BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

The trendlines turn back slightly in the Coalition’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without lifting them out of landslide defeat territory.

New polls this week from Newspoll and Essential Research have moderated the post-coup surge to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead has narrowed from 54.9-45.1 to 54.0-46.0. This results in a gain of three seats for the Coalition on the seat projection, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland furnishing one seat apiece. We’re approaching the point where I will have enough Morrison-era leadership ratings data to resume tracking those measures again, but for the time being it’s still in limbo. Full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,490 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. The other tidbit that sort of floated past on Insiders was that the mention that Liberal players had agreed to hold their public fire until after the Wentworth election on quotas.
    If so, the discipline on that is holding up quite well.

  4. With deregulation of the banking industry how many Overseas banks established here – and how many remain?

    Why did they leave?

    The fault with Banking was down to Costello as treasurer

    And specifically the 6 Pillars policy of Keating (separating Insurance and Funds Management) becoming 4 Pillars

    When, with Keating as treasurer ANZ made a bid for NMLA, a bid negated because of the 6 Pillars legislation – so ANZ finished up with NMRB only, being the banking operation not the Insurance and Fund Manager business

    With 4 Pillars and Costello we saw Insurance and Fund Manager Companies bought by banks

    Look at One Path, look at MLC and the List goes on and on

    THAT is where the problems started

    PRIOR to that there were problems with the lending book and the growth of that lending book including products such as Foreign Currency Loans Non Trade and Fixed Interest lending products – and the property value correction courtesy of the S&L fallout

    But at that time, in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s the 6 Pillars policy was in place

    Charging dead people for Insurance products, cross selling and superannuation fund issues ARE THE RESULT OF COSTELLO AND THE DISMANTLING OF THE KEATING 6 PILLAR POLICY – and date from then, exclusively and including market practices then engulfing the likes of AMP and IOOF

    Howard and Costello have left a disaster at every turn – and still we pay

  5. {Religiously observant people live longer than atheists.}
    Mainly because they know they are going to Hell!.
    Or are too stupid to understand Evolution of the species!.

  6. DG

    It seemed to me that the Roosters… do they really have a female team called the Roosters? Shouldn’t they be the HENS…anyway the team that sort of looked like it was wearing Rooster colours… THAT team was trying to set some sort of GF record for inflicting penalties on itself.

    I don’t have much of an idea about RL but it looked as if the refs were getting it right. Who knows?

    As for the winners, THAT is not at all clear to me because I watched the game with the sound muted, but I suspect it was the Broncos. The winners sort of looked like they were wearing Broncos gear but I always thought a bronco was an untamed male feral horse and perhaps THAT team should have been called the Mares or the Fillies. I really, really don’t know.

  8. MarkJacka‏ @themarkjacka · 3h3 hours ago
    MarkJacka Retweeted Insiders ABC

    “Australia Day is Australia Day & must always remain Australia Day as it has for the last 24 years.”
    I’ve some clothes in my cupboard that are older than Australia Day.
    #auspol

    So have I, Mark. Still wearable, too.

  11. Lizzie
    Longer tradition in NSW
    The Rum Corps got on the turps on the 20th anniversary 26 January 1808 and arrested the Governor

  13. “@ Boerwar

    The Cowgirls??”

    No, there’s already a Cowboys team (North Qld), so the name is sort of taken.

    The ‘Sydney Roosters’ (Easts) are often called the ‘Chookies’. That would cover mens’ and women’s ‘ teams.

    We could have the Wests Tigresses.

    Don’t know whether there’s a Bulldogs women’s ‘ team or what they’re called.

  14. Boerwar @ #1206 Sunday, September 30th, 2018 – 3:09 pm

    DG

    It seemed to me that the Roosters… do they really have a female team called the Roosters? Shouldn’t they be the HENS…anyway the team that sort of looked like it was wearing Rooster colours… THAT team was trying to set some sort of GF record for inflicting penalties on itself.

