BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

The trendlines turn back slightly in the Coalition’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without lifting them out of landslide defeat territory.

New polls this week from Newspoll and Essential Research have moderated the post-coup surge to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead has narrowed from 54.9-45.1 to 54.0-46.0. This results in a gain of three seats for the Coalition on the seat projection, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland furnishing one seat apiece. We’re approaching the point where I will have enough Morrison-era leadership ratings data to resume tracking those measures again, but for the time being it’s still in limbo. Full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,490 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

  1. Peter King needs to commission a fresh poll as to how he would have gone.

    Of Peter King, a judge reportedly said:

    “As productive as first year Arts Student with glandular fever”.

  2. Confessions: “He is? I’ve never heard this before.”

    Well, perhaps not in WA. But when I used to spend a bit of time with the Aborigines of western NSW (admittedly a few decades ago), he was rather strangely venerated as the one ok White historical figure: and I’ve been told that this could be found in Vic and Queensland a bit as well. Of course, Ned fought the law and the law won, which is a story that many Aborigines of western NSW could personally relate to.

  3. When I was still religously observant my least favourite day was Good Friday.
    The rites were interminable, the kneelers hard and unforgiving,
    My theory is that life SEEMS longer for religiously observant persons.
    The rest of us are having fun and then time…

  4. “shellbell says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 6:21 pm
    Peter King needs to commission a fresh poll as to how he would have gone.”

    It would be interesting to see a poll including Turnbull as a “what if he stayed” candidate.

  5. BK (if you’re out there),

    I was sitting in a Katoomba café at 4.30 this afternoon when there was a sudden change in the air. Dark clouds gathered on an otherwise fine day. Ice and frost started forming on the windows. And in she walked. Your muse, the ice queen, Sophie Mirabella with her partner trailing behind. Frightening. Truly frightening.

  6. meher:

    If the Ned Kelly story resonates only with western NSW Indigenous people then a national day focused on him isn’t likely to be better than the current day in terms of inclusiveness!

  7. Angela Shanahan interprets the Kavanaugh process as being a proxy fight about abortion. I have to say that, whatever else she might write in this article, she has a point.
    Gillard was right to warn about abortion rights way back when.
    There can be no doubt that there is a concerted attempt to deny women in the US control over their bodies.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/brett-kavanaugh-resistance-is-partly-about-abortion/news-story/43d8dc5c831a56299d43a8aa18720222

  8. NRL is so blokesville. Why are the retiring players only paraded around with little boys? At least in the AFL the girls get equal billing.

  9. Boerwar:

    The Republicans deliberately filibustered Obama’s pick because the long game for them is the Supreme Court.

    Apparently the next pick for Trump if Kavanaugh doesn’t get up is a woman who would without a doubt vote to overturn Roe v Wade.

  10. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 4:42 pm

    Nath,

    You really are having a rough trot.

    Laid up with health issues, Collingwood losing the GF and all you’ve got to look forward to is the probability that this time next year Shorten will be PM.

    Quite a 12 months!
    ________________________
    Thanks for the kind words Barney.

  11. With the SA and WA colonies having not derived from the east coast colonies, no amount of pretending will ever make any establishment of the east coast penal colony event or thing relevant to the whole of white Australia even if you are a racist scumbag that doesn’t care about the first Australians.

  12. WeWantPaul @ #1266 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 6:43 pm

    With the SA and WA colonies having not derived from the east coast colonies, no amount of pretending will ever make any establishment of the east coast penal colony event or thing relevant to the whole of white Australia even if you are a racist scumbag that doesn’t care about the first Australians.

    And so it shouldn’t appeal to most Australians who have emigrated here from all over the world either, by that inane reasoning.

  13. Agree Confessions

    And until then we can have a Public Holiday on the 29th September bring “The Day Collingwood Lost The Grand Final” Day

    That won’t upset anyone as Australia Day does not upset anyone now (except a particular demographic of a certain skin colour)

    Australia Day used to be a Monday, so a long weekend and Adelaide hosting the 4th Test

    So Kanhai and Ken Mackay and Lindsay Kline and Dennis Lillee in his first Test – and Ray Lindwall recalled in 58/59

    It was the Australia Day long weekend – and every 4 years with Ashes Tests District cricket had the weekend off

    Back to banks and where my reference to Costello and 4 Pillars seems to have silenced the opinions

    Banking is a risk industry – so there was an attraction to the “Rivers of Gold” superannuation fund management and Insurance industry where risk was with the client

    So with superannuation they charge at a percentage of the balance maintained regardless of performance and with Insurance – well read the fine print

    So banks sought out these business models – money for old jam

    And along came Costello scratching their backs

    The irony now is that these very same banks are now lining up to sell these businesses

    But the damage has been done

    All down to the Conservatives and who they govern for

    Any debate?

    Or has all the nonsense been shut down

    My submission to the RC covered many compliance and risk issues (I have long argued including on the inside to my eventual cost) including principally reinstating 6 Pillars (and a process) and the removal of Personal Covenant Clauses in bank security documentation

    As a public submission it has been acknowledged but not considered – as yet!!

  14. “As productive as first year Arts Student with glandular fever”.

    That’s not very nice, shellbell. I thought you’d be a little better than that(?).

    How are your briefs going?

  15. Boerwar @ #1261 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 6:35 pm

    Angela Shanahan interprets the Kavanaugh process as being a proxy fight about abortion. I have to say that, whatever else she might write in this article, she has a point.
    Gillard was right to warn about abortion rights way back when.
    There can be no doubt that there is a concerted attempt to deny women in the US control over their bodies.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/brett-kavanaugh-resistance-is-partly-about-abortion/news-story/43d8dc5c831a56299d43a8aa18720222

    Or, to protect unborn babies being murdered.

  16. @Confessions

    Is this the rugby league GF? Where are all the people, the stadium is practically empty!

    You are not from around these parts, are you? Sydney-siders have never been that big about attending live sport, except perhaps for the New Year’s Day Test Cricket. With my mother from Melbourne and my father from Sydney, it was amazing listening to their conversations about the differences b between the states.

    Do WA people go to live sport a lot?

  17. Greensborough Growler
    Or, to protect unborn babies being murdered.
    ________________________________
    You want to really upset people on here huh?

  18. “And so it shouldn’t appeal to most Australians who have emigrated here from all over the world either, by that inane reasoning.”

    No it shouldn’t, the whole we found a bit of it on the east coast, tens of thousands or more years after other people actually found it, story shouldn’t really appeal to anyone with a brain, but yeah certainly if you came to any part of Australia after 1901, you know when Australia came into being, the we got here second or third or fourth to a bit of it near Sydney stories / myths etc should be irrelevant to you.

  19. GG
    I believe I know where you are coming from, having been in the same place for a lengthy part of my life.
    What the fundies want is the good old days.
    Rich women will fly interstate or to Canada.
    Poor women will be back to the backyarders the knitting needles.

  20. BW
    With Good Friday at least we had prayers for the conversion of the Jews until that commo Vatican Council got in the way
    I understand that Pope Nazi allowed them to be optionally reintroduced

  21. ‘Oskeshott Country says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 7:02 pm

    BW
    With Good Friday at least we had prayers for the conversion of the Jews until that commo Vatican Council got in the way
    I understand that Pope Nazi allowed them to be optionally reintroduced’

    Well, yes, you are right.

    However it was not so much the Church Militant as the Church Interminable.

  22. Boerwar @ #1263 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 6:05 pm

    Angela Shanahan interprets the Kavanaugh process as being a proxy fight about abortion.

    Besides control of both houses of Congress and the presidency, there are two other things the Repubs are going for: One is a complete ban on abortion (and contraception, if possible), and the other is to extend the presidential pardon to cover state crimes and allow self-pardon by the president.

    Abortion is to appease their base, and extending the pardon power is how they impose tyranny.

    Only Kavanaugh will give them both.

  23. Do WA people go to live sport a lot?

    I can’t speak for Perth because I haven’t lived there for over a decade.

    But in Albany the footy fields have dedicated parking so you can park your car around the perimeter and watch the local game from your vehicle. We had our first stadium finished last year and it too includes ringed parking for cars to back up to so people can sit on the trays of their utes and watch the game. We had a WAFL game earlier this year and photos of the crowd showed spectators with couches on the backs of their utes watching the game.

  24. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 7:04 pm

    nath @ #1271 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Or, to protect unborn babies being murdered.
    ________________________________
    You want to really upset people on here huh?

    So, do you have a problem with truth?

    _________________________________
    Aren’t you like a rabid ALP supporter?

    Stick your views on abortion which no doubt stems from your stupid religion firmly up your backside.

  25. nath @ #1278 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    I always felt the NRL did better entertainment than the AFL ever since Tina Turner. Smaller ground more intimate I suppose.

    I always felt that the “entertainment” was another idea imported from America that we don’t need.

    The FA Cup has no need for “stars” who’ve gone past their use by date to remind us all they’re still alive, albeit irrelevant.

  26. Significant numbers of Labor supporters are practicing Catholics and are firmly opposed to abortion. I disagree with them but I don’t have any difficulty with them being Labor folk.

    We are a broad interface between secular and religious folk.

  27. Boerwar:

    Yes, tooting for goal. Or as the NAIDOC Week footy game between the Indigenous All Stars, tooting whenever a family member got hold of the ball!!

  28. I was sitting in a Katoomba café at 4.30 this afternoon when there was a sudden change in the air. Dark clouds gathered on an otherwise fine day. Ice and frost started forming on the windows. And in she walked. Your muse, the ice queen, Sophie Mirabella with her partner trailing behind. Frightening. Truly frightening.
    ____________
    Darc
    That must have been a harrowing experience!

  29. nath @ #1281 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 7:06 pm

    Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 7:04 pm

    nath @ #1271 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Greensborough Growler
    Or, to protect unborn babies being murdered.
    ________________________________
    You want to really upset people on here huh?

    So, do you have a problem with truth?

    _________________________________
    Aren’t you like a rabid ALP supporter?

    Stick your views on abortion which no doubt stems from your stupid religion firmly up your backside.

    Hit me with your best shot!

    It’s pathetic!

  30. It is one of the burdens of federation what when you get a weak minded person from Sydney as PM that then looks to build up the kind of racist bullshit national pride around Australia day for partisan purposes that he wouldn’t even be smart enough to find something that could even unite all racist white Australians. What hope have we got.

    As I said the other day, when we growup and become a republic, recognise the first Australians in the constitution and stop torturing and killing kids and innocent adults who we had international obligations to protect then we should find a real day to celebrate.

    In the meantime a small minded not inclusive racist faux nationalistic (not even the whole nation) celebration is us. It is who we are, small weak racist scared and pretty stupid.

  31. GG:

    ‘Or, to protect unborn babies being murdered.

    Please stop it; you’re a RWNJ on this particular issue, women having right to decide thereof. And the emotive verb “murdered” does zilch to enhance your disjointed view. You would’ve done well in the DLP.

  32. At least the NRL are doing better pre-match entertainment with Gang of Youths – crapping on the bored Black-eyed Peas sans Fergie and Barnsie.

  33. My pick for Australia Day is when the treaty with our Indigenous community is signed.

    But, most importantly, it should be tied not to a date, but to the Monday closest to that date. We can then really celebrate being the Land of the Long Weekend.

    It should also be in beach weather.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *