BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

The trendlines turn back slightly in the Coalition’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without lifting them out of landslide defeat territory.

New polls this week from Newspoll and Essential Research have moderated the post-coup surge to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead has narrowed from 54.9-45.1 to 54.0-46.0. This results in a gain of three seats for the Coalition on the seat projection, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland furnishing one seat apiece. We’re approaching the point where I will have enough Morrison-era leadership ratings data to resume tracking those measures again, but for the time being it’s still in limbo. Full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,490 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. ‘Oskeshott Country says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 8:12 pm

    BW
    Or maybe Christ was more tolerant than many of his followers’
    At the time? Beyond a shadow of a doubt, true.
    The range of tolerance now is probably far, far broader than it was then.

  2. @OC

    D&M for the faithful the soul is formed at conception. Abortifacients including IUDs are still murder

    Yep, and that is why, with the help of a just post Vatican II Catholic education, I found myself an unbeliever. But only in the supernatural stuff.

    I sometimes wondered why I was not religious like my father, when we agreed about everything else. But, I now realise, that when I go to this ALP meetings, and sign up to hand out on election day, even if I am going to get spat on, it is because I absorbed the secular parts off the social gospel that was so much a part of him.

  3. The extent of the abuse of nuns is unclear, at least outside the Vatican. Victims are reluctant to report the abuse because of well-founded fears they won’t be believed, experts told the AP. Church leaders are reluctant to acknowledge that some priests and bishops simply ignore their vows of celibacy, knowing that their secrets will be kept.

    However, this week, about half a dozen sisters in a small religious congregation in Chile went public on national television with their stories of abuse by priests and other nuns — and how their superiors did nothing to stop it.

    https://globalnews.ca/news/4359088/catholic-nuns-sexual-abuse-vatican-metoo/

  4. @BW

    Are the Roosters the team that everyone loves to hate?

    No that is Manly, but the Roosters come a close second, I am told.

  5. Doyley, some opinions are defensible. Others are ludicrous. The idea that all opinions have equal worth is ludicrous.

    Just my opinion.

    In my opinion, the Roman church’s opinion, (that Galileo’s opinion, that the earth and other planets orbited the sun, was so wrong that he should be expelled from society) was utterly, indefensibly wrong.

    I is my firmly held opinion that an organisation, that perpetrated, covered up, and enabled the sexual, physical and mental abuse of countless thousands of children over centuries, has no possible credibility when it purports to dictate to non-followers how they should live their lives.

    Just my opinion of course.

    I await your defence of their opinions, on Galileo, and on the Roman church’s moral ‘authority’.

    Any others who would like to add their opinions are, of course, welcome. GG willas usual, abuse, obfuscate, and dodge, just like Kavanaugh.

  6. “Are the Roosters the team that everyone loves to hate?”

    Roosters have a bit of a ‘silver tail’ image in a traditional working class game, like Manly. Well. Look who they elect as their local Federal reps – Turnbull and Abbott. Also, they and Manly have won lots of GFs, so they suffer from the tall poppie symbol as well.

    And also Melbourne, because they’re from Melbourne.

  7. D&M
    Yes, I am a Catholic fellow traveler. The ethics and social justice are a good guide to life but as for the mythical being and heaven and hell – forget it.

  8. We’re all entitled to our views of course (to state the obvious), but most of us don’t have the desire to spend every waking hour promoting them on a blog, unlike some others. IMO.

  9. I’m with Doyley.
    I’m pro-abortion but it’s a grey area. I’ve seen plenty of people who consider it as a form of birth control but plenty who are gutted by by it.

  10. Y
    What people ARE saying is that everyone here has the right to express their opinion and to have the reasonable expectation that people may disagree and will do so by discussing the opinions on their merits.
    This is entirely different by launching into personal abuse.

  11. D&M
    When I lost ‘the faith’ I seriously lost my way in life. It was traumatic.
    One of the ways I survived and revived was to accept that most of Christ’s teachings are actually a pretty good general guide to a good life well-lived. The parable of the Good Samaritan is not a bad guide to which party to vote for, IMO.

  12. Yabba,

    You are entitled to your opinion and I support your right to express it here and anywhere else you may so choose.

    Have a great night.

    Cheers.

  13. OC

    Yes, I am a Catholic fellow traveler.

    Great phrase. Gets me into trouble with my OH, who is the proud descendent of French revolutionary, strongly anti-clerical, stock.

    We actually have a fantastic open letter from a relative written in around 1920 (I think) , detailing said relative’s reasons for being a follower of secular humanism. Relative was from somewhere around Languedoc if I recall.

  14. Yabba
    It’s not just the Catholic church who are opposed to abortion. Hindus, some Christians, some Jews and some atheists are opposed.

  15. OC “Yes, I am a Catholic fellow traveler. The ethics and social justice are a good guide to life but as for the mythical being and heaven and hell – forget it.”

    That’s about where I am too.

  16. ‘adrian says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 8:25 pm

    Ha ha, please enlighten me on the ‘ethics’ of the Catholic church. What a fucking joke.’

    The ethics of the teachings are quite good, IMO.
    The practice of the institution is seriously wanting in parts.
    But if you think it is monolithic and all evil and all corrupt you would be seriously wrong.
    You could find this out by going out with the Vinnie’s teams.
    Or you could join the other RC volunteers at Oznam House, for example.
    Night, after night, after night.

  17. Just sayin’ but the half time PB discussion during yesterday’s AFL GF was a damned sight better than the turgid religulous discussion the NRL half time has thrown up here.

    And for the record, Brad Fittler is as hot as I remember him from my teenage years.

  18. Antony Green has called it at 8.26pm with a 15% swing to Eastern Suburbs Chooks.

    Most pollsters have got it wrong again.

    Now just waiting for a handfull of postals to be counted.

  19. As with SSM and assisted dying – I have no view

    The only view I have on such issues is that it is personal choice

    And personal choice is personal choice

    I would like to think those personal choices are well thought out including by seeking appropriate counsel and support – including the full recognition of possible consequences

    So I am neither for or against on such issues – but would vote in favour because to vote otherwise means I am making a decision for others and I refuse to put myself in such a position

    It is not my right

    And, Nath, as we settle in to watch Rake, put yourself on a spinning wheel and disappear into a distant space in an adjoining universe

  20. Adrian
    The ethic of treating others as you would want to be treated.
    This includes not being as dismissive of others’ beliefs as you are
    The fact that the institutional church frequently fails in this is shameful but as a fellow traveler I do not have to support or justify the institution.

  21. @Adrian

    Ha ha, please enlighten me on the ‘ethics’ of the Catholic church. What a fucking joke.

    It was the 60s. You just had to be there for Vatican II to experience the peace and love breaking out. It was like a thousand flowers blooming. Ended with the election of John Paul II. The revolution was terminated, and even some of my very, very Catholic older relatives were horrified at how JPII dragged the Church back into the dark ages, particularly in regards to divorce and birth control.

    Note: A conservative medico from QLD was part of Vatican II, and worked day and night to make sure that contraception would NOT be approved by the church. However, after Vatican II, there was a live and let live attitude about contraception, and even hints that of a woman felt she could not easily bear more children, then this was fine.

    JPII changed this, going for a more rigid church, while realising that the church would shrink, or so I am reliably informed.

  22. Steve777 @ #1376 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 6:32 pm

    It’s OK to ridicule other peoples’ football teams though, although it might be unadvisable in some bars after the game.

    I’ll never forget sitting in a bar in Newcastle having insisted the bartender turn on the TV so I could watch the Carlton v Essendon final circa 1999(?) I think. I was the only person in the bar and my shouting and yelling as Carlton won a thriller drew curious Novacastrians into the premises to see what all the fuss was about.

    That bartender should’ve tipped me!

  23. D&M
    It amazed me that JPII got such a great press while he single handedly destroyed any relevance the Catholic Church had in the 20th Century
    I guess his role in the fall of the Iron Curtain made him a cold war hero

  24. OC / Steve /D&M:

    I think Marilyn Manson put it best:

    “We don’t like to kill our unborn,
    We need them to grow up and fight our wars.”

  25. Boerwar,

    Re Crusher tackle,

    Grabbing a player around the neck / shoulder area from behind, lifting your legs off the ground and falling to the ground dragging the tackled player down with you. Huge pressure on the tackled players neck.

    In my opinion it is a dog act.

  26. William:

    I don’t think I could justify my monthly contribution as a work related expense, but things could always change I guess.

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