    I don’t have much of an idea about RL but it looked as if the refs were getting it right. Who knows?

    As for the winners, THAT is not at all clear to me because I watched the game with the sound muted, but I suspect it was the Broncos. The winners sort of looked like they were wearing Broncos gear but I always thought a bronco was an untamed male feral horse and perhaps THAT team should have been called the Mares or the Fillies. I really, really don’t know.

    To comply with the new politically correct zeitgeist, surely the Roosters and Broncos have to be renamed as the Non-Gender Specific Chickens and the Non-Gender Specific Horses respectively.

  15. “S777
    Wouldn’t you enjoy watching Shoulder Charge go out with a bang?”

    Haven’t been following closely enough to have a view. May the better team win.

  17. Mr Sheridan is deeply unhappy about the Brexit process. He writes that there are seven distinct possibilities:

    ‘
    …There are now at least seven distinct possibilities. One, a no-deal Brexit. This could be fine if achieved in an orderly manner but the EU, whose irresponsibility is boundless, will have every incentive to make it chaotic to punish Britain. Two is a Canada-style free trade agreement with the EU. This is the best option, which Johnson favours, but again it would require the EU behaving reasonably.

    Three is that the EU finally accepts Chequers, which has Britain following EU rules on goods but still technically, though probably not really, able to negotiate outside trade agreements, as well as control immigration. The EU has rejected this and it would be a bitter result for Britain anyway as it means accepting all the disadvantages of EU rules without having the input to them which EU membership formerly gave.

    Four is some even more humiliating version of Chequers with extra concessions from Britain. Five is total surrender. Britain stays in the customs union and the single market but is technically not an EU member. Britain would effectively cease to be a self-governing democracy and become a formal colony of Brussels.

    Six is a second referendum to stay in the EU. But why would the EU let Britain stay under the old terms? It would probably have to join the euro and pay bigger financial contributions.

    And seven is a so-called “blind Brexit” in which formal departure takes place next March as scheduled, but the two-year transition period means real negotiations on the final outcome are postponed, while Britain nonetheless pays its $70 billion divorce bill and loses all leverage.

    There is no evidence that May can produce a good outcome, although the chaos is so great that anything is theoretically possible, even a good outcome under May.

    But that would be blind luck. This crisis was entirely avoidable.’

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/tories-dogged-by-a-bad-brexit/news-story/97620de5608e474957aa78bb8ff7e7bf

  18. Actually I worked on a State Election campaign in Townsville in the 2000’s. The Labor MP for Thuringowa had Jonathon Thurston “kick start” his election campaign. Thurston was still early on his road to greatness. He comes from very solid Labor Stock. Hope he keeps to the correct path.

  20. Steve777: “Easts is a lot of Sydneysiders’ least favourite team behind Melbourne and Manly, so many will feel about tonight’s game a bit like I felt about the Dutton-Morrison contest – don’t want either side to win.”

    The phrase I like to use is “it’s a pity there can only be one loser.”

  21. Does Sheridan always think it’s boundlessly irresponsible to respond to incentives? I thought that was the foundation of the free market economics that he otherwise seems pretty keen on.

  22. “Australia Day is Australia Day & must always remain Australia Day as it has for the last 24 years.”

    It’s only since the Bicentennial that Australia Day was ever considered any sort of big deal. Before then, it was a bit like tomorrow’s holiday (in some states) – a day off from work, go to the beach or visit family/friends. It wasn’t held on the day but on the following Monday. It was during the school holidays, marking their end, so schools weren’t involved. What public observances were held were low key and dull as ditchwater.

    And anyway, it appears that the Deputy PM doesn’t know what it commemorates in any case.

  25. William
    A bit all over the shop.
    The EU is being totally wicked and irresponsible and Corbyn would be a total disaster.
    Ludicrously, Sheridan started off by describing May as a ‘Lioness’. He now reckons that she combines ‘weakness with stubborness’.

