Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. Didn’t Godwin also say his law ceased to have application in the age of Trump? Could be that was an internet lie, I’m not sure.

  2. Notice how Scummy Scott is now publicly embracing his PR past because he has sniffed the wind that people would try and box him in because of it?

  3. Scummo, speaking of the Opera House head Louise Herron’s principled decision and the public’s understandable opposition to her being overruled at the behest of Alan Jones:

    “And I don’t know why people are getting precious about it.”

    “I can’t work out what all the fuss is about.”

    “I think people have just got to have a bit of a lie down on this sort of stuff.”

    He might as well have told her – and all of us who disagree with the Alan Jones / Berejiklian decision to overrule her – “don’t you worry your little head about this; let us decide what’s good for you”.

    What an arrogant, patronising git this PM is! And I think his comments were misogynistic dog-whistling. That third comment of his was far too close to the old “have a Bex and a good lie down” for my liking.

    And how ironic he paints the firm but calm opposition to Jones/Berejiklian as hysterical. What about the steam coming out of the ears of the table-thumping Alan Jones, with his froth-at-the-mouth bullying of the very cool-under-fire Louise Herron on his radio show?

  4. who knew Morrison lived in Port Hacking?

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/bigger-yards-and-better-lifestyles-what-its-like-in-port-hacking-home-of-pm-scott-morrison-20181005-h15tr5-769902/?utm_campaign=strap-masthead&utm_source=smh&utm_medium=link&utm_content=pos2&ref=pos1

    has anybody read what his domestic arrangements will be?

    Is he moving the wife and kids to Canberra or doing a John Howard and setting up in Kirribilli? It’s probably a long way to his preferred local school.

    A Labor PM would have had all this splashed over the media by now, with criticism of the costs and inconvenience it will cause, real or imagined.

  5. Re Kavanagh. A couple of weeks back I read a bit of a run down of his positions on various issues. Naturally he ticked a number of the usual RW boxes but on a couple of issues he was a bloody god darned ‘liberal’. But for the life of me I can nae remember what his ‘liberal’ bits were. Any Bludgers see that article or one like it and remember what they were ?

  6. Can someone please tell me whenabouts a link to this Political Compass was posted on this thread? I don’t have a chance to scroll back and find it, but I’d very much like to see where I stand.

  7. Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:07 pm
    guytaur says:

    Did I hear wrong?

    Did Morrison just take credit for the rain?

    His prayers must have worked .

    __________________________

    With a very hot, very dry summer forecast, I will be interested to see what effect his prayers have on rain and moderate temperatures.

    None whatsoever, is my answer.

  8. Scott Morrison is a toad.

    Alan Jones is a toad.

    Mitch McConnell is a toad.

    Donald Trump is a toad.

    They all have one other thing in common.

  9. booleanbach says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:15 pm
    Why didn’t Morrisson pray for rain a lot earlier when it would have helped all those farmers; or if he did, why was not god listening to him then?

    ____________

    Like all good rain dancers, Morrison had to wait until the forecast was for rain.

    Edit:

    Whoops, Late Riser beat me to it a page back.

  10. Now this is interesting Kay Jay
    The Church has admitted that Fr Tom Brennan, the headmaster (or Rector) of SPX when I left, was indeed a kiddy fiddler
    https://www.theherald.com.au/story/5654015/i-am-sorry-bishop-apologises-for-child-sex-offender-principal/
    I had an enormous fight with my mother when I told her of the rumours about Tom when I was leaving the school – she felt that such a thing was not possible and that he was a very good man.
    Meanwhile Miller describes him in the book as reminding him of someone who would sell you a suit in David Jones – a particularly apt description

  11. A former dean of the Yale Law School, from where Kavanaugh got his degree is shocked at his conduct and his rank partisanship. He compares and contrasts with Merrick Garland’s professional behaviour when the Senate refused to even give him a nomination hearing.

    With calculation and skill, Kavanaugh stoked the fires of partisan rage and male entitlement. He had apparently concluded that the only way he could rally Republican support was by painting himself as the victim of a political hit job. He therefore offered a witches’ brew of vicious unfounded charges, alleging that Democratic members of the Senate Judicial Committee were pursuing a vendetta on behalf of the Clintons. If we expect judges to reach conclusions based solely on reliable evidence, Kavanaugh’s savage and bitter attack demonstrated exactly the opposite sensibility.

    I was shell-shocked. This was not the Brett Kavanaugh I thought I knew. Having come so close to confirmation, Kavanaugh apparently cared more about his promotion than about preserving the dignity of the Supreme Court to which he aspired to join. Even if he sought to defend his honor as a husband and father, his unbalanced rantings about political persecution were so utterly inconsistent with the dispassionate temperament we expect from judges that one had to conclude that he had chosen ambition over professionalism.

    His performance is indelibly etched in the public mind. For as long as Kavanaugh sits on the court, he will remain a symbol of partisan anger, a haunting reminder that behind the smiling face of judicial benevolence lies the force of an urgent will to power. No one who felt the force of that anger could possibly believe that Kavanaugh might actually be a detached and impartial judge. Each and every Republican who votes for Kavanaugh, therefore, effectively announces that they care more about controlling the Supreme Court than they do about the legitimacy of the court itself. There will be hell to pay.

    https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/10/06/kavanaugh-confirmation-temperament-yale-dean-221086

  12. poroti:

    I don’t recall seeing that, although Andrew Sullivan has written that Kavanaugh is more likely to leave Roe v Wade alone compared to the another Trump nominee who would’ve got the nod if Kavanaugh had withdrawn or his nomination fallen over.

  13. Thank you for that Millennial. I have moved a little towards the vertical centre and bit more libertarian, probably due to even over the three years since. The loss of civil liberties due to the ‘war on terror’ (oxymoron much?) had made me more aware of what gov’ts are doing under that banner. Speech and actions such as protesting and sit-ins are now being curtailed on ‘preventing terrorism’ pretences.

    Millennial @ #1238 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 11:56 am

    Deja vu with people posting there Political Compass scores….

    We’ve used the same Political Compass before, almost 3 years to the day… back then I made a graph depicting everybody’s score:

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

  14. Confessions:

    I think you’re missing the point somewhat: it has all to do with numerics.

    Hopefully they’ll change; but at the moment, the numbers aren’t with the Dems. Post November 6, that could all change – at least in the House, probably not the Senate.

  15. What position did the current Federal Government take to the most recent Fair Work Australia wage case again?

    What position did employer organisations take?

    What position did the Unions take?

    And what position did the Labor Opposition take?

    As someone noted everything is going up

    Except house prices, the ASX and interest rates on deposits

    So the only way you add to personal wealth in these circumstances is by the difference between income and expenditure where income is not rising and expenses are rising

    This impacts on public confidence – and determines elections

    The absence of returns across the investment classes see the Dividend Imputation rort – people attracted to something for nothing and paying for those taxation driven investment decisions by losing their wealth

    So the day of reckoning is coming because at some stage, including by interest rates rising (a pressure point on equities because why take risk for income?) these investors driven by tax legislation will conclude that the capital losses and loss of wealth are not worth the income

    As I have put previously, NAB Shares were at $36- when the rort was declined by me

    They are now at $27- and still under pressure, so a 30% fall in value

    To lift the dividend from 4% to 7% courtesy of the cash back rort

    The presentations of the likes of Dixon stagger and go back to the days of Storm Financial and others roping fools in

    Money for nothing

    But the higher the return the greater the risk

  16. So I did today’s test of numbers.
    https://www.politicalcompass.org
    Economic Left/Right: -7.88
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -7.18
    Apparently I am a communist and an anarchist. Possibly further into the bottom left than Thatcher was to the top right. Who knew?

    But who cares? What can it mean? How do you decouple the economic from the social? Money is a social construct. What does this model model? Have they published a heat map of all responses? I’d be interested in knowing if there is clumping, spreading, symmetry or other patterns. Then I’d be interested in how self-identified voters for the major political parties (Liberal, ALP, Greens) cluster.

