable, viable service available prior to NBN being installed.

    “NBN was recently rolled out in the local area, enabling the provision of future services at significantly lower cost.”

    Robert has a master’s degree in information technology and was the chief executive of GMT Recruitment, an IT recruiter, before he entered parliament in 2007.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/05/stuart-robert-charged-taxpayers-2000-a-month-for-his-home-internet

  5. GG:

    They’re going to have to go from daipers to incontinence pants. Sharma will I think get up but Wentworth thereafter will be a marginal, unless he makes a name for himself.

  6. Regarding NBN data usage.

    Yesterday my downloads totaled 18.00 GB. This consisted mostly of updating 3 computers to Windows 10 Insider 18252.
    Recently there have been up to 4 of these updates per week which if carried for a month would amount to 288 MB.
    Fortunately I have unlimited downloads and the updates will thin out to maybe 1 per week or even 1 per fortnight.
    The bill for wireless would be astronomical as shown by Mr. Whosit’s statements.
    Of course what Mr. Whatshisname is downloading would be highly work oriented and pertaining to his duties. 😱

  7. Robert is just telling another Liberal fairytale just like they all do, and still 47% believe them every time they tell them.

  8. getting Indonesia to grant work rights to refugees

    Is Labor going to attempt this?
    What are the odds of success?

    My previous points still stand.
    A nation that adopts a “though shalt not pass” policy accepts with near certainty that some innocent people will be harmed. I just wish we would be honest about this.

  9. Sprocket_ @ #308 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 1:17 pm

    Something fishy about this story….

    In the quarter to the end of June, Robert charged taxpayers $7,222 for a “dedicated data line” at his home on the Gold Coast, including $2,832 in May and $2,705 in April. Since 2017, Robert has charged more than $25,000 for home internet, an average of more than $1,500 a month.

    Robert reportedly told Fairfax Media he used “around” 300 gigabytes of data in May and the bill was a result of exceeding his data limit of 50GB and having to pay per gigabyte after that.

    He blamed “connectivity issues” for the amount charged to taxpayers but did not say what he used so much data for or which company provides his internet services.

    That volume of data could indicate he was running a commercial service – e.g. some kind of web server – from his home. And, it seems, getting the taxpayer to pay for it 🙁

  10. Astrobleme

    Unless you’re trying to get to Australia, there’s no reason to seek refuge in Indonesia at all. If that possibility is withdrawn, refugees basically won’t go there – after all, they’ve already travelled through a couple of other countries to get there.

    And I get back to – why the obsession with conditions in Indonesia? Refugees in places like Uganda are doing it much worse, with fewer options open to them.

  11. [‘Robert has attributed his commitment to family, charity and political life to his strong Pentecostal Christian beliefs, and has modelled his morals and values around his faith.’]

    Birds of a feather flock together.

  12. zoomster

    The obsession with Indonesia is easy to explain. Boats and stopping drowning’s in front of television cameras

  13. …and, of course, if other countries had open borders, there wouldn’t be a single refugee in a UNHCR camp. It’s because other countries don’t, and have limits on the numbers of refugees they take, that the camps are overflowing.

    I’m quite happy for us to take lots more from those camps.

  14. SKatich
    “Today, Trump boarded Air Force One with toilet paper stuck to his shoe”

    Poor phrasing. The toilet paper boarded Air Force One with Trump stuck to it.

  15. Astrobleme

    None of those people have been ‘accepted’ into those countries. They’re in camps. They’re transients, not permanent citizens with rights. It’s like arguing that the asylum seekers in Nauru are Nauruans – they’re not.

    Apples and oranges.

  16. zoomster

    We agree on taking more directly from camps closer to conditions that create those camps.

    I am under no illusion thats going to stop people getting on boats. Just as the EU is discovering with Libya.

  17. It seems CPG is trying to polish Morrison. Apparently, he has had a good few weeks and is turning out better than expected and that he will be a strong campaigner. Apparently Labor has been lucky so far but it might be running out and ALP and they may get nervous if there is a tightening.

    We just need a Albo made a speech article from Murphy and we will be back to business as usual.

    It seems government managed to get to Friday without a scandal so I suppose Morrison is indeed doing better than Abbott/Turnbull.

  18. “Unless you’re trying to get to Australia, there’s no reason to seek refuge in Indonesia at all. If that possibility is withdrawn, refugees basically won’t go there – after all, they’ve already travelled through a couple of other countries to get there.”

    Yes, but so what. What Country between Indonesia and Afghanistan/Iran/Iraq/Sri Lanka and Australia have signed the Refugee Convention? It’s easy to get to Indonesia, as they have fewer controls.

    “And I get back to – why the obsession with conditions in Indonesia? Refugees in places like Uganda are doing it much worse, with fewer options open to them.”
    Also true, but irrelevant… No one will escape from Afghanistan and travel to Uganda. The ‘Obsession’ with conditions in Indonesia is because people such as yourself claim that the refugees should just stay in Indonesia.

    Also your point about numbers was incorrect, which was what I was posting about.

  19. “None of those people have been ‘accepted’ into those countries.”

    Ok so what is the limit FOR those countries… You made the claim, give the numbers.