  27. Ah, Australia Day, that sacred, dignified holiday where we celebrate our country by getting shitfaced, eating snags, and listening to indie pop on Triple J.

  31. Re the Australia Day “tradition”: the date that perhaps ought to be commemorated is 7 February 1788, which is when Phillip’s royal commission was read to all inhabitants of the colony and he was thereby formally installed as Governor. Up to that date, he was still formally Captain of the Sirius and the colony was formally only an onshore landing party of the First Fleet.

    Interestingly, until the 1920s, the Victorian Government – which wasn’t terribly interested in the history of that nasty convict-ridden place to the north of the Murray – used to commemorate Discovery Day on 19 April (the day the Endeavour sighted Cape Howe) with events in schools and government offices. Then Anzac Day came along, and the two commemorations were considered to be too close together and Discovery Day fell out of favour.

    I reckon accepting 7 February as the correct date, but then ignoring it and instead celebrating 26 January as the anniversary of the Rum Rebellion would be kind of neat.

    Another out there idea would be to celebrate the date of the construction of the Eureka Stockade, an idea that JF Archibald, the famous editor of the Bulletin, toyed with. Or we could have a celebration day around the life of Ned Kelly, who is a longstanding hero of many people in Indigenous communities. (I personally wouldn’t favour this, because I reckon Kelly was a cruel thug, not to mention a racist, but it would truly go down well with many Aboriginal people.)

    I like Australia Day in some ways, because it is a tradition among the emancipated convicts and, later, their Australian-born descendants, that dates back to the early 19th century. They never saw it as a day of conquest, but as the day that they or their forebears were brought here against their will.

    But I reckon we need to shake up the status quo and try to create a new way of celebrating the nation we live in which is more inclusive of the people who were here first.

  32. Asha Leu says:
    Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 5:38 pm
    Ah, Australia Day, that sacred, dignified holiday where we celebrate our country by getting shitfaced, eating snags, and listening to indie pop on Triple J.

  33. I’d prefer Australia Day to be January 1. It recognises the day we got our own constitution and became the Commonwealth of Australia.

  39. meher baba says Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 5:47 pm

    Or we could have a celebration day around the life of Ned Kelly, who is a longstanding hero of many people in Indigenous communities. (I personally wouldn’t favour this, because I reckon Kelly was a cruel thug, not to mention a racist, but it would truly go down well with many Aboriginal people.)

    I always thought the hero worship of Ned Kelly was an Eastern States thing. I’ve never really heard much support for the Kelly myth in WA. As far as I was concerned, he was just some bushranger who became famous by turning ploughshares into armour (wouldn’t the world be a better place if people were doing the reverse?).

  40. Oskeshott Country says Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 5:57 pm

    May 9th: Opening of the first Commonwealth Parliament

    Sounds like a good idea to me.

    Failing that, perhaps go back to a Monday holiday.

  43. Or we could have a celebration day around the life of Ned Kelly, who is a longstanding hero of many people in Indigenous communities.

    He is? I’ve never heard this before.

  45. 26th Feb is the date A) It would be a summer holiday B) First Whitey in Australia C) It will keep Boerwar quiet(ish) what with Willem Janszoon being Dutch and all

  46. Just imagine what Ned’s counterpart would have been today – a fringe outlaw biker busted for some minor amphetamine drug deal? Heavied by the cops. Goes berko. Ambushes a couple of undercover D’s. Goes on a stick em up road trip with a couple of brothers/mates? Has a police informer murdered. Has an ambush of a swat team involving a home made armoured car and stolen Army RPGs foiled. Brought to justice.

    A worthy icon?

    Just saying.

  49. Just imagine what Ned’s counterpart would have been today – a fringe outlaw biker busted for some minor amphetamine drug deal? Heavied by the cops. Goes berko. Ambushes a couple of undercover D’s. Goes on a stick em up road trip with a couple of brothers/mates?

    Or buys a strawberry farm and sticks sewing machine needles into the product that is then distributed across the country.

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