Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. I voted today in the USA 2018 elections. I am registered to vote in Washington State. The ballot includes federal and state offices, various state initiatives, and various state and county court appointments. I thought I’d share a couple of the items being decided over there using snapshots of my ballot.

    The first is about climate change. The second is the drinks industry pre-emptively stopping a sugar tax.

    Gun control.

  2. Bancroft will be a first selection when available, Langer wouldn’t leave him hanging for Smith and Warner’s crime, he is too good a bloke and doesn’t suffer from east coast shortsightedness.

  3. I have a question about Labor’s announced policies. Putting aside wage increase taxation who of ordinary Australians will actually be paying more tax than they do today? All I can think of is the 0.5% Medicare increase limited to those earning over $87k. Negative gearing changes will be grandfathered and only apply to new investments on existing dwellings so it would be a matter of choice for investors who could still use gearing on new buildings.
    So where does Morrison’s “Labor wants to increase your taxes” come from and who is he addressing these lines to?

  4. Michael West‏ @MichaelWestBiz · 5h5 hours ago

    Stuey Robert’s cellulite & fat blasting business here http://cryoau.com.au/ . Also does anti-ageing, facelifts & vitamin supplements. Stu was a director while making his 90/day internet claims (2x Newstart).
    Stu needs to go

  5. BK: “So where does Morrison’s “Labor wants to increase your taxes” come from and who is he addressing these lines to?”
    —————————————

    I suspect that, as usual, there is no reality underlying the fear Scummo is trying to stoke here, other than his own desire to stop people voting Labor.

  6. BK. Staying within the parameters of your question, Morrison is addressing everyone earning above $87k, everyone hoping to earn above $87k, everyone hoping to negatively gear after the election, and perhaps anyone who thinks more negative gearing is a good thing in general. Or, and I think is your point, he may just be shouting “Labor. Tax. Bad.”

  7. My partner just got polled by Reachtel. Voting intentions, do you always vote that way, how did you vote in 2016 and some questions on attitudes to unions. We’re in Boothby.

  8. Oakeshott Country @ #1267 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    AM
    The size of the problem is astonishing.
    I put to my brother-in-law, an ex-Jesuit, that a significant number of people become priests because it gave them opportunity and plausibility to practise their perversion.
    He would have none of this; the paedophiles were a small minority and it was not really their fault because it was a “mental illness”
    A strange response for an institution that makes great distinction between good and evil people

    Marie and I came to this realization many years ago, some kind of down the ages club, with access to children and other vulnerable people.
    I tend to repeat myself – however, as with co-dependency serial killers, psychopaths and name your pervert types, I am at a complete loss as to how they recognise each other.
    I guess that’s a good thing for me/us as otherwise I/we would possibly be members of the same club.

    I am now exhausted, even after my regular afternoon nanny nap, 161 laps of Bathurst track is a little too much for me.

    ***********************************************

    I recall reading the following many years ago. The poor man would be demented now trying to weed out the trivial cases.

    Psychopathia Sexualis: The Case Histories Paperback – 2000
    by Richard von Krafft-Ebing

    237 classic case histories of lustmurder, necrophilia, pederasty, bestiality, transvestism, rape, mutilation, sado-masochism, exhibitionism and other psychosexual proclivities.

    And so to prepare for a visit from my favourite daughter, son in law and the wonderful Gracie a beautiful black Labrador. How lucky am I – answer — very.

    Au revoir, mes enfants. 👋 😵

  9. I got the same poll on my mobile, I am in Makin. I also got a state one. better Premier, importance of different issues, who is best at handling each issue, how did you vote etc etc

    Matt31 @ #1417 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:09 pm

    My partner just got polled by Reachtel. Voting intentions, do you always vote that way, how did you vote in 2016 and some questions on attitudes to unions. We’re in Boothby.

  10. @briefly

    I agree that if the Greeens did not exist some of their supporters would be causing serious trouble inside the Labor Party. Look at the lack of an stable, well lead minor party on the right, it is one of the reasons why the Liberal Party has undergone a civil war recently.

  11. ‘rhwombat says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 5:35 pm

    Boerwar @ #53508 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 1:26 pm

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=380Mh4jqs14

    That’s a NW Canadian rain dance: do it anywhere west of Kamloops, and it has ~ 100% success rate within 24 hrs. I wonder if there is a version to stop it raining?’

    Praying for rain at Innisfail?

  12. Well, well. Though I think that Political Compass has its limitations, forced choices.
    Econ L/R -7.0
    Soc Lib / Auth -6.51
    FWIW, I also think that Morrison is sounding like an idiot. It’s going to interesting to see how the polls move, or don’,t with the public getting more exposure to him.
    Admittedly, I’m biased but he doesn’t come across as authentic.

  13. Political compass: economic -7.0, social -8.05

    Oooo, I’m an anarcho-syndicalist!

    Also, our PM du jour (it’s a bit like that) needs to be reminded about Clement Wragge, he of the Stiger vortex guns and he of the view that cyclones should be named after politicans.

  14. Economic Left/Right: -5.63
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -4.72

    I think some of the questions are a bit hard.

    A free market is good. Does this mean free from big companies keeping small companies out?

  15. Late Riser @ #54591 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 3:30 pm

    But who cares? What can it mean? How do you decouple the economic from the social? Money is a social construct. What does this model model? Have they published a heat map of all responses? I’d be interested in knowing if there is clumping, spreading, symmetry or other patterns. Then I’d be interested in how self-identified voters for the major political parties (Liberal, ALP, Greens) cluster.

    Oh good – I’ve become more radical with age:
    AntiFriedman -8.13, AntiThatcher -7.74.
    I’d hope I cluster with St Gough – as I have voted ALP since I could.

  16. To Burgye and others who are Pooh-poohing racing … last time I looked it was the 4th largest employer in the nation (with all its associated industries).

    It provides billions $$$ for schools & hospitals.

    I admit to a vested interest.

  17. WeWantPaul @ #1402 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 5:17 pm

    Bancroft will be a first selection when available, Langer wouldn’t leave him hanging for Smith and Warner’s crime, he is too good a bloke and doesn’t suffer from east coast shortsightedness.

    Bancroft will be passed over in the short term until he gets some runs on the board.

  18. It seems like a pirate operation projecting something on to the front of Parliament House should be possible – but what would you project? Maybe the orders in the most recent defamation judgement against Alan Jones?

  19. @Dio

    D&M
    I think the difference between men being better at visual/map/geometry and women being better at language/word/verbal explanations accounts for the difference.

    You are absolutely correct that this is a perfectly sensible (and likely) explanation, and next time I talk to my friends I might ask them if they have looked at this as an explanation.

  20. Late Riser @ #1401 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 4:16 pm

    I voted today in the USA 2018 elections. I am registered to vote in Washington State. The ballot includes federal and state offices, various state initiatives, and various state and county court appointments. I thought I’d share a couple of the items being decided over there using snapshots of my ballot.
    Gun control.
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    LR: Washingtonians are interesting – and diverse. The euthanasia laws are, to my mind admirable in idea, if somewhat more difficult in practice.

  21. From Shorten’s big speech today
    “If I’m elected prime minister … I promise Australia that it will always be your Medicare card, not your credit card, that guarantees you access to quality health in this country,” he said.
    While that sounds good, access to quality health care isn’t really under federal control and a Medicare card certainly isn’t a guarantee.

  22. 52.5/47.5 I think. Morrison is an ad man aspirational who spends his Sundays watching vast crowds being expertly handled and emotionally played, and he’s learnt something from that.

    However, one of the lines that’s stuck with me from Richmal Crompton’s William books is that William, “unlike the ordinary blackmailer, knew where to stop”.

    I rather doubt that the incumbents know where to stop.

  23. That test shows I’m closer to the political centre than anyone else on this blog. I should definately be the go to guy if anyone wants to know what normal voters are actually thinking.

  24. GG
    There is a very tight clustering around Corbyn/Sanders/Chomsky triangle on this blog. I’m happy as an outlier in the Mandela area.

  25. Greensborough Growler

    What it shows is that in Seppo land you would be almost politically ‘normal’. In ‘Straya, not so much 🙂

  26. 52.5/47.5 I think. Morrison is an ad man aspirational who spends his Sundays watching vast crowds being expertly handled and emotionally played, and he’s learnt something from that.
    __
    Warrigl
    You missed a word. Insert “credulous” in front of crowds.

  27. So Morrison is claiming credit for the rain by praying?

    Would he still claim credit if so much rain fell that it caused flooding and devastation?

  28. rhwombat. Euthanasia, legal marijuana, tighter gun control. All things I approve of. Oregon State is also left-leaning. And both states have great micro-breweries. If you have to live in the USA there are worse places.

  29. “Scott Morrison is a toad
    Alan Jones is a toad.
    Mitch McConnell is a toad.
    Donald Trump is a toad.
    They all have one other thing in common.”

    Large sacks of poison lurking just under their skin??

  30. Diogenes:

    While that sounds good, access to quality health care isn’t really under federal control and a Medicare card certainly isn’t a guarantee.

    Yes. It’s complicated.

    Someone, might have been you, pointed out that Kerryn Phelps declaration that she’d “resume bulk billing if she could” is disingenuous in the extreme, given the implication that this in turn depends on closing the gap between the rebates and AMA scheduled fees. A circumstance contingent on a prevailing snowball somewhere very very hot.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *