BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor

The trendlines turn back slightly in the Coalition’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, without lifting them out of landslide defeat territory.

New polls this week from Newspoll and Essential Research have moderated the post-coup surge to Labor on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, on which Labor’s two-party lead has narrowed from 54.9-45.1 to 54.0-46.0. This results in a gain of three seats for the Coalition on the seat projection, with New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland furnishing one seat apiece. We’re approaching the point where I will have enough Morrison-era leadership ratings data to resume tracking those measures again, but for the time being it’s still in limbo. Full results from the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,490 comments on “BludgerTrack: 54.0-46.0 to Labor”

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  1. From the previous thread.

    Callinan’s appointment was meant to be in accordance with Fisher’s desire for a C conservative.

    He was and contemporary associates will say he was duller than your ordinary HC judge.

    He did, however, take the court with him on progressive interpretations on evidence in criminal matters and rejected workchoices on State’s rights grounds.

  2. So Sleazy Scott Morrison let Malcolm Turnbull and Josh Frydenburg take all the heat over the Great Barrier Reef Foundation $444 Million lump sum Grant? When it was his idea all along!?!

    The terms of Malcolm Turnbull’s $444 million Barrier Reef grant were set by Scott Morrison, who as treasurer insisted the money not go to a Commonwealth agency. By Karen Middleton.

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2018/09/29/exclusive-morrison-set-reef-grant-terms/15381432006927

    He’s a rabid Right Wing Small Government ideologue! Get rid of him, Australia! We are better than that! No wonder he is moving toot sweet to merge SBS and the ABC!

  3. Avenatti dares GOP to jam through Kavanaugh vote: ‘Going to thoroughly enjoy embarrassing you’

    Attorney Michael Avenatti issued another warning for the Republican Party on Friday: Jam through a vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at your own peril.

    “Warning — if the committee advances the nomination this afternoon, my client and I are going to thoroughly enjoy embarrassing Chuck Grassley, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and all of the other GOP members on the committee this weekend when her story is told and is deemed credible,” he wrote.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/avenatti-dares-gop-jam-kavanaugh-vote-going-thoroughly-enjoy-embarrassing/

  4. Kavanaugh pal Mark Judge agrees to cooperate with FBI

    Brett Kavanaugh’s friend and alleged accomplice Mark Judge has agreed to cooperate with the FBI in investigating the accusations against the men — but requested that agencies do so “confidentially.”

    According to Dr. Christine Blasey Ford’s testimony, Judge was present and at times participated and laughed when Kavanaugh assaulted her.

    Julie Swetnik, a third Kavanaugh accuser who is represented by Stormy Daniels’ attorney Michael Avenatti, alleged that Judge and the Supreme Court nominee facilitated her gang-rape in the 1980’s.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/kavanaugh-pal-mark-judge-agrees-cooperate-fbi/

  5. Fox News’ Chris Wallace predicts ‘more Kavanaugh allegations’ coming if GOP allows vote delay

    A very worried Chris Wallace told Fox News that re-opening the FBI investigation into the sexual assault allegations hovering over Brett Kavanaugh only spells trouble for the Republicans. He predicted more allegations would come out, and that Democrats would inevitably drag out any probe in an effort to stop his confirmation to the Supreme Court.

    “Time is an enemy of this nomination,” Wallace said. “These allegations kept coming in about Brett Kavanaugh and if there is a week delay, I don’t want to be cynical about this, but I bet there will be more allegations.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/fox-news-chris-wallace-predicts-more-kavanaugh-allegations-coming-if-gop-allows-vote-delay/

  6. Bill Palmer – GOP leadership agrees to Jeff Flake’s demand for FBI investigation into Brett Kavanaugh

    Trump just announced he’s ordered an FBI investigation into Kavanaugh. Republican Senator Jeff Flake has managed to succeed in one of the most strangely played gambits in the history of the Senate. Trump will surely ask Brett Kavanaugh if he wants to go along with the FBI investigation or if he wants to drop out.

    How Kavanaugh responds is anyone’s guess. Between the multiple accusations of sexual assault and rape, the multiple times Kavanaugh has committed perjury this month, the lies he might have to risk telling the FBI in the hope of derailing the investigation, his gigantic personal debts and alleged gambling habits, and the other skeletons in his closet, Kavanaugh may conclude that if the FBI begins investigating him, he’ll end up in prison, and thus decide to drop out before the FBI can get involved. On the other hand, if Kavanaugh drops out now, he’s basically admitting in the court of public opinion that the accusations against him are true – though the court of public opinion alone doesn’t have the power to put someone behind bars.

  7. C@tmomma
    With Morrison looking after the bottom line in the 2019/2020 budget it suggests that the LNP’s intention has always been to stretch the LNP term of office as long as possible, including a half Senate election next year, massive sweetners in the 19/20 budget and a late 2019 election.
    My biggest concern is the deadbeat apathy being shown by voters no longer surprised by the mistruths, fraud and feather bedding by this government and their user friendly cohorts within the media.
    The allocation of public monies is no longer coherent nor transparent. Blatant obfuscation is now the norm, the allocators and receivers of public monies beyond the historically accepted mores.
    What about envoys you wouldn’t trust to run a chook raffle!

  8. On the GOP’s agreement for an FBI investigation (a mini one however) into the allegations about Kavanaugh, the two Senators who forced it met the evening of the two hearings.

    Nevertheless Jeff Flake has said he will still vote for the nominee, presumably FBI investigation notwithstanding.

  9. ‘fess,
    The only thing standing between Trump being charged with anything, as we know, is the fact that he is a Sitting President and that the Republicans presently control both Houses of Congress. Once that goes, look out Donald! He better duck!

  10. shellbell: “Callinan’s appointment was meant to be in accordance with Fisher’s desire for a C conservative. He was and contemporary associates will say he was duller than your ordinary HC judge.”

    Except for his penchant for writing crime novels which, while they certainly weren’t very good, were notable for featuring quite a bit of sexual content.

  11. A telling graphic.

    VoxVerified account@voxdotcom
    4h4 hours ago
    Both Ford and Kavanaugh fielded questions from lawmakers and prosecutor Rachel Mitchell. But only Ford made an effort to actually answer every question. https://bit.ly/2N9dp5o #KavanaughConfirmation

    :large

  12. C@tmomma

    We now know that Morrison has hidden behind MT & JF over the ridiculous GBR grant.
    Were they just lazy and stood back while he made decisions? Since he’s an advocate for a coal economy, what else has he done?

    He’s now promoting the merge of SBS and ABC.

    IMV he’s completely untrustworthy and MUST be defeated.

  13. lizzie,
    Scott Morrison is being shown to be slippery and devious. As are a lot of Conservative politicians the world over at the moment, in order to achieve their conservative agenda, and not averse to bells and whistles and political circus acts in order to bamboozle the electorate into voting for them.

  14. C@tmomma: “We could almost call the latest PM, ‘Smoke and Mirrors Morrison’.”

    Middleton’s story certainly sounds to me more like a case of good old-fashioned budgetary smoke and mirrors – practiced by all governments all over the world in all eras of human history – than any sort of ideological crusade on the part of ScoMo to put government money into the hands of the private sector.

  15. Here’s a very good analysis of Kavanaugh’s testimony yesterday by Phillip Bump:

    As he began his questioning of Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh on Thursday, Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) asked Kavanaugh about a point of procedure in criminal trials.

    “As a federal judge, you’re aware of the jury instruction falsus in omnibus, are you not?” Blumenthal asked. “You’re aware of that jury instruction?”

    Kavanaugh said he was, but he deferred to Blumenthal on a direct translation.

    “False in one thing, false in everything,” Blumenthal replied. “Meaning in jury instructions that we — some of us as prosecutors have heard many times, is — told the jury that they can disbelieve a witness if they find them to be false in one thing.”

    Blumenthal’s point was that the exceptional hearings centered on the credibility of Kavanaugh and his accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, who alleged that she’d been assaulted by Kavanaugh at a house party in 1982 when both were in high school. Over the course of his testimony, though, Kavanaugh offered several answers to questions that stretched or misrepresented the truth.

    Here are those responses — and some for which he’s incorrectly been accused of having been untruthful — in chronological order.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/09/28/heres-where-kavanaughs-sworn-testimony-was-misleading-or-wrong/?utm_term=.7d6f8c62cfdb

  16. meher baba,
    I have read Karen Middleton’s story and it obviously makes the point that Morrison, Turnbull and Frydenburg had the choice of giving the money to the Queensland State Labor government, or to the GBR Foundation, and they chose the latter. Sounds like an ideological stance to me.

  17. meher baba

    I agree that budgets are always factually cloudy, but there seems to have been little concern for any practical outcomes for the GBR.

  18. Dio

    Yes you are quite right that something happened to Ford. However when she FIRST raised it at therapy sessions she did not name him, and it seems that she only put a name to the guy later on.

    That is the whole problem with the story. Ford is unclear as to dates and initially even years late 80s, early 80s and then AFTER meeting with lawyers narrowed it down to 1982.

    Now that I just cannot buy. if you had such an event you would know which year it was, what you were wearing, what you had done earlier in the day and how you got home. You would know more or less was it before or after Friend Ys party, the day before or after you had a row with mum, dad, friend, boyfriend etc. If you cannot remember those sort of details then you probably cannot reliably remember who was at the party or who tried to rape you.

    OK lets get it from the perspective of a girl: You would know whether the event took place BEFORE or AFTER you lost your virginity. Now that puts a pretty clear timeline in place as a first marker. Then you would almost certainly know whether the event was before, after or between boyfriends A & B and before or after memorable events eg concert, family weddings. Maybe that is how she narrowed it down to 1982 but somehow I think she would always have known this and not given vague answers at first.
    .

  19. Smoke and mirrors and $444 million! How much ?
    Complete disregard for the GBR, voters, the Federation of Australia, Queensland and transparency. It is not acceptable under any circumstances.

  20. Very interesting Grand Final today. No idea who will win. Is all about which team handles the occasion. I don’t expect Collingwood to play as well as they did last week and Richmond were poor and the Eagles will still be hurting from 2015 and have more firepower up forward.

    Eagles by 21 points.

  21. Cat

    I thought that article pretty unconvincing BUT I think we can all agree that the High School year book does not reflect well on Kavanagh and friends. Yes he was avoiding the truth re the year book, especially about the reference to the girl, but did publicly apologise too her.

    However I have better things to do than argue the merits of a RW Catholic Right to Life possible appointment to the US Court. He was a pretty awful pick to start with – too ideological. He clearly was a preppy brat.

  22. Flake confirms the FBI report of the investigation could change his mind about voting for Kavanaugh. I think it goes without saying that would be the case for all of them.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Michael Koziol has some explosive stuff here on the ABC crisis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dear-directors-explosive-dossier-reveals-bitter-war-between-michelle-guthrie-and-abc-board-20180928-p506p7.html
    Leigh Sales, says the public broadcaster’s board “has some serious questions to answer” over the dumping of managing director Michelle Guthrie and its handling by former chairman Justin Milne.
    https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/serious-questions-leigh-sales-lashes-abc-board-as-silence-continues-20180928-p506o1.html
    Bevan Shields opines, with good reason, that the ABC board is spectacularly failing the same test its journalists rightly apply to others in power.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-abc-board-is-spectacularly-failing-the-same-test-its-journalists-rightly-apply-to-others-in-power-20180928-p506p8.html
    Jack Waterford begins his long contribution in the ABC issue with, “Malcolm Turnbull is a gift that keeps giving to the Labor opposition. Scott Morrison’s ongoing efforts to be all things to all people were again derailed this week by the ABC implosion, which saw the loss of its board chairman and its managing director, and a powerful smoky stench as Coalition jihadists ran for cover.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-s-abc-chickens-home-to-roost-20180928-p506lw.html
    Quentin Dempster has written a very good piece on the politics of the ABC and how Shorten needs to muscle up in advance of the election.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/would-anyone-miss-the-abc-if-it-was-switched-off-20180928-p506lj.html
    Margaret Simons writes that the ABC board is weak and lacks legitimacy but it should not be sacked.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/sep/28/abc-board-is-weak-and-lacks-legitimacy-but-it-should-not-be-sacked
    Laura Tingle says that neither organisation would probably like the comparison, but this week has revealed that the Coalition government and the ABC have had a bit more in common than they might think in recent times.
    https://www.outline.com/fKyuyP
    Mike Seccombe has written a more forensic discussion on the ABC saga.
    https://www.outline.com/vyDakT
    Pater Hartcher writes that with identity politics there’s no American fad too stupid for Australia to ape, we’d better pay attention to what’s going on. Australian political parties are starting to flirt with it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-destructive-american-fad-australia-needs-to-avoid-20180928-p506mg.html
    In similar vein Sion Cowan says that partisan infection is spreading to Australia.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/partisan-infection-is-spreading-to-australia-20180927-p506cg.html
    The Australian has got hold of a text from the new acting chairman of the ABC board that congratulated Emma Alberici for the article she wrote that upset the government so much,
    https://www.outline.com/Ey5YDY
    Ross Gittins explains how economists have lost their fear of minimum wage rises.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-economists-lost-their-fear-of-minimum-wage-rises-20180928-p506mb.html
    In a long essay Paul Kelly writes that we are facing the final crisis of liberalism and democracy — a society unable to transmit its virtues to the next generation because it cannot agree on those virtues.
    https://www.outline.com/nuLtFh
    Peter van Onselen examines the internal pressures Shorten would have to manage in the event of him becoming Prime Minister.
    https://www.outline.com/dRzUR9
    In an informative contribution Crispin Hull tells us that in the past week or so, a couple of publications showed that inequality is higher than recognised officially.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/expect-more-instability-unless-we-address-inequality-20180927-p506e5.html
    Adele Ferguson is disappointed with the body of the first royal commission report. She says it means the financial institutions and many executives that have been sweating bullets for the past few months have been given a stay of execution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/greedy-banks-and-inept-regulators-but-not-much-more-20180927-p506fm.html
    The AFR invites us to read between the lines of royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne’s interim report and we will find that Australia’s financial institutions have been enjoying their own version of Shangri-La.
    https://www.outline.com/pgFSYF
    Gareth Hutchens tells us why Kenneth Hayne’s banking royal commission report is a game-changer.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/sep/28/why-kenneth-haynes-banking-royal-commission-report-is-a-game-changer
    Michael Pascoe thinks that the Royal commission could prove the downfall of corporate watchdog ASIC.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2018/09/28/royal-commission-downfall-asic/
    Royal commissioner Kenneth Hayne has found AMP may have made false representations about the independence of a controversial report prepared by law firm Clayton Utz that was at the centre of the resignation of former chairman Catherine Brenner.
    https://www.outline.com/rRBtfr
    Elizabeth Knight laments that among financial circles a noteworthy feature of the Royal Commission was that one of Australia’s largest, smartest but most aggressive financial institutions, Macquarie Group, sailed through the hearings with barely a mention.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/the-banking-scandal-the-royal-commission-didn-t-cover-20180928-p506o4.html
    The Conversation’s Peter Martin examines the report and finds that things are so bad new laws might not help.
    https://theconversation.com/banking-royal-commissions-damning-report-things-are-so-bad-that-new-laws-might-not-help-104058
    Eryk Bagshaw reports on Frydenberg’s and Plibersek’s reactions to the royal commission report.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/treasurer-josh-frydenberg-basic-standards-of-honesty-trashed-by-banks-20180927-p506g4.html
    Paul Bongiorno writes bout how uncommitted voters mark down the Liberals for shambolic disunity and self-centred rivalries and how this might play out in Wentworth.
    https://www.outline.com/vkw2EE
    The healing has passed. What was old is young again; refreshed, enlivened. The winter of discontent is behind us and the lush, green shoots of springtime have sprung. Michael Sainsbury reports on Scott Morrison and The Renewables.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/the-renewables-scomos-heroes/
    Jane Caro identifies the enemies of public schooling. She concludes that it’s not that Morrison doesn’t care about public schools, the people who teach in them or the kids who attend them. It’s worse than that. He sees them as his ideological enemies.
    https://www.outline.com/EryZnf
    Dom Knight looks at all the issues around the arguments about Australia Day.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/would-turnbull-go-ballistic-over-hottest-100-i-don-t-think-so-20180928-p506ms.html
    Richard Ackland writes the if ever there were a business riddled with log-rollers with access to the top levels of government, it is the aged “care” industry. And what fabulous credentials are on offer.
    https://www.outline.com/aftD7A
    Embarrassingly, Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions climb again amid climate policy vacuum.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/28/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-climb-again-amid-climate-policy-vacuum
    Due to an unstable roster of ministers, Australia’s climate and energy policy has been suffering, writes Giles Parkinson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/climate-and-energy-policy-collapsing-from-government-shuffling,11939
    Karen Middleton reveals that the federal government’s decision to grant $444 million in Great Barrier Reef protection funding as a lump sum to a private foundation came after then treasurer Scott Morrison insisted it was the only way to avoid the grant delaying a return to surplus and undermining the government’s economic credentials.
    https://www.outline.com/Aacs7e
    Cole Latimer examines the effects of the end of cheap petrol.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/don-t-fill-up-top-up-cheap-petrol-is-over-but-not-everyone-is-hurting-20180927-p506by.html
    Nick O’Malley explains the puerile culture war battering Ramsay Centre negotiations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/puerile-culture-war-battering-ramsay-centre-negotiations-says-sydney-uni-boss-20180925-p505yc.html
    Rupert Murdoch’s power goes beyond that of his media empire. Dr Binoy Kampark illustrates the man’s potent political influence.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-plague-on-democracy–rupert-murdoch-malcolm-turnbull-and-demagoguery,11940
    The FBI has been given a week to look into the Kavanaugh allegations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/flake-makes-dramatic-intervention-as-senate-panel-backs-kavanaugh-20180929-p506s6.html
    Today’s nomination for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/gruesome-details-revealed-into-how-mother-and-daughter-died-at-the-hands-of-daniel-holdom-20180928-p506qv.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe goes inside the ABC boardroom.

    A few from Mark David.



    Broelman goes to the ABC.

    Zanetti has his say on the ABC board.

    Jon Kudelka and the last straw for the bankers. Nice!
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/fd005bc2b73a8f925a8218ac78295377
    More in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-september-29-2018-20180928-h160ct.html

  24. confessions: “Both Ford and Kavanaugh fielded questions from lawmakers and prosecutor Rachel Mitchell. But only Ford made an effort to actually answer every question.”

    I would have thought that would be a pretty common pattern in any courtroom or other circumstance in which you have an accuser and an accused. An accuser needs to be totally open in order to be believed: if they act evasively or refuse to answer any questions, their credibility is instantly destroyed. An accused person – even if they are completely innocent – needs to be very measured in their responses for fear of saying something that might be used against them.

    Sure, Kavanaugh was a bit evasive about his drinking habits, but anyone would be when you can see that the senators opposing his appointment were trying to push him towards admitting that he could have drunk so much at a party at the time that he might have forgotten what he did.

    That’s a line of questioning which I would see as very much on the boundary of what I would consider to be fair. Blasey Ford described a scene in which she was pounced on, dragged into a room, and attacked by a man who was trying to remove her clothes while laughing and exchanging jokes with his friend. Another currently uncalled witness is accusing Kavanaugh of having deliberately spiked the drinks of girls and then queued up with others to have a turn with them while they were unconscious. To me, these alleged behaviours sound calculated and not like those of someone who is on the verge of passing out through having consumed too much alcohol. I doubt very much that the line of questioning we saw around Kavanaugh’s alcohol consumption would ever be permitted in court.

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to promote the cause of Kavanaugh: I’m prepared to believe that the world will be a better place without him on the Supreme Court (and I don’t reckon he will be appointed now). Nor am I trying to impugn Blasey Ford, who has been very brave in coming forward and – while some people are certainly using her testimony to advance political aims – I don’t think she was motivated by politics: to me, she is a woman trying to exercise the demons of her past who saw the news about Kavanaugh’s nomination as making it imperative for her to come forward at last.

    But what standard of proof are we looking at here? Certainly not beyond reasonable doubt, and perhaps not even balance of probabilities. The events described took place 36 years ago. On the evidence presented so far, a criminal conviction would be well-nigh impossible. Are we going to have a new legal standard that otherwise uncorroborated testimony from a single witness is going to be enough to determine someone’s guilt? It starts to take us towards the system that once operated in Eastern Bloc countries in which the denunciation of someone by a friend, relative or neighbour was considered enough evidence to convict them.

    As I’ve posted often before, I don’t like witch hunts: even those being conducted for the best of motives. With all of its many faults, I strongly favour the British-style legal system we have in Australia: the presumption of innocence, and all that goes with it.


  25. phoenixRED says:
    Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 6:46 am

    Phoenixred, Was Ford raped? If not how did she escape when door was bolted and Mark Judge was standing guard while Kavanagh was all over her.?


  26. C@tmomma says:
    Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 7:19 am
    ‘fess,
    The only thing standing between Trump being charged with anything, as we know, is the fact that he is a Sitting President and that the Republicans presently control both Houses of Congress. Once that goes, look out Donald! He better duck!

    I read that Republican Congress will having hearings on Clinton emails in October to fire up the base.

  27. c@tmomma: “I have read Karen Middleton’s story and it obviously makes the point that Morrison, Turnbull and Frydenburg had the choice of giving the money to the Queensland State Labor government, or to the GBR Foundation, and they chose the latter. Sounds like an ideological stance to me.”

    Or a political one, Queensland having a Labor Government. Or perhaps there was even an issue that a grant of this size would have triggered various COAG formulas that would have ended up disadvantaging Queensland in other ways.

    Most likely ideology, politics and perhaps COAG issues were all factors in the decision.

  28. meher:

    Ford herself never wanted her allegations to become public, and has said previously she only came out once the media started reporting about her. I said at the time it was inevitable there would be other women come forward, such is the nature of these things. I do not think that women speaking publicly about them experiencing teenage sexual abuse is a witch hunt – after all do we characterise those who were assaulted by catholic priests as such?

    It’s true that a confirmation hearing is not a courtroom, however the minute there were doubts about Kavanaugh’s suitability (and these doubts surfaced before those relating to sexual assault), the confirmation process should’ve allowed for deeper examination. But Republicans were intent on ramming him through and consequently have found themselves where they are now.

    I still think Kavanaugh will be confirmed, unless the FBI can corroborate the allegations. But Republicans will ensure the terms of the investigation are extremely limited both in time and in scope. What happens after he is confirmed is that the SCOTUS will be further tainted as a partisan institution, and questions will surround any cases Kavanaugh works on that might relate to his experience during his confirmation hearings.

  29. Ven @ #35 Saturday, September 29th, 2018 – 8:20 am


    phoenixRED says:
    Saturday, September 29, 2018 at 6:46 am

    Phoenixred, Was Ford raped? If not how did she escape when door was bolted and Mark Judge was standing guard while Kavanagh was all over her.?

    * She alleges she was sexually assaulted and escaped, through an unlocked but closed door before anything worse could happen. Mark Judge was watching and laughing and Kavanaugh and Judge were drunk and CBF was not. Which probably explains how she could outwit them at such a terrifying time.

  30. If the voting public don’t mark the LNP down at the next election, whenever the LNP decide to have a election, banana republic, monarchy or whatever, spiffsville frontier we remain.
    Union Royal Commision
    Banking commission
    ABC
    Darwin Harbour
    GBR
    Murray Darling
    NBN
    Paris Agreement
    Churches
    Coal industry
    Electricity
    Water/drought
    Debt/deficit
    Nothing to see here, everyday a grand final!
    What odds that Morrison gets rolled before we have an election?

  31. dtt: “Yes you are quite right that something happened to Ford. However when she FIRST raised it at therapy sessions she did not name him, and it seems that she only put a name to the guy later on. That is the whole problem with the story. Ford is unclear as to dates and initially even years late 80s, early 80s and then AFTER meeting with lawyers narrowed it down to 1982.”

    While I don’t like the process, I don’t think these are valid arguments against her. Most people often can’t remember the exact date of even quite major events in their lives, including the years in which relationships began and ended. I don’t think it invalidates her story at all.

    And I think that, when your recollection is that someone as important in American society as Kavanaugh attempted to rape you, I think you’d be reluctant to tell anyone their name: even your therapist or even your husband. People could easily not believe you, seeing it as some sort of way of drawing attention to yourself.

    I don’t think it’s fair to dispute Blasey Ford’s testimony on these grounds. I would never go so far as to say that someone wouldn’t subject themselves to an ordeal like this unless they were telling the truth (which, apropos of nothing, is an argument often used by refugee advocates in regard to unauthorised boat arrivals). People can do all sorts of unexpected things for all sorts of reasons, and they can definitely also have false memories.

    But I watched her testimony, and she came across as a woman who was honestly describing an experience that she vividly recalled as having happened to her at the hands of Kavanaugh. It was a “party” at which there was apparently only a handful of people present. It seems to me quite credible that the experience did happen to her as she described it. Before I saw her testimony, I felt that she might have been someone with vague memories of something who had been encouraged and coached by other people with political motives. But that’s definitely not how she came across.

    My problem with it all is that, no matter how credible a witness Blasey Ford might be, what she presented yesterday doesn’t to my eyes constitute sufficient proof to underpin any sort of judicial, parliamentary or administrative action. At the end of the day, it’s simply one individual accusing another individual. Now, if Mark Judge or others are prepared to give corroborating evidence to the FBI, then we are in a totally different space.

    Anyway, I should leave it alone, as I think it’s all a moot point: I never expect to see Kavanaugh sitting on the Supreme Court. It’s all gone too far now.

  32. Sarah Huckabee Sanders tweets..

    Statement from President @realDonaldTrump:
    “I’ve ordered the FBI to conduct a supplemental investigation to update Judge Kavanaugh’s file. As the Senate has requested, this update must be limited in scope and completed in less than one week.”

  33. Morning all. Thanks BK (and Cat). So ScumMo had his grubby paws on the $400m GBRF funding giveaway. What a responsible treasurer he was!

    I should call him ScamMo instead of ScumMo.

    Also I still think there must be more to come out on Morrison and Fifield’s role in sacking Guthrie. As I said before, weeks passed between Turnbull’s knifing by the potato and muppet/cabbage patch kid factions in the Liberal party. Yet the sacking still went ahead. Now we know how politicised he was, Milne must have spoken to Fifield and probably ScumMo in that time. Sacking Guthrie was going to be controversial. No way an experienced Operator like Milne would have done it without checking with ScumMo and Mitch first.

    As for Fifield, why has he not already resigned? He cut funding, stacked his own board, picked the MD, then watched it all implode. He is responsible.

  34. Good morning all,

    Interesting story from Karen Middleton re the allocation of the reef money.

    meher,

    I always read your posts with interests and you have raised a number of issues this morning with one or two,I think, still needing answers from the government

    why not allocate the funds directly to the CSIRO and or the Great Barrier Reef Marine Authority if concerns were in the mix re COAG issues

    Why the GBRF ? No tender, no application for funds from the organisation before the money was given to it during a 90 minute meeting.

    Again, why not give the money to the CSIRO and or a number of other government and private organisations that already had the structures in place to allocate and use the money effectively ?

    “Many questions still to answer” as members of the CPG are often heard to say.

    Cheers and a great day to you.

  35. MSNBCVerified account@MSNBC
    57m57 minutes ago
    .@RichardEngel investigates the ties between a major Trump campaign donor and Russia.

    Learn more by watching “On Assignment with Richard Engel” this Sunday at 10 p.m. ET on @MSNBC. #OnAssignment https://nbcnews.to/2OhUkm5

  36. Confessions: “Ford herself never wanted her allegations to become public, and has said previously she only came out once the media started reporting about her. ”

    She wrote about the allegations to both the Washington Post and to a Democratic congresswoman, asking that her letters be kept private. If she hadn’t wanted to be identified, she should have written anonymous letters (but, of course, these would have been ignored).

    Blasey Ford – even though she had revealed her identity – had no corroboration and little provenance (yes, she could have proven that she moved in Kavanaugh’s circles at the time, but so did presumably hundreds of other teenagers). For all the Post or the congresswoman could possibly know, her claims might be the product of a highly imaginative or diseased mind.

    In order for her accusations to be of any use to the Washington Post or the congresswoman, her identity need to be revealed so that she could be compelled to come forward with her story publicly and hopefully jog the memories of others.

    Given the stakes involved in the Kavanaugh appointment, this was inevitably going to happen by hook or by crook.

    For a professor, she has shown herself to be extremely gullible in thinking that her identity would be kept secret, especially as she wrote to two different people: thereby providing plausible deniability if either of them were to leak it.

  37. Laura Tingle’s article in the AFR (linked by BK) also appears in ABC online
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-29/coalition-and-the-abc-have-more-in-common-than-they-might-think/10318720

    She pulls no punches regarding the L/NP and Murdoch and his “compliant journalists”.

    All media organisations have been facing savage cuts in funding so the ABC is hardly unique in that regard.

    But other organisations have not been subjected to that plus at least two inquiries further aimed at constraining their activities — a competitive neutrality review and an efficiency review — and a relentless political assault on its journalism.

    Of course, the governing party’s membership has also voted to privatise the ABC.
    The virulence of anti-ABC feeling in some parts of the Coalition sometimes defies logic. Since joining the ABC in May, I’ve been criticised by ministers over pieces that have actually appeared in the Financial Review, not on an ABC platform, because they displayed my “ABC ethic”.

    And all this has played out against the backdrop of an unrelenting assault on the ABC by News Corp papers which assign compliant journalists — or those not in a position to say no — to pursue controversies about the broadcaster which are often so ludicrous as to be laughable.

  38. On Kavanaugh, I do not believe his denials either. Apart from Ford seeming sincere, Kavanaugh had too much confected rage. Why? I think he deliberately worked himself up into rage to seem sincere. But he overdid it and came across fake.

    The other point where he lost me was when he mentioned his church, wife and children. All standard conservative themes. But he didn’t get angry that they were being dragged through this. He used them as props to make himself look like the victim.

    Finally, despite the rage and denial, he never called Ford a liar. If she was lying, and his career is on the line, he would have called her on it. He didn’t call her a liar, because he knew she wasn’t lying.

    Still overall I thought the initial overreaction by Kavanaugh was the tell.

  39. Worth watching for?

    [MarkJacka‏ @themarkjacka · 18h18 hours ago

    Hey @JoshFrydenberg, I’d suggest you don’t take up Poker for a living because you have a “tell” & it is that every time you lie your right eyebrow lifts.
    It’s odd but very telling.
    #auspol]

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