  17. Just been polled on landline for Vic state election. Am in South Barwon.
    On behalf of Labor due to the questions:
    How much likely, more likely, less likely or no difference to vote Labor due to –
    Solar Power subsidy
    Free Tafe courses
    Underground rail loop.

    Other questions on how important are the following in regards to how you vote
    Congestion, Health, Cost of living, waste and mismanagement and Jobs.

  18. Well that was fun!

    Economic Left/Right: -6.13
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.9

    A few points more libertarian than Gandhi and almost diametrically opposite Thatcher. Nice.

  19. Interesting to contrast where I fell this time, with where the Greens fell at the last election and where Labor fell according to the political compass site.

    But to be fair my main disagreement / concern with the greens isn’t policy, it is political strategy and leadership stuff.

  20. Ok. I made a mistake thinking someone else’s link was my old score.

    Just did the test again.

    -7.75 economic
    -7.13 social.

    Phew. That’s more like it!

    😀

  21. Oakeshott Country

    A friend of mine, now in his 50’s, was horribly abused at primary school and then, having been groomed, passed on to like-minded bastards in high school. This was a supposedly prestigious Canberra Catholic institution. He was also subjected to various indecencies as a child when invited to serve (in several senses on the word) the priests at breakfast.

    Whenever he told his parents they simply refused to believe him. No priest would act like that was the mood in that family. Of course, this refusal to accept what a child was saying is exactly why the scum were allowed to get away with it.

    My friend eventually received sizeable compensation (settled out of court) but interestingly, the money did not come from the church but from their insurance company! The school also insisted for a while that he had never attended that institution, a rather stupid defence when he had written evidence that he had.

  22. “My problem with the Greens is policy. There is really no point having policies that simply can’t be implemented. All you are doing is virtue signalling.”

    the impotence is more of a problem for me, and I guess coming at the same thing as you but from a slightly different angle there inability to realise you’ve got to get to policy outcomes and take the country with you and that standing where they to (quite a bit to the right / authoritarian side of me) and stamping you foot is useless stuff (which I think is my way of saying your virtue signalling).

  23. Five thirty eight had one poll with the GOP trailing by 3%, but the 2 subsequent and latest polls have the margin back out to around double figures

    Perhaps the baying mob Trump energises got to 99 and changed hands

  24. The problem with the Gs is their unrelenting campaign against Labor. They are an obstruction to the election of Labor governments and the implementation of Labor policies.

    The good thing about the Gs is they have set up shop outside Labor. They would do infinitely more harm if they were residents inside Labor.

  25. And, M Marsh at 4 – with a sub 30 Test batting average

    And his brother at 3

    In the absence of Warner, Smith, Cummins and Hazelwood – and with Langer’s feverish involvement – this is one of the weakest sides we have fielded post WSC

    I do not see Bancroft as an automatic selection – he is akin to John Dyson and others from when we had weak sides

    Trust a few put their hands up tho

  26. Allan Moyes:

    [‘…the money did not come from the church but from their insurance company!’]

    That’s how it generally works, but their premiums must be astronomical, actuaries being in command.

  27. AM
    The size of the problem is astonishing.
    I put to my brother-in-law, an ex-Jesuit, that a significant number of people become priests because it gave them opportunity and plausibility to practise their perversion.
    He would have none of this; the paedophiles were a small minority and it was not really their fault because it was a “mental illness”
    A strange response for an institution that makes great distinction between good and evil people

  28. Avenatti is really going after Trump on Twitter. “You are an habitual liar and a disgrace to this nation. You again claimed tonight that I have made false accusations against you. Name them! Those felonies that Cohen pled guilty to? The allegations about you having sex with my client with a 4 mo old at home?

  29. Aunt Mavis
    If I was the church’s insurer I would try not to pay as compensation for victims was a risk that they should have foreseen and which their deliberate actions made worse

  30. I wonder if Morrison just makes up his reactions as he goes along, relying on his own “beliefs”: laissez-faire financial decisions, (his) god will provide, and women tend to over-react, so toughen up, girls.

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