  20. guytaur @ #305 Friday, October 5th, 2018 – 1:13 pm

    This video of Trump leaving Minnesota with some sort of paper or whatever stuck to his foot is real and you can see it captured on the local Minnesota ABC Feed.

    C’mon, ease off. Trump is only losing his toileting skills because he’s old and mentally incompetent. It’s not like he’s the leader of an entire country, or anything. Oh wait, nevermind.

  21. Astro

    ‘What Country between Indonesia and Afghanistan/Iran/Iraq/Sri Lanka and Australia have signed the Refugee Convention?’

    How many of them have UNHCR camps? Refugees are meant to be seeking safety, not country shopping.

    ‘The ‘Obsession’ with conditions in Indonesia is because people such as yourself claim that the refugees should just stay in Indonesia.’

    No, I don’t. I claim they won’t go there in the first place.

    ‘Also your point about numbers was incorrect, which was what I was posting about.’

    No, it isn’t. Or rather, it was a different point entirely.

    Lovey was talking about the numbers of refugees SETTLED in countries – that is, brought in, given citizenship and permanent residence. That’s not at all the same, even a tiny bit, as letting them stay in a camp on a temporary basis.

  22. Newspoll-Poll Update

    I think there is a new consensus, namely the next Newspoll will be next weekend, that is on or about the 14th. Thank you ratsak and William Bowe for your insights.

    However, in the unlikely event that these fine persons are mistaken I will continue to gather guesses until Sunday evening, just in case. I will then clear the decks with the view to starting again, refreshed, late next week.

  23. Poor phrasing. The toilet paper boarded Air Force One with Trump stuck to it.

    What self-respecting piece of toilet paper would allow that to happen? Clearly the paper was there against its will.

    This is an attempted toilet paper rendition.

  24. …Until April 2017, DP World charged no infrastructure fee to users of its terminal at Sydney’s Port Botany while there was a nominal fee of just more than $3 for every container at its Port of Melbourne operation. The only place DP World charged anything like a meaningful fee was at its Fisherman’s Island terminal. That fee was just over $30 a container.

    Last week, DP World Australia chief executive, Paul Scurrah, told the logistics industry that from New Year’s Day 2019, DP World would charge $63.80 to carry a laden container to or from Port Botany, $85.30 a box at DP World’s Melbourne terminal and $65.15 at Fisherman’s Island. The industry was also told the fee for using the various vehicle booking systems would pretty much double to $12.95 for every slot booked…

    https://www.afr.com/business/scurrahs-last-grasp-at-port-reform-20181003-h166u9

    Slightly esoteric, but yet another example of a privatised asset exercising monopoly pricing power to extract economic rent, to support the value of a purchase price, in the face of market change.

    And the ACCC? They think that’s just dandy:
    “The stevedores’ profits, we understand, are still under pressure and they are using it [infrastructure fees] to offset revenue losses elsewhere. We accept that line and we are pleased we now have a story that is not false.”

  25. To be fair to Trump, having a bit of toilet paper caught on your shoe may be embarrassing, but it does happen to people in perfect control of their faculties too. It’s not like he shat himself or something.

  26. Zoomster
    “How many of them have UNHCR camps? Refugees are meant to be seeking safety, not country shopping.”
    Oh those naughty refugees.. not staying in refugee camps in Iran (where are they!?) and Afghanistan… Where they will pretty well remain for their entire lives.

    “No, I don’t. I claim they won’t go there in the first place.”
    They’re already there… So too late.

    “Lovey was talking about the numbers of refugees SETTLED in countries – that is, brought in, given citizenship and permanent residence. That’s not at all the same, even a tiny bit, as letting them stay in a camp on a temporary basis.”

    You claimed that ALL countries have quotas. That’s rubbish.
    And it kind of is, as most refugees will spend their whole lives in those camps…

  27. Asha Leu says: Friday, October 5, 2018 at 2:00 pm

    To be fair to Trump, having a bit of toilet paper caught on your shoe may be embarrassing, but it does happen to people in perfect control of their faculties too. It’s not like he shat himself or something.

    ************************************************

    Like this ????

  28. How the hell does someone use 300 GB of data a month anyway? Especially a stodgy old pollie who probably isn’t binge watching allthe latest offerings on Netflix or downloading all the big new video games off of Steam? 300 GB is a hell of a lot of emails and PDF documents.

    For that matter, how does someone who apparently has a master’s in IT make the classic confused-technophobic-dad error of going over their data limit by that sort of ridiculous amount.

  29. Re Sunday’s Newspoll – put me down for 51/49 Labor. As much as I’d love to think otherwise, the Australian media’s collective coddling of the Morrison Government is going to boost them.

  30. @RWPUSA or Richard W.Painter former Chief White House ethics lawyer tweets
    No.
    Rock bottom was when the Senate refused to even hold a hearing for Merrick Garland, preferring instead to wait until Vladimir Putin’s preferred candidate could become our next president.

    Grassley: This is almost ‘rock-bottom’ @CNNPolitics https://cnn.it/2BWJkUE

  31. GG
    “How unusual that Alan Jones is obnoxious to a woman in an authority position!”

    I just listened to the exchange. Disgraceful. The CEO copping abuse simply because she won’t pimp out the Opera House as a billboard for a stupid horse race.

Comments Page 7 of 33
1 6 7 8 33

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *