Further Friday free-for-all

Amid an otherwise quiet week for polling, a privately conducted ReachTEL poll offers further evidence the Liberals are on shaky ground in Wentworth.

It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:

• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.

• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.

• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,606 comments on “Further Friday free-for-all”

  1. Why didn’t Morrisson pray for rain a lot earlier when it would have helped all those farmers?

    He had to wait for the bom to give him the heads up for when it would work.

  2. booleanbach says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:15 pm
    Why didn’t Morrisson pray for rain a lot earlier when it would have helped all those farmers; or if he did, why was not god listening to him then?
    —————————————

    Couldn’t have expressed it better myself. Shows the fallacy in that type of “faithful reasoning”. You might as well jump down your stairs each morning instead of walking, thinking that by doing so you’ll make it rain. Keep it up, and sure enough, it’ll rain eventually. And you (and the nation’s farmers) can thank your wise decision to jump down your stairs instead of walking!

  3. Further to my last post.

    If the LNP accusing Labor of moving to the left is because they reject the “Final Solution” policies of Katter then I am all for Labor moving to the left.

  4. Bill Maher makes this point all the time about the supreme court picks over the last 2 decades.

    There have been five presidents who assumed the office after having lost the popular vote. Between them, they nominated 12 justices who ended up serving on the Supreme Court. On Saturday, with President Trump’s nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh poised to pass the Senate, the number will climb to 13.

    Kavanaugh, though, has a distinct honor: He will be the first justice nominated by someone who lost the popular vote to earn his seat on the bench with support from senators representing less than half of the country while having his nomination opposed by a majority of the country.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/10/06/senators-representing-less-than-half-us-are-about-confirm-nominee-opposed-by-most-americans/?utm_term=.67d8e36a75cc&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

  5. zoomster says:

    So ScoMo waited until he became PM before he prayed for rain?

    I think he also waited until BOM had predicted ‘rain events’ on both sides of Australia.

  6. @eeratenden tweeted

    To the women of America:

    Mitch McConnell believes that women describing their sexual assaults to Senators are the mob. That is what they think of you. That is what they have become.

    Vote
    Them
    All
    Out

  7. Confessions says: Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:01 pm

    The less observant identified with his drinking habits, and didn’t notice that he was still acting like a preppy twat.

    His temperament coupled with his partisanship and political baggage is what makes him fundamentally inappropriate for the supreme court.

    **************************************************

    On top of the sexual accusations, the drinking, the temperament, the possible perjury under oath blah blah blah – there still seems to be some issues of financial matters and how his considerable debt was magically paid off …. an article by investigator/author Greg Olear is worth a read ( the US accountancy terms is a bit beyond my limited skills at times here )

    Furthermore, a judge in debt to mysterious creditors (the “friends” who “reimbursed” the “baseball tickets”) is a judge susceptible to blackmail. And that is not acceptable on the Supreme Court, where impartiality is king. Now that Brett Kavanaugh prepares to succeed Justice Kennedy, the American people deserve an answer to the question: Who owns Kavanaugh?

    https://medium.com/@gregolear/supreme-discrepancies-kavanaughs-financial-disclosure-reports-conflict-with-his-senate-testimony-b263f7c429e2

    ALSO : https://twitter.com/gregolear

  8. Confessions says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:33 pm
    Bill Maher makes this point all the time about the supreme court picks over the last 2 decades.

    The obscures the point. The Right are winning. They are trying to take the US back to the order that existed before FDR…we are seeing RW wish-fulfilment in action.

    The RW everywhere will be exulting in this. They will be giving thanks in the churches and in their party conclaves and congratulating themselves.

  9. Venezuela – $0.01 per litre
    Saudi Arabia – $0.24
    Algeria – $0.28
    Turkmenistan – $0.28
    Kuwait – $0.34
    Egypt – $0.34
    Ecuador – $0.39
    Iran – $0.40
    Qatar – $0.41
    Bahrain – $0.42
    Cheapest countries for petrol in the world (US pricing)

  10. The RW everywhere will be exulting in this. They will be giving thanks in the churches and in their party conclaves and congratulating themselves.

    Of course. I expect the Republicans will run in the midterms along the lines of using Kavanaugh as victim and needing their voters to turn out to stop the blue wave, prevent the Democrats from winning the House and the Senate, and in turn stopping them from impeaching Kavanaugh.

  11. Confessions

    If you assume the Democrats knew that the GOP was going to vote to appoint Kavanaugh hell or high water and had nothing to lose by energising their base their tactics make perfect sense.

    Their greatest success in modern times was in reaction to the Clarence Thomas Anita Hill hearings.

    As Shirley Bassey sang with the propellerheads Its A Case of History Repeating

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzLT6_TQmq8

  12. phoenixRED
    says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:37 pm

    Who owns Kavanaugh?

    Seems obvious to me. 🙂
    I wonder if the other conservative judges think Trump can pardon himself?

  13. Confessions says: Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:42 pm

    PhoenixRed:

    The lack of questions about his finances surprised me. That was a major red flag about his background.

    *********************************************************

    As Bill Maher said yesterday at the opening of his show and the audience clapping

    ” Thank You – Your clapping lasted longer than the FBI investigation ……. and that says it all ……

    Wray/Rosenstein/ FBI …….all come out of this as being the “fixers” for Trump to save their own arses …… dirty tricks J Edgar Hoover will be doing somersaults in his grave and must be so proud of his boys in stitching up another bunch of lefty commo liberals …….

  14. From Murdoch’s rag, Banks has removed all Liberal Party identification from her material promoting speculation she may run as an Independent

    The front runner for Liberal pre-selection has the support of several government MP’s including Liberal backbencher Michael Sukkar

    !!!!!!

  15. guytaur

    Some of his other business interests. Mr Snake Oil man.

    Stuey Robert’s cellulite & fat blasting business here https://t.co/rrBtVbL9tT. Also does anti-ageing, facelifts & vitamin supplements. Stu was a director while making his 90/day internet claims (2x Newstart).
    Stu needs to go https://t.co/1pA6uRm9lw

    — Michael West (@MichaelWestBiz) October 7, 2018

  16. Well written and valuable post puffy….i support what you are saying

    Discussions on mental health and funding of should be a priority and h ow we as a community react.

    My thought are with dog’s breakfast

  17. poroti says: Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 2:58 pm

    guytaur

    Some of his other business interests. Mr Snake Oil man.

    Stuey Robert’s cellulite & fat blasting business here https://t.co/rrBtVbL9tT. Also does anti-ageing, facelifts & vitamin supplements. Stu was a director while making his 90/day internet claims (2x Newstart).

    ***********************************************************

    Reminds me of that other reprehensible con-artist Peter Foster

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Foster

  18. p
    I am still trying to figure out where I went wrong with the 9.08.
    My view is that Bludgers with minus scores are virtue signalling.

  19. I used to hang around with people who would pray for things like car parking spaces.

    Think of the forward planning God has to do on something like that:

    1. He has to know when you’re arriving at the shopping centre (not too hard).

    2. He has to anticipate when you’re going to pray for a parking spot, and where you will be when you do it;

    3. He has to arrange for the person whose car is parked in that spot to have finished their shopping and be returning to the vehicle….

    So what happens if you decide not to pray for the parking spot? Does the person involved in 3 suddenly remember a bit of shopping they need to do? Or does nobody in this situation have any free will at all, and it was pre ordained that you would pray for the parking spot?

  20. Observer

    ‘From Murdoch’s rag, Banks has removed all Liberal Party identification from her material promoting speculation she may run as an Independent…’

    Sigh. We get this in the lead up to every election.

    Local members are allowed to put out material promoting themselves at the tax payers’ expense, as part of their publications budget. However, they are not allowed to brand that material as party political in any way, or as instructing people how to vote- so the usual ‘look at me, I’m fantastic, I’ve got all this for the electorate’ glossy pamphlet is OK as long as it doesn’t mention the Liberals.

    The CPG hasn’t seem to caught on to this yet, and will reliably pounce on any promotional material coming from an MP’s office without party logos as a sign of Something.

  21. …there was an equally breathless story today suggesting Emma Husar might be going to run for Lindsay, with the commentary that if she runs as an independent it might make things harder for Labor. I have no idea why Husar would run as an independent. I would expect her to run for Labor, and would welcome it.

  22. Another Australian invention hitting it out of the park

    Professor Wending Chen’s team of chemical and materials science engineers have made highly stretchable gold electronic ‘skin’ that can monitor cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose, foetal movements and help people with autism disorder and dementia. https://twitter.com/SBSNews/status/1048529451301003265

    Australians develop new ‘wearable skin’ to monitor health conditions http://bit.ly/2Ct1Oxe

  23. Scotty from the Shire has ventured out to my birthplace, Bathurst. However all the questions from reporters are about ‘that Opera House horse race’, and Scotty obliges…

  24. ‘zoomster says:
    Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 3:07 pm

    Alternatively, Boer, we’re all lovely people and you’re not…’

    Oooooh… I might just have another go and aim for -10/-10.

  25. Growing up in Bathurst before threats to children meant us kids were told “Be home before the street lights come on”, so we roamed far and wide (little did we know of the paedos at St Stannys up the road).

    One of the favourite spots was Mt Panorama. We would take half a day riding, mostly walking, our bikes to the top of the hill – and spend 20 minutes coming down with our feet on the handle bars – no helmets in those days. It really is the most magical place, and the car races were an annual treat.

  26. This will get the Godwins Law fans upset but …….well worth an intelligent read ….

    A leading Holocaust historian just seriously compared the US to Nazi Germany

    “If the US has someone whom historians will look back on as the gravedigger of American democracy, it is Mitch McConnell.”

    Usually, comparisons between Donald Trump’s America and Nazi Germany come from cranks and internet trolls. But a new essay in the ****New York Review of Books pointing out “troubling similarities” between the 1930s and today is different: It’s written by Christopher Browning, one of America’s most eminent and well-respected historians of the Holocaust. In it, he warns that democracy here is under serious threat, in the way that German democracy was prior to Hitler’s rise — and really could topple altogether.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/5/17940610/trump-hitler-history-historian

    ***** The Suffocation of Democracy

    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2018/10/25/suffocation-of-democracy/

  27. Oakeshott Country (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 12:19 pm
    Comment #1103

    Relating to St Pius X Adamstown.

    I have been guilty of conflating several events. My daughter did not go to St. Pius. However we have been, for many years, distressed by the miserable excuses for humanity discussed here and in the ABC article plus the current court case and we await news of the sentence for Mr. Hall.

    ☮✌☚ ☕

  28. BW

    If you really scored =9.5+9.5 or thereabouts i am surprised you vote even informal. The local fascist party is more you scene

    You are telling us you are a racist, homophobic, anti egalitarian and economically IPA type in facour of capital punishment, whacking kids, no regulation on industry etc.

    I assume you are trolling us.

  29. Observer @ #1326 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 2:49 pm

    From Murdoch’s rag, Banks has removed all Liberal Party identification from her material promoting speculation she may run as an Independent

    The front runner for Liberal pre-selection has the support of several government MP’s including Liberal backbencher Michael Sukkar

    !!!!!!

    So, another seat gain for Labor. Good. 🙂

  30. Question:

    [‘I wonder if the other conservative judges think Trump can pardon himself?’]

    The appointment of Kavanaugh to the SCOTUS will probably soon be repeated given that Bader Ginsburg is 85 and is reportedly in poor health. Her departure would give conservative judges a margin of 6:3.

    Article II, Section 2 of the US Constitution reads the POTUS “shall have power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States, except in cases of impeachment.” But there’s no way Trump will be impeached, as it requires a two-thirds majority of senators to convict.

    However, if Trump were to be criminally charged and found guilty, the SCOTUS could be called on to adjudge whether he can pardon himself. To my knowledge there’s no precedent for this; but I think that even conservative judges would not risk the damage to the Court that would result therefrom.

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