BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

The trendlines turn back slightly in the Coalition’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without lifting them out of landslide defeat territory.

New polls this week from Newspoll and Essential Research have moderated the post-coup surge to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead has narrowed from 54.9-45.1 to 54.0-46.0. This results in a gain of three seats for the Coalition on the seat projection, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland furnishing one seat apiece. We’re approaching the point where I will have enough Morrison-era leadership ratings data to resume tracking those measures again, but for the time being it’s still in limbo. Full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,490 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 29 of 30
1 28 29 30
  1. @Dio

    WWP

    “This I find very difficult to believe.”
    I’ve seen a teenager having her fifth abortion.

    Sadly, this does happen. In my (albeit limited) experience it is down to a few things: 1) Teenager wants to live by parents rules, but keeps slipping up, 2) Teenager is captured by a Germaine Greer type feminist / New-Age women’s health centre, believes that contraception is a dangerous and un-natural thing, and that telling the bloke “NO”, and using basically the rhythm method for contraception is the best thing ever (this happened to a friend of mine), or 3) Difficult home circumstances, or lack of education means that contraception is not available?

  2. Bushfire Bill @ #1397 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 8:50 pm

    For anyone who saw the tsunami video from Palu the other night, today’s updated prediction of “thousands killed” is not surprising.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/tsunami-was-twice-the-size-of-my-house-fears-for-thousands-as-quake-toll-climbs-20180930-p506zf.html

    I saw a BBC analysis of it tonight. Apparently, though the earthquake was no greater in intensity than many previous, it’s subsequent tsunami was directed down a narrow inlet, increasing the height of the tsunami waves. 🙁

  3. Dio
    Depends on the aim of the kick. I think you are referring to the grubber into the goal. The Roosters have developed a tactic to defuse grubbers

  4. Some background.

    When I was at Uni of Sydney in the mid sixties, doing Chem Eng, I volunteered at the Sydney Univrsity Settlement, in Darlington (near Redfern). Back then it was a very poor area, with many serious social problems. One of the ladies who came in there was Kath, a quiet person, with five children from 10 down in age. Her husband was an alcoholic, and thumped her regularly. She was suffering badly from ‘women’s problems’ subsequent to difficult childbirths, and the doctor attached to the settlement advised very strongly against her becoming pregnant again. But they were ‘good catholics’.

    Sue, who worked with us, went with her to visit the priest at St Vincent de Paul church, which Kath attended (not her husband). The ‘pill’ had just become available., and since Kath could not keep her husband away from her, they were seeking ‘permission’ for her to go on the pill. The priest abused them, told them that contraception was the devil’s work, and that Kath’s duty was to obey her husband in all things.

    Kath got pregnant again, died in childbirth from a massive bleed, and the kids were all put into church ‘homes’. This made me sad. I hate to think of their fates.

    Only my opinion, though.

    ps The priest in question was succeeded by ‘Father Ted’ Kennedy, a truly wonderful, decent human being, who wasn’t particularly godly, and had numerous run-ins with the dinosaurs at St Mary’s.

  5. “Interesting” Sunday night postings on Christian ethics!!
    For me, the fundamental aspect of the teaching of Jesus – as far as we can measure from the accounts written much later by people who weren’t there – was to tell a teaching story, or parable, and then leave it to his hearers to work it out in practice. There are very few commands, and most is like “Blessed are the peacemakers”.
    Much, much later, the hierarchy (inherited from the Roman military) decided that sexual matters were far more important than social justice – a complete reversal of most of the New Testament.
    As far as the “soul” is concerned – the whole idea came from Greek philosophy, not from any Jewish writings.

  6. I’ve seen a teenager having her fifth abortion.

    Such an extreme situation would be caused by unusually challenging life circumstances. It would be very unlikely to reflect a frivolous attitude towards abortion and it is not a useful guide to what the best public policy should be on access to abortion.

  7. @Yabba

    ps The priest in question was succeeded by ‘Father Ted’ Kennedy, a truly wonderful, decent human being, who wasn’t particularly godly, and had numerous run-ins with the dinosaurs at St Mary’s.

    ‘Father Ted’ Kennedy is still revered around here. Although St VdP in Redfern has been taken over by a neocatechumenal sect. The chalk writing on the from of the church “The aboriginal Christ is crucified every day in Redfern” to WTTE , was wiped about 10 years ago.

    An SMH article explains the clash of Catholic cultures in 2010:

    A few days later Father Clesio and his assistant priest, Miguel Zavarese, scrubbed from an external wall of the church a line of poetry that had been there for years, which refers to an ”Aboriginal Christ”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/two-catholic-worlds-collide-as-church-disagreement-deepens-20100118-mgt6.html

  8. Interesting story Yabba. Obviously the priest and the woman’s doctor were in error. The pill is allowed for medical reasons including the inadvisability of pregnancy and “women’s problems”. Catholic obstetricians also did a roaring trade in hysterectomies for women in this situation; the operation used to be called the Catholic pill

  9. I wonder why the ‘inadvisability of pregnancy’ doesn’t apply to 16 year olds who don’t know who they are or what they are doing?

  10. Absolutely loving State of Origin as one of the planets truly great sporting contests, having just watched that RL GF I can only say that AFL was the winner, and soccer, and cricket, and tiddly winks. That was awful to watch.

  11. Oakeshott Country @ #1421 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 9:25 pm

    Interesting story Yabba. Obviously the priest and the woman’s doctor were in error. The pill is allowed for medical reasons including the inadvisability of pregnancy and “women’s problems”. Catholic obstetricians also did a roaring trade in hysterectomies for women in this situation; the operation used to be called the Catholic pill

    Maybe now, I will take your word for it. The priest in question musn’t have got the email in 1963. When Sue and Kath came back they were both distraught. I won’t forget it. Sue was my girlfriend for a couple of years. It badly affected her.

    The only doctor Kath had was our visitor at the settlement, or emergency at Prince Alfred. No Medicare. Kath was struggling to feed her kids and herself. We used to feed them, and many others, with ‘stale’ bread from Gartrell White, and other donated stuff. Her husband worked on the garbage trucks. Used to go to the pub every afternoon and stumble home pissed.

  12. Given the trauma the right to lifers are creating there is probable fair reason for people not to be too tolerant of them. Only for that bunch are exclusion zones required.

    They have there right to their view, but no right to impose it on others.

    GG has the right to his view and others have other have the right to their view. Giving him a bollocking on a blog is a lot less offensive than the anti abortion crowd.

    And as for the bible, I read the bit where Lot slept with his daughters (Genesis 19:32-35 if your into bible porn) some guy offering to kill his son (Genesis 22, how you can get through that and not conclude Christianity is based on one screwed up god beats me), but I couldn’t find the 11th commandment, thou shalt not have an abortion.

  13. BK @ #1415 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 9:14 pm

    You know that makes you sound like an old person, right?
    C@t
    Even if I were half my age I would still think it was crap.

    Which is missing the point. I simply made the point of saying if you’d never even heard of them, bad or not, it makes you sound like one of those old people who say stuff like, ‘they just don’t make music like they used to in my day’. Which is never the case. Great music is made all the time. You just have to know where to look for it and you just have to be open to it.

  14. Nicholas
    ” Such an extreme situation would be caused by unusually challenging life circumstances. ”
    It wasn’t.
    “It would be very unlikely to reflect a frivolous attitude towards abortion”
    It did.
    “it is not a useful guide to what the best public policy should be on access to abortion.”
    True. The doctors were pretty forceful about her getting an IUD or Implanon or something other than the OCP. Still, you can’t force people to do that. Dunno how it turned out.

  15. And just because a teenager has had 5 abortions and uses it as an extreme form of contraception, doesn’t mean that other women should have none.

  16. C@t
    I completely agree. I was just correcting the comment that abortion is never used as birth control.

    On another matter
    “Labor has vowed to deliver a bigger budget surplus than the government”
    When was the last time Labor delivered a surplus? (PS Bill Shorten didn’t know)

  17. Before they introduced the current laws, the protesters in East Melbourne you walked past every day were all little old men

    Fortunately they are no longer there

  18. Yabba @ #1424 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 9:40 pm

    Oakeshott Country @ #1421 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 9:25 pm

    Interesting story Yabba. Obviously the priest and the woman’s doctor were in error. The pill is allowed for medical reasons including the inadvisability of pregnancy and “women’s problems”. Catholic obstetricians also did a roaring trade in hysterectomies for women in this situation; the operation used to be called the Catholic pill

    Maybe now, I will take your word for it. The priest in question musn’t have got the email in 1963. When Sue and Kath came back they were both distraught. I won’t forget it. Sue was my girlfriend for a couple of years. It badly affected her.

    The only doctor Kath had was our visitor at the settlement, or emergency at Prince Alfred. No Medicare. Kath was struggling to feed her kids and herself. We used to feed them, and many others, with ‘stale’ bread from Gartrell White, and other donated stuff. Her husband worked on the garbage trucks. Used to go to the pub every afternoon and stumble home pissed.

    This happened a lot around Stanmore in the days before it became trendy. Unmarried mothers had 3 choices:
    * A shotgun wedding. My mother’s choice.
    * A stay at the Unmarried Mothers Home in Annandale, where the Catholic order which ran it gave you virtually no alternative but to put the child up for adoption, or arrange a shotgun wedding.
    * Never get to the point of having the child and arranging a backyard abortion.

    This scenario also applied to poor but married women who couldn’t afford another mouth to feed. Due to similar circumstances to those described above.

    It was hardly a lifestyle choice. What it was was a life and death choice.

    It should never have to be that way.

  19. Diogenes @ #1429 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 9:55 pm

    C@t
    I completely agree. I was just correcting the comment that abortion is never used as birth control.

    On another matter
    “Labor has vowed to deliver a bigger budget surplus than the government”
    When was the last time Labor delivered a surplus? (PS Bill Shorten didn’t know)

    Looking for a cut out. Or, another Bill Shorten has questions to answer?

    Call Dr Diogs!

  20. Diogenes @ #1431 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 9:55 pm

    C@t
    I completely agree. I was just correcting the comment that abortion is never used as birth control.

    On another matter
    “Labor has vowed to deliver a bigger budget surplus than the government”
    When was the last time Labor delivered a surplus? (PS Bill Shorten didn’t know)

    The timing of delivering a Surplus is essentially irrelevant. It never should be viewed in that way. As economic circumstances should always be taken into consideration, such as the GFC that Labor had to deal with, and did so maginificently. As was agreed today on Insiders, Australia is just starting to get over the GFC hangover to be able to deliver a Surplus again. Although I’m of the opinion that the Budget aim should be simply to be in balance over the cycle. Big Surpluses mean that you aren’t dealing with Revenue correctly.

  21. Diogenes

    It is the responsibility of government to manage across the economic cycle – not to rack up surpluses

    And Global factors impact, such as the First Global Oil shock, Stock Exchange collapses and the lead up events to the S&L debacle and the sub prime lending crisis etc etc

    Unless you subscribe to austerity measures to restore confidence and recover the economy during times of economic stress – and we see how that works and what the result of such a response is, haven’t we

  22. And as for the bible being a good moral code:

    Slavery has been outlawed for good reason. (Exodus 21)
    Same sex marriage is now allowed for good reason (recently done to death)
    Apartheid is now frowned upon ( Acts 17:26 )
    Women can teach (timothy 2:12)
    I have already mention god requesting Abraham kill his son; and worse Abraham not telling him to get stuffed. seriously frowned on.
    Lot sleeping with his daughters seriously bad form.
    And on it goes.

    The bible should be rated PG. It’s the reason I read it to my kids; I didn’t want some religious nutter to use it to fill there heads with dam fool idea by reading a few select verses.
    I really wish someone would tell me why they worship such a self centered, brutal god. When I ask the seven day Adventis that come knocking they run away.

  23. Yep GG,
    Dio has a direct line to all the Lib talking points. The fact is that buying an election is all they have left. The idea voting for the Libs will be better for the budget denies basic maths.

  24. “Dio has a direct line to all the Lib talking points. ”
    I’ve got The Guardian bookmarked on Firefox. The story is on the front page. It’s kind of hard to miss.

  25. The surplus is a perfectly Keynesian aim, provided that it’s achieved when the economy is going up. In fact, the surplus is a way of cooling down an economy that could be overheating. In the current circumstances of Australia, if the conditions are given for a surplus, it is always the top 1% of the income distribution, the Big Companies and the Multinationals that should contribute with their taxes to achieve it, not the struggling lower income percentiles and the middle class.

    Bowen must be extremely careful about what is he going to do, because the right will always criticise him and the left is ready with harsh criticisms accusing him of being a Neoliberal. The coming Shorten ALP Government cannot afford to be simultaneously attacked from right and left….

  26. Why would it be a good thing for the federal government to force the Australian private sector into a deficit? That is what the LNP and the ALP are committed to. It is folly. The Howard Government did that in the late 1990s and early 2000s and it was a damaging policy. Households became overburdened by debt. Vast amounts of output and income were permanently lost during those years.

    The government needs to target real economic and social outcomes: full employment, price stability, sustainable resource use, a low degree of inequality of income and wealth.

    It makes no sense and it is counterproductive to target a particular sectoral balance. The sectoral balances are largely non-discretionary. They should be allowed to rise or fall to whatever level is needed at the time to achieve the government’s policy objectives.

    A federal government surplus is not a form of saving. It does not increase the federal government’s financial capacity. The government is not constrained financially; it is constrained by availability of real resources that are for sale in the Australian dollar.

    A federal government surplus in the context of a current account deficit means that Australian households and firms in aggregate will be in deficit (i.e. that sector will be spending more than it earns). Why would you want that?

  27. frednk @ #1440 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 10:08 pm

    When I ask the seven day Adventis that come knocking they run away.

    I ask them and their ilk “who wrote it?”. Have never received any answer other than ‘it’s god’s word’.

    I then refer them to 1 Samuel 15:3: “The Lord Almighty says ‘Now go and strike the Amalek and devote to destruction all that they have. Do not spare them, but kill both man and woman, child and infant, ox and sheep, camel and donkey.’ ”

    and Psalm 137, “Happy is he who repays you for what you have done, He seizes your infants and dashes them against the rocks.”

    Another goody, particularly liked by the authors of the US Constitution is: 1 Peter 2:18 “Slaves, submit yourselves to your masters with all respect, not only to the good and gentle but also to the cruel.”

    But abortion is wrong, and the Bible is true, every word. Just not in my lowly opinion, for what that’s worth.

    GG can point us the right direction to work out which bits are the favoured, must be obeyed bits, and which bits can be ignored.

  28. “Have never received any answer other than ‘it’s god’s word’.”

    You can’t have asked too many people then, primary school kids in Seventh-day Adventist schools all know that the books of the bible were written by their various authors as inspired by God, so any Adventist knocking on your door has that answer, but perhaps you were just being a smart arse and weren’t listening. I think I can guess why they left promptly, I would too.

Comments Page 29 of 30
1 28 29 30

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *