It’s been a quiet week on the poll front, and indeed it’s worth noting that polling generally is thinner on the ground than it used to be – the once weekly Essential Research series went fortnightly at the start of the year, neither Sky News nor Seven has been treating us to federal ReachTEL polls like they used to, and even the Fairfax-Ipsos poll has pared back its sample sizes in recent times from 1400 to 1200. I suspect we won’t be getting the normally-fortnightly Newspoll on Sunday night either, as these are usually timed to coincide with the resumption of parliament, for which we will have to wait another week. I can at least relate the following:
• The Guardian has results from a ReachTEL poll of Wentworth conducted for independent candidate Licia Heath, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 727. After exclusion of the 5.6% undecided the results are Dave Sharma (Liberal) 43.0%; Tim Murray (Labor) 20.7%; Kerryn Phelps (independent) 17.9%; Licia Heath (independent) 10.0% and Dominic Wy Kanak (Greens) 6.6%. The poll also comes with a 51-49 Liberal-versus-Labor two-party result, but this a) assumes Tim Murray would not be overtaken by Kerryn Phelps after allocation of preferences, and b) credits Labor with over three-quarters of independent and minor party preferences, which seems highly implausible. The poll also reportedly finds “as many as 52% of people said high-profile independent candidate Kerryn Phelps’ decision to preference the Liberals made it less likely they would give her their vote”, but this would seem to be a complex issue given Phelps’s flip-flop on the subject.
• The Guardian also has results of polling by ReachTEL for the Australian Education Union on the federal goverment’s funding deal for Catholic and independent schools, conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1261 respondents in Corangamite, Dunkley, Forde, Capricornia, Flynn, Gilmore, Robertson and Banks. The report dwells too much on what the small sub-sample of undecided voters thought, but it does at least relate that 38.6% of all respondents said the deal made them less likely to vote Liberal.
• Back to Wentworth, I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey, and took part in a mostly Wentworth-related podcast yesterday with Ben Raue of The Tally Room, along with Georgia Tkachuk of Collins Gartrell, which you can access below.
I read yesterday, via Sam Maiden, so sorta kinda authoritative, that Stuart Robert is worth $30 Million.
So, in other words, he’s a greedy grub.
RE BK’s link. A big Well Done to the Bludger who correctly surmised what the situation re Stuart Robert would be.
I realised that a friend’s talk of suicide (and murder; she didn’t think her husband could survive without her) was serious, and tried to find help. It took me something like ten phone calls to hospitals and mental health facilities – in the end, it was her local GP who took action. Along the way, I was abused for my apparent neglect (how had I let things come to this pass? why hadn’t I taken action sooner?) by someone who then didn’t have a solution to offer.
The most common advice was to ring the police, which seemed inappropriate – as indeed it was. All that she needed was an adjustment in her meds.
No fading curtains in Sydney. It’s cold, dark and gloomy and forecast to remain so, apart from 5 minutes of sun on Tuesday.
rhwombat says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 8:43 am
Rocket Rocket @ #15553 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 6:21 am
Cat
Yes that awkward time running around trying to work out which things have changed automatically! I have been fooled before, so now have my analogue watch next to bed to be sure.
.
I was caught out by my phone’s automatic daylight saving adjustment this morning.
I’m in Mt Isa at present, and have been getting up in the dark at ~05:30 to run in the relative cool of the gloaming (sunrise is ~06:20 this far west).
My phone alarm goes off at 05:30 and I groan out of bed to get ready. It seems dark – too dark, but my watch says 05:30 too, so it must just be me. As I’m stumbling out the door 20 min later, I realise that it’s too dark to see the snakes – something’s wrong. Then the penny drops: my watch is synced to my phone, which is still on Damn Southener’s time – it’s still dark o’clock for another hour. Cursing, I set the phone to God’s Time and stumble back to bed.
Nice 22 deg running subsequently though.
_________________
Odd that your phone did not twig that you were north of the border, and stay on non-daylight saving time.
How the Liberal Party are killing 2 birds with one stone and tying up the Lebanese Christian vote and getting into bed with Lebanese Australian developers:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/the-bishop-s-ring-catholic-leader-s-political-influence-alarms-20181005-p5080m.html
Re parabolic urine flows. In the ladies public toilets in Singapore there is always a urinal at kindy height with a plastic bee for the boys to aim at
Kavanaugh is the type of frat boy who would take liberties with drunk girls at parties. That he is being installed to stamp out access to legal abortion is the major reason his appointment is so wrong. I am not keen on entrenching privilege and racial inequality either
Meanwhile France is legislating to make marital violence a criminal offence
Steve777 @ #1104 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:57 am
I’m loving it! 🙂
Except for having to get up at 3.30am tomorrow morning to get my son to Sydney for an operation at Westmead Hospital. 🙁
C@t
Dontja lurve the photo from the article 🙂
https://static.ffx.io/images/$zoom_0.242%2C$multiply_1%2C$ratio_1.776846%2C$width_1059%2C$x_0%2C$y_37/t_crop_custom/w_780/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/f58709485110a9921c8c5398151b47cd92922be9
poroti @ #1109 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:59 am
I would have thought that the bishop would have been facing the other way as TA kissed his ring. 😉
Insiders: Peter van Onselen, Mark Kenny, and Pats Karvelas.
Yay PvO is on the Insiders panel!
Report due tomorrow – that could be interesting. I wonder what policy Scott will come up with to meet the authors’ expectations:
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/avoiding-climate-chaos-means-unprecedented-change-un-report/
Based on more than 6,000 peer-reviewed studies, the 20-page bombshell will make for grim reading when it is released on Monday.
“Leaders will have nowhere to hide once this report comes out,” said Jennifer Morgan, Executive Director of Greenpeace International, and an observer at the talks.
Morrison is always shouting.
Yay! Jim Chalmers is the interview. 🙂
The last line from Scummo in the video montage at the top of Insiders (in the context of him talking about – surprise, surprise – Bill Shorten:
“Vote for the Bill!”
So, Scott Morrison is taking the new GST legislation to the election but not the parliament!?! Who reads legislation in an election campaign!?!
Why people go on Alan Jones show is beyond me.
With regard to the current controversy regarding using the Sydney Opera House as a billboard, it might be instructive to recall “Cash for Comment”.
C@t – best wishes for your son.
Radio grab from Albo on SailGate (referring to the Opera House head, after her legitimate decision and calm, reasoned defence on air under intense verbal intimidation):
“She should just chill out.”
Zoomster there is a chance the figures for suicide would be better if the funding backed GPs to spend more time, and encouraging people to go there in the first instance. Some studies suggest the most effective intervention is seeing a GP and getting a script for SSRI medication.
Psychologists and school counsellors get the first take on every sad child or teenager at the moment.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 9:08 am
So, Scott Morrison is taking the new GST legislation to the election but not the parliament!?! Who reads legislation in an election campaign!?!
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Scummo is clearly kicking this can down the road, burying such legislation in a campaign in which – surprise, surprise – you’d need a microscope to catch a glimpse of it among all the garbage he’ll actually serve up to us.
Michael,
Exackerley!
Drink Pivovar Chříč beer. A good story……
……..nestled in the Bohemian hinterland, the Pivovar Chříč is not your average brewery.
For one thing, it is staffed almost entirely by mentally and physically impaired workers. For another, it diverts all its profits to funding a primary school.
Wheeling crates of beer from a cooling room, Vašek Stark acknowledged his debt of gratitude to the enterprise. Stark, 62, has resumed full-time work for the first time since he was 20, when his career as a specialist machine operator was ended by a road accident that left him with serious brain injuries
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/06/crate-expectations-is-this-the-noblest-brewery-in-the-world
Can’t wait to see LNP & ALP adds splashed all over the Opera House leading up to the next State & Federal elections; not to mention all the tobacco & alcohol adverts.
Jim Chalmers is striking exactly the right tone this morning: competent, focused, positive. If he gets a good platform for public prominence in the coming election campaign, this will yield VOTES for Labor!
😻C@tmomma 😻(Block)
Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 8:59 am
Comment #979
I trust that all will be well with your boy, and you.
Best wishes. 😻
Chalmers very positive, eloquent. Good work.
Socrates:
[‘AM
That doesn’t mean he hasn’t lied under oath. Just that a far right dominated government will give him a free pass on any trial.’]
While I’m no fan of Kavanaugh, underpinning criminal law is the presumption of innocence. Yes, Ford’s testimony before the JC was compelling, highly believable, but it wasn’t a criminal proceeding.
Jim Chalmers on the BBQ-stopper in current Australian politics: the price of homes:
“Housing affordability as a concern is not going away.”
Boy, is this true. In 1980, the median house price in Sydney was 4.5 times average annual full time earnings; today, even after a softening in house prices, it is more than 12 times.
Jim Chalmers has appeared as someone all over his facts on I this morning. Politicians fail to create a good impression more often than not. Good onya Jim.
Chalmers isn’t hard to look at either.
Government admits Bill Shorten’s childcare policy – which finally sees Australia catch up to policies around the world – is good for the country. They’re reduced to nitpicking over the cost. This from the crew spraying billions of dollars at multinationals and big banks in tax cuts, as well as unasked-for “donations” to the GBRF!!
Insiders panel & Cassidy highlighting how the Labor childcare policy is evidence based. Nice contrast to the “wing and a prayer” basis for much Coalition policy.
Michael
I do hope the MSM pick this up. As if the Coalition doesn’t waste ‘your’ money!
So Dixon says the ASX could be put under considerable selling pressure over the next 12 months by increasing interest rates in the USA
AND changes to Imputation arrangements in Australia
I would suggest that this contribution is written thru Dixon’s hip pocket as a Financial Advisor and the advice he has survived on selling people into tax arrangements which have had the advantage of the Imputation Credit rort used by self managed superannuants and others who can so arrange their tax positions (fully franked dividends whilst having no tax liability)
PvO & others emphasise how considered Labor’s positioning is right now, as a prelude to both enhancing their already-high chances of victory in the coming election, as well as setting themselves up for a successful time in government afterwards.
Karvelas states this period of unity in the Liberal party is just temporary until after the Wentworth by-election.
That video of Morrison praying was eerie and cringe worthy.
The SS Liberal
It has been a good Insiders panel this morning.
lizzie @ #1136 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 9:32 am
Exactly. They were prepared to give away $80 Billion of Taxpayers’ money to the already wealthy and corporates and multinationals.
Confessions says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 9:35 am
Karvelas states this period of unity in the Liberal party is just temporary until after the Wentworth by-election.
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Yes. But if this is their “unity”, what on Earth does their “disunity” look like???
Well said PvO re politicians who wear their religion on their sleeves inconsistently.
Agree with Karvelas that the religion thing will be a prob for ScoMoo after the 20th. If they keep sitting on that Ruddock report it will be a very bad look.
Looks like the word has gone out to Matty Cormann, ‘smile, smile, smile and smile some more until it hurts!’
Confessions says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 9:40 am
Well said PvO re politicians who wear their religion on their sleeves inconsistently.
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Snap!
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 9:43 am
Looks like the word has gone out to Matty Cormann, ‘smile, smile, smile and smile some more until it hurts!’
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The Liberal Party mail distributor mixed his mail up with Peter Dutton’s
C@tmomma @ #45957 Sunday, October 7th, 2018 – 7:46 am
Oh joy! Mind you on PB most “Blonde” is